Texas +4.5
Texas/ML
Texas/ML
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Texas for the win!Comment -
Advantages for Texas:
1. Won't get crushed by Alabama's run defense. Texas is a pure passing team.
2. Defense can frustrate Ingram. Texas is well positioned to stop the run.
Advantages for Alabama:
1. Epic team speed. This is one of the fastest NCAAF teams of all time.
2. Much stronger offensive line. Texas' offensive line is by far the weakest unit on the field.
This game will probably be decided along the lines. I expect both defensive lines to dominate, particularly Alabama's. I can see either team winning, but God only knows how we are getting to 46 points.
The play here is Under 46.Comment -
I wanted to ask you this about these percentages because a Google of RLM (or maybe the whole phrase or something near to it) has an article you wrote a while back coming up, like, #1 on the search result or something crazy like total 'SEO' like folks pay big money to getThat's exactly how you know that sharps are on Texas here. The money bet by 33% of the bettors (sharps) far outweighs the money bet by 67% of the bettors (squares).
Therefore, I would not say that the "66% means nothing", as I think knowing that percentage makes it easy to figure out where the smart money is.
Despite all of this, my stupid money is with the squares.
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How does one decipher what line these percentages of bettors are in at?
or does it not so much matter?
Just seems to me if a line opens at say +6 and gets hammered then is dropped to +3.5 and percentages show 66% on the dog that knowing what of that 66% has +6 or +5.5 would be important.
Naturally percent on the fave is gonna rise as line is dropped but...I just feel like I need more info on a percentage....like what line they got. Naturally seeing the $ on each side would be great but I guess thats not possible.
I've always wondered this though....what number is the majority of this 66% in at?
That givemeaBJ dude had a good post......have to go back and give him a point.
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I have never been so mixed about a game in my life. Perhaps, it's because I am biased. I am a resident of the state of Alabama and had the opportunity to watch Alabama play live against Florida. Talk about total domination. After the game I was able to watch the remainder of the Texas game and they looked weak.... It's like this for me... If the game was played within a week or so of the SEC championship I liked Bama beating Texas easily. However, after adding everything up and being torn over this I can't help, but see Texas winning the game or at the least covering.Comment -
I like Bama big in this game but only 1 thing worries me. Did Bama blow their wad in the SECCG? They obviously prepared most of their season to beat UF and that could spell trouble.
but what keeps sticking in my craw is that UT was a better team last year then this year and they barely beat an OSU team that was worse last year then this year. Then UF beats Oklahoma and UF was better overall this year then last year and Bama dominated UF this year. I think Bama is the much more physical team and they can control both lines of scrimmage. In almost every bowl game, the team that controlled the LOS, won the game. Has any team controlled the LOS against Bama? No, but they had some battles. I saw UT lose the LOS against NB, Texas A&M and even UCF for a bit. I really think it will take some type of tricks in order for UT to beat Bama but Mack Brown is too conservative. For that reason I love Bama.Comment -
Also, in my most recent memories over the decade I have had some nice cashes taking the underdog in the title game. Seems to work more than not. In my opinion this game is a coin flip so it would be wise value play to take Texas ML.. They have just as good a chance as winning as Alabama. I hope this is a good game, but like one poster mentioned most title games have been pretty one sided.Comment -
George Bush and his crew will make sure Texas gets all the calls and trust me, sorry badnina, but Colt McCoy will raise that trophy in the air at the end of the game
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i dont even like reading all these threads and responses to them. no matter what ant1 says this game can go either way. as far as i am concerned it should be a pik. so i am goin tx all the way hook em hornsComment -
This is certainly what we have seen. The time off benefits defenses, guys get healthy teams can game plan endlessly for an opponent, watch tape till they're googly-eyed.
'Bama defense is gonna come damn STRONG in this game.
Their early-midseason struggles to produce when they got into the Red Zone is what I am trying to reconcile....with the Mississippi State game they seemed to overcome those struggles and this was much less an issue thereafter but at one point in the season they were abysmal from within the Red Zone
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I'm on Texas... even teams imo so I'll take the points.Comment -
I see Texas playing well early and stopping Alabama's run. In this period it is imperative Texas take a good lead on Alabama. I see this game getting ugly for Texas in the 4th quarter... Not a blowout by any means, but I would expect to see Alabama exert ther will on Texas late. At this time you will see Alabama 3 headed monster Backfield falling for 4,5,6 yds a carry. Texas will be facing the most physical team they have faced all year. I don't think they can compete in the 4th quarter with Alabama. I respect Texas and expect them to take Bama to the brink. They will be the best team and matchup for Bama this year, but the run it down your throat physical mentality of Alabama will be too much in the 4th quarter for Texas.
