Sagarin College Bowl System Plays

[RITZ]

"these plays are the Sagarin SOS formula. Using the top 60 Sagarin rated teams, FADE every team whose SOS rating is 60 or worse UNLESS THEY ARE PLAYING A TEAM WITH A SOS EVEN HIGHER THAN THEIRS."

12-20 S MISS #67 RANK SOS 95 VS MIDDLE TENN #73 SOS 122 PLEASE CLARIFY,..QUESTION-AM I CORRECT THAT THE NEW ORLEANS BOWL GAME IS NOT A SAGARIN SYSTEM PLAY ON S MISS USING THE SYSTEM AS LISTED??,...BUT MAYBE A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS S MISS?

[snapstick]

Neither team is in the top 60 Sagarin Rank right? So.....no that game is a no play and thats why its not listed as a play in the list of plays that have been posted. GL

[Joe Dogs]

Good start for the Sagarin system..........Good work Snapstick ........So I take it these are finale and none will be added?

[snapstick]

These are all of the plays. No more will be added.

[Machine Choice]

This is my bowl system that I posted on here last year. It will have good results, but I need to double check Snapstick's selections for accuracy. Over the last two years this system has gone 20-6.

[Machine Choice]

I'll post what i think the plays should be this year.

Here is the thread from last year.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/127598-bowl-system-went-10-2-last-year.html

[snapstick]

The plays are already posted machine and they are correct but thanks for double checking but there is no need to post the plays. They have been posted by myself on this thread and by the way, you can take credit for posting the system last year but it is not a system that was invented by you. Nice to see you again, what brought you out of hiding.

[snapstick]

Play #3 is Oregon State Tuesday at 5pm PST. Good start for the system so far winning the first 2 games.

[palmer2712]

Machine Choice posted UCLA, S. Florida, Aburun though and those were not posted on this thread. Also, machine Choice did not post TCU, C. Mich, Air Force, Neveda which are posted on this. So which is it?

[snapstick]

Machine Choice posted UCLA, S. Florida, Aburun though and those were not posted on this thread. Also, machine Choice did not post TCU, C. Mich, Air Force, Neveda which are posted on this. So which is it?

No disrespect to the poster machine Choice but as far as the system i researched at length goes....the plays he is posting on a different thread is obviously a different system. The system i posted is the correct system with the correct system plays. If you do a little surfing on the net you will find the correct system with the correct rules and his plays are different because his system rules are different if you read his thread. Im not sure why a different system is being posted and confusing people but if you choose to play what he or I posted its up to you. As far as playing the system correctly, the plays i posted are all the correct plays. Im not here to argue with what he posted but the COMPLETE system is posted here. GL

If a team is ranked in the top 60 in the sagarin rankings and they have worse than a 60 SOS rating they are a fade...UNLESS their opponent has a worse SOS then they are the fade. Very simple to understand. obviously he posted his own system thats different and thats fine but this is the system i researched on the net and as far as im concerned this is the correct system with the correct plays.

[snapstick]

Machine Choice posted UCLA, S. Florida, Aburun though and those were not posted on this thread. Also, machine Choice did not post TCU, C. Mich, Air Force, Neveda which are posted on this. So which is it?

Those 3 plays do not qualify based on the research of the system.

[snapstick]

At least i guess we will see which system performs better....the system i researched and posted for everyone to have a part in or his personal system. GL

[palmer2712]

At least i guess we will see which system performs better....the system i researched and posted for everyone to have a part in or his personal system. GL

Sounds good Snapstick. Lets do it. I got the following left then?

Oreg St.
Cal
Nevada
Miami, Fl
Air Force
Missoutri
LSU
Oregon
Arkansas
C. MIch
TCU

[snapstick]

Sounds good Snapstick. Lets do it. I got the following left then?

Oreg St.
Cal
Nevada
Miami, Fl
Air Force
Missoutri
LSU
Oregon
Arkansas
C. MIch
TCU

Updated Final Sagarin Bowl System Plays:

My lines posted are the opening lines from the book i use.

There were several changes regarding Sagarin Rank's and SOS's.

There were 2 games deleted after the final Sagarin update. If you already played the 2 deleted games you can hedge the wager and just lose the juice if you care to. (Florida and South Florida)

There were 2 games in which the side we were playing switched to the other team as the play. If you already played the game double your wager and play the other side if you care to. (Central Florida and Troy are now a fade)

There was 1 game added. (Ohio State/Oregon)

Good luck and if you see any discreprncies let us know so we can make sure everyone is on the same page. I suppose next season i shouldnt post the plays until after the Army/Navy game..



Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-62) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-76) (Wyoming 35-28)
Play #2: Rutgers -3 (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-85) vs. Central Florida (Sagarin Rating-62, SOS Rank-91)
(Rutgers 45-24)
Play #3: Oregon State -1 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-15) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-20) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-81)
Play #5: Nevada -14.5 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 86) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-89, SOS Rank-94)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2.5 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-16) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-37, SOS Rank-71)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
Play #8: Missouri -6 (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-56) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: LSU +3 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-18) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-80)
Play #10: Oregon -3.5 (Sagarin Rating-5, SOS Rank-7) vs. Ohio State (Sagarin Rating-12, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Arkansas -7 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-66)
Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)
Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)



Sagarin System Plays: 2-0, 100%

Thats correct Palmer

[BigTuna]

Does the system know that Johnathan Best is not playing for the Cal?? Also, Utah has won 7 bowl games in a row?

I think that may be the first and probably only slip up. All others look solid.

[palmer2712]

I am reviewing the latest Sabrin #ers, so can someone explain why teams like Air Force are a play where as Auburn and Florida St are not?

[snapstick]

Read the rules I posted and that will answer your question. Not trying to be rude but the rules of the system were posted and the plays were posted based on those rules. Not sure why there is still a question about the plays.

[snapstick]

Its late here and im off to the rack but if you would like i can answer your concerns in the morning.

[snapstick]

Actually palmer you took the time to ask the question i will answer it in a detailed manner for you here in a few minutes after i RE-research the teams you have in question.

[snapstick]

Does the system know that Johnathan Best is not playing for the Cal?? Also, Utah has won 7 bowl games in a row?

I think that may be the first and probably only slip up. All others look solid.

The system doesnt eliminate a play because J. Best isnt playing or because a team has won 50 bowl games in a row..

[snapstick]

I am reviewing the latest Sabrin #ers, so can someone explain why teams like Air Force are a play where as Auburn and Florida St are not?

OK...to address your question Palmer:

Play #7: Air Force +5(Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
AIR FORCE IS A PLAY SIMPLY BECAUSE THEIR SOS IS LOWER THAN THAT OF HOUSTON. The rule is: Fade a team that is ranked in the TOP 60 in the Sagarin rankings if their SOS rank is higher than 60, Unless their opponents' SOS rank is higher. Both teams are ranked in the top 60 and both teams have a SOS rank higher than 60 and in that case based on the rules of the system you fade the team with the worse or higher SOS rank.

Why isnt the florida state game a play you asked? West Virginia is ranked #27 and their SOS rank is 40. They do not qualify as a fade. Florida State is ranked #44 and their SOS rank is 8. Both are ranked in the top 60 but neither have a SOS rank of 60+

Why isnt the Auburn game a play you asked? Auburn is ranked #25 with a SOS rank of 14. Northwestern is ranked #68. Auburn isnt a play because their SOS rank is below 60. Northwestern isnt a play because you wouldnt fade NW unless Auburn had a SOS worse than 60 and better than NW.

Let me expplain the NW/Auburn game a little more in dept for you and give you an example of a game that is a play thats similiar.

ie...Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)

Under the rules if you look at C. Michigan you would think they would be the fade because they are ranked in the top 60 and have a SOS worse than 60. The only time you wouldnt fade, in this case, C. Michigan is if their opponent has a higher SOS which in this case Troy has a SOS rank of 110. Albeit theirs not much difference between a SOS rank of 107 compared to 110 but thats the way the system works and the way i feel is you either follow it to a tee or not at all.

GL and i hope i answered your questions.

[palmer2712]

Thank you Snapstick. Great explanation.

[BigdaddyQH]

As far as not taking anything but those two stats, SOS and team ranking into docsideration, remember, this should be used as a model only. They system has enjoyed success, but it is not perfect. Cal played a good deal of the season without Best, so the fact that he is not playing should have little to do with the predicted outcome because Cal's final team ranking is based on games that he did not play in. Nevada is a whole other problem. They just lost their TWO top RB's, both of which ran for over 1000 yards. On top of all this, people who played the system early had to lay 14.5 to 15 points. Do you think they would be ranked at #56 had Sagarin known about these huge losses for Nevada? That is the major flaw in the system. It can not account for late scratches due to injury, suspensions, academic failures, arrests, and all the other things that happen in this time of the year. Like all systems, the information contained in them can be very useful and helpful, but like all systems, it is not perfect.

[BigdaddyQH]

v
Updated Final Sagarin Bowl System Plays:

My lines posted are the opening lines from the book i use.

There were several changes regarding Sagarin Rank's and SOS's.

There were 2 games deleted after the final Sagarin update. If you already played the 2 deleted games you can hedge the wager and just lose the juice if you care to. (Florida and South Florida)

There were 2 games in which the side we were playing switched to the other team as the play. If you already played the game double your wager and play the other side if you care to. (Central Florida and Troy are now a fade)

There was 1 game added. (Ohio State/Oregon)

Good luck and if you see any discreprncies let us know so we can make sure everyone is on the same page. I suppose next season i shouldnt post the plays until after the Army/Navy game..



Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-62) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-76) (Wyoming 35-28)
Play #2: Rutgers -3 (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-85) vs. Central Florida (Sagarin Rating-62, SOS Rank-91)
(Rutgers 45-24)
Play #3: Oregon State -1 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-15) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-20) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-81)
Play #5: Nevada -14.5 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 86) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-89, SOS Rank-94)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2.5 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-16) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-37, SOS Rank-71)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
Play #8: Missouri -6 (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-56) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: LSU +3 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-18) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-80)
Play #10: Oregon -3.5 (Sagarin Rating-5, SOS Rank-7) vs. Ohio State (Sagarin Rating-12, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Arkansas -7 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-66)
Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)
Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)



Sagarin System Plays: 2-0, 100%[/QUOTE]

But you said that you already played games on the original list, which had UCF as the choice. Does that mean you middled the game out? Now either you wagered on the games when they came out, loke you said, or you did not. You can't have it both ways. Two games into the system and the records differ, depending on when you allegedly make your wagers. That is not going to cut it.

[snapstick]

If you read the whole thread the final updated list was made after the army navy game and it was posted here. I also apologized to everyone for not waiting to post the plays until after the army navy game and i made it very clear to middle the 2 games that were changed. Yes i middled the game and if you READ the whole thread i told others to do the same and they did. Dont come in here spreading this bs bro. I post these plays for everyone and i do not expect people to make these stupid comments. Please READ THE WHOLE THREAD before you make uneducated comments. I really dont care what you think will cut it. Read the whole thread.

[snapstick]

But you said that you already played games on the original list, which had UCF as the choice. Does that mean you middled the game out? Now either you wagered on the games when they came out, loke you said, or you did not. You can't have it both ways. Two games into the system and the records differ, depending on when you allegedly make your wagers. That is not going to cut it.

As far as not taking anything but those two stats, SOS and team ranking into docsideration, remember, this should be used as a model only. They system has enjoyed success, but it is not perfect. Cal played a good deal of the season without Best, so the fact that he is not playing should have little to do with the predicted outcome because Cal's final team ranking is based on games that he did not play in. Nevada is a whole other problem. They just lost their TWO top RB's, both of which ran for over 1000 yards. On top of all this, people who played the system early had to lay 14.5 to 15 points. Do you think they would be ranked at #56 had Sagarin known about these huge losses for Nevada? That is the major flaw in the system. It can not account for late scratches due to injury, suspensions, academic failures, arrests, and all the other things that happen in this time of the year. Like all systems, the information contained in them can be very useful and helpful, but like all systems, it is not perfect.

Play the system or ignore the system..We dont need your anylasis bro. GL

My intentions of this thread was to do the research and to post the correct plays for others. Its simple, GL

[GGPLAYER]

Snapstick you have done a lot of work here and great job. People keep questioning these plays but I"m sticking with them. So far so good seeing that they are 2-0. Since I have no other way to say thanks I'm throwing you some SBR points after each win. I see it as a small price to pay since I'm probably going to come out ahead for the first time in years after the Bowl Season.

[snapstick]

Snapstick you have done a lot of work here and great job. People keep questioning these plays but I"m sticking with them. So far so good seeing that they are 2-0. Since I have no other way to say thanks I'm throwing you some SBR points after each win. I see it as a small price to pay since I'm probably going to come out ahead for the first time in years after the Bowl Season.

you dont owe me anything because i enjoy doing this but if you give me points i appreciate it. GL

[snapstick]

Thanks to anyone who has transfered me SBR points in this thread. I have done my best with this thread and i hope whether you disagree or not with the system and the plays i posted if you played them i hope we are successfull this bowl season. 2-0 so far next play Oregon State on Tuesday. GO BEAVERS..

[tblues2005]

snapstick good job of picking the first two games. I wish I could have had Rutgers without having to backwheel it because I bet it early but at least I came out ahead of the deal. You are 2 and 0 so far and I hope it comes through for you that a real profitable system this season also. Thanks for the good picks so far.

[tblues2005]

Here is 4 points so far for your wins.

[snapstick]

Tblues thanks and sorry you had to lose a little juice on that Rutgers play.

[tblues2005]

That is alright. I did it too early. I will remember that next time. As long as next year the final plays will be done right I am fine with that.

I just had to buy a new computer today and I am getting everything back that I needed and it is a pain getting this all done. Getting used to Windows 7 is going to take a while. It is sure nice and the operating system is about 75 percent faster is what they told me and it sure does make a difference.

[snapstick]

Thats cool. Maybe these plays will pay for your new computer when its all said and done.

[snapstick]

I played them all for 2 units and i did 2 parlays, 1 parlay with the dogs and the points with the favs on the ML. The 2nd parlay was strickly with the dogs and favs with the points both ways. GL