2007 Big 12 Preview
07/19/2007 07:59 AM
By: Marc Lawrence
Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas are the usual suspects in the Big 12 as potential champions. But a few schools on the rise could upset those plans as Iowa St, Missouri and Oklahoma St improve.
They say quantity never outweighs quality, yet hope forever springs eternal at the start of each football season when it comes to the Big 12 Conference (see Mack Brown). A handful of teams will fit nicely into this year’s Top 25 preseason poll.
2007 Big 12 Preview
The question, however, is whether one is strong enough to win a National Championship, a la the 2005 Texas Longhorns.
Here is one handicapper’s take on the Big 12 for 2007. Returning starters are listed alongside each team’s name (returning QB’s designated with an *). Enjoy!
BAYLOR (OFF - 4 / DEF - 7)
Team Theme: New Morris Code
Just when it appeared the Bears were ready to crawl out of their cave and carve out a winning season, they collapsed like a house of cards, going 0-4 straight up and against the spread to conclude the 2006 season. With that head coach Guy Morriss dispatched five assistants and replaced them with new blood.
Still, it’s important to remember Baylor won 13 games in six years prior to Morriss’ arrival in 2003. They have already won more games (15) since. "The players have worked very hard in the winter conditioning program," contends Morriss.
Taking on eight bowlers in 2007 won’t be easy considering six of their eight losses last year came against the same ilk.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Kansas State (10/27) - *KEY if KSU off loss
COLORADO (OFF - *9 / DEF - 7)
Team Theme: What the F***!
Talk about a program that’s hit the skids! When the Buffaloes lost their season opener against Montana State last year it marked a string of 12 losses in 13 tries for coaches in their debut game in Colorado history. Furthermore, the 10-game losing streak they played through last season equaled a school record for futility.
All of which prompted head coach Dan Hawkins to say, "One of the reasons I came to Colorado was to reinvent myself."
If this is reinvention then someone had better call the patent office and file an invalidity suit. The reward for their tribulations is a schedule laced with nine bowl opponents. WTF! Before you know it they’ll be renaming the home field Folsom Prison.
PLAY ON: vs. Missouri (11/3)
IOWA STATE (OFF - *5 / DEF - 5)
Team Theme: Holiday Planner
New head coach Gene Chizik, former defensive coordinator at Texas, has been called "the best defensive mind" in college football by ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit. What we know for sure is that during this decade Iowa State ended the season allowing an average of less than 360 YPG four times. They went bowling all four times.
Those numbers should be music to the ears of senior Brett Meyer, the only active Division I-A quarterback with over 7,000 passing yards and 400 rushing yards. With ISU’s most prolific WR senior Todd Blythe also back, and no less than seven home games dotting the schedule, our best advice might be for Cyclone fans to book your bowl tickets now.
PLAY ON: vs. Iowa (9/15)
KANSAS (OFF - *6 / DEF - 8)
Team Theme: He Ain't Heavy
By our calculations Mark Mangino is the largest cut of coach on the meat market today. His heaviness is more than a grown lion and worth every bit of the $3,333 per lb. his salary commands. That’s because the hearts of his players, and their performance on the field, mirror his size.
After watching win totals crash from 5-to-4-to-3-to-2 from 1999-2002, the mighty Mangino has elevated this program back to contending status by becoming bowl-eligible three of the past four seasons. Seven home games (four in a row to open the season), and the return of starting QB Kerry Meier finds the Jayhawks brimming with confidence. No matter how you weigh it, KU is on the rise.
PLAY ON: vs. Toledo (9/15)
KANSAS STATE (OFF - *7 / DEF - 6)
Team Theme: Prince of Tides
Don’t be too discouraged in the Wildcats' performance in last year’s Texas Bowl. After all, it’s not often you find a new coach that leads his team into a bowl game after inheriting a wallowing program. All in all a nice job by Ron Prince whose team battled inconsistencies (scored 30+ points five times but less than 10 on four occasions) while managing to go 3-0 in close-call games decided by seven or less points (1-3 in 2005). Fifty-one lettermen are back looking for a shift in the tide.
"We had a nice season last year," Prince insists, "but we didn’t come close to reaching our goals -- 2007 is a year where I want to see improvement."
PLAY ON: vs. Kansas (10/6)
MISSOURI (OFF - *8 / DEF - 5)
Team Theme: Just Passing Through
Three Bowl Games in four years...and counting. That’s the reminder pasted throughout the Tigers’ 2007 spring prospectus. It all starts with QB Chase Daniels who set school records last season for TD passes (28) passing yards (3.527) and total offense (3,906). Better yet Daniels' top two targets, senior WR Will Franklin and junior WR Tommy Saunders, are the best tandem in the Big 12, if not the nation.