For all Texas Backers... Ask yourself this.. Is Texas gonna have a nice lead heading into the 4thQ?? My opinion Texas will have to have the lead going into the 4th quarter, preferably by a touchdown or more.Comment -
In Mr. Odom's contest I took Texas and the Over because I think Alabama will cover and it will stay Under.Comment -
Taking Texas Big, like taking points in evenly matched teams
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Texas Win, looking forward to this game.Comment -
Don't see Tex scoring much on Alabama. Under and Alabama is my impression.bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
Anyone on Cincy for anything less than +30 IS DULL AS HELL!!!!!!!!!Comment -
Trends against Heisman winner -
Teams w/Heisman winner last 10 bowl game results -
3-7(30%) straight up
2-8(20%) against the spread
When favored -
3-5(37%) straight up
2-6(25%) against the spread
Teams w/Heisman winner last 10 in bowl game that determined National Champion -
1-6(14%) straight up
1-6(14%) against the spread
When favored -
1-4(20%) straight up
1-4(20%) against the spreadComment -
7 players in the last 10 years have won the heisman & went to play in NC. Leinart only one to win bothComment -
that's some great info!! i've said it since ingram won that he is the most ridiculous heisman winner i remember... it was almost like they didn't want to give it to anyone and by laziness they gave it to him... i'm not impressed - it should of been suh, mccoy, tebow, or gerhart.... anybody but ingram. these stats just make his chances look worse...Comment -
Who has Texas beat all year? The Big 12 and their stelllar defenses?
Louisiana Monroe?
UTEP?
UCF?
Wyoming?
The 2nd best team in Big 12 Okie State couldnt' beat Ole Miss when They gave them 5 turnovers?
Sometimes you have to see the big picture outside the game to make the best decision.Comment -
most these folks cant see the forest for the trees, all they read is Texas averages so many points a game, has the #1 rush defense in the NCAA nevermind they play in the Big 12.
I'll go with the team that has proved they can beat above average to top teams.
McElroy's never been in this big of a game....
has McCoy ever played in this big a game
although McElroy played steller in the SECC agaisnt a top 3 defenseive team in FLA.
MCCoy has choked against every top defense he's faced this year cause his line cant protect him.........
the title stay in the SEC once again, its just taking a short trip across the FLA/Bama borderComment -
Dead wrong Ralphie. Just how many times have you been to Vegas? Vegas is NEVER backed into a hole, especially in a game of this magnatude. Unlesss you guys have been to Vegas, and actually worked in a Sportsbook or know the details as to how it is really run, you really should keep opinions as to what Vegqs is doing to yourselves. Only amateurs try to outguess what Vegas books are doing, and it never pays off. So let's clear the air here. First, you have no idea of how many people or how much money is going on either side as far as Vegas is concerned. They do not release that information. The information you are getting is from some offshore book that does not take in 1/10th of the action that Vegas does. Second, it does not matter how many people are on a game. The only thing that matters is where the money is going. So don't waste your time trying to outguess Vegas. They are a lot sharper than anyone in here will ever be. That is why they consistantly win. They know that they are in business to make money, not to gamble. If you want proof, just look at the line differential. In Vegas, it is from 3.5 to 4.5. Off shore, it is almost universally at 4.0.Comment -
Not sure if I touch this game! Good luck to everyone!Comment -
Everywhere I read on the forums Texas seems to be the majority pick....so Alabama -4 for me...not large. They beat Florida and Tebow, thats good enough for me. Texas had a very hard time beating Nebraska....and Suh. Good luck to allComment -
I love my Texas Hide. Go longhorns final score 30-7Comment -
IMO this game screams under. But since I hate playing the total I will probably make a small bet on the under and a small parlay Bama/Under. GL to everyone.......except those who have Tex or the Over! hahaha
I have been horrible this bowl season...might even fade myself!Comment -
hope your streak continues... i'm on texasComment -
LT and GIMEABJ....
what do u think it means when the line reprts like this at the casinos... this is from m resort per vegasinsider.
01/07 10:47am ALA XX TEXAS XX ALA-4 -110 TEXAS+4 -110 ALA-2.5 TEXAS+2.5
01/07 12:00pm ALA-180 TEXAS+160 ALA-4 -110 TEXAS+4 -110 +46 +46 ALA-2.5 TEXAS+2.5
01/07 12:04pm ALA-180 TEXAS+160 ALA-4 -110 TEXAS+4 -110 +46 +46 ALA-2.5 TEXAS+2.5
01/07 12:08pm ALA XX TEXAS XX ALA-10.5 +200 TEXAS+10.5 -240 +43.5 -145 +43.5 +125 ALA-2.5 TEXAS+2.5
01/07 12:09pm ALA XX TEXAS XX ALA-14.5 +290 TEXAS+14.5 -350 +48.5 +125 +48.5 -145 ALA-2.5 TEXAS+2.5
01/07 12:16pm ALA XX TEXAS XX ALA-4 -110 TEXAS+4 -110 +46 +125 +46 -145 ALA-2.5 TEXAS+2.5
01/07 12:24pm ALA XX TEXAS XX ALA-2.5 -160 TEXAS+2.5 +140 +46 +125 +46 -145 ALA-2.5 TEXAS+2.5
01/07 12:25pm ALA XX TEXAS XX ALA-6.5 +120 TEXAS+6.5 -140 +46 +125 +46 -145 ALA-2.5 TEXAS+2.5
01/07 12:30pm ALA-180 TEXAS+160 ALA-4 -110 TEXAS+4 -110 +46 +125 +46 -145 ALA-2.5 TEXAS+2.5
01/07 12:36pm ALA-180 TEXAS+160 ALA-4 -110 TEXAS+4 -110 +46 +125 +46 -145 ALA-2.5 TEXAS+2.5
bama goes to minus 14.5 then back to 4Comment
