Sagarin College Bowl System Plays

**snapstick** · 12-16-09, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by tblues2005

I already put these bets in with mine and now I will have to change it now. Thanks before the game has started or I would have been in trouble here.

Sorry i should have waited, like i said, until after the dreaded Army/Navy game but that game did change the plays quiet a bit. I had to adjust my wagers also.

**tblues2005** · 12-16-09, 02:15 PM

snapstick I know at least I got it corrected and I still had enough funds in my accounts to make these changes. That is alright at least I got it done early enough and who knows I might middle these also because I did buy points with Rutgers and C. Michigan.

**snapstick** · 12-16-09, 02:23 PM

I apologize as the person who posted the plays. Thats why i posted them as soon as i could, GL bud.

**PeePee** · 12-16-09, 02:24 PM

Originally posted by tblues2005

I already put these bets in with mine and now I will have to change it now. Thanks before the game has started or I would have been in trouble here.

This is not a fail-proof system so use it as cappting tool... You may win with your current selections. Who knows? But not suggesting going against it because it's been doing very well the last 3 years, from what I know. Still, this is gambling.

**snapstick** · 12-16-09, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by PeePee

This is not a fail-proof system so use it as cappting tool... You may win with your current selections. Who knows? But not suggesting going against it because it's been doing very well the last 3 years, from what I know. Still, this is gambling.

Nothing is fail proof..not even each of our capping ability.

**Child_Please** · 12-16-09, 06:45 PM

Why isnt Auburn a play anymore?

**snapstick** · 12-16-09, 07:06 PM

Auburn was never a play on this thread

**Child_Please** · 12-16-09, 07:16 PM

Pre Army/Navy Auburn rank 25 sos 14 Nwstern sos 94

**M.W.** · 12-16-09, 07:55 PM

Northwestern is not in the top 60, so not eligible to be faded.

**goldengreek** · 12-17-09, 01:05 AM

Clepto

**snapstick** · 12-17-09, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by Child_Please

Pre Army/Navy Auburn rank 25 sos 14 Nwstern sos 94

If Auburn's SOS was worse than 60 than they would have been a play. Read the rules carefully. Northwestern isnt a auto fade due to their Sagarin rank outside the top 60.

**THE PROFIT** · 12-17-09, 05:26 PM

No one can get this system right. If both are not in the top 60 rank I leave it alone. Some people say if one is in top 60 fade the one with worse sos. WTF ever!

**palmer2712** · 12-17-09, 09:17 PM

Can someone explain the 13 picks for this system and how they are calculated. For ex. I look at Boise St/TCU game and in this thread its a play. I compare the predictor difference of both teams to the actual line and find out of whack lines. This is not one. Please explain.

**xfrozenx** · 12-18-09, 01:16 AM

I just watched about this on youtube on SBR TV....interesting. I think I'm going to follow this method.

**palmer2712** · 12-18-09, 01:48 AM

So Snapstick has it correct? These are the correct 13 plays?

Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-62) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-76)
Play #2: Rutgers -3 (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-85) vs. Central Florida (Sagarin Rating-62, SOS Rank-91)
Play #3: Oregon State -1 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-15) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-20) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-81)
Play #5: Nevada -14.5 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 86) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-89, SOS Rank-94)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2.5 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-16) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-37, SOS Rank-71)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
Play #8: Missouri -6 (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-56) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: LSU +3 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-18) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-80)
Play #10: Oregon -3.5 (Sagarin Rating-5, SOS Rank-7) vs. Ohio State (Sagarin Rating-12, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Arkansas -7 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-66)
Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)
Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

**mrcjmann** · 12-18-09, 01:49 AM

Never tried this but I think I may give it a whirl this year.

**bodio** · 12-18-09, 12:37 PM

Thanks Snap!
Good work!

**snapstick** · 12-18-09, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by THE PROFIT

No one can get this system right. If both are not in the top 60 rank I leave it alone. Some people say if one is in top 60 fade the one with worse sos. WTF ever!

Feel free to wager on any game you wish OR make your own list of plays. Based on the system these ARE the plays. BOTH TEAMS DO NOT HAVE TO BE IN THE TOP 60 RANK. READ THE RULES MORE CAREFULLY.

**snapstick** · 12-18-09, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by palmer2712

So Snapstick has it correct? These are the correct 13 plays?

Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-62) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-76)
Play #2: Rutgers -3 (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-85) vs. Central Florida (Sagarin Rating-62, SOS Rank-91)
Play #3: Oregon State -1 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-15) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-20) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-81)
Play #5: Nevada -14.5 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 86) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-89, SOS Rank-94)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2.5 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-16) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-37, SOS Rank-71)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
Play #8: Missouri -6 (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-56) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: LSU +3 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-18) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-80)
Play #10: Oregon -3.5 (Sagarin Rating-5, SOS Rank-7) vs. Ohio State (Sagarin Rating-12, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Arkansas -7 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-66)
Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)
Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

These are the correct plays.

**snapstick** · 12-18-09, 01:25 PM

There has been some question on line movement on these plays and how do you know what line to get and that this system isnt really a good system due to no information on what line you should get with these plays. The easiest way to approach this i think is as soon as the NCAAF regular season is concluded (after the Army/Navy game) and as soon as the plays are established..thats the time to make the play. Obviously if you wait until the day of each game to make each play you will be getting different lines/spreads on the plays. One way to solve this is as i said, make the play as soon as the plays are established at the end of the regular season. Lets face it..these lines for the plays wont move that much..maybe a point or two...If you follow this general idea of making your wager as soon as the plays are established the whole idea of "The system doesnt give you a line to get with your wager" shouldnt be an issue.

**floridagolfer** · 12-18-09, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by palmer2712

Can someone explain the 13 picks for this system and how they are calculated. For ex. I look at Boise St/TCU game and in this thread its a play. I compare the predictor difference of both teams to the actual line and find out of whack lines. This is not one. Please explain.

Go back and read the thread. There's nothing about figuring out lines in any of this. The "system" supposedly provides a pick based on a team's SOS and that of its bowl opponent, nothing more, nothing less.

**THE PROFIT** · 12-18-09, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

Feel free to wager on any game you wish OR make your own list of plays. Based on the system these ARE the plays. BOTH TEAMS DO NOT HAVE TO BE IN THE TOP 60 RANK. READ THE RULES MORE CAREFULLY.

You just said NW not in top 60 so no play???? Make up your mind or tell me where I'm geting confused in what you're saying.

**THE PROFIT** · 12-18-09, 06:51 PM

I'm sorry, misunderstood. They ARE plays?

**snapstick** · 12-18-09, 08:18 PM

Auburn is ranked 25 with a SOS of 14.
Northwestern is ranked 68 with a SOS of 88.

The game is a no play. If NW was ranked in the top 60 they would be a fade.

**RITZ** · 12-19-09, 09:28 AM

well here we are with the first 2 sagarin model system plays,...finally able to see it in action. however i like Fresno st as Wyoming is just too horrible to consider even if the system calls for it. Good luck everyone in bowl season!

**Skidcom** · 12-19-09, 10:40 AM

Fantastic information. Thank you

**snapstick** · 12-19-09, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

Updated Final Sagarin Bowl System Plays:

My lines posted are the opening lines from the book i use.

There were several changes regarding Sagarin Rank's and SOS's.

There were 2 games deleted after the final Sagarin update. If you already played the 2 deleted games you can hedge the wager and just lose the juice if you care to. (Florida and South Florida)

There were 2 games in which the side we were playing switched to the other team as the play. If you already played the game double your wager and play the other side if you care to. (Central Florida and Troy are now a fade)

There was 1 game added. (Ohio State/Oregon)

Good luck

and if you see any discreprncies let us know so we can make sure everyone is on the same page. I suppose next season i shouldnt post the plays until after the Army/Navy game..

Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-62) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-76)
Play #2: Rutgers -3 (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-85) vs. Central Florida (Sagarin Rating-62, SOS Rank-91)
Play #3: Oregon State -1 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-15) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-20) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-81)
Play #5: Nevada -14.5 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 86) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-89, SOS Rank-94)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2.5 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-16) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-37, SOS Rank-71)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
Play #8: Missouri -6 (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-56) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: LSU +3 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-18) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-80)
Play #10: Oregon -3.5 (Sagarin Rating-5, SOS Rank-7) vs. Ohio State (Sagarin Rating-12, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Arkansas -7 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-66)
Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)
Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

Here we go with Wyoming starting us off with the system. The line isnt really a issue with the first game but get it soon...its dropping at some books down to +10. Good Luck!

**snapstick** · 12-19-09, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by RITZ

well here we are with the first 2 sagarin model system plays,...finally able to see it in action. however i like Fresno st as Wyoming is just too horrible to consider even if the system calls for it. Good luck everyone in bowl season!

