Wal's College Football Week #11

**wal66** · 11-11-09, 11:22 AM

Apreciate it eastvan and Joey.

Bigcat, I haven't worked the Kentucky game beyond the program stage yet. I'm taking extra time this week trying to make sure I only put out the strongest plays. Initially Kentucky looks like potential and it is definately on my list of games to work.

**BigdaddyQH** · 11-11-09, 11:22 AM

Good pass on tonights game. Toledo is way to fickle to figure out. They can keep it close, or they can get blown out here.

**mcbaseball10** · 11-11-09, 11:44 AM

I'm liking SMU at home against UTEP this weekend. Good to see your system agrees with this also.

**22dsnyd22** · 11-11-09, 12:30 PM

i like the 6 point teaser here with cent mich - 11 and under 67

**Kustac** · 11-11-09, 12:41 PM

interesting stuff thanks

**PingPong** · 11-11-09, 01:00 PM

kansas pk and nebraska -5.5??

**ntieu22** · 11-11-09, 01:09 PM

wow that is a big card

**wal66** · 11-11-09, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by PingPong

kansas pk and nebraska -5.5??

Kansas St is a pick according to the program.
Nebraska is -5.5 according to the program.

**wal66** · 11-11-09, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by ntieu22

wow that is a big card

The first post is Program Generated Lines they are not official plays.

There has only been one play made to this point. Well one game two plays actually.

**wal66** · 11-11-09, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by 22dsnyd22

i like the 6 point teaser here with cent mich - 11 and under 67

Initially that was what I thought about doing as well just because I really wanted some action, I thought about it long and hard and it was the total portion I couldn't decide on but that is nothing new because I always get all nervous with totals. Eventually I just chose to wait and see if there is something that looks good in the second half.

Good luck with your teaser and your week,

**PingPong** · 11-11-09, 03:44 PM

yea that's what i figured, just forgot "st."

**TheBetBuysDanK** · 11-11-09, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by wal66

Initially that was what I thought about doing as well just because I really wanted some action, I thought about it long and hard and it was the total portion I couldn't decide on but that is nothing new because I always get all nervous with totals. Eventually I just chose to wait and see if there is something that looks good in the second half.

Good luck with your teaser and your week,

my thoughts too. I'll check back to see what you have for your saturday games.

BOL of whatever you decide to do in the 2nd.

**eastvan09** · 11-11-09, 05:43 PM

I passed on tonight's game as well... BOL on Sat

**wal66** · 11-11-09, 05:43 PM

Saturday November 14, 2009
12:30 PM
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt

Records:
Kentucky 5-4 (4-5 ATS) 1-1 on the road
Vanderbilt 2-8 (4-5 ATS) 1-4 at home

Trends:
Underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 in the series

Head to Head:
Kentucky is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in last 10 in the series
Vandy won last and covered last year at Kentucky 31-24 as a 3 point dog

Offense:
Kentucky averages 29.7 ppg on the road
Vandy averages a9.2 ppg at home

Defense:
Kentucky allows an average of 14 ppg on the road.
Vanderbilt allows an average of 25.6 ppg at home.

My Take:
Last year Vandy was my (and others) lil hidden gem. I had several nice wins on them. I, like others probably thought Vandy would again this year continue to build on what they started last season. Hasn’t been the case though. New players just haven’t stepped in and continued what last years team began. Disappointing to say the least is the 2-8 record they have this year. Kentucky is Kentucky. They aren’t a dominate team but they have been better the past couple of years. You never expect them to beat the bog guys of the SEC and fortunately for them Vandy doesn’t fit into that category anyhow. On the season even though they both lost to the common opponents they faced Kentucky played better on offense and Vandy played better on defense. Not really surprising because that is what you would expect. Kentucky did play better over all this season against a tougher schedule. Also need to add in that Kentucky is still playing to impress and get a decent bowl game at the end of the season. Vandy basically is down to playing for pride. I don’t mean to under mind the Pride Factor here but performance wise Kentucky is the better team and has more to play for. Both teams are banged up but nothing new for this week. Possibly Kentucky starting quarterback Mike Hartline could be able to play as he has been attempting to practice this week.

Program:
Kentucky by 13.5 so there is plenty of value here.

Program Score Prediction:
Kentucky 34 Vanderbilt 24

Play:

Kentucky -3*

**wal66** · 11-11-09, 05:44 PM

I will post games as I do them like always. Iwill clean everything up and post all games in one spot when I am done with all.

**Cougar Bait** · 11-11-09, 06:09 PM

I like Kentucky this week as well Wal. Still working on the card. Should be up later tonight or tomorrow at the very latest.

**xyzky** · 11-11-09, 07:12 PM

Good luck this week Wal...

**HoldEmHook!!** · 11-11-09, 07:22 PM

Good luck my friend....

**wal66** · 11-11-09, 09:41 PM

Ok I have run the numbers for what these two have done throughout the season in their second halves. Toledo averages 15 ppg in the second half and Central Michigan allows only 6.3 ppg in the second half. Toledo allows an average of 18.7 ppg in the second half and Central Michigan averages only 11.3 ppg in the second halves.

