I think im on to something...

[BUCS220]

Thanks Cakas! Im with you on your teaser

[rk9]

Been following along and I like the idea. The general public isnt going to be moving these lines much before Friday. GL on your teasers, i may try it out next week.

[TGoat]

I will most likely NOT be playing these games, despite a 1.5 pt movement (both teams are winless, and awful ATS):

Now they can't be winless nor awful against the spread? More and more you are inserting your judgment to fit the data after the results are in.

If that's the case it is no longer a "system," but rather just a set of data that you determine to be valid or not valid by backfitting.

Could be a great idea. Could be a bust. Why not just backtest it for a couple of years and see how it pans out. Your other system did not backtest well. Maybe this one will.

[hhsilver]

Good point, Tgoat. I would think "winless" and/or "awful against spread" and still having line moves point to such a team would make it an even stronger play by the logic of this "system".

[Jimmy Proffett]

Maybe the ATS record could just be another filter; not really a judgment call per say.....

I like how you're thinking cakas.... I actually do something similar (in terms of spending more time on non-TV big-time games and seeing what the lines do early) but I do use my own judgment on what I decide to wager on. Like this week I really like Toledo if the line stays under a field goal and Ark St. b/c of the extra rest and how they match up with FIU... but staying away from San Diego St. just b/c CSU's been a whipping boy for the top tier teams the last 4 weeks and they're gonna take it out on the Aztecs imo.

I'll be tracking along.... and BOL

[100Dimes]

whats your thoughts on applying this to the NFL??

I just checked it for NFL with my book VS. the Vegas opening line and these would be the plays

Bears
Bears Under
GB
GB Under
NE
NE Over
Oakland Over
NO Under
Philly Under

[100Dimes]

Interested to see how this does this week

[Hawk007]

Since the thread opened on 10/05, what is the record on these plays? Must not be doing that good, otherwise it surely would be posted? Thanks for posting caka.

[zubzub]

My plays for this week:

NewMexico +3
ArkSt -10
SanDiegoSt +9
Toledo +1

7pt 3Team Teaser:
E.Mich +9.5
UtahSt +6
Troy -12

2 Team Parlay:
Toledo -3
NewMexico -1

I did 6pt teaser, 4 teams from last week and cashed. N. Texas, La Tech, Ohio U and So. Miss. Small play and I was out all day on saturday so don't know how close the covers were. Tried to paste the ticket here but it made a world of blank space below the paste so I said fuggit but jumpin in to say the teaser angle worked for me last week.

GL this week Cakas.

[mcbaseball10]

whats your thoughts on applying this to the NFL?? I just checked it for NFL with my book VS. the Vegas opening line and these would be the plays Bears Bears Under GB GB Under NE NE Over Oakland Over NO Under Philly Under

This system is relevant for Non-BCS teams not on nationally televised games or as LT and Jello stated "chasing steam on non-bcs teams."

You would be just chasing steam and getting the worst lines on NFL games that are already razor sharp (IMO)

[mcbaseball10]

Since the thread opened on 10/05, what is the record on these plays? Must not be doing that good, otherwise it surely would be posted? Thanks for posting caka.[/quote]

20-9-1 since week 4

11-6 since 10/05

[cakasmaloy]

The point of me posting this theory wasn't to boast or anything of that nature which is why I don't religiously post the plays. Its pretty simple to follow and I figured I'd just lay the foundation and if anyone else saw value in it as I have they can use it. I'm more than happy to clarify what qualifies/disqualifies particular plays of anyone has a question. Good luck.

[polson22]

Since the thread opened on 10/05, what is the record on these plays? Must not be doing that good, otherwise it surely would be posted? Thanks for posting caka.

i see someone else tracked it and i tracked it for one week (can't believe it's two weeks already)......... anyway, my sense is that the idea is sound, whether you boil it down to actual system with more filters or you use it as a source of ideas........ and i'm somewhat enthusiastic in using it for NCAAB which i've never bet outside of march madness and maybe the occasional huge ACC game.

[texhooper]

Could be a great idea. Could be a bust. Why not just backtest it for a couple of years and see how it pans out. Your other system did not backtest well. Maybe this one will.

this is a good idea.

[polson22]

how did this do today? no idea (i.e. NOT a loaded question).

i'll try to check (and i realize OP uses as basis for picks, not the picks themselves)........ i got killed on non-bcs games today, but i didn't use this theory.

i will try to tally it today as a basic system.

[polson22]

i've got this at 6-2-1 so far today.

here's how i did it.

i assumed 1 point move is a play and that you get that line (if you watch closely, i think that's reasonable).

what i didn't do
1) adjust for ranked teams
2) adjust for any major TV games.
3) only games today
4) didn't adjust for early moves that may have gone the other way

anyway, let's not be too critical....... the general idea seems to have some legs. thank you cakasmaloy!!

[polson22]

11-4???

and again, i didn't adjust for TV games and/or ranked teams (generally things i wouldn't personally adjust for anyway).... and didn't check for early moves that may have gone the other way.