After opening the campaign against four relative lightweights, Missouri tackles three straight bowlers to open the conference portion of the schedule before closing out against three of the same. Look for Gary Pinkel to get his wins against the non-conference teams he knows he can handle.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Mississippi (9/8)
NEBRASKA (OFF - 7 / DEF - 5)
Team Theme: I Am Sam I Am
The defending Big 12 North Division champions appear to be finally gaining a grasp of Bill Callahan’s offensive schemes. It was evident with improvement across the board in their numbers, while the defense was solidly tough when it needed to be.
QB Zac Taylor has moved on, replaced by 6-04. 230-pound senior Sam Keller, a transfer from Arizona State. While with the Sun Devils, Keller tossed for 2,165 yards and 20 TD in just seven games in 2005 before injuring his hand. On hand is a pair of record-setting senior wide receivers Terrence Nunn and Maurice Purify, plus junior WR Nate Swift (ninth in career receptions). We’re thinking it could be bombs away in Lincoln.
PLAY AGAINST: as favs vs. Kansas (11/3)
OKLAHOMA (OFF - 8 / DEF - 6)
Team Theme: More Sooner Than Ever
Sometimes, numbers can be deceiving. In the case of the Sooners, 14 returning starters may not appear overwhelming but the fact of the matter is this team is loaded with experienced personnel, including 29 players who filled starting roles at some point last season, three more than the previous year.
Bob Stoops welcomes back four of five offensive linemen who started the final seven games last season, plus OT Brandon Drayton who started the first seven games before breaking a leg. Along with Biletnikoff candidate WR Malcom Kelly, RB Allen Patrick (Adrian Peterson’s replacement last season) and all three tight ends back on board, this team is well stocked and dangerous. Forewarned is forearmed.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Texas (10/3) - *KEY if allowed > 21 pts vs. Colorado
OKLAHOMA STATE (OFF - *8 / DEF - 7)
Team Theme: Still Water's Gun D(y)eep
Folks around Stillwater are referring to Mike Gundy as the 'Comeback Kid.' That happens when you lead your team to victories over Kansas and Nebraska (after trailing 17-0 and 16-0, respectively), part of OSU’s seven win bowl season.
Gundy has finally arrived at his alma mater, perhaps a better coach than he was a player (and he was a very good QB). Best of all, new coaches generally find the most improvement in the third year with a program. The stable is loaded in 2007 with 15 starters back, including QB Bobby Reid, five of its top six RB's and four of its top five WR's. Solid back-to-back recruiting classes find this program on the rise.
PLAY ON: vs. Texas A&M (10/6)
TEXAS (OFF - *6 / DEF - 6)
Team Theme: Cat-o-Nine Lives
Give the man his due. Mack Brown has turned the college football world on its ear since his arrival to Texas nine years ago. A nation-leading nine consecutive 9+ win seasons finds the Longhorns riding a 17-year streak of winning years. Only Florida State (30) boasts more.
"Our goal is to win championships with nice kids who are graduating. We may be in the entertainment business on the weekends, but we are in the education business during the week," says Brown.
He’ll entertain fans with ten seniors with starting experience in 2007, plus sophomore sensation QB Colt McCoy. Together they’ll look to take the Horns where they’ve never been before to a fourth consecutive bowl victory.
PLAY AGAINST: as dog vs. Texas A&M (11/23)
TEXAS A&M (OFF - *9 / DEF - 6)
Team Theme: PSI - College Stattion
Whew! Dennis Franchione finally found the relief valve and cracked it open last season. With pressure building after an underwhelming 16-19 log in his first three seasons with A&M, he found a nine-win-breath-of-fresh-air last season.
It all came about when the defense finally came around, improving nearly 100 YPG over the previous three editions. Amazingly, he’s won more conference championships (8) than any coach in the conference, but none of them with the Aggies -- and that’s what counts.
While we’re counting, we also note A&M failed to have a single player selected in the year’s NFL draft -- for the first time since 1971. With five road games against five bowl teams, let’s hope he has a better gauge at College Station.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Oklahoma (11/3)
TEXAS TECH (OFF - 4 / DEF - 5)
Team Theme: Holy $#!%
Mike Leach is not an overly religious man but we couldn’t help but overhear shouts of Hallelujah coming from his office this spring. That’s because, for the first time in five years, he will have the luxury of a returning starter at quarterback in 2007.
Junior QB Graham Harrell, 41-3 as a starter in high school and Player of the Year in Texas in 2003, led the conference in total offense last year. He also rallied his team from a seemingly insurmountable 31-point deficit to beat Minnesota in last year’s Insight Bowl.
Unfortunately the Red Raiders are woefully thin in other returning starter areas. Should the defense continue to make rapid strides, Leach will be praising the Lord by season’s end.
