Week 3 NCAA Football Picks - The Chart

nep1293 · 09-10-07, 11:28 AM

Week 3

West Virginia @ Maryland (+15.5) .....55.08%
TCU (-8) @ Air Force .....51.08%
Oklahoma St @ Troy (+10.5) .....55.73%
Illinois @ Syracuse (+10.5) .....55.73%
Temple @ Connecticut (-30.5) .....58.98%
Virginia (+3.5) @ North Carolina .....60.99%
Buffalo @ Penn St (-34) .....54.30%
Mississippi @ Vanderbilt (-5.5) .....54.18%
Mississippi St @ Auburn (-13.5) .....56.42%
Central Michigan @ Purdue (-20.5) .....56.31%
Cincinnati (-8) @ Miami,OH .....51.08%
Ohio (+17.5) @ Virginia Tech .....53.32%
Iowa (-16) @ Iowa St .....53.49%
Toledo @ Kansas (-22) .....58.93%
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois (-14.5) .....57.50%
Army @ Wake Forest (-21.5) .....57.87%
Tennessee (+8) @ Florida .....50.83%
Notre Dame (+9.5) @ Michigan .....51.51%
Utah St (+47) @ Oklahoma .....63.73%
Fresno St (+16) @ Oregon .....51.95%
Pittsburgh (+8) @ Michigan St .....50.83%
Ohio St (-3.5) @ Washington .....50.49%
Texas @ UCF (+20) .....55.99%
Louisiana Tech @ California (-33.5) .....50.72%
UCLA @ Utah (+12.5) .....55.10%
Ball St @ Navy (-5.5) .....54.18%
Akron (+11.5) @ Indiana .....52.89%
Southern Mississippi @ East Carolina (-1).....52.32%
Western Michigan @ Missouri (-20.5) .....56.31%
Idaho (+26) @ Washington St .....58.36%
Houston @ Tulane (+15) .....55.08%
Louisville @ Kentucky (+7.5) .....53.60%
Arkansas (+3.5) @ Alabama .....60.99%
Boston College @ Georgia Tech (-7) .....51.09%
Duke (+16.5) @ Northwestern ..... 51.95%
Texas Tech (-28) @ Rice .....58.12%
USC (-9.5) @ Nebraska .....51.26%
UTEP @ New Mexico St (-6.5) .....58.52%
Wyoming @ Boise St (-13.5) .....56.42%
BYU @ Tulsa (+7.5) .....53.60%
Hawaii (-17) @ UNLV .....54.03%
Florida St @ Colorado (+4) .....51.49%
San Diego St (+27.5) @ Arizona St .....55.06%
New Mexico (+10) @ Arizona .....53.07%
San Jose St @ Stanford (-7.5) .....59.00%
Florida International @ Miami, FL (-33.5) .....50.72%
Louisiana-Monroe @ Texas A&M (-25) .....54.40%
SMU (+3.5) @ Arkansas St .....60.99%
Minnesota @ Florida Atlantic (+10) .....55.73%
MTSU @ LSU (-41.5) .....59.96%

Willie Bee · 09-10-07, 02:48 PM

Good stuff again, nep. I'll be taking points and fading Texas A&M again this week

nep1293 · 09-12-07, 09:01 AM

Records by Percent

I went through the numbers from the first 2 weeks to see where the Wins and Losses are coming from

These are the records by the designated percent. 50% includes everything up to 50.99. 51-51.99 and so on

50% (0-6)
51% (4-5)
52% (6-4)
53% (6-2-1)
54% (5-6)
55% (2-2)
56% (2-2)
57% (3-5)
58% (9-2)
59% (3-1)
60% (2-3-1)
61% (3-3)
62% (1-1)
63% (1-0)
64% (0-1)

I'll probably keep track of this over the next few weeks to see if it helps break down the data further. 58% and above is 19-11 so if that continues I might try to focus on those games while increasing my bet size.

nep1293 · 09-16-07, 08:36 AM

Finished week 3 14-11. Boise was a tough loss and I did get New Mexico St at -5 so I pushed that game. 42-33 (56%) on the year. I would like to get that up to 58%, but for the most part we're on schedule for a fairly profitable season.

I should be able to get Week 4 up sometime tonight.

austintx05 · 09-16-07, 10:37 AM

I am not following this system....how does it work again?

Thanks

nep1293 · 09-16-07, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by austintx05

I am not following this system....how does it work again?

Thanks

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/38224-week-1-ncaa-football-picks-chart.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

You can read up on it from that post.

But real simply, I take the opening lines and track W/L records based on those lines. I add a slight mathematical adjustment and come up with expected win % you see next to the games.

Games 55% and above are usually used as "official" picks.

hhsilver · 09-16-07, 11:35 AM

Utah St (+47) @ Oklahoma .....63.73% USU is your pick
MTSU @ LSU (-41.5) .....59.96% LSU is your pick

Do you really have enough data at these kind of lines to believe that these %'s mean anything. In both cases fav is home team. I realize 41.5 is less than 6 tds and 47 is almost 7 tds, but still...

I know you go back years, but I am curious as to how many games at these lines you have in your data?

Also, you have >>>>Ohio (+17.5) @ Virginia Tech .....53.32%

Did Ohio become a play for you ? The line went to about 22.

nep1293 · 09-16-07, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by hhsilver

Utah St (+47) @ Oklahoma .....63.73% USU is your pick
MTSU @ LSU (-41.5) .....59.96% LSU is your pick

Do you really have enough data at these kind of lines to believe that these %'s mean anything. In both cases fav is home team. I realize 41.5 is less than 6 tds and 47 is almost 7 tds, but still...

I know you go back years, but I am curious as to how many games at these lines you have in your data?

Also, you have >>>>Ohio (+17.5) @ Virginia Tech .....53.32%

Did Ohio become a play for you ? The line went to about 22.

Anything over a 35 point spread aren't as strong of a play as the others. For those I lump them together.. 35-41 points is 1 bracket. Anything 42 and over is another. LSU had more data than Utah St. So even though it didn't have a higher % it was probably a better play. Utah St only had 12 games I was working with, but the big underdogs went 8-4 so I still felt it was worth a shot. LSU had almost 60 games in that 35-41 bracket.

I did play Ohio, but it did not count as an official play. I don't like to let the line movement make something a play or take it away from being a play. It was kind of the same thing wth Kansas. That line went crazy and by game time it was out of the 55% barrier. The opening lines are the only lines I use to determine making anything a official play.

I bet another 13 games yesterday in addition to the 25 "official plays". But I only will count the official plays in my season record.