Wal's College Football Week #11

**HoulihansTX** · 11-08-09, 10:56 AM

Already at it huh?

I'm going to wait until tonite B4 I start capping.

ND is a big play for me though. they will get a really favorable line against Pitt. Pitt is a horrible fav in my book, as long as the Stache is HC

**Cougar Bait** · 11-08-09, 11:18 AM

If Miami is only -7 against UNC I am pounding that. Indiana playing people pretty tough, but Penn St. -17? Pitt -6 at home vs. the Irish? That will be a play for me if that line is under 7. If Louisiana Tech is a 26 point dog, I'd take that too. Ohio St. -5 is a gift. If the line is near that, I may go all in. I think it's double digits though.

**wal66** · 11-08-09, 11:56 AM

Houlihan's this is just the preliminary step. Nothing really begins until the lines come out. The program is the easy part. Just though I would list them before the lines hit so anyone can compare and not think I already have lines in the equation.

Coug's Miami will probably be no less than 10 at opneing I would imagine. Ohio St will DEFINATELY be higher do to the injury of Iowa's quarterback yesterday. If he is out this line will be much higher. I doubt we even get a line today on Ohio St.

Same will probably be true for California. Although Best will most likely be out for sure this week.

**BigdaddyQH** · 11-08-09, 01:04 PM

It is early, but word has it that Ohio State will be closer to -14 against Iowa. QB Stanzi's ankle injury was described as "severe" by HC Ferentz. He will probably miss the rest of the season.Oregon State will open up at -10 or more against Washington. They have owned Washington at home of late.

**wal66** · 11-08-09, 01:46 PM

QH........good info. that is why I made sure to make it clear this was the program numbers without injury data. I wouldn't have posted them at all but last week it was requested when I didn't do it so I just figured I would start making it part of my weekly threads.

Everyone needs to realize the program is MERELY a filter the real work comes in the research.

**wal66** · 11-09-09, 05:53 PM

Tuesday November 10, 2009
7:00 PM
Ohio @ Buffalo

Records:
Ohio U 6-3 (5-4 ATS) 4-1 on the road
Buffalo 3-6 (4-5 ATS) 2-3 at home

Trends:
Ohio U is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games
Buffalo is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games
Over is 8-3 in Buffalo’s last 11 conference games

Head to Head:
Ohio U is 6-4 SU and series is 4-4 ATS in the last 10 meetings
Buffalo has won and covered 2 straight against Ohio U
The over is 4-3 in last 7 in series

Common Opponent:
Ohio U 19 Akron 7
Akron 17 Buffalo 21

Offense:
Ohio U averages 27.4 ppg on the road
Buffalo averages 26 ppg at home

Defense:
Ohio U allows an average of 23.6 ppg on the road
Buffalo allows an average of 24.8 ppg at home

My Take:
I made a lot of money on Buffalo last season. They were much better than expected and so they weren’t hard to wager on. This year however things have pretty much returned to the days of old. The thinking was they were a team on the rise and just might continue last years amazing performances with maybe not as good but still quality season this year. Well that hasn’t happened. It’s basically been a disappointing season thus far and even winning out won’t really ease the pain all that much. I was more impressed with coach Turner Gill than anything with last years team, You could tell he demanded 100% effort out of his players and they gave it at all cost. This year the intensity is still there but the competition isn’t overlooking Buffalo. As a result a losing season is waiting for them. Last week we saw an inspired initial effort but they just couldn’t keep Bowling Green at bay. This week they get another team that much like Buffalo last year is having a good run this year. I won’t say Ohio is having a better than expected season but they are certainly having a decent one. A win against Buffalo keeps many things available to them. I don’t think it’ll be easy though. It’s really hard to think that Buffalo would lose back to back weeks on national television as a home favorite but that could very well happen. While Buffalo holds a slight advantage in strength of opponent Ohio holds an edge in overall power ratings. Looking at the numbers Buffalo allows at home the average points Ohio U scores on the road so it wouldn’t be a stretch to assume Ohio will be able to score points as the norm. I am really torn on the side in this game. I have to give credit to what my program has computed but at the same time it’s really difficult to think Buffalo will totally pack it in. I may end up deciding a side later but for now I will most likely be playing a rare total.

Program:
Ohio U by 3 so we have an edge playing Ohio on the ML here.

Play:

Pending: waiting on the total to be set for the game. I have a generated score of 33-30 Ohio U so anything 58 or less and I will be playing over the total. I may end up playing a side for a half unit but undecided for now.

