Big Money on Texas

**mmike032** · 01-07-10, 01:07 PM

looks to be an alternate line
look at the juice

**stevek173** · 01-07-10, 01:14 PM

FANTASTIC avatar!

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

They have no reason to lie to me. I don't think it is incredibly far fetched for someone to be hitting 65%. I am talking big pros in Vegas, not the guys who do this offshore and call themselves pros.

Do your thing.

**jjgold** · 01-07-10, 01:16 PM

Getting closer, man I am pumped.

**JIMBOK** · 01-07-10, 01:16 PM

yea i seen the juice....can we tell what big bets are comin in from that? could it be one big better buying up the line 10 points or somthin?

**LT Profits** · 01-07-10, 02:05 PM

No, it is a bad line feed that is mixing up the regular line with the alternate line.

**paco** · 01-07-10, 03:16 PM

HOOK EM HORNS!

**SamsonSharp** · 01-07-10, 03:36 PM

Well Ive gone with my knowledge of sports, and what I think "should" happen up to this point.
Now Im going to use my resources examine the line and try to figure out which is the better bet...

Big money on Texas, Publics on Bama Lang has bama....

Sharp bet says Texas... so

Texas +4.5
Texas ML

**wookieehumper** · 01-07-10, 03:46 PM

I am taking Texas and the points.

**ResortDog** · 01-07-10, 05:25 PM

Why Tex +4 was my bet 1 Unit and ML +165 2 Units:

1. Bama squares favor by 66% Line opened -6

2. Tex sharps moved in and line moved to +4

3. Heisman curse

4. Horns are 4-0 ATS as dogs on neutral turf

5. My personal belief is that a "super" quarter back can win a game in last minute when a "super" defense is tired and most vulnerable.

Go Longhorns (I'm a Cal grad BTW, no personal interest in the game)

**MartyMcFly** · 01-07-10, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by ResortDog

Why Tex +4 was my bet 1 Unit and ML +165 2 Units: 1. Bama squares favor by 66% Line opened -6 2. Tex sharps moved in and line moved to +4 3. Heisman curse 4. Horns are 4-0 ATS as dogs on neutral turf 5. My personal belief is that a "super" quarter back can win a game in last minute when a "super" defense is tired and most vulnerable. Go Longhorns (I'm a Cal grad BTW, no personal interest in the game)

Hook'em Horns! Lets go Texas!

**paste_me** · 01-07-10, 05:47 PM

01/07 12:08pm ALA XX TEXAS XX ALA-10.5 +200
01/07 12:09pm ALA XX TEXAS XX ALA-14.5

whoo what a confident person, but that is an alternative line... this might just be one of those crazy bets, don't look too much into it.

**Footballguru** · 01-07-10, 05:50 PM

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE BABY!!! -4 5dimes

**BECHunter** · 01-07-10, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by harlee71

If Tennessee can hold Alabama to 12 pts at home, Texas CAN out score Alabama.

Dude! Tennessee and Auburn are rival games. Using your same line of thinking UT struggled with Oklahoma, Nebraska, even Oklahoma State, and Colorado. Get your head out of your ass.

**krazey47409** · 01-07-10, 06:00 PM

yep public 65% on bama makes me like texas

**BECHunter** · 01-07-10, 06:03 PM

Saban > Mack Brown

Saban has been given a month to prepare for Texas. That is a scary thought.

**LAyZbOi** · 01-07-10, 06:30 PM

All over the longhorns tonight!!!

**moneymaker09** · 01-07-10, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by jayc88

it doesnt matter how big of a pro you are
no one will hit 65 % + on nba, nfl spreads over hundreds of plays

pretty sure u can...

**Jaug** · 01-07-10, 07:22 PM

Lang on bama, that does it for me. Texas it is

Also going big on under and if there is alot of points in 1st half prolly double down on under 2nd half.

**rousea** · 01-07-10, 07:38 PM

I really hope that many of you who have said in this thread, "well Lang has Bama or the public has Bama or the sharps have Texas or I'm not taking Bama b/c of the Heisman curse, etc." aren't making your pics soley b/c someone else picked one of the two teams.

I hope you're able to look at the matchup and make your own decision. Use the bits and pieces of info to help you, but if you're making your decision because of who someone else is taking, then you might as well flip a coin.

**JDUB07** · 01-07-10, 07:46 PM

Texas rollllllllllls

**Jaug** · 01-07-10, 07:50 PM

Originally posted by rousea

I really hope that many of you who have said in this thread, "well Lang has Bama or the public has Bama or the sharps have Texas or I'm not taking Bama b/c of the Heisman curse, etc." aren't making your pics soley b/c someone else picked one of the two teams.

I hope you're able to look at the matchup and make your own decision. Use the bits and pieces of info to help you, but if you're making your decision because of who someone else is taking, then you might as well flip a coin.

Don't underestimate the public perception. With 152k bets on record 72% of them are going on Alabama ATS. You are of course welcome to ignore this but some of us can make a profit by interpreting patterns.

