Week 4 NCAA Football Picks - The Chart

[nep1293]

Last Weeks Record
Official Picks (14-11 , 56.00%)
All Over 50% Picks (25-25 , 50.00%)

Yearly Record
Official Picks (42-33-1 , 56.00%)
All Over 50% Picks (73-69-2 , 51.41%)


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Here are the Win/Loss Records by Percentage. They will vary from the initial records. I went back through the first 3 weeks and worked out all of the kinks.

52% and up seems to be very strong plays. 50%, 51% and strangely enough, 61% and up, are the only real weak links.
Every little bit of information helps. I want to give it a few more weeks before I start recommending games below the 55% plateau. But i think these are fascinating numbers.

50% (2-12)
51% (8-11)
52% (8-7)
53% (9-4-1)
54% (8-8)
55% (6-4)
56% (6-4)
57% (7-6)
58% (8-2)
59% (5-2)
60% (4-2-1)
61% (2-3)
62% (0-1)
63% (0-2)
64% (0-1)

[nep1293]

The 3 games at 50.00% go to the home teams by tiebreaker. I won't be playing them so it doesn't really matter to me.

WEEK 4 PICKS
Texas A&M @ Miami, FL (-3) .....51.29%
Oklahoma @ Tulsa (+20.5) .....57.80%
Syracuse @ Louisville (-37) .....60.82%
Illinois @ Indiana (+2.5) .....50.13%
Duke (+11) @ Navy ..... 52.63%
Baylor @ Buffalo (+5.5) ..... 52.96%
Kent St @ Akron (+4) ..... 50.70%
Army @ Boston College (-30.5) ..... 57.47%
Miami, OH (+11.5) @ Colorado ..... 52.63%
Ball St @ Nebraska (-21.5) ..... 58.47%
Air Force (+10) @ BYU ..... 52.70%
Washington @ UCLA (-5) ..... 54.07%
Georgia (+4) @ Alabama ..... 58.38%
Florida @ Mississippi (+21.5) ..... 57.49%
Northwestern @ Ohio St (-21.5) ..... 58.47%
Penn St @ Michigan (+3) ..... 56.60%
Texas Tech (-6) @ Oklahoma St ..... 60.81%
Michigan St @ Notre Dame (+14) ..... 54.35%
Memphis @ UCF (-7.5) ..... 59.96%
Georgia Tech @ Virginia (+4) ..... 50.70%
Colorado St @ Houston (-7) ..... 50.00%*
Arizona (+17) @ California ..... 52.74%
Northern Illinois @ Idaho (PICK) ..... 61.28%
Temple @ Bowling Green (-21) ..... 58.47%
East Carolina @ West Virginia (-25) ..... 55.02%
Iowa St (-3.5) @ Toledo ..... 52.20%
North Carolina @ South Florida (-12.5) ..... 50.68%
Maryland (+3.5) @ Wake Forest ..... 61.33%
Clemson (-8.5) @ NC St ..... 51.02%
Marshall @ Cincinnati (-23) ..... 59.14%
Kentucky @ Arkansas (-7) ..... 50.00%*
New Mexico St (+17) @ Auburn ..... 52.74%
Connecticut @ Pittsburgh (-7) ..... 50.00%
Wyoming (-3.5) @ Ohio ..... 52.20%
Rice @ Texas (-38.5) ..... 60.14%
Washington St @ USC (-24.5) .....56.94%
South Carolina (+16.5) @ LSU ..... 51.64%
Iowa @ Wisconsin (-7.5) ..... 59.96%
San Jose St (+3.5) @ Utah St ..... 61.33%
SMU @ TCU (-19.5) ..... 51.73%
Purdue @ Minnesota (+13.5) .....54.40%
Utah (-8.5) @ UNLV ..... 51.02%
Oregon (-17) @ Stanford ..... 54.01%
Oregon St (+11) @ Arizona St ..... 52.63%
Florida International @ Kansas (-30) ..... 57.47%
Troy @ Louisiana-Lafayette (+10.5) ..... 55.66%
Florida Atlantic (-6.5) @ North Texas ..... 60.81%
Arkansas St @ Tennessee (-18.5) .....50.03%

[BuddyBear]

I like Texas myself....

[onlooker]

I am leaning on one with you and one against you. I am looking at UCF and Utah State.

[nep1293]

I am leaning on one with you and one against you. I am looking at UCF and Utah State.

To me that Utah St game looks like Temple-Buffalo from 2 weeks ago. I dont know if I could give points with Utah St.

[Sucker4parlays]

Nep...I have been following this chart with great interest. Was it surprising to you that the 60%+ plays have a losing record so far? Also, I see you are from PA as well. What part? I am about 10 minutes east of Gettysburg

[nep1293]

Nep...I have been following this chart with great interest. Was it surprising to you that the 60%+ plays have a losing record so far? Also, I see you are from PA as well. What part? I am about 10 minutes east of Gettysburg

I live outside of Philly , Bucks County, NE burbs

The problem with a lot of the over 60% plays is that they are in games which have point spreads of 5 TD's or more. The percentages don't have as much data behind them as a spread that is fairly routine. I am surprised that they haven't been hitting, but that is why strictly going by the % isn't the best strategy. Just 1 or 2 losses in those games will make the percent fluctuate very wildly week to week. You can tell that from this weeks big spread games. Last week and the week before they were in the 62-64% bracket, this week Texas and Louisville are in the 60% section

But looking at those games I do feel we are on the right side. Syracuse and Rice have been 2 of the worst teams in football and at least on paper, should get crushed.

[Sucker4parlays]

Thanks for the response. I guess I should have figured that out. Still, the system is looking pretty impressive to date. As per your initial post of playing games over 55%, if you throw out the high-lined games and the ones below 55% and play the ones 55%-60% you are hitting at a 63% clip.

[nep1293]

Yeah, I'm very pleased with the numbers so far. The first few weeks are the toughest so getting through them with a solid profit makes me think we're in for a good year. Keep those fingers crossed

[pags11]

GL to you this week nep...

[nep1293]

GL to you this week nep...

Appreciate it Pags, GL to you too!

[White_Tiger]

Ride on UCF this year they really good. I'm at the game last week and they really play hard. Could be b/c of the new stadium effect.

[VolinArizona]

GL - I wussed out the last 2 weeks, but am following along.

[nep1293]

12-10 on the week, small profit but it beats losing $$$. The Maryland game was brutal but Florida Atlantic was a little lucky so it evens out.

Time to move on to week 5!!