[jellobiafra]

Since the thread opened on 10/05, what is the record on these plays? Must not be doing that good, otherwise it surely would be posted? Thanks for posting caka.

I know right. It's a little frustrating. Is anyone posting the plays (a summary before noon Saturday would help), tracking the plays, and keeping a true record? Seems like different people are using their own filters.

Kind of a clusterfukk in here.

[polson22]

I know right. It's a little frustrating. Is anyone posting the plays (a summary before noon Saturday would help), tracking the plays, and keeping a true record? Seems like different people are using their own filters.

Kind of a clusterfukk in here.

i think it would be hard for 11-4 to be a losing week if you did it a moderately different.

anyway, someone has volunteered and quantified a strategy that probably a few people had somewhere deep in their head....... it seems to test quite well real time.

what else do you want??...... so basically the OP isn't going to update it himself real-time every week. did he ever say he would?

EDIT: not sure what happened to the push i had earlier.... obviously, i'm just eyeballing these #'s......... anyhow, not to worry, given the reactions i won't be posting in this thread any longer

[jellobiafra]

i think it would be hard for 11-4 to be a losing week if you did it a moderately different.

anyway, someone has volunteered and quantified a strategy that probably a few people had somewhere deep in their head....... it seems to test quite well real time.

what else do you want??...... so basically the OP isn't going to update it himself real-time every week. did he ever say he would?

Fair enough. This "system" shows promise. The thread could use a little structure though. It needs a scorekeeper. It needs the plays listed succinctly and possibly all together on Saturday morning, and then it needs someone to grade them and keep a record of their success or failure.

I tried to take the reigns of a baseball "system" thread early this past season because people were clamoring for a true keeper of record. I did it for about a week and gave up because everybody wanted to use their own filters and argue over what the plays should be. Somebody else took over though and I guess did a decent job. I think the thread picks made good money over the course of the season. I know it's a pain in the ass, but a "system" thread needs a bookkeeper.

[polson22]

Fair enough. The "system" shows promise. The thread could use a little structure though. It needs a scorekeeper. It needs the plays listed succinctly and possibly all together on Saturday morning, and then it needs someone to grade them and keep a record of their success or failure.

I tried to take the reigns of a baseball "system" thread early in this past season because people were clamoring for a true keeper of record. I did for about a week and gave up because everybody wanted to use their own filters and argue over what the plays should be. Somebody else took over though and I guess did a decent job. I think the thread picks made good money over the course of the season. I know it's a pain in the ass, but a "system" thread needs a bookkeeper.

jello, fair enough. and i appreciate the comment....... i like it more as an idea than a system. and OP seemed to move away from it being a system really quickly.

i would love someone to "own" this as a system..... and very sympathetic for your baseball system experience....... should be a thread where only the moderator can post, although then i guess you'd have a parallel thread with all the modifications.

i understand exactly what you were saying now......

but i probably won't be in here any more for the reasons you mentioned vis-a-vis your baseball thread.

[cakasmaloy]

Sorry for not being as active as everyone would like. Ill try to do a better job this week.

[zubzub]

anyhow, not to worry, given the reactions i won't be posting in this thread any longer

reaction. one single (1) poster. to my knowledge anyway, haven't studied closely the posts that weren't geared towards constructive input on the system. Your posts have been some of if not the best in terms of system input so I hope that you will reconsider and continue to participate in threads about this.

As for cakas, as he mentioned above, he laid out the philosophy behind this and as the post impies: he doesn't have the time to devote to posting that he'd probably like to. He has posted his plays over the 2 weeks this has been ongoing, I believe he has returned to cite results...winners and losers.

[CHmonk]

Sorry for not being as active as everyone would like. Ill try to do a better job this week.

cakasmaloy, kudos ... I think you are doing a great job ... no complaints here

[tango]

Thanks everyone for making this a must see thread.

Does any know of a site that shows the line at the start of the week and the final line?

Thanks.

[TGoat]

Fair enough. This "system" shows promise. The thread could use a little structure though. It needs a scorekeeper. It needs the plays listed succinctly and possibly all together on Saturday morning, and then it needs someone to grade them and keep a record of their success or failure.

I tried to take the reigns of a baseball "system" thread early this past season because people were clamoring for a true keeper of record. I did it for about a week and gave up because everybody wanted to use their own filters and argue over what the plays should be. Somebody else took over though and I guess did a decent job. I think the thread picks made good money over the course of the season. I know it's a pain in the ass, but a "system" thread needs a bookkeeper.

I just finished reading a very long system thread. Who knows it might even be the baseball thread you're referring to. I find these kinds of things very interesting, although I find the idea of space monkeys interesting as well. (Even though I don't believe in them.)

Since you brought up the baseball thread here is the problem as I see it with these kinds of threads. You're right, everyone wanted to add their own filters, use their own odds, change this, fix that, debate about plays, etcetera.