**Lost Angel** · 01-07-10, 07:52 PM

I think there is one thing that Alabama is not going to be able to overcome tonight, to cover the 4 at the very least and that is that DangaLang, ZBoiz and....wait for it:

GETTING DOWN NOW!!!!

BAMA-3.5 35 UNIT HITT PLAY !!!!!
BAMA-- TEXAS OVER 46 35 UNIT HITT PLAY !!!!

GOOD LUCK

THEERODFATHER

are all on them.

I can only take The Horns and the points.

Theres no other option for me.

**Lost Angel** · 01-07-10, 07:54 PM

Basically I feel pretty good about it though.

**SamsonSharp** · 01-07-10, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by SamsonSharp

Well Ive gone with my knowledge of sports, and what I think "should" happen up to this point.
Now Im going to use my resources examine the line and try to figure out which is the better bet...

Big money on Texas, Publics on Bama Lang has bama....

Sharp bet says Texas... so

Texas +4.5
Texas ML

Of course the one time I go against what I think.

**BubbleBobble** · 01-07-10, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

Ok, this game actually came up when I called out to Vegas for my article. I am tracking this line move in the article. Here is an excerpt from the line moves section:

"So what about a game with a months worth of hype surrounding it? Here is Sharp #1's take on the Alabama/Texas National Championship contest:
"Most places opened this at Texas +6 or +5.5. A lot of big money came in on Texas early on forcing them to push the line as low as Alabama +4. However, in games like these, Super Bowls, BCS Bowls, etc. Big money will always come in early on a dog this high, no matter the teams. The bottom line is there is more value in the early line with the dog in big games. They know the line will sink and once it does they will either come over the top with Alabama for more money or hedge it completley with a shot at a small middle. Texas backers who missed out on the +6 decided to wait the line out as the difference between +4/+5/+5.5 is very minimal in football. They will wait as long as they can to try to get that line as high as they can. Most of the big money I have talked to is going on Alabama and since the +6 was too high to play for a Bama backer they had to put up a bet on Texas to start this line moving down. Most guys I have talked to either already came over the top on Alabama -4 but some are waiting until Thursday to see if bigger line services will release Texas and books will move the line to -3.5. Sure they are laying extra juice by betting both sides but they got 2 points of value making it well worth it."

Amazing how complex one game can be.

This is the best post i've read here on SBR.
Finally someone with a clue, LT Profits saying sharp money was on Texas is clueless. Everyone who thinks that sharps keep their Texas +6 bets is the prime example of someone who thinks line movements are that simple to read.
Too bad many on this board think he is good, geez he is a tout boys.

**Lost Angel** · 01-07-10, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by BubbleBobble

Everyone who thinks that sharps keep their Texas +6 bets is the prime example of someone who thinks line movements are that simple to read.

So say where and when Messiah.

Thats why I gave him a point for the post go give him a point too you cheapass pointhorading bum.

Get up offa point brokeass.

No in fact give him 5. don't make me come over there.

( most of this post is borrowed, just echoes of things others have said on the forum and in contest messages.

I do not have an original thought. )

**paco** · 01-07-10, 11:18 PM

Ofcourse refs will call PI on Texas bug not on alabama

**Pride>UFC** · 01-07-10, 11:20 PM

haha i told everyone bama

**The Seer** · 01-07-10, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by Pride>UFC

haha i told everyone bama

yeah, they look like the clear play vs a freshman backup QB, lol

**Lost Angel** · 01-07-10, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by paco

Ofcourse refs will call PI on Texas bug not on alabama

Like we need the fukkin refs fukkin with us now on top of all this other bullshit that has gone down huh paco

**Lost Angel** · 01-07-10, 11:29 PM

Damn and if we could just get 7 here we're pushin.

7 feels so remote though

Where the fukk is colt ** coy?

**paco** · 01-07-10, 11:39 PM

How bout a pik6?? That would ve soooo awesome!!

**LT Profits** · 01-08-10, 01:07 AM

Originally posted by BubbleBobble

This is the best post i've read here on SBR.
Finally someone with a clue, LT Profits saying sharp money was on Texas is clueless. Everyone who thinks that sharps keep their Texas +6 bets is the prime example of someone who thinks line movements are that simple to read.
Too bad many on this board think he is good, geez he is a tout boys.

Um, because I was right. LOL

If what you say is true and and more sharps head faked at +6 and went over the top at -4, then the line would have gone up again. Of course SOME sharps did do that, but the fact that books closed at -4 with 66% on Alabama means that most sharps were happy with their Texas positions.

I repeat, RLM without any new information such as injuries or weather is ALWAYS an indication of smart money, and yes it really is that simple. This is not to say that this information is useful after the fact, as the key is beating the line move.

**MartyMcFly** · 01-08-10, 01:11 AM

Congratulations on your pick LT, I guess history didn't repeat itself...

**LT Profits** · 01-08-10, 01:11 AM

Actually, Pinny and CRIS both closed at -3.5, further proving my point. The books did very well tonight.