Fresno isnt the play if you capped the game in my opinion. I capped the game Wyoming +10.5 and it makes it even stronger with the system on them also. GL

**Serbone** · 12-19-09, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by palmer2712

So Snapstick has it correct? These are the correct 13 plays?

Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-62) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-76)
Play #2: Rutgers -3 (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-85) vs. Central Florida (Sagarin Rating-62, SOS Rank-91)
Play #3: Oregon State -1 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-15) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-20) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-81)
Play #5: Nevada -14.5 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 86) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-89, SOS Rank-94)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2.5 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-16) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-37, SOS Rank-71)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
Play #8: Missouri -6 (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-56) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: LSU +3 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-18) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-80)
Play #10: Oregon -3.5 (Sagarin Rating-5, SOS Rank-7) vs. Ohio State (Sagarin Rating-12, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Arkansas -7 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-66)
Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)
Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

It is helpful. I use it but do not go with it every game, there are other considerations.
Also should look at a team who's SOS is a LOT of pts better as a better bet than some of these where the SOS is only slightly.
Example LSU SOS is 62 pts better than Penn State and getting points!
Should consider wagering more on LSU than favorite Rutgers tonight which is only 6 pts better than UCF.
I am taking Wyoming but I am going with UCF for other considerations.

**snapstick** · 12-19-09, 03:37 PM

Either use it or dont. Up to you

**snapstick** · 12-19-09, 05:36 PM

Played each game for 5 units and played a fun 50.00 13 team parlay for 180,000..lol

GL

**Busterflywheel** · 12-19-09, 06:17 PM

Thanks a ton Snapstick. Most of them look solid at the lines posted in thread!

**snapstick** · 12-19-09, 07:25 PM

So far so good. F.S. up 3 middle 4th

**snapstick** · 12-19-09, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

Updated Final Sagarin Bowl System Plays:

My lines posted are the opening lines from the book i use.

There were several changes regarding Sagarin Rank's and SOS's.

There were 2 games deleted after the final Sagarin update. If you already played the 2 deleted games you can hedge the wager and just lose the juice if you care to. (Florida and South Florida)

There were 2 games in which the side we were playing switched to the other team as the play. If you already played the game double your wager and play the other side if you care to. (Central Florida and Troy are now a fade)

There was 1 game added. (Ohio State/Oregon)

Good luck

and if you see any discreprncies let us know so we can make sure everyone is on the same page. I suppose next season i shouldnt post the plays until after the Army/Navy game..

Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-62) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-76) (Wyoming 35-28)
Play #2: Rutgers -3 (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-85) vs. Central Florida (Sagarin Rating-62, SOS Rank-91)
Play #3: Oregon State -1 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-15) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-20) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-81)
Play #5: Nevada -14.5 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 86) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-89, SOS Rank-94)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2.5 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-16) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-37, SOS Rank-71)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
Play #8: Missouri -6 (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-56) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: LSU +3 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-18) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-80)
Play #10: Oregon -3.5 (Sagarin Rating-5, SOS Rank-7) vs. Ohio State (Sagarin Rating-12, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Arkansas -7 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-66)
Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)
Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

Sagarin System Plays: 1-0, 100%

**snapstick** · 12-20-09, 12:03 AM

Updated Final Sagarin Bowl System Plays:

My lines posted are the opening lines from the book i use.

There were several changes regarding Sagarin Rank's and SOS's.

There were 2 games deleted after the final Sagarin update. If you already played the 2 deleted games you can hedge the wager and just lose the juice if you care to. (Florida and South Florida)

There were 2 games in which the side we were playing switched to the other team as the play. If you already played the game double your wager and play the other side if you care to. (Central Florida and Troy are now a fade)

There was 1 game added. (Ohio State/Oregon)

Good luck

and if you see any discreprncies let us know so we can make sure everyone is on the same page. I suppose next season i shouldnt post the plays until after the Army/Navy game..

Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-62) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-76) (Wyoming 35-28)
Play #2: Rutgers -3 (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-85) vs. Central Florida (Sagarin Rating-62, SOS Rank-91)
(Rutgers 45-24)
Play #3: Oregon State -1 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-15) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-20) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-81)
Play #5: Nevada -14.5 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 86) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-89, SOS Rank-94)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2.5 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-16) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-37, SOS Rank-71)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
Play #8: Missouri -6 (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-56) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: LSU +3 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-18) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-80)
Play #10: Oregon -3.5 (Sagarin Rating-5, SOS Rank-7) vs. Ohio State (Sagarin Rating-12, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Arkansas -7 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-66)
Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)
Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

Sagarin System Plays: 2-0, 100%