Sagarin College Bowl System Plays

[gameztyme]

Thanks Snap. I will be tailing you

[snapstick]

The worse record this sysyem has had the past 5 years is 12-5, 71%. i would be satisfied with a 70% win rate this bowl season. There only 14 plays but i will just sit out the other games and enjoy watching them with a brew with no money at stake. GL

[snapstick]

I will try to do some deeper research to locate the records for the system pre 2005 and see what i can come up with. If anyone can do the same and find something post it here.

[snapstick]

Just a article about Mr. Sagarin:

http://rolandallen.com/000854.html

http://blogs.ajc.com/techfans/2009/11/21/comparing-sagarin-and-sos-on-an-off-week/

[goblue12]

Can you show me proof that it hit 88% in 2006-07?

I know it was successful last year and the year before. After backtracking the system through Sagarin's database, but it looks like this system got killed in 2006-07 unless the numbers DRASTICALLY CHANGED after the bowls. Ditto to 2005-06, where it went sub.500

[griffdog]

Excellent work Snap. I don't think I'll be on all of these, but I certainly like Oregon State, Cal, Missouri, Miami, and South Florida. Nevada and Arkansas look like good bets as well.

[incomeraise]

Can you show me proof that it hit 88% in 2006-07?

I know it was successful last year and the year before. After backtracking the system through Sagarin's database, but it looks like this system got killed in 2006-07 unless the numbers DRASTICALLY CHANGED after the bowls. Ditto to 2005-06, where it went sub.500

can anybody confirm the 06-07 record?

[Formulawiz]

These plays look exactly the same as posted by another poster at another forum....so i was just curious...

Yes I believe the Bowl system and plays were posted by me over a week ago on my NFL and Pro Hoops thread. But its good to see other individuals helping us all out.

[Bluehorseshoe]

Yes I believe the Bowl system and plays were posted by me over a week ago on my NFL and Pro Hoops thread. But its good to see other individuals helping us all out.

Actually, Machine Choice was the poster who's posted this the past three years here.

[Pin Fish]

This IS the system it only deals with SOS and not games with both teams rankings under 60


Here it is: Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs. Take every top 60 team whose SOS is better than 60 AND who is facing an oponent whose SOS is worse than 60.

Any game where you have a team not ranked in the top 60 as a pick over a team ranked in the top 60 does not fit the model........

[snapstick]

Yes I believe the Bowl system and plays were posted by me over a week ago on my NFL and Pro Hoops thread. But its good to see other individuals helping us all out.

I dont read your NFL and pro hoops thread bro so i wouldnt know . I have played this system for the past 2 years and thus my post for this year. This post has nothing to do with your post on another thread. If you would like to make a NCAAF post with this info contained in it i would be glad to post on it. At the time and date i made this post i didnt see any other poster with this same post. GL to you and next year if you would like to do the research on the plays with the info i posted i would be most gratefull, as it would save me alot of time it took me to provide this info.

[snapstick]

Can you show me proof that it hit 88% in 2006-07?

I know it was successful last year and the year before. After backtracking the system through Sagarin's database, but it looks like this system got killed in 2006-07 unless the numbers DRASTICALLY CHANGED after the bowls. Ditto to 2005-06, where it went sub.500

If you state where it got killed post a link to prove that statement.

[snapstick]

Actually, Machine Choice was the poster who's posted this the past three years here.

If he would like to post the plays for this year i would be glad to post on his thread...not sure what your pont is?

[snapstick]

This IS the system it only deals with SOS and not games with both teams rankings under 60


Here it is: Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs. Take every top 60 team whose SOS is better than 60 AND who is facing an oponent whose SOS is worse than 60.

Any game where you have a team not ranked in the top 60 as a pick over a team ranked in the top 60 does not fit the model........

None of the official plays i posted involve teams ranked OUTSIDE the top 60 in the sagarin rankings. Not sure what the point is?

[snapstick]

[quote=Pin Fish;2737565]This IS the system it only deals with SOS and not games with both teams rankings under 60


Here it is: Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs. Take every top 60 team whose SOS is better than 60 AND who is facing an oponent whose SOS is worse than 60.

