An Early Look. Big 10

[BigdaddyQH]

We will try to mix a few wagering angles with our early prognostication, even though we have a limited amount of odds to work with so far. Here is a review of the Big 10:

Did OHIO STATE finally find an offense in the Rose Bowl? That will be the big question facing the Buckeyes in 2010. The offense returns 7 starters, including their entire backfield. Pryor and Tressell showed that they finally got it in the Rose Bowl. The question is was it Ohio State, or the terrible Oregon defense? The offense had better click, because the defense loses 4 starters and a lot of depth. The schedule is Big 10 soft, with Miami (FL) the only non-con challenge and away games at Iowa and Wisky the only obsticles. WAGERING NOTES: In the past 5 years, Ohio State has covered in at least 5 of their 8 Big 10 games each season. Ohio State is the 2nd choice to win it all, and will be a prohibitive favorite to win the Big 10. You will not get very good odds.

Everyone loves IOWA HC Ferentz, but the fact is that he still has failed to win a Big 10 title outright, or go to the Rose Bowl. This year will prove to be another big test. The offense loses 5 out of it's front 6, but the backfield comes back intact. A lot will depend on RB Hampton. The defense returns 8 starters, and will be very tough to score on again. The schedule could not be easier, with Penn State, Wisky and Ohio State all at home. Can Ferentz finally win a Big 10 title outright? WAGERING NOTES: Iowa is 1-4 ATS vs Northwestern, and face them on the road just before the Ohio State showdown. Talk about your look ahead situations. Iowa should go off at +400 or higher to win the Big 10. That may be worth looking at.

WISCONSIN finished a vey quiet 10-3 last season. The offense loses their starting QB, and little else. If they can find someone to throw the ball enough to keep opposing defenses honest, they will score. The defense must replace 4 starters and a lot of depth. The DL and Safety position get hit the hardest. Their schedule is about as easy as it gets. Austin Peay? That's right. Look for Wisky to be undefeated when they host Ohio State in Mid October. They then go to Iowa the following week. No Penn State this year. WAGERING NOTES: Wisconsin is 0-4 ATS vs Ohio State and 1-4 ATS vs Iowa. With the soft schedule they play, if you can get Wisky at 9.5 wins or less, take the over. Also check the odds forWisky winning the Big 10. You may be surprised at how high they will be.

JoePA just rolls along at PENN STATE, and this year will see him on the plus side of the ledger again. THe Lions only lose 3 starters on offense, but one of those is QB Clark. The defense gets hit a bit harder, losing 5 starters. The schedule has 9 wins writen all over it, but 3 very tough away games, at Alabama, Iowa, and Ohio State will keep Penn State out of a BCS game this year. WAGERING NOTES: Penn State is 1-6 ATS as a dog in the past 4 years.

It is do or die for Rich Rodriguez at MICHIGAN this year. After two straight losing seasons, Michigan is going to have to start putting their act together. Tate Forcier and Denard Robinsin return at QB, but Michigan loses 4 starters on offense and both RB's. The defense, which was just terrible last year, returns all but 2 starters. This unit holds the key for Michigan this year. Their schedule certainly is built for a minimum of 7 wins this season. Anything less, and Rodreguez may be gone. WAGERING NOTES: Michigan is 0-7 ATS as a HF in conference play in the last 2 years, and 3-12-1 overall. Last season, 6 of Michigan's games totals went over 60 points.

NORTHWESTERN is the little train that could. Every year they go unnoticed, and every year they are competitive. This season, they lose their QB plus two other starters on offense, and 5 starters on defense. Still HC Fitzgerald has managed to amass a 27-23 record at Nrothwestern. With 4 winnable non-con games in 2010, the 'Cats will be in the hunt for a nice bowl game once again. No Ohio State on the schedule helps. Getting Iowa at home and ina look ahead situation also helps. WAGERING NOTES: Northwestern is a poor 3-9 ATS in regular season non-con games under Fitzgerald. Look for a decent total win number. Anything at 7 or lower has to be looked at seriously for an over wager.

MICHIGAN STATE was a big time disappointment last season. The biggest culprit was the defense, which gave up 33 or more points 6 times last season. That defense loses 5 starters and some depth. The offense returns it's QB duo of Cousins and Nichol, but loses 4 starters and a ton of depth, especially at RB, LT, and Center. October is the key month for MSU, with trips to Michigan, Northwestern and Iowa. They finish on the raod at Penn State, and host Wisconsin and Notre Dame. WAGERING NOTES: MSU is 0-8 S/U and 2-6 ATS in their last game of the season. 4 of thise losses are bowl losses.