**HedgeHog** · 11-09-09, 06:27 PM

Hard to believe Ohio U is getting points vs Buffalo. Looks too easy.

**Cougar Bait** · 11-09-09, 06:34 PM

Ohio was an initial lean of mine as well. Might not play it. Haven't decided yet. Working 50 hours a week takes it's toll...

I have a lot of work to do before Wednesday plays go up. Buffalo's home crowd did not give a shit about that game last week. Home field basically means nothing.

**wal66** · 11-09-09, 07:26 PM

Coug's I didn't factor much heavy for homefield in this one. i have a sliding scale when it comes to homefield advantage. For instance take Buffalo I use far less than say LSU at night. there is a clear cut advantage some places and very litte at others so no blanket factor.

What do you do Coug's? An extra 10 hours a week overtime is always nice. Especially if it gets to go towards not having to pay bills.

**wal66** · 11-09-09, 07:30 PM

Originally posted by HedgeHog

Hard to believe Ohio U is getting points vs Buffalo. Looks too easy.

MAC games can be fickle Hedge. All my data says OHIO is the play, logic says Ohio is the play but something is keeping me from making it official just yet. When in doubt PASS but then that would be the inteligent thing to do.

I'm confident about the total here I just need to actually see a total posted. I have looked everywhere thinking I maybe missed it or some site was sow but there isn't one anywhere.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 07:36 PM

Tuesday November 10, 2009
7:00 PM
Ohio @ Buffalo

The Total will be set in the 48.5-45 range.
Don't really care what the total is I've got this game going UNDER. Both have conservative coaches, and both lean on their run game. You saw the game between BG/Buff last week. If not for two block punts, and BG's passing O that game goes way UNDER.

Bowling Green, and Temple are the teams you go OVER with in the MAC. Not these two. Trust me

**wal66** · 11-10-09, 07:20 AM

Houl's I'll never claim to know or be any good at totals. I am tinkering around with my program to see how it'll do with totals. This Ohio/Buffalo game is a test run. Plenty of indicators suggest that neither team will do much to be able to keep the other from their average.

You are proven with totals and I'll never say I am right and someone else is wrong, especially when it is something I am no good at. I will just suggest no-one read my thread and trust I am right about this game or any other game without finding something to support it for themselves.

I'll be on the over because as I said I am tinkering with a new phase of my program (not changing the side portion of it) but I'll not be heavy on any sides that are program tested until it has some success. I'll be like half units on these.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-10-09, 08:31 AM

Only recommending, another perspective.

**blackbeSSt** · 11-10-09, 09:24 AM

your program must not know that penn st can't cover shit even against a cupcake, much less giving 26+ to an improving indiana

**Darrellp32** · 11-10-09, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by blackbeSSt

your program must not know that penn st can't cover shit even against a cupcake, much less giving 26+ to an improving indiana

exactly, his program says penn st is going to win by 17, so indiana is a great value, 9ish points overvalued according to the program....

**22dsnyd22** · 11-10-09, 10:53 AM

haha exactly. what are you talking about blackbesst. Not too mention is just program generated lines, nothing concrete, but a great way to get an idea of what games to look into. Keep it up WAL.

**blackbeSSt** · 11-10-09, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by 22dsnyd22

haha exactly. what are you talking about blackbesst. Not too mention is just program generated lines, nothing concrete, but a great way to get an idea of what games to look into. Keep it up WAL.

guess y'all missed my sarcasm. my point was his system doesn't know that penn st sucks and that the -17 line was too high. so hell yeah im all over indiana +26

**Superman455** · 11-10-09, 11:19 AM

Gl on your picks this week Wal

**BigdaddyQH** · 11-10-09, 11:49 AM

Both of these teams play in the MAC East. Buffalo has been a major disappointment this season. Ohio is still in the running for the MAC East Championship. They also get to finish at home, though against two tough teams (No. Illinois and Temple). Ohio deserves a strong look here at +1.5.

**wal66** · 11-10-09, 02:13 PM

OhioU @ Buffalo

Play:

Ohio U -1.5*

Ohio/Buffalo over 45 (1/2unit)

**wal66** · 11-10-09, 02:17 PM

Guys, anytime a line exceeds 18 points everything gets a little cloudy with my program. As I have stated in the past without revealing everything part of my program is based on the Sargin Ratings. Even with my additional factors thrown is to complete the formula by starting with the Sargin as a base it is very difficult to adjust for such huge lines.

