Wal's College Football Week #11

**jds07v** · 11-12-09, 12:50 PM

yeah, i never like to be on the other side of houls and his totals. still finalizing tonights.

**wal66** · 11-12-09, 12:50 PM

Cat's I still have loads of work for the rest of the games so to say at this time what my favorite or strongest is, I couldn't. It is easy to say now because it's over and already won the game but I really LOVED the Ohio U game. I posted here what I normally do but that is for SBR tracking purposes but I generally have more on games than I post and sometimes additional games than I post and I had a really good size bet on Ohio U the other night both in side and total.

I really like Kentucky right now of the games yet to go off and that I have finished. I am hoping to find a couple of really strong plays this weekend. Probably won't be the high profile games that everyone likes but that's cool. I prefer to play games less noticed anyways. Find better action and lines tend to not adjust as much.

**jds07v** · 11-12-09, 02:45 PM

came up with rutgers -2.5 as my play

**wal66** · 11-12-09, 05:10 PM

I told myself I was gonna stay away tonight. I have a program that tells me 3 of these games should go this way and I have research that suggest 2 of those games should follow suit. I am throwing the third game in based soley on the program.

I've been busy all day either on the forums screwing off or actually working so I don't have any write-up information for these games. Scratch that. I have plenty of information I am just being lazy and not writing them up. If you want to know anything I have available on the games I will tell you. Otherwise these are just what I am on.

Program:
Bowling Green by 9 data supports this.
Northern Illinois by 24 data supports this.
South Florida by 4 data suggest Rutgers by 4.

Plays:

Bowling Green -4 (1/2 unit play)

Northern Illinois -17 (1/2 unit play)

South Florida ML +110 (1/2 unit play)

**jds07v** · 11-12-09, 05:41 PM

GL wal

**wal66** · 11-12-09, 06:05 PM

Thanks jds, to you as well

**Cougar Bait** · 11-12-09, 06:22 PM

I'll wish you luck on 2 of those...got Rutgers at +1 before the public devoured it so we'll be on opposite sides of that one. I'll likely be switching back and forth between Rutgers and the Bears game anyway...

**wal66** · 11-12-09, 07:17 PM

I went small since I went all 3 games. Northern was the 1 out of the 3 I liked the most but decided what the hell. Would be happy with 2-1, I'm not greedy.

**scarecrow717** · 11-13-09, 02:02 AM

wal,

i'm new to the board but i've been following your picks for a while. i'm sorry if you've talked about this in another thread, but what are your thoughts about the TCU-Utah game real quick?

**wal66** · 11-13-09, 11:38 AM

1-2 lastnight 3-3 for the week thus far.

I knew South Florida was a bad play and even talked about it but still went on blind faith.

**wal66** · 11-13-09, 11:41 AM

Scarecrow, just based on the program I would pass. Due to that I haven't even researched this game. Tell ya what though, I'll be playing golf this afternoon but when I get home I will look at some numbers and match-up stuff. Can't say I'll have any good news for you though but I will give you what I have.

**j_m79_2000** · 11-13-09, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by wal66

1-2 lastnight 3-3 for the week thus far.

I knew South Florida was a bad play and even talked about it but still went on blind faith.

Hindsight is 20/20 bro... Ive been following your picks for a little while now.. you do great work. Keep up the great work !!

**PeePee** · 11-13-09, 12:11 PM

Wal,
Glancing at your original lines I saw two games jumped out that way off the actual Vegas line. CFla is +15 (UH -5) and Clemson is +8 (Vegas has -8). When you have time can you cap the CFla to see why your program favor CFla that much? Thanks.

**wal66** · 11-13-09, 09:51 PM

PeeWee Must typos. According to the program Houston should be -10 so at the time the lines originated they would have 5 points worth of value on the program alone. According to the program Clemson should be favored 16 over NC State. Sorry for the confussion.

**wal66** · 11-13-09, 09:55 PM

Scarecrow, I ran the numbers on the Utah/TCU game. To begin with the program suggests that TCU should only be about 13 points better than Utah. After doing the research it worked outt that TCU should be about 17 points better than Utah but that wasn't taking into consideration that Utah will have a rookie quarterback under center. Without really knowing anything about him there is noway to really judge this game for me. Full strenght I would lean to Utah but as is I would have to play TCU or stay away completely.

