Week 1 NCAA Football Picks - The Chart

**nep1293** · 08-25-07, 09:12 AM

Here are the week 1 picks, lines are from this morning

Miami (OH) @ Ball St (-6) -------------58.07%
Buffalo (+32.5) @ Rutgers-------------60.91%
LSU (-18) @ Mississippi St-------------57.68%
Kent St (+3.5) @ Iowa St-------------61.58%
UNLV (-7) @ Utah St------------------52.99%
Utah @ Oregon St (-7) ---------------57.57%
Tulsa @ Louisiana-Monroe (+4)--------57.89%
Navy @ Temple (+21) ----------------55.38%
Washington @ Syracuse (+3) ---------50.85%
W Michigan @ West Virginia (-24) -----62.99%
East Carolina @ Virginia Tech (-24.5)--50.55%
Marshall (+18) @ Miami (FL)-----------55.91%
UAB @ Michigan St (-19.5) -----------52.06%
Connecticut (-4.5) @ Duke-----------62.32%
Virginia (-4.5) @ Wyoming------------51.37%
Nevada (+20.5) @ Nebraska----------58.41%
Mississippi @ Memphis (+2.5)---------52.28%
Houston @ Oregon (-14) -------------63.70%
Washington St @ Wisconsin (-14.5)---52.66%
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame (-2.5)----51.78%
UCLA (-16.5) @ Stanford-------------58.68%
Wake Forest @ Boston College (-6)---58.57%
Arizona @ BYU (-5)------------------53.48%***updated
Army @ Akron (-5) ------------------52.98%***updated
UCF (+9) @ NC St-------------------51.57%
Baylor @ TCU (-20.5)----------------59.39%
Oklahoma St @ Georgia (-6.5)--------52.91%
Central Michigan @ Kansas (-7.5)-----58.54%
Eastern Michigan @ Pittsburgh (-19.5)-59.89%
Purdue (-6.5) @ Toledo---------------54.85%
Kansas St @ Auburn (-13.5)----------55.88%
Bowling Green (+14.5) @ Minnesota---53.53%
Tennessee (+6) @ California----------50.85%
New Mexico @ UTEP (+3)------------53.38%
San Jose St (+14.5) @ Arizona St----54.03%
*Idaho (+45) @ USC-----------------61.87%
*Florida Int'l (+38) @ Penn St--------63.81%
Arkansas St @ Texas (-39)-----------59.86%
*North Texas (+40) @ Oklahoma------53.29%
La-Lafayette @ South Carolina (-30)--59.96%
Troy (+23.5) @ Arkansas-------------56.42%
MTSU @ Florida Atlantic (-2.5)--------51.16%
Texas Tech (-8.5) @ SMU------------50.71%
Florida St @ Clemson (+3.5)----------53.88%

**BuddyBear** · 08-25-07, 10:50 AM

Very interesting, but can you explain your methodology a little bit more . I am a bit confused as to how you arrive at the percentages.

For instance a game I am interested in is Navy/Temple. I like Temple +21 in this game and have already played it. However, the line opened 21 and has stayed that way. So since there are no line moves in that game what is the basis of the percentage.

Thanks...

**nep1293** · 08-25-07, 12:28 PM

The part about the line moves is for future line moves. So if the game went to 21.5 Temple would receive a boost to 55.88%, if it went down to 20.5 it would be 54.88%. It's not an exact science but it's helpful when the line moves a few points.

For the Temple game, I looked at all the lines of Home Team +21 for the last 5 years. I also look at Home Team +20 and Home Team +22 to make sure there are no wild fluctuations.
21 also includes 21.5, 20 includes 20.5 etc...

Home Team +21 has been 10-7 in the last 5 years for a winning percentage of 58.82%. In the weighted part of my system the record i'm using is 4.4-4.6 for a win % of 48.89%. Last year +21 was 0-2 so that made it a little lopsided. When the percentages between those 2 records are more than 2% off I add them together to get the final %. So Temple ended up with a record of 14.4-11.6 for the the final # of 55.38%. So basically if the game was played 100 times, Temple should cover 55 of them leading to a slight advantage and worth a play.

