I was thinking about trying a middling technique for College. From my limited experience, College seems to have greater line variance from open to close than do NFL lines, although I'm sure it can work for both. What I'm looking for is an indicator of how the line will move through the week. I realize, generally, that taking the favorite early and the dog late is most favorable, so that was going to be my basic strategy, but I'd like to pinpoint an early indicator that would trigger my decision to middle a particular game. Does anyone have any advice, hard statis, or can point me to any references that might indicate how early line movement, in either direction, will ultimately affect where the line finishes in respect to it's opening?
(i.e. if a line moves 1.5 points in one direction a day after opening, will it tend to continue to move in that direction, or perhaps in the opposite direction, or is there no correlation between the two). should I be looking at something other than early line movement to help choose games to middle?
I'm also thinking of using national and prime time games as an indicator, since my perception at least has been that there's usually late money on the favorite in these games as well.
Any thoughts?
(i.e. if a line moves 1.5 points in one direction a day after opening, will it tend to continue to move in that direction, or perhaps in the opposite direction, or is there no correlation between the two). should I be looking at something other than early line movement to help choose games to middle?
I'm also thinking of using national and prime time games as an indicator, since my perception at least has been that there's usually late money on the favorite in these games as well.
Any thoughts?