**wal66** · 11-13-09, 10:07 PM

Saturday November 14, 2009
12:00 PM
Indiana @ Penn St

When ths game opened it was Penn St -21 and currently it is Penn St -24.5. The line climbed as high as 26 at some places during the week. Looking at several places I see that Indiana is getting good public numbers supporting them and the line remains fairly high. I don't have access to see is the public brought the line back down and is now reversing it or exactly what happened and when. Normally when I see these percentages and the line movement I would stay away. In this case I have a program telling me something and every posible way I have looked at the numbers agreeing with the program then right or wrong I am making it a play. Indiana tends to start fast and lose games in the second half so it might be a better idea to just play a half but I'll just go with the game here.

Play:

Indiana +24.5* (not buying the hook, win or lose I can't see it coming into play)

**wal66** · 11-13-09, 11:07 PM

Here is Saturday's entire card. I'm foregoing the write-ups just to save time. These either win or lose and the write-ups won't decide anything.

Plays:

Clemson -8*
Indiana +24.5*
Kentucky -3* (bought the hook)
SMU -7*
Tulane +3*
Miami -3*

**Cougar Bait** · 11-13-09, 11:11 PM

On 3 of those with ya Wal. GL this week...

**wal66** · 11-13-09, 11:15 PM

Good luck to us both Coug's

**joeygats** · 11-14-09, 12:08 AM

Originally posted by wal66

Good luck to us both Coug's

wal what 2 would you reccomend i play in a parlay?

**wal66** · 11-14-09, 12:34 AM

Sorry Joey, I can't help you there. I mean I like these plays but I really don't get involved in trying to rank my plays or offer parlay or teaser type situations. I post them like that sometimes but I am posting what I am doing and not posting to influence anyone else. I was gonna make Kentucky a stroner unit play but have decided since the Oregon game against Stanford that I will post all games equally.

**cgars1** · 11-14-09, 12:38 AM

LIKE your card wal66!!!

**moodyt2** · 11-14-09, 12:47 AM

I'm on Indiana +24.5 and Kentucky -3. GL

**PeePee** · 11-14-09, 01:22 AM

GL, Wal.

**jds07v** · 11-14-09, 02:03 AM

Lets go Clemson and Miami. Thought about playing Kentucky -3 but I liked the card I had and hoping for a +10 day from my 3 plays

**scarecrow717** · 11-14-09, 09:47 AM

thanks a lot wal, i passed on that game. GL this week, i'm on indiana kentucky and miami with you.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-14-09, 09:54 AM

You're betting on some pretty shitty teams today Wal.

But as always GL on your card.

**wal66** · 11-14-09, 10:02 AM

Houl's, 90% of the games any of us bet on are matchups between a couple crappy teams. If these plays flame they just flame. I look for value and don't concern myself with were. Doesn't always work and may be a brutal day but at least now before kickoff I still have hope.

**odusmykal** · 11-14-09, 10:08 AM

Best of luck today, Wal..

**bigcat1** · 11-14-09, 10:24 AM

C A T S---------C A T S ----------C A T S

WE HAVE HOPE UNITL KICK OFF GOOD LUCK TODAY

**HoulihansTX** · 11-14-09, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by wal66

Houl's, 90% of the games any of us bet on are matchups between a couple crappy teams. If these plays flame they just flame. I look for value and don't concern myself with were. Doesn't always work and may be a brutal day but at least now before kickoff I still have hope.

Didnt mean to be insulting, rather stating an opinion. Someone has to cover in those games.

Gl, bro. Stay in the black.

**BigJ** · 11-14-09, 10:35 AM

Hey Wal, you got any fav's on the over/unders today?

**wal66** · 11-14-09, 10:42 AM

Houl's I wasn't insulted bro I was just saying. Trust me even if someone called my plays the second coming of B Lang I wouldn't take it as insulting. Most every gambler I have ever met is first and foremost opinionated and those opinions are always on front. I respect opinons of some at SBR and you are among those.

BigJ, I really really don't like totals. I get lucky like 1 out of every 7 but no I have no opinions on totals today.

**wal66** · 11-14-09, 11:24 AM

SEC opions for today. ot plays just opinions.

Alabama -11.5
South Carolina +18
Auburn +4
Ole Miss -6

**tblues2005** · 11-14-09, 11:29 AM

I like Miss. State because of having two weeks to prepare for Alabama. I agree with you on South Carolina and Auburn.