So I was thinking a play on Toledo would have some value but looking at the numbers that best fit the situation I think the under in the second half is the better play.

There is 8 seconds left in the half so I’ll post this now. As long as it’s at least 30 points in the second half that is the play.

Under 30 or more for 1 unit.

**ZBOIZ** · 11-11-09, 09:42 PM

**wal66** · 11-11-09, 09:47 PM

Toledo/Central Michigan 2nd half

Play:

Under 31.5*

**ZBOIZ** · 11-11-09, 09:54 PM

**wal66** · 11-11-09, 10:01 PM

Obviously this play has Z's approval. Cool.

**wal66** · 11-11-09, 10:31 PM

4 minutes left in the 3rd and I already have to sweat this 2nd half play. Not good, not good at all. Toledo looks like they have quit and Central Michigan looks like they want to embarrass them for it.

**dchecks** · 11-12-09, 05:36 AM

Hey Wal I don't know why but I never noticed your thread before. I also use Sargin as a tool when capping games. I was wondering how your record has been using this system?? Nice work and Good luck!

**bigcat1** · 11-12-09, 08:06 AM

I HOPE YOUR RIGHT ABOUT THE KENTUCKY GAME, but hope that hartline doens't come back, newton is doing the job...i was kinda leaning with my homer team, but if they can't beat vandy they don't deserve a bowl game anyway....for the love vandy lost to army, i mean army come on

**wal66** · 11-12-09, 08:55 AM

Should have followed my system's suggestion on the game.

Should have stayed away in the second half.

Loser on the under 31.5

2-1 for the week.

**wal66** · 11-12-09, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by dchecks

Hey Wal I don't know why but I never noticed your thread before. I also use Sargin as a tool when capping games. I was wondering how your record has been using this system?? Nice work and Good luck!

It's difficult to judge my record because every now and then durring the season I will make a play here and there like last night which is included in my overall record so it is somewhat skewed. Now sometimes I will win those hunch plays or whatever so it probably evens out.

Basically last year I was 66% for the regulas season and this year hovering a smidge over 60%. If I were sticking to the program I would be again right around 66% for the season. Disappline is something I am constantly battling, if I ever get control of that URGE to gamble then the program can truly be judged.

I would say 90% of the time I follow my program suggestions with complete data analysis but sometimes I will just soley take the programs suggestion alone.

I assume you like me use the Sargin as purely a base and have additional factors involved? It is a great TOOL but hardly a stand alone process.

**wal66** · 11-12-09, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by bigcat1

I HOPE YOUR RIGHT ABOUT THE KENTUCKY GAME, but hope that hartline doens't come back, newton is doing the job...i was kinda leaning with my homer team, but if they can't beat vandy they don't deserve a bowl game anyway....for the love vandy lost to army, i mean army come on

Cats........I like you am hoping that Newton is under center. As a coach I would feel compelled to play Hartline if he is 100% but that loyalty would never be at the expense of the team. Newton is young but certainly has some real potential. Kentucky will need to get out on them and keep the pressure on because with nothing to play for Vanderbilt would like nothing more than to spoil things for someone else.

My data supports Kentucky and the program supports them so I can feel confident that it is as good of a play as I can have. Hope it plays out as the numbers suggest.

**bigcat1** · 11-12-09, 09:31 AM

wall66, i am going to play the game. (uk) but what are your thoughts on the south florida v/s rutgers. i am leaning toward south florida, but need some push...so push me one way, really like your threads..seems we have alot of the same thoughts...

**wal66** · 11-12-09, 11:23 AM

Cats........Well the program says South Florida should be favored here by 4.5. This game wasn't on my radar because at the time the lines came out I had no value. Now however I look and I see Rutgers is favored by 2.5 so I will have to work this game now. I know off the top of my head that South Florida is such an up and down type team. As soon as you get comfortable and confident in them they seem to play like ass and then when you're ready to jump ship they go and beat someone they weren't supposed too. From a purely athletic standpoint I can't see Rutgers hanging with the Bulls but from a performance standpoint it's anybodies guess which Bulls team will show up.

I'll work this game today and see if I can find anything.

**wal66** · 11-12-09, 12:06 PM

Cat's............ok I have worked the game top to bottom and I can't help you here. Personally I think if they keep it together and don't only try the deep pass then South Florida can win this game but it's not supported with data. Everything I researched says this line is DEAD ON. Meaning Rutgers should win this game somewhere in the 27-24 range.

I know the program says otherwise and you already have a lean but the stuff I looked at says to stay away. Sorry I was hoping to have been of more help here.

**jds07v** · 11-12-09, 12:26 PM

so is that an unintentional lean to the over with the total sitting at 43?

**bigcat1** · 11-12-09, 12:36 PM

your always plenty of help, like your thread..always give good info..think i am official on the south florida, believe they have played a harder schedule and beat better teams..sometimes you got to go on your own......what games are you leaning to this weekend, if you had to play just one what would it be

**wal66** · 11-12-09, 12:45 PM

Originally posted by jds07v

so is that an unintentional lean to the over with the total sitting at 43?

If I really just wanted action tonight on this game that would be the route I personally would take. All the numbers I ran suggest the score I gave so I would actually look at the over. BUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am not a good totals person.