The worst this system has done was in 2003. The final record was 174-139, 55.59%. There is probably a 1 or 2 percent margin of error because I had to go back and dig up some of the old lines. Last year there was no margin of error and it went 180-138, 56.60%. NFL was fantastic last year, 169-88, 65.76%. I was going 9-5 almost every week

**pags11** · 08-25-07, 03:59 PM

GL with this system nep...

**pokernut9999** · 08-26-07, 12:24 AM

so you take your picks by a certain % number?

**nep1293** · 08-26-07, 05:54 AM

Originally posted by pags11

GL with this system nep...

Thanks

Originally posted by pokernut9999

so you take your picks by a certain % number?

Yeah, the higher the % the safer the play according to the chart. I try to play the teams that are 57% and up. 55 % is really the lowest that I could go and still have them fit the system.

I'll still take a few games that don't fit, but I'm not going to take a team that is too much lower than 50%.

I've always been pretty good at picking games ever since I was a kid and last year, when I started using this, I was humbled by how much my knowledge didn't seem to work and how much this system did. I gradually started to trust it over the season when each week it would outperform me in picking winners. So this year I'm just going to let it rip and see what happens.

**pokernut9999** · 08-26-07, 11:32 AM

Thanks a lot. Will these numbers you have change any before next week?

**BuddyBear** · 08-26-07, 11:34 AM

So if I understand correctly then the mere fact that Temple is +21, without any line movement, means they will cover this number about 55.48% of the time?

**nep1293** · 08-26-07, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by pokernut9999

Thanks a lot. Will these numbers you have change any before next week?

The percents for those lines will be the same, when the line moves you can adjust the percents accordingly for the "push factor". I use 0.50% for every 1/2 point to make it a fairly simple process.

But do keep in mind that Week 1 has been historically less accurate than the entire season.

Originally posted by BuddyBear

So if I understand correctly then the mere fact that Temple is +21, without any line movement, means they will cover this number about 55.48% of the time?

Yes, that is basically it. Certain opening lines seem to have tendencies that play out more than other lines.

Home teams that opened as a PICK have been 41-26 in the last 5 years. Home teams that open as 20-23 pt favorites have gone 99-70. I have every point broken down and just play the percentages. 3.5 and 7.5 have their own section but the rest of the 0.5 points go with their #. So 4.5 is the same as 4 for the purposes of the chart. I also have them broken down for Money Lines and 6 Pt Teasers.

**pokernut9999** · 08-26-07, 01:12 PM

hope you post this every week, would like to follow. I am a firm believer in those stats.

Years ago 5 pt favorites historically were bad bets. You have a record last 5 years on that, would be curious if it still holds true.

**hhsilver** · 08-26-07, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by nep1293

-No neutral site games will be picked

-Each 1/2 point the line moves, corresponds to 0.50%. If the line moves in the recommended teams favor add 0.50% and if it moves against it, move it down 0.50%.

1. Iowa vs N Illinois is at a neutral site - you may want to remove this game.

2. Question: What "opening line" do you use and when do you get it?

3. In the chart you gave the %'s as of the current line. Let's look at one game. I think Tex Tech opened at 10 and is now 8.5. you give the % as 50.71. Am I correct that TX T at 10 started with a % of 49.21 because of the line move. Now, suppose TX T opened at 8.5. What % would your chart start with? I guess what I am asking is : does a team have a different % depending on a move to a number vs opening at that number and staying there?

**nep1293** · 08-26-07, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by pokernut9999

hope you post this every week, would like to follow. I am a firm believer in those stats.

Years ago 5 pt favorites historically were bad bets. You have a record last 5 years on that, would be curious if it still holds true.

I'll post these every week, I'm going to do NFL too. I am targeting 58% for the season, but I truly believe that in a worst case scenario I will break even.

I have Home team +5 as being a very solid bet, 59.39%... Road team +5 is 47.02 %.....and I actually found an error on my table in that section so I'll have to fix a few games.