PLAY ON: vs. Baylor (11/3)
07/19/2007 07:59 AM
By: Marc Lawrence
Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas are the usual suspects in the Big 12 as potential champions. But a few schools on the rise could upset those plans as Iowa St, Missouri and Oklahoma St improve.
They say quantity never outweighs quality, yet hope forever springs eternal at the start of each football season when it comes to the Big 12 Conference (see Mack Brown). A handful of teams will fit nicely into this year’s Top 25 preseason poll.
2007 Big 12 Preview
The question, however, is whether one is strong enough to win a National Championship, a la the 2005 Texas Longhorns.
Here is one handicapper’s take on the Big 12 for 2007. Returning starters are listed alongside each team’s name (returning QB’s designated with an *). Enjoy!
BAYLOR (OFF - 4 / DEF - 7)
Team Theme: New Morris Code
Just when it appeared the Bears were ready to crawl out of their cave and carve out a winning season, they collapsed like a house of cards, going 0-4 straight up and against the spread to conclude the 2006 season. With that head coach Guy Morriss dispatched five assistants and replaced them with new blood.
Still, it’s important to remember Baylor won 13 games in six years prior to Morriss’ arrival in 2003. They have already won more games (15) since. "The players have worked very hard in the winter conditioning program," contends Morriss.
Taking on eight bowlers in 2007 won’t be easy considering six of their eight losses last year came against the same ilk.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Kansas State (10/27) - *KEY if KSU off loss
COLORADO (OFF - *9 / DEF - 7)
Team Theme: What the F***!
Talk about a program that’s hit the skids! When the Buffaloes lost their season opener against Montana State last year it marked a string of 12 losses in 13 tries for coaches in their debut game in Colorado history. Furthermore, the 10-game losing streak they played through last season equaled a school record for futility.
All of which prompted head coach Dan Hawkins to say, "One of the reasons I came to Colorado was to reinvent myself."
If this is reinvention then someone had better call the patent office and file an invalidity suit. The reward for their tribulations is a schedule laced with nine bowl opponents. WTF! Before you know it they’ll be renaming the home field Folsom Prison.
PLAY ON: vs. Missouri (11/3)
IOWA STATE (OFF - *5 / DEF - 5)
Team Theme: Holiday Planner
New head coach Gene Chizik, former defensive coordinator at Texas, has been called "the best defensive mind" in college football by ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit. What we know for sure is that during this decade Iowa State ended the season allowing an average of less than 360 YPG four times. They went bowling all four times.
Those numbers should be music to the ears of senior Brett Meyer, the only active Division I-A quarterback with over 7,000 passing yards and 400 rushing yards. With ISU’s most prolific WR senior Todd Blythe also back, and no less than seven home games dotting the schedule, our best advice might be for Cyclone fans to book your bowl tickets now.
PLAY ON: vs. Iowa (9/15)
KANSAS (OFF - *6 / DEF - 8)
Team Theme: He Ain't Heavy
By our calculations Mark Mangino is the largest cut of coach on the meat market today. His heaviness is more than a grown lion and worth every bit of the $3,333 per lb. his salary commands. That’s because the hearts of his players, and their performance on the field, mirror his size.
After watching win totals crash from 5-to-4-to-3-to-2 from 1999-2002, the mighty Mangino has elevated this program back to contending status by becoming bowl-eligible three of the past four seasons. Seven home games (four in a row to open the season), and the return of starting QB Kerry Meier finds the Jayhawks brimming with confidence. No matter how you weigh it, KU is on the rise.
PLAY ON: vs. Toledo (9/15)
KANSAS STATE (OFF - *7 / DEF - 6)
Team Theme: Prince of Tides
Don’t be too discouraged in the Wildcats' performance in last year’s Texas Bowl. After all, it’s not often you find a new coach that leads his team into a bowl game after inheriting a wallowing program. All in all a nice job by Ron Prince whose team battled inconsistencies (scored 30+ points five times but less than 10 on four occasions) while managing to go 3-0 in close-call games decided by seven or less points (1-3 in 2005). Fifty-one lettermen are back looking for a shift in the tide.
"We had a nice season last year," Prince insists, "but we didn’t come close to reaching our goals -- 2007 is a year where I want to see improvement."
PLAY ON: vs. Kansas (10/6)
MISSOURI (OFF - *8 / DEF - 5)
Team Theme: Just Passing Through
Three Bowl Games in four years...and counting. That’s the reminder pasted throughout the Tigers’ 2007 spring prospectus. It all starts with QB Chase Daniels who set school records last season for TD passes (28) passing yards (3.527) and total offense (3,906). Better yet Daniels' top two targets, senior WR Will Franklin and junior WR Tommy Saunders, are the best tandem in the Big 12, if not the nation.