ILLINOIS is going to have to find an offense that abandoned them last year. Gone are Juice Williams and 6 other starters on offense. The defense, which played reasonably well for parts of last year, loses 4 starters, but 3 are on the OL. There is no doubt aht HC Zook's head is on the chopping block this year. WAGERING NOTES: Illinois is a terrible 2-12 ATS in non-con games in the past 4 years. They are 1-4 ATS against Northwestern.

PURDUE shocked many last year, defeating Ohio State at home, and coming within 2 points of a bowl bid. The offense was responsible for a lot of this, but takes a huge hit, losing 7 starters including the entire starting backfield. The defense loses 6 starters, including their starting backfield. The schedule features 3 home games against MAC teams, but even with that, it is going to take something special for Purdue to win 6 games this season. WAGERING NOTES: Purdue is 1-5 ATS after Ohio State.

MINNESOTA seems to sneak into bowl games by playing soft non-con schedules. They will need that kind of help again, as the schedule has home games against the likes of USC, Northwestern, Penn State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. The offense, that was held to 21 or less 7 times last year including two shutouts,loses 4 starters and a lot of depth. The defense, which played very well last year, gets hit hard, losing 8 of their 11 starters. Minny is going to have to recuild there defense in a hurry to be competitive this season. WAGERING NOTES: Minnesota is 1-11 S/U in their last 4 games of the season for the past 3 seasons, and 3-8 ATS.

INDIANA just can't seem to get started. After a promising 3-0 start last season, they managed only 1 more win along the way. Once again, the schedule is line up with 4 non-con patsies, but the question is can they beat a Big 10 team? The offense returns QB Chappell, but loses both RB's, and three on the line. The defense loses 7 starters. Indiana has managed to win two Big 10 games in two seasons. Much improvment is needed on that stat for them to improve this year. WAGERING NOTES: As bad as their S/U record in the Big 10 has been, Indiana is not an automatic fade, having gone 5-3 ATS last season.

Next Up: Big 12 North.

[head_strong]

[lolyoutard]

I'll be on Wisconsin to win the Big 10. I think they have the best team in the Big 10 next year by a hair.

[Mr. Feeney]

Not that it matters too much for us, but IU's best RB Willis will only be a Soph. so he will be back.

[bookie]

This is going to sound like a vague question, but I mean it as a serious one: How do you stay up on all this? Do you keep a notebook, or have a database? What do you read for your college football information?

I want to become a better student of CFB, and it seems like you have a lot to teach.

[Ch3fDan]

As much as it pains me to say I think Ohio State is set the best for the Big 10 next year.

[merrickjo]

a good site for tons of college football information is collegefootballnews.com

[bookie]

Thanks merrickjo...I know of that site...and or Rivals and Scouts and the ESPN blogs and the CNN-SI site.

What I'm really interested in hearing about is how someone like BigDaddy puts it all together. Does he just read a lot and remember? Or does he have an organized way of filing tidbits away and calling them up when he handicaps a particular game.

[BigdaddyQH]

Thanks merrickjo...I know of that site...and or Rivals and Scouts and the ESPN blogs and the CNN-SI site.

What I'm really interested in hearing about is how someone like BigDaddy puts it all together. Does he just read a lot and remember? Or does he have an organized way of filing tidbits away and calling them up when he handicaps a particular game.

We have a rather elaborate computer system. I also have good people who work for me and with me. We have a formula based on many factors, including returning starters, returning lettermen, strength of schedule (one of the most overlooked factors in pre-season rankings), incoming freshman, and the technical side of things, such as angles and trends. But the most important thing is this. You either have it or you don't. You have to have the ability to know when no matter how a game stacks up, there is something wrong with it. Call it a gut feeling if you will.

Right now, I am doing my thinkg on the NHL. I have absolutely no knowledge of the NHL as far as players go, the history of teams, past performances against each other, or anything like that. Without any information that any decent gambler would insist on before making wagers, I am still 10-6, +600 units. Why? Because I can smell out a winning wager. My strategy is simple. I look for a good dog, or a streaking favorite at home, with decent odds. That is it. That is what you have to have to be a consistant winner. You just have to have that gut instinct.