Originally posted by hhsilver

1. Iowa vs N Illinois is at a neutral site - you may want to remove this game.

2. Question: What "opening line" do you use and when do you get it?

3. In the chart you gave the %'s as of the current line. Let's look at one game. I think Tex Tech opened at 10 and is now 8.5. you give the % as 50.71. Am I correct that TX T at 10 started with a % of 49.21 because of the line move. Now, suppose TX T opened at 8.5. What % would your chart start with? I guess what I am asking is : does a team have a different % depending on a move to a number vs opening at that number and staying there?

1.Thanks for the heads up on the Iowa game, i'll remove it

2. I used the pinnacle line last year and will use that again this year, Last year I got it Sunday night. SBR Odds shows the opening line with the others so it is much easier now than it used to be. for a few of the previous years I had to hunt down the openers at a few casinos and a few offshore books and I did the best I could with them (which accounts for thhe slight margin of error for those years).

3. You have the Texas Tech/SMU game correct. I had the opener at SMU +9.5 and SMU was 50.29%, at 8.5 it becomes SMU 49.29% and Tech 50.71%.

If Tech opened at 8.5 it would be Tech 51.49% SMU 48.51%

**nep1293** · 08-30-07, 08:56 AM

Official Chart plays for 8/30/07

These are the official picks for today. For the purposes of the system I wll only post the plays that were at or above the 55% plateau and have enough historical data to qualify. I'll keep track of the W/L records all year.

Miami @ Ball St (-6)
Buffalo (+32) @ Rutgers
Tulsa @ Louisiana-Monroe (+3)
LSU (-17.5) @ Mississippi St
Kent (+3) @ Iowa St
Utah @ Oregon St (-6.5)

**pokernut9999** · 08-30-07, 09:39 AM

I am going to follow, hope your system works LOL

**LT Profits** · 08-30-07, 10:23 AM

pokernut.

I saw that you loaded WinPicks and were perplexed by it.

You can get the data that nep uses with that software going back to 1985!

All you do is click Trends, then Team History, then select All Teams, then go to Opponent tab and click Exact Line Value. Here you select the line you want to research, and you get the +/- results since 1985. i.e., if you choose 3, it spits out results for faves (-3) and dogs (+3). Try it, you'll like it.

**LT Profits** · 08-30-07, 10:25 AM

Oh and nep.....GOOD STUFF!

**nep1293** · 08-30-07, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Oh and nep.....GOOD STUFF!

Thanks, let's hope it holds true to form.

**pokernut9999** · 08-30-07, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

pokernut.

I saw that you loaded WinPicks and were perplexed by it.

You can get the data that nep uses with that software going back to 1985!

All you do is click Trends, then Team History, then select All Teams, then go to Opponent tab and click Exact Line Value. Here you select the line you want to research, and you get the +/- results since 1985. i.e., if you choose 3, it spits out results for faves (-3) and dogs (+3). Try it, you'll like it.

I will try again, thanks I am lost without directions.

**White_Tiger** · 08-30-07, 05:47 PM

GL on system Nep but where you get those % from if you don't mind I ask?

Thanks

**pags11** · 08-30-07, 05:51 PM

good to see you on LSU...

**r2d2** · 08-30-07, 06:22 PM

NEP, good work man. I like it. Please keep posting and college through the season. Interested to see what the system turns out. ! BOL, and lets hope that system cleans the :shit up this year

**nep1293** · 08-30-07, 09:10 PM

Originally posted by White_Tiger

GL on system Nep but where you get those % from if you don't mind I ask?

Thanks

The percentages come from the data I have from the last 5 years. They basically take similar games from the last 5 years and show what the outcomes of those games were. I'm a big fan of trends and such. I think all the essential information has already been mentioned in this thread.

I appreciate all the support, but be gentle if we get off to a somewhat rocky start. The Ball St push would've been OK but it didn't work out. I'm really looking to just break even these first 1 or 2 weeks and then get on a roll once the better matchups start.