After opening the campaign against four relative lightweights, Missouri tackles three straight bowlers to open the conference portion of the schedule before closing out against three of the same. Look for Gary Pinkel to get his wins against the non-conference teams he knows he can handle.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Mississippi (9/8)
NEBRASKA (OFF - 7 / DEF - 5)
Team Theme: I Am Sam I Am
The defending Big 12 North Division champions appear to be finally gaining a grasp of Bill Callahan’s offensive schemes. It was evident with improvement across the board in their numbers, while the defense was solidly tough when it needed to be.
QB Zac Taylor has moved on, replaced by 6-04. 230-pound senior Sam Keller, a transfer from Arizona State. While with the Sun Devils, Keller tossed for 2,165 yards and 20 TD in just seven games in 2005 before injuring his hand. On hand is a pair of record-setting senior wide receivers Terrence Nunn and Maurice Purify, plus junior WR Nate Swift (ninth in career receptions). We’re thinking it could be bombs away in Lincoln.
PLAY AGAINST: as favs vs. Kansas (11/3)
OKLAHOMA (OFF - 8 / DEF - 6)
Team Theme: More Sooner Than Ever
Sometimes, numbers can be deceiving. In the case of the Sooners, 14 returning starters may not appear overwhelming but the fact of the matter is this team is loaded with experienced personnel, including 29 players who filled starting roles at some point last season, three more than the previous year.
Bob Stoops welcomes back four of five offensive linemen who started the final seven games last season, plus OT Brandon Drayton who started the first seven games before breaking a leg. Along with Biletnikoff candidate WR Malcom Kelly, RB Allen Patrick (Adrian Peterson’s replacement last season) and all three tight ends back on board, this team is well stocked and dangerous. Forewarned is forearmed.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Texas (10/3) - *KEY if allowed > 21 pts vs. Colorado
OKLAHOMA STATE (OFF - *8 / DEF - 7)
Team Theme: Still Water's Gun D(y)eep
Folks around Stillwater are referring to Mike Gundy as the 'Comeback Kid.' That happens when you lead your team to victories over Kansas and Nebraska (after trailing 17-0 and 16-0, respectively), part of OSU’s seven win bowl season.
Gundy has finally arrived at his alma mater, perhaps a better coach than he was a player (and he was a very good QB). Best of all, new coaches generally find the most improvement in the third year with a program. The stable is loaded in 2007 with 15 starters back, including QB Bobby Reid, five of its top six RB's and four of its top five WR's. Solid back-to-back recruiting classes find this program on the rise.
PLAY ON: vs. Texas A&M (10/6)
TEXAS (OFF - *6 / DEF - 6)
Team Theme: Cat-o-Nine Lives
Give the man his due. Mack Brown has turned the college football world on its ear since his arrival to Texas nine years ago. A nation-leading nine consecutive 9+ win seasons finds the Longhorns riding a 17-year streak of winning years. Only Florida State (30) boasts more.
"Our goal is to win championships with nice kids who are graduating. We may be in the entertainment business on the weekends, but we are in the education business during the week," says Brown.
He’ll entertain fans with ten seniors with starting experience in 2007, plus sophomore sensation QB Colt McCoy. Together they’ll look to take the Horns where they’ve never been before to a fourth consecutive bowl victory.
PLAY AGAINST: as dog vs. Texas A&M (11/23)
TEXAS A&M (OFF - *9 / DEF - 6)
Team Theme: PSI - College Stattion
Whew! Dennis Franchione finally found the relief valve and cracked it open last season. With pressure building after an underwhelming 16-19 log in his first three seasons with A&M, he found a nine-win-breath-of-fresh-air last season.
It all came about when the defense finally came around, improving nearly 100 YPG over the previous three editions. Amazingly, he’s won more conference championships (8) than any coach in the conference, but none of them with the Aggies -- and that’s what counts.
While we’re counting, we also note A&M failed to have a single player selected in the year’s NFL draft -- for the first time since 1971. With five road games against five bowl teams, let’s hope he has a better gauge at College Station.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Oklahoma (11/3)
TEXAS TECH (OFF - 4 / DEF - 5)
Team Theme: Holy $#!%
Mike Leach is not an overly religious man but we couldn’t help but overhear shouts of Hallelujah coming from his office this spring. That’s because, for the first time in five years, he will have the luxury of a returning starter at quarterback in 2007.
Junior QB Graham Harrell, 41-3 as a starter in high school and Player of the Year in Texas in 2003, led the conference in total offense last year. He also rallied his team from a seemingly insurmountable 31-point deficit to beat Minnesota in last year’s Insight Bowl.
Unfortunately the Red Raiders are woefully thin in other returning starter areas. Should the defense continue to make rapid strides, Leach will be praising the Lord by season’s end.
PLAY ON: vs. Baylor (11/3)