Sagarin College Bowl System Plays

[tblues2005]

snapstick I hope so it will pay for the computer. I have an awful lot of futures on the NFC and AFC in the NFL. If the right teams come through I will be able to say I get to have this computer out of that. Yes if I do a parlay of what you have left and hit it that would be huge.

[tblues2005]

with the points I have everything now until the end of the year to win 10 points. If these do win I will have enough points to get a $100 free play from Bet Jamaica hopefully. That is my goal to put on NFL playoff bets if I win out of the points. 2-0 so far is huge. I just hope it continues!

[snapstick]

[tblues2005]

snapstick,

I was given some free play for being a loyal player at Bet Jam. So I put it flat on your 10 teams that you have left and on top of that I parlayed it to win $851.00 if all ten hit. Wish us luck! It sure has worked well so far. Let's hope this works as well as last year. Let's all hope we get to all the way to the bank!

[snapstick]

[snapstick]

Good Luck.

[snapstick]

See everyone tomorrow night.

[IrishTim]

But you said that you already played games on the original list, which had UCF as the choice. Does that mean you middled the game out? Now either you wagered on the games when they came out, loke you said, or you did not. You can't have it both ways. Two games into the system and the records differ, depending on when you allegedly make your wagers. That is not going to cut it.

Agreed, I'd be willing to wager that most people put in these games as soon as the first batch was posted. My guess is most people lost on UCF.

[snapstick]

Agreed, I'd be willing to wager that most people put in these games as soon as the first batch was posted. My guess is most people lost on UCF.

Thanks for your input.

[tblues2005]

Irish I bet on UCF and then when it got changed then I just did it the other way and then took a little bit of a loss but it was not that bad. I am just glad I corrected it before the game started.

[THE PROFIT]

with the points I have everything now until the end of the year to win 10 points. If these do win I will have enough points to get a $100 free play from Bet Jamaica hopefully. That is my goal to put on NFL playoff bets if I win out of the points. 2-0 so far is huge. I just hope it continues!

I've been betting in the SBR book too, it's alot of fun. Came close to winning the week 15 NFL contest for 400 points but got knocked out of first cause the other guy close to me had giants & I had played all mine already. Still got 120! Only problem is you have to roll that free $100 4x for it to be your money. I want to get a free play before the bowls are over. I have almost 400 points now.

[IrishTim]

Thanks for your input.

You can skew the record to make it say whatever you want, but most people betting lost on UCF and the record won't show it.

[mtomto]

FYI/FWIW--Obviously this System has been around awhile, and is usually the case, no one can find the stone where the rules are carved or who originated it (it isn't Jeff Sagarin, as he doesn't account for point spreads in his rating like handicappers do).

Anyway, another 'version' of what the OP has hear ADDS a filter, that says the SOS differential must be +15 to the good of the team being wagerd ATS. What that does is put the screws down even harder, producing fewer plays with the assumption (ass u and me) they are better screened. Just a different wrinkle is anyone wants to think that way. It's all pretty interesting, just a shame we all can't find a similiar way to manage the regular season.the OP

At the end of the day it's a great tool at a minimum if you're using it in conjunction with supensions, new injuries, etc. Someone is always out past curdew or playing grabbing azz and getting hurt suddenly. If there is a sudden loss of very key personnel, I'm off the game or re-evaluate. To each his own.

No matter either way, because what the OP posted has produced Eye Popping results the last few years, so who's to question that!!!

GL to the OP an everyone. Happy Bowling! l

[dvb02]

Agreed, I'd be willing to wager that most people put in these games as soon as the first batch was posted. My guess is most people lost on UCF.

Yes, I lost out because I put in my play early on and I was out of town when the correction was posted. However, Snapstick is correct. He and the system are 2-0. If I had been in town, I would have doubled up on Rutgers and would also have won on both of the first 2 plays. It is what it is.

Snapstick, you are doing a great job. Thanks and please keep it up.

[snapstick]

sorry dvb

[snapstick]

You can skew the record to make it say whatever you want, but most people betting lost on UCF and the record won't show it.

Im not skewing anything bro. I spent time on this and did the best i coud and posted the correction as soon as i realized their was an error. I really do not care for people such as yourself that go into threads looking for something to argue about. This isnt my system and i wont take credit for the record if its god or bad. The record is a reflection of the correct plays and it really doesnt matter to me what you think. I corrected the plays as soon as i thought their was an error and i apologized for it. The record would have been skewed if i didnt correct the plays. Yes, some might have not seen the correction but as far as the system record at 2-0, it is correct as far as the system in this thread. Happy Holidays and i hope you have more more of a kind, understanding heart in the future. I need to realize there will always people like yourself floating around these forums.