Finally someone just laid down a set of rules and stuck to them and kept score. That's all anybody has to do with these kinds of threads. Lay down some rules (admittedly they will be arbitrary, but what "system" isn't?), stick to them and keep score.

Don't worry about what other people want to do. Let them keep their own score. They can even start a new thread like one guy did, which was very interesting. If you don't ignore everybody's input, nothing will ever get done.

I take these things and run with them. What I do with them is usually far beyond the scope of their original intent...I slice and dice and cut and paste until I've looked at them thirteen ways to thursday, but I'm not trying to please anybody but myself.

I do enjoy reading them, however.

[polson22]

Don't worry about what other people want to do. Let them keep their own score. They can even start a new thread like one guy did, which was very interesting. If you don't ignore everybody's input, nothing will ever get done.

I take these things and run with them. What I do with them is usually far beyond the scope of their original intent...I slice and dice and cut and paste until I've looked at them thirteen ways to thursday, but I'm not trying to please anybody but myself.

I do enjoy reading them, however.

TGoat, great post. very well articulated.......... does this mean that you think people shouldn't be in here with the kind of comments/adjustments etc. that some of us have been?..... i would definitely be fine with that, but then i think the thread will just die...... i do like the idea of making it a system (and good observation on the conidtions ultimately being arbitrary). i do think one of the best things about a system is it doesn't know you're backing hawaii or tulane or rice. it just knows the system. (i guess technically the program knows you're backing tulane, but it doesn't get all panicky about it)

i love stuff like this and try to incorporate some of it into my plays. i want to back test this during a quiet season. i'm almost certain it won't run as hot as it has later.

[polson22]

reaction. one single (1) poster. to my knowledge anyway, haven't studied closely the posts that weren't geared towards constructive input on the system. Your posts have been some of if not the best in terms of system input so I hope that you will reconsider and continue to participate in threads about this.

As for cakas, as he mentioned above, he laid out the philosophy behind this and as the post impies: he doesn't have the time to devote to posting that he'd probably like to. He has posted his plays over the 2 weeks this has been ongoing, I believe he has returned to cite results...winners and losers.

zubzub, thanks for the support. i am sticking around.......... as for reactions, i meant in general in this thread and others....... even though i think pags was somewhat culpable in his banishment drama, i think he make a major effort providing information/analysis/etc. whereas some of his detractors were just negative with little real input (not all of them). internet forums seem to attract people with a huge number of post counts but only flippant negative content.

[TGoat]

TGoat, great post. very well articulated.......... does this mean that you think people shouldn't be in here with the kind of comments/adjustments etc. that some of us have been?.....

Not at all. Anyone can comment all they want. Some of the ideas are good, and some are nonsense. Also, there will be endless questions about the rules. I would simply refer them to post #1 or wherever the rules are stipulated and move on. It's up to you (the system rule maker) to decided how you want to handle their interaction.

You can ignore it and just keep posting your plays.

You can acknowledge it and consider the good suggestions. (And maybe even start a new thread.)

Or you can endlessly debate and try to correct errors.

I wish I had the link to that one guy's chasing system thread. He really did a good job of just posting his picks every day and tallying the results. All of the superfluous noise just went over his head (to a certain degree). He was also very patient with people and explained things along the way. Maybe I can find the link.

Here it is (LINK)

Whether you believe in these kinds of systems or not (personally, I don't), they can be fun to read. But even if you don't believe in them you might be able to pick up a pointer or two that you can apply to your own handicapping.

This guy was following another system, got an idea for some changes, started a new thread and stuck with it till the end. It's a very long thread, but entertaining and a perfect example of how it should be done.

The poster's handle is Billdo 75.

[cakasmaloy]

kent -2
n texas -10
n ill -11
fresno st -16.5
miami oh +5

[tango]

i've got this at 6-2-1 so far today.

here's how i did it.

i assumed 1 point move is a play and that you get that line (if you watch closely, i think that's reasonable).

what i didn't do
1) adjust for ranked teams
2) adjust for any major TV games.
3) only games today
4) didn't adjust for early moves that may have gone the other way

anyway, let's not be too critical....... the general idea seems to have some legs. thank you cakasmaloy!!

Polson,

I assume that you applied this methods to all games regardless just as long as it has a 1 point movement? Do you do the final check on wednesday or on game day. I assume that this method work best when checking for movement up until wednesday only.

Thanks.

[JGun]

Polson, I assume that you applied this methods to all games regardless just as long as it has a 1 point movement? Do you do the final check on wednesday or on game day. I assume that this method work best when checking for movement up until wednesday only. Thanks.

Yes, Wednesday only

[cakasmaloy]

kent -2
n texas -10
n ill -11
fresno st -16.5
miami oh +5

im pretty sure this list still stands as of today (wednesday)

good luck

[hhsilver]

wed morning 8:15 am -- among the 10 books on my sbr lines 1st page - none of the above lines is available. .... could you have a lot of followers who are contributing to the line moves?

[cakasmaloy]

I meant those plays are the only ones through today, not that the lines are still the same...I posted those plays on Monday.