[bookie]

Could you describe in detail how you isolated the factors you looked at and reasoned about a particular game. Maybe take me through a game you analyzed last year, or one from the opening week that you think the linemaker won't price correctly.

[BigdaddyQH]

I can try. We have developed a formula. It took 5 years to develop, so it is not something that came overnight. We assign points (1-9) for various catagories. (Anything over 5 is more of a raity than common). Now a lot of this work is done before the season actually begins. For example, we can assign points for home field advantage. We also can assign points for strength of schedule, returning lettermen, incoming freshman that may start, coaches, the offense, split between backfield, line, and as a whole, the defense split the same way, special teams, turnovers, penalties, and angles and trends. All of this is done early, before the futures come out, normally in July. By futures, I am talking about specific games, not who will win the NC or any particular conference. We throw all of this information into the computer. The computer comes out with a line. So, for example, if Missouri gets 17 points and Illinois gets 6, that makes Mizzou a 13 point favorite in our book. Then we look at the futures line and see what the game opens up at. Last year we had Mizzou as a 9 point favorite, and the book opened up at Illinois -5 and climbed to -7. We try to look for a 9 point difference between our line and the books line. So with Mizzou at -9 in our eyes, and Illinois climbing to -7, that was a 16 point difference, or a bad line, in our minds. We took Mizzou and the points and Mizzou won outright by 28.

Now our information must be updated almost on a daily basis. Injuries happen. Kids get suspended or kicked off of teams. Freshmen emerge in Spring and Summer practices. Coaching changes happen. The NCAA can make life miserable for teams. Teams concentrate on certain things that they want to improve on. You can see how complex this can get, when you take all of these numbers and mulitply them by 120. When the season actually starts, we then figure in the weather.

The important thing is to develop your formula. We are constantly tweaking our formula, based on results. You have to have a lot of patience. You have to realize that there may be weeks when you will have 5 wagers, and weeks when you will have none. Normally, the longer the season gets, the closer the linemakers are to the number, so we tend to make more wagers early in the season, when the non-con games are being contested. We try to limit our plays to no more than 5 a week. We are old school gamblers and believe that the higher the number of games that you wager, the close you will come to the 50% number, which is a loser unless you can play vig free. We would rather wager a higher amount on less games. We also try to avoid wagerin on an even number of games, again to avoid the 50% number. Now some like to play more games and spend less money. Others do not. Some use a star or unit system. We do not, under normal conditions. We believe that if game A and B are worth wagering on, they should be worth the same amount of action. Again, that is just how we do business. No doubt others will disagree. One more thing. No matter what system you use, or the number of wagers you make, or the number of units you place on a wager, if it works, that is what you should stick with. You are not going to be the best player in here. Someone is always going to beat you. The object is to win in the long run. Set a goal before your first wager. Set a certain amount of money aside for your season. Stick to it. Be patient and learn money management. How may guys do you see in here that dump everything they have on one wager, only to lose it?

There are other factors, strictly wagering factors, that can determine a wager, especially middles. Last year, Florida was scheduled to play LSU on 10/10. They had an off week before the game. Tebow got hurt in the Kentucky game. The line went crazy, depending on what rumor about Tebow was circulating. Consequently, the line fluctuated from Florida -7 to Florida -11, before settling at -8. We middled the game, taking LSU +10.5 and Florida -7. Florida won by 10, and we cashed in the middle. You can also play a future on a game thinking that there will be a big line change before the game is played. Futures are the best bet for your money, because the worst you can do is lose a little vig, but you can win both games. At -110, that comes out to 20/1. So if you win just one middle, you can lose 20 and still break even. You will not get a better break than that.

I hope this explains some things to you. Good Luck.

[bigbank]

Buckeyes win again and RichRod pounds Michigan further into the ground before being shown the on-ramp to I-94

[BigdaddyQH]

When we look at Michigan's schedule, we see 7 very winnable games. Those are at home (5) against UConn, UMass, Bowling Green, Michigan State and Illinois., and on the road (2) Indiana and Purdue. They also get Iowa and Wisconsin at home, and what will be a very green Notre Dame team in South Bend. We expect 7-8 wins from Michigan, but 6 wins is certainly doable, and would get them back into a bowl game. RichRod would cite progress, and with the economy the way it is, Michigan would not send him packing and pay off a huge contract.

[bpw6]

This is a great write up!!