[BigdaddyQH]

So what you are saying is that you are NOT 2-0. You are 2-1, counting the correction. Aparently there was an error in the system which you are taking credit for correcting, but the damage had already been done to people in here following the system. So the correction gives everyone a 1-1 record. That is what Irish meant by skewing your record. I have known Irish for a while now, and he is not a spiteful person. He just tells it like it is. I am sure that there was nothing personal.

Now getting back to business. Just to be sure that we have a complete understanding, and that there are no more screw ups in the system, the play for tonight would be Oregon State and the play for tomorrow night would be Cal. Is that correct?

[snapstick]

Updated Final Sagarin Bowl System Plays:

My lines posted are the opening lines from the book i use.

There were several changes regarding Sagarin Rank's and SOS's.

There were 2 games deleted after the final Sagarin update. If you already played the 2 deleted games you can hedge the wager and just lose the juice if you care to. (Florida and South Florida)

There were 2 games in which the side we were playing switched to the other team as the play. If you already played the game double your wager and play the other side if you care to. (Central Florida and Troy are now a fade)

There was 1 game added. (Ohio State/Oregon)

Good luck and if you see any discreprncies let us know so we can make sure everyone is on the same page. I suppose next season i shouldnt post the plays until after the Army/Navy game..



Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-62) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-76) (Wyoming 35-28)
Play #2: Rutgers -3 (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-85) vs. Central Florida (Sagarin Rating-62, SOS Rank-91)
(Rutgers 45-24)
Play #3: Oregon State -1 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-15) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-20) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-81)
Play #5: Nevada -14.5 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 86) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-89, SOS Rank-94)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2.5 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-16) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-37, SOS Rank-71)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
Play #8: Missouri -6 (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-56) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: LSU +3 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-18) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-80)
Play #10: Oregon -3.5 (Sagarin Rating-5, SOS Rank-7) vs. Ohio State (Sagarin Rating-12, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Arkansas -7 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-66)
Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)
Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)



Sagarin System Plays: 2-0, 100%

I wont respond to the trolls any further. The next play is Oregon State tonight, good luck to all who are playing the system.

[tcarn01]

So what you are saying is that you are NOT 2-0. You are 2-1, counting the correction. Aparently there was an error in the system which you are taking credit for correcting, but the damage had already been done to people in here following the system. So the correction gives everyone a 1-1 record. That is what Irish meant by skewing your record. I have known Irish for a while now, and he is not a spiteful person. He just tells it like it is. I am sure that there was nothing personal.

Now getting back to business. Just to be sure that we have a complete understanding, and that there are no more screw ups in the system, the play for tonight would be Oregon State and the play for tomorrow night would be Cal. Is that correct?

You are genious and can read. Good job....

[tblues2005]

Hey snapstick the line has dropped with Nevada on play #5 at least with my book they have. Good Job on your picks so far and lets hope that it comes through tonight.

[snapstick]

You are genious and can read. Good job....

I did make an error posting the system before the Army/Navy game but i was hoping 4 days was enough time for everyone to read the post in which i updated the plays with the final Sagarin rankings. Some people here just like to cause hate and discontent, thats what they do and that was the reason for his post tcarn. The best way to deal with those type of people is just not respond. GL

[snapstick]

Hey snapstick the line has dropped with Nevada on play #5 at least with my book they have. Good Job on your picks so far and lets hope that it comes through tonight.

It dropped because i read their top rusher was declared ineligible for academic reasons and their backup running back was injured and wont play but Nevada is still the play. I didnt confirm this info but this might be the reason the line has dropped.

[tcarn01]

It is the reason the line has dropped. I think you have to stick w/ the system. It's is doing good so far. BOL to everyone and yes snapstick that is why I sent that last post. Sick and tired of all the haters. Wish they would go to a seperate forum for immature people.

[Hoja Verdes]

On Oregon State -2.5 +106

[Capitolgains]

I think I know what this term means

I think I know what this term means....FADE every team ...What is the definition of FADE in your post?
Thanks for your time and your picks.

