Sagarin College Bowl System Plays

[BigdaddyQH]

The system is now 4-7, with 2 games to go. I think the failure of the system this year is due to the fact that Sagarin was way off in his numbers to begin with. This is not the first time he has done this, nor will it be the last. Basically he doomed himself with the Pac 10 this bowl season.

[IrishTim]

Snap just ignore BigdaddyQH, he is a hater and bashes everyone's picks constantly. His record isn't much better I followed him for 3 picks like a instead of doing research and lost my ass. So you system is off you did better last years keep working on it and doing what you do.

I have no interest in defending BDQH (though he does have a winning record on his SBR spreadsheet assuming they were posted before the games), but if you think 3 games is a large enough sample size to measure a handicapper's success, you need to do a little reading re: standard deviation/covariance.

It says more about you than him if you manage to "lose your ass" on 3 picks.

[wal66]

[spongerat]

i think the failure of the system has more to do with the fact that its a system and nothing that simple can win in the long run

[hhsilver]

this thread should not die before the end of the bowls.

[BigdaddyQH]

Another loss for the system last night. That makes it 4-8, with one game to go. At best, it can hit 38.5%, a disaster. I assume we have seen the last of this system. What happened to all the defenders of this system? Did you all run and hide?

[BigdaddyQH]

Here are my NCAAF Bowl Selections i will be playing for 2009-2010. All of these posted plays are final and their will be no deletions or additions. Good Luck and happy bowling. Oh yeah, i forgot to add...I wouldn't recommend fading these plays as this Sagarin System has done well in the past.

The listed lines are what i received at the time i placed my wagers.



Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (SOS Rank-57) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-74)
Play #2: UCF +2.5 (SOS Rank-85) vs. Rutgers (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-100)
Play #3: Oregon State -1.5 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-21) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-17) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-35, SOS Rank-73)
Play #5: Miami, Fla -2 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-18) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-68)
Play #6: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-92) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-97)
Play #7: Missouri PK (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-50) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-79)
Play #8: LSU +2.5 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-16) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: Arkansas -7.5 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-50, SOS Rank-61)
Play #10: Troy +4 (SOS Rank-106) vs. C. Michigan (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-111)
Play #11: Florida -10 (Sagarin Rating-2, SOS Rank-27) vs. Cincinati (Sagarin Rating-6, SOS Rank-63)
Play #12: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-84) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

No deletions or additions huh? You switched off UCF, and you now are switching off Troy. I have seen plenty of deletions and additions. Why don't you admit that the system failed, and just get it over with, instead of disappearing like a child who has done something wrong?

[mmike032]

I have no interest in defending BDQH (though he does have a winning record on his SBR spreadsheet assuming they were posted before the games), but if you think 3 games is a large enough sample size to measure a handicapper's success, you need to do a little reading re: standard deviation/covariance.

It says more about you than him if you manage to "lose your ass" on 3 picks.

nevermind the plays that have been deleted from the spreadsheet
20 something I believe

[BigdaddyQH]

nevermind the plays that have been deleted from the spreadsheet
20 something I believe

Jealous are we? You will see a lot of deletions when I first started to post because I did not know how to correctly post. I could not correct errors, soI simply deleted them and started over. How many deletions have you seen recently big mouth? The fact is that I could crush you, and you know it. I correctly called out this scam for what it was. A scam. The person who posted it triedto baclout of two games. I called him on it. He can not answer. Now anytime you want to shoot your big mouth off and put some money behind it, you just let me know. If not, crawl back into the cubby hole where you and all the other big mouths in here who are not willing to put up any money live. You are no competition, so go back to mommy.

[Peep]

Another loss for the system last night. That makes it 4-8, with one game to go. At best, it can hit 38.5%, a disaster. I assume we have seen the last of this system. What happened to all the defenders of this system? Did you all run and hide?

Opps!

I sort of liked the system, for the strength of opponents part. But was a little too machanical for my tastes otherwise, and I like machanical systems in general.

I ended up having a good bowl season, sitting 7th in the SBR bowl contest, so a happy camper all in all.

[DIRTYDIRTY]

yes the system failed no doubt tough bowl season no matter what system ur using i'm on c.michigan tonight -3

[Rawhide]

It appears the System likes the dogs

[Slate]

All in on troy tonight Just kidding a little on Troy tonight

[BigdaddyQH]

A big pass for me. A home game for Troy. The MAC conference holding the record for the most consecutive bowl losses. Cold weather. There is nothing here worth wagering on. Suspicious ML movement in Vegas makes this even tougher to figure out.

[jnickell100]

Jealous are we? You will see a lot of deletions when I first started to post because I did not know how to correctly post. I could not correct errors, soI simply deleted them and started over. How many deletions have you seen recently big mouth? The fact is that I could crush you, and you know it. I correctly called out this scam for what it was. A scam. The person who posted it triedto baclout of two games. I called him on it. He can not answer. Now anytime you want to shoot your big mouth off and put some money behind it, you just let me know. If not, crawl back into the cubby hole where you and all the other big mouths in here who are not willing to put up any money live. You are no competition, so go back to mommy.

I love how you come into each one of the threads on here and proclaim how great you are and how great your picks are. But the fact of the matter is that i have never once seen you make a pick on here. Why dont you actually make some predections on here instead of attacking everyone on their opinions?

[goblue12]

Have a 2.56% edge on the book if you bet Troy +3 (+110) at SportsInteraction.

[hhsilver]

Have a 2.56% edge on the book if you bet Troy +3 (+110) at SportsInteraction.

could you explain why you say this. How do you get 2.56% ?

[Art Vandelay]

It appears the System likes the dogs

Dogs? Its on mostly favorites. Thats the reason I didn't like this system. The rushing dog system is doing much better - it takes dogs who can run the ball. This system was way too "chalky" for me this time around.

[Busterflywheel]

No deletions or additions huh? You switched off UCF, and you now are switching off Troy. I have seen plenty of deletions and additions. Why don't you admit that the system failed, and just get it over with, instead of disappearing like a child who has done something wrong?

Agreed...no sugar coating..