Any game where you have a team not ranked in the top 60 as a pick over a team ranked in the top 60 does not fit the model........[/quote]

You are wrong with that statement. UNLESS THRY ARE FACING A TEAM WHOSE SOS RANKING IS EVEN LOWER THAN THEEIRS. If you quote it...follow it. Like i said earlier...Play the games you like...If you dont agree with the official plays and want to split hairs dont play those games, It doesnt matter to me. I posted the official plays. Play what you wish. But as far as the model the plays I posted are the correct plays!

[Bluehorseshoe]

If he would like to post the plays for this year i would be glad to post on his thread...not sure what your pont is?

The point is, he should get credit for posting it in here.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/127598-bowl-system-went-10-2-last-year.html

[snapstick]

can anybody confirm the 06-07 record?

The 2006-2007 record was 7-1, 88%. If you have info to the contrary post it.

[minet123]

Cash'em BIG snapstick

[snapstick]

Yes I believe the Bowl system and plays were posted by me over a week ago on my NFL and Pro Hoops thread. But its good to see other individuals helping us all out.

Im not sure why you would post a COLLEGE FOOTBALL system in YOUR NBA and NFL forum but if you did im not sure what that matters. This is the Sagarin system and plays i posted in the NCAAF forum last week and i did so so it can be discussed and so we can all hopefully make cash on the plays. I dont want any credit for the plays as it isnt my system and isnt your system. I just decided to take a few hours out of my day to try to help others and post a system others might not have heard of. GL

[snapstick]

The point is, he should get credit for posting it in here.
http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...last-year.html

I dont give a damn who posted this last year. Ok....What kind of credit should i give him. I posted the plays and did the reasearch to help others.

[snapstick]

Cash'em BIG snapstick

There will always be the posters who want credit for their posts. There will always be the posters who want every stat confirmed. Thats fine..but im here to do the research for THIS YEAR and post the OFFICIAL PLAYS FOR THIS BOWL SEASON. I dont want any credit just here to help others.

[Bluehorseshoe]

There will always be the posters who want credit for their posts. There will always be the posters who want every stat confirmed. Thats fine..but im here to do the research for THIS YEAR and post the OFFICIAL PLAYS FOR THIS BOWL SEASON. I dont want any credit just here to help others.

Research? It was posted across the street long before you posted in here.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=731964

[snapstick]

And what is your point. If you want to site another forum on SBR then go to that site and make a name for yourself. Im not sure what your point is. Show me another post on any other forum that shows exactly the research i did with the plays i posted. I posted the plays with my own format. What the hell is your point? Go to therx and make a name for yourself. I happen to enjoy this forum here at SBR..Im not looking for credit for any post i make im simply here to help others. If your here to waste your time with comparing and contrasting different posts from different forums i feel sorry for you. GL

[snapstick]

Final Sagarin Bowl System Plays:


Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-57) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-74)
Play #2: UCF +2.5 (Sagarin Rating-61, SOS Rank-85) vs. Rutgers (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-100)
Play #3: Oregon State -1.5 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-21) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-17) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-35, SOS Rank-73)
Play #5: Nevada -14 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 82) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-88, SOS Rank-90)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-18) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-68)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-92) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-97)
Play #8: Missouri PK (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-50) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-79)
Play #9: LSU +2.5 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-16) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-83)
Play #10: Arkansas -7.5 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-50, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Troy +4 (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-106) vs. C. Michigan (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-111)
Play #12: Florida -10 (Sagarin Rating-2, SOS Rank-27) vs. Cincinati (Sagarin Rating-6, SOS Rank-63)
Play #13: S. Florida -3 (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-62) vs. N. Illinois (Sagarin Rating-87, SOS Rank-121)
Play #14: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-84) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

I didnt include the date of the games but they are in order of games played from top to bottom. ie, Play #1 is the first game played and so on.

Again...to shuffle through the bs and the others who want to take credit for a system they didnt invent....these are the official plays for this year..like'em or not. Play 1 or play them all i dont really care. I posted the plays and the stats and rankings including SOS with each play.

[goblue12]

The 2006-2007 record was 7-1, 88%. If you have info to the contrary post it.

I'm trying to give you the benefit of the doubt here on this one and a chance to post some information to back you up on your claim, but thus far all you have said is "prove it". Sorry, you have no information and are going off second hand data, so I will gladly expose you for the fraud that you are.