Now I agree that Indiana is deserving of solid consideration in this spot due to the line in this case if I have a play on it, it will be soley on analysis in this case. Much like with the Florida lines this year. The program works best with lines that are more relative.

**PeePee** · 11-10-09, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by wal66

OhioU @ Buffalo

Play:

Ohio U -1.5*

Ohio/Buffalo over 45 (1/2unit)

You mean Ohio U + pts?

**wal66** · 11-10-09, 06:09 PM

Yeah, I have them at +1.5 it was a typo in the post. Didn't want to edit it though because if it wins then someone will question it or at least could.

**PeePee** · 11-10-09, 06:52 PM

**HoulihansTX** · 11-10-09, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by wal66

Yeah, I have them at +1.5 it was a typo in the post. Didn't want to edit it though because if it wins then someone will question it or at least could.

No they cant Wal. There is a time stamp on all posts and edits. So if anyone has a dispute, they can refer to the time U edited. As long as B4 kick-off, don't really see anything wrong.

**joeygats** · 11-10-09, 09:30 PM

looking good on the ohio and over.

**wal66** · 11-10-09, 09:39 PM

At this point the over looks good I agree but the Ohio play is far from comfortable right now.

**PeePee** · 11-10-09, 10:32 PM

Man, talking about capping the game to the T. Won right at 3.

**wal66** · 11-10-09, 10:35 PM

Well the program said Ohio by 3 so that couldn't have been any better.

The adjustments made to do totals did win but it wouldn't have won had this line been what I said I would play so it still needs some work.

What did happen though was both team scored and allowed their at home and away averages. Love it when the numbers tell a story and the game follws the script.

Fortunate 2-0 start to the week.

**wal66** · 11-10-09, 10:36 PM

The program picked the number PeeWee I just found analysis to support it.

**eastvan09** · 11-11-09, 12:16 AM

Nice start Wal! Gl with rest of your picks...

I'm going to bounce back from my 0-1 start under bet tonight...

**joeygats** · 11-11-09, 03:24 AM

very nice start. i will tail you on tonights game so pick a winner..

**bigcat1** · 11-11-09, 07:25 AM

good job as usual, i followed the ohio pick, i have a little tie with ohio, but it seems you and your program do really good, just wandering i noticed your program has kentucky a huge favorite, when the books only have them at -3 do you care to elloborate, you also have central mich -20, i think my book has them at -17.5 are taking central mich...any way best of luck

**wal66** · 11-11-09, 11:19 AM

Wednesday November 11, 2009
8:00 PM
Toledo @ Central Michigan

Records:
Toledo 4-5 (4-5 ATS) 2-2 on the road
Central Michigan 7-2 (6-2 ATS) 3-0 at home

Trends:
Toledo is 8-19 ATS in their last 27 road game
Central Michigan is 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games
Under is 7-3 in Central Michigan’s last 10 games as a favorite

Head to Head:
Toledo is 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in the last 10 in series
Central Michigan won 24-23 at Toledo last year but Toledo covered

Common Opponents:
Western Michigan 58 Toledo 26
Central Michigan 34 Western Michigan 23

Offense:
Toledo averages 33.3 ppg on the road
Central Michigan averages 34 ppg at home

Defense:
Toledo allows an average of 36 ppg on the road
Central Michigan allows an average of 9.6 ppg at home

My Take:
I like many have won some on Central Michigan this season. In fact MAC games have been profitable all season long. I’ll admit they can be a crap shoot but a value can be found in certain instances. Tonight’s game on the surface appears to be another case in point of finding a value. I mean Central Michigan has dominated its opponents at home and if you were to stop there that is what you would see. When you look at who they have played at home though it tells a different story. Now don’t get me wrong this is probably the best team in the MAC and I do like them to win this game but I’m just saying Toledo is better than Alcorn St. That brings me to Toledo. If you look at their record you see a very bad team. Well they certainly aren’t a really good team but I don’t think they are a terrible team either. They have actually played stiffer competition this season than has Central Michigan. This game could go either way. I don’t see Toledo in the upset role but they could easily cover this number according to the numbers I have researched.

Program:
Central Michigan by 20 so there isn’t the required minimum for a play here.

Play:
PASS Leaning towards the under but for now this game is a pass. Might be a game where we can find an edge for a second half play.