FYI: These selections are not from my handicapping....these plays are the Sagarin SOS formula. Using the top 60 Sagarin rated teams, FADE every team whose SOS rating is 60 or worse UNLESS THEY ARE PLAYING A TEAM WITH A SOS EVEN HIGHER THAN THEIRS.

2006: 7-1, 88%
2007: 11-1, 92%
2008: 12-5, 71%
(30-7 81%)


I have completed the leg work and the above plays are what i came up with. Comments are welcome and if think i made a mistake let me know.

[snapstick]

Fade is wager against.

[IrishTim]

Im not skewing anything bro. I spent time on this and did the best i coud and posted the correction as soon as i realized their was an error. I really do not care for people such as yourself that go into threads looking for something to argue about. This isnt my system and i wont take credit for the record if its god or bad. The record is a reflection of the correct plays and it really doesnt matter to me what you think. I corrected the plays as soon as i thought their was an error and i apologized for it. The record would have been skewed if i didnt correct the plays. Yes, some might have not seen the correction but as far as the system record at 2-0, it is correct as far as the system in this thread. Happy Holidays and i hope you have more more of a kind, understanding heart in the future. I need to realize there will always people like yourself floating around these forums.

Look at some of my past posts and you'll see I'm pretty damn close to the exact opposite of a troll. The object of the forums is to make people money and this system is not going to make people long-term. I am trying to warn people of this and save them money long-term. It may be a useful tool in handicapping a game or maybe to be used as a filter for one's plays, but to bet this system blindly--without any regard to the line--is foolish.

[masquer]

goo gooo

[tcarn01]

irishtim. = DON'T USE THE SYSTEM THEN. YOU IDIOT!!!!!!!!!!!!! LET PEOPLE DECIDE FOR THEMSELVES.....NOT YOU TO JUDGE WHAT PEOPLE DO W/ THERE MONEY. THEY CAN FOLLOW THE SYSTEM, USE THE ANALYSIS TO MAKE THEIR OWN DECISION, OR FADE EVERY PICK. Who the fukkk are you to come in here and tell someone that a system that has gone 2-0 and previously done well to not follow the system. If you don't want to.. FUKKKKNNN don't

[IrishTim]

You're hopeless. I'm going back to the think tank where people actually made withdrawals and not deposits unlike everyone in this thread.

[snapstick]

Look at some of my past posts and you'll see I'm pretty damn close to the exact opposite of a troll. The object of the forums is to make people money and this system is not going to make people long-term. I am trying to warn people of this and save them money long-term. It may be a useful tool in handicapping a game or maybe to be used as a filter for one's plays, but to bet this system blindly--without any regard to the line--is foolish.

You cant argue the track record this system has...OK...you point was made, and i understand this site is here to make people money and thats why i spend my time posting plays here and on other sports forums, thanks and GL

[snapstick]

You're hopeless. I'm going back to the think tank where people actually made withdrawals and not deposits unlike everyone in this thread.

Im glad you think you know what people do with their money but if you put me in that category your mistaken as i make enough money to pay your rent check and probably your car payment. Post like yours make absolutely no sense and these childish posts are what bring the mods in. If you have positive comments that help people make money, since you said thats why your here we would be glad to hear it but i have yet to see any such thing from you. GL

[GGPLAYER]

It dropped because i read their top rusher was declared ineligible for academic reasons and their backup running back was injured and wont play but Nevada is still the play. I didnt confirm this info but this might be the reason the line has dropped.

I wondered why the line was falling thru the floor. I grabbed it at -13.5 and thought I was getting some good value there until I saw it was -12.5 today.

[hhsilver]

Look at some of my past posts and you'll see I'm pretty damn close to the exact opposite of a troll. The object of the forums is to make people money and this system is not going to make people long-term. I am trying to warn people of this and save them money long-term. It may be a useful tool in handicapping a game or maybe to be used as a filter for one's plays, but to bet this system blindly--without any regard to the line--is foolish.

I agree with IrishTim. Sure, SOS might be used in some cases (along with other factors) --- but, look at this game :

Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

Both are ranked high and both have low SOS --- 82 and 98 . This is hardly a reason (if it is the only reason ) to pick one team over another. 82 and 98 SOS are essentially the same. Please think about it and don't say "the record speaks for itself."

This reminds of the time I did an experiment and flipped a coin 30 times. I got 21 heads. I guess I had a system I could begin to use if only I could have found a sucker to let me have heads on every subsequent flip.

[dvb02]

sorry dvb

Not your fault. Like I said, I appreciate everything you have done in this thread.