I have personally went back into SBR Odds History + the 2006 Sagarin database sheet, went through the plays, and it did not hit anywhere close the 88% that you quoted.

Here is the link to the Sagarin data from 2006-07:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt06.htm

Here is the link to the bowls in 2006-07:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/9443142

Here is the link to the SBR Lines History starting on December 19th, 2006 (first bowl game of the season:

http://www.sbrforum.com/Scores/NCAAF+Odds/20061219.aspx

And finally, here is a link to the Covers.com website for the respective plays (South Florida - East Carolina, Utah - Tulsa) that you will not find in the SBR Lines History:

South Florida:covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/teams/pastresults/2006-2007/team204.html

Utah: covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/teams/pastresults/2006-2007/team93.html

Based on all the information provided in the links above, these were the plays and the results of the system...

Alamo Bowl: Iowa (51, 34 SOS) +9 VS. Texas (19, 61 SOS) WINNER
Poinsettia Bowl: TCU (26, 85 SOS) -12.5 VS. N. Illinois (85,109 SOS) WINNER
PapaJohns.com Bowl: South Florida 31 62 -5 VS. East Carolina 67 76 WINNER
Insight Bowl: Minnesota (48, 19 SOS) +9 VS. Texas Tech (36, 66 SOS) WINNER
Holiday Bowl:California (8, 9 SOS) -3.5 VS. Texas A&M (39, 64 SOS) WINNER
Armed Forces Bowl: Utah (46, 73 SOS) -2.5 Tulsa (65, 92 SOS) WINNER
Liberty Bowl: South Carolina (24, 16 SOS) -4.5 VS. Houston (54, 100 SOS) WINNER
Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma (16, 32 SOS) -7.5 VS. Boise State (6, 90 SOS) LOSER
Capital One Bowl: Arkansas (14, 26 SOS) -3.5 VS. (Wisconsin 9, 82 SOS) LOSER
Hawaii Bowl: Arizona State (40, 11 SOS +8.5 VS. Hawaii (23, 98 SOS) LOSER
Independence Bowl:Alabama (55,30 SOS) +2 VS. Oklahoma St. (41,63 SOS) LOSER
Sun Bowl: Oregon State (20, 15 SOS) -3.5 VS. Missouri (42, 72 SOS) LOSER
Car Care Bowl: Boston College (25, 44 SOS) -8.5 VS. Navy (47, 87 SOS) LOSER
Humanitarian Bowl: Miami-FL ( 49, 69 SOS) -4 VS. Nevada ( 58, 94 SOS) LOSER
Motor City Bowl: Mid.Tenn St. (87, 93 SOS +9 VS. C. Mich (56, 97 SOS) LOSER
Las Vegas Bowl: Oregon (35, 6 SOS) +3.5 VS. BYU (13, 74 SOS) LOSER

It went 7-9 (43%), not 7-1 (88%). You have no information on the contrary and are telling a lie right now. That's why you stalled for a response to the question from me instead of posting anything that would have supported your claim to this system. It didn't have a winning year in '05 either. You can either take my word for it (knowing that I care enough to backtrack a system to see if it truly hits this mark) or figure the plays out on your own.

[M.W.]

Research? It was posted across the street long before you posted in here.

At least Snapstick can read the system's parameters and apply them correctly. "Across the street", the poster has plays on Nevada and USF, even though they don't qualify. Why are people giving Snapstick such a hard time?

[snapstick]

At least Snapstick can read the system's parameters and apply them correctly. "Across the street", the poster has plays on Nevada and USF, even though they don't qualify. Why are people giving Snapstick such a hard time?