**nep1293** · 08-31-07, 07:07 AM

Official Chart pick for 8/31/07

A nice 3 game win streak to end the night brought us back to 3-3. All the W's were relatively easy covers while 2 of the 3 losses were very close to being pushes or W's. I'm not sure if that really means anything but I found it interesting.

Here's tonight's pick

Navy @ Temple (+21)

Also, for the purposes of the chart, I will be using the opening line to determine a W or L. So if Louisiana-Monroe lost by 4 last night it would be counted as a W since they opened at 5.5. I would think over the course of the year it would only affect a handful of games and they would probably even out anyway.

**White_Tiger** · 08-31-07, 06:16 PM

Thanks for sharing Nep1293 and gl to you. I'm suck @ NCAAF just try to learn from all the expert here.

**dwaechte** · 08-31-07, 06:30 PM

So being as how I certainly haven't gained anyones trust here since this is my first post, this may sound made up, but did indeed happen.

Anyways, I saw your post outlining the system and have decided to follow your system for NCAAF all season. I went on to make last nights bets but unfortunately was too slow to get them in for the early games, but was able to place the last 3 bets. Worked out well lol.

Unfortunately since I just opened my account and am gambling for the first time, I'm taking it really easy to start and bet extremely low amounts.

**nep1293** · 08-31-07, 10:18 PM

Originally posted by White_Tiger

Thanks for sharing Nep1293 and gl to you. I'm suck @ NCAAF just try to learn from all the expert here.

GL to you too

Originally posted by dwaechte

Unfortunately since I just opened my account and am gambling for the first time, I'm taking it really easy to start and bet extremely low amounts.

Starting small is the way to go. With NCAA and NFL I should be wagering on 30-40 games a week. I'm betting to win $20 a game and with that I expect to average a $100 a week profit. My goal is to build up my bankroll over the next few years and, if everything goes as planned, gradually increase my bet size.

I'll post a bunch of plays tomorrow morning for those that are following along.

**pags11** · 09-01-07, 01:01 AM

good hit again nep...

**nep1293** · 09-01-07, 07:13 AM

Originally posted by pags11

good hit again nep...

Thanks Pags, I always cringe a little when the system spits out Temple, but the Owls have come through for me. Last year, they were recommended over Bowling Green when they actually won.

**crackerjack** · 09-01-07, 07:22 AM

Interesting thread. Will be following it... Thanks for the time and effort in posting, nep

**nep1293** · 09-01-07, 07:36 AM

Official Chart picks for 9/1/07

Temple gets us to 4-3 on the year.

Here are todays picks. Lots of favorites on the board

Western Michigan @ West Virginia (-24)
Connecticut (-4.5) @ Duke
Louisiana-Lafayette @ South Carolina (-29)
Houston @ Oregon (-16)
Washington St @ Wisconsin (-14)
UCLA (-16.5) @ Stanford
Wake Forest @ Boston College (-6)
Baylor @ TCU (-21)
Central Michigan @ Kansas (-8)
Eastern Michigan @ Pittsburgh (-20.5)
Kansas St @ Auburn (-13.5)
Arkansas St @ Texas (-38.5)
Troy (+23.5) @ Arkansas

**nep1293** · 09-01-07, 06:28 PM

We're 6-0 in the early games. Looking good so far in the other games that are live.

**pokernut9999** · 09-01-07, 06:33 PM

Looking good so far today. Wish I had added 3 of yours I did not play. 9-1 so far Colo St 1/2 pt. loser. But I am happy with 9-1 !!!!!

**nep1293** · 09-01-07, 06:43 PM

nothing wrong with 9-1, it's always nice to get off to a good start

**nep1293** · 09-01-07, 10:12 PM

Well we kind of limped home, got a little lucky on the Troy game but it counts. Finished today 10-3. Brings the record for the week to 14-6, 70%. Not a bad start to the season. Neither game on Monday will be a play so that is it for Week 1.

I should have a new post on Monday or Tuesday with all the percentages for Week 2. And then I'll post the official plays on the day of the games. I should also have Week 1 NFL up in the next day or 2 so look for that.

Its been fun, let's hope this continues all year!!!