Because they have othing better to do with their lives than spend it doing wastefull stuff like this. There are 2 choices here. Play the games i listed for THIS year which are official system plays or dont play them...go make your own bogus thread...and go from there. GOBLUE anyone can go back with some falsifications and post the SOS and rankings from sagarin from 4 years ago and say the record was 0-11. Unless you had a post with the plays and the information contained therin in you post then you should actually spend the 4 hours it took you to post your BS and actually cap your own games and post responses to threads that actually help people make their wagers. I do not make posts to defend any point for people like you. I post plays and do the research to help others. Its sad there are always people like you floating around...not trying to help others but rather your only purpose in posting is because you have nothing better to do in such a boring life. As i stated in an earlier post in this thread this is only my 3rd year playing this system and i can vouch for those years...other than that the records i posted are based on the research i did and information from other posters i know quite well that played this system prior and the results were verified by them. If you have a problem with that or have nothing better to do then post bs info thats ok with me. Dont play the games i posted. THESE ARE THE PLAYS FOR THIS BOWL SEASON. IF YOU WANT TO PLAY 1 OF THEM....4 OF THEM....OR ALL OF THEM I DONT GIVE A DAMN....but use your time wisely...dont waste your time.

And by the way...i didnt respond to your idiotic post sooner because i happen to have a family including 6 kids i take care of and i probably dont sit around the computer all day looking for others to bash as you do.

[snapstick]

Final Sagarin Bowl System Plays:


Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-57) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-74)
Play #2: UCF +2.5 (Sagarin Rating-61, SOS Rank-85) vs. Rutgers (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-100)
Play #3: Oregon State -1.5 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-21) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-17) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-35, SOS Rank-73)
Play #5: Nevada -14 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 82) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-88, SOS Rank-90)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-18) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-68)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-92) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-97)
Play #8: Missouri -6.5 (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-50) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-79)
Play #9: LSU +2.5 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-16) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-83)
Play #10: Arkansas -7.5 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-50, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Troy +4 (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-106) vs. C. Michigan (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-111)
Play #12: Florida -10 (Sagarin Rating-2, SOS Rank-27) vs. Cincinati (Sagarin Rating-6, SOS Rank-63)
Play #13: S. Florida -3 (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-62) vs. N. Illinois (Sagarin Rating-87, SOS Rank-121)
Play #14: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-84) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

I didnt include the date of the games but they are in order of games played from top to bottom. ie, Play #1 is the first game played and so on.

For all of the degenerates who have no time to post positive, informative comments here are the plays again for the 2009-2010 season and this will be the last post in this matter. If you have nothing better to do with your life except to spend it making up bs thats fine with me. I actually do this for a living and i do quite well...which means i have other upcomming games to cap and have no time for the idiots who live boring lives and post negative comments. GL and i will be glad to answer educated questions from here to end of bowl season. GL

[tblues2005]

snapstick there is one question for you on this. There is no line up on the Missouri game as of yet. Will it matter what the line is?

[tblues2005]

I think your information here is accurate and I hope that this system helps me through contests and getting through this bowl season. I thank you for you help with doing all of this work for us!! We have a few morons that want to mess this whole thing up so I am not going to pay any attention to them and I am going to give this a shot and see how it does for me and maybe I will have a happy profitable bowl season and nfl playoffs and Super Bowl this season and then cash out with a nice season. These next four weeks are going to be very crazy for me and I hope that this is going to help very much.

[snapstick]

snapstick there is one question for you on this. There is no line up on the Missouri game as of yet. Will it matter what the line is?

The line is currently Missouri -6.5 and was adjusted on post #62

[snapstick]

Blues...the system as far as i know doesnt specify which lines to get. I make the plays as soon as the lines come out just to be safe.

[snapstick]

I think your information here is accurate and I hope that this system helps me through contests and getting through this bowl season. I thank you for you help with doing all of this work for us!! We have a few morons that want to mess this whole thing up so I am not going to pay any attention to them and I am going to give this a shot and see how it does for me and maybe I will have a happy profitable bowl season and nfl playoffs and Super Bowl this season and then cash out with a nice season. These next four weeks are going to be very crazy for me and I hope that this is going to help very much.

I hope you are sucessfull..keep in mind that no system is bullet proof....but this system has been profitable...whether others believe it or not. GL to you.

[tblues2005]

Thank you for the info here. It still says play Missouri. I haven't seen a line up yet with Bet Jamaica for that game so I will probably see that pretty soon here. Thanks. I hope this comes out real profitable for us and like I said thank you for your homework on this and sharing it with us.

[tblues2005]

I know that the games still have to be played but I am giving it a shot here and see how it does. I am pretty positive that I will do well during the bowl season with these picks and may pull a nice little profit out of it.