I think im on to something...

[mcbaseball10]

Nice work this week. If for anything else it opens your eyes to look at games we normally wouldn't consider. Keep this going, very good info for all of us looking for new angles.

[polson22]

A large component of this potential system would be the lack of exposure of the games.

That being said, immediate drastic line moves per NFL could prove to be I think worth "noting" as, mentioned earlier in this thread, public isn't jumping on early lines so stupid money isn't fueling those moves.

I see challenge with avoiding the "regression to the mean" plays though as one would want within this system to nab lines nearest to the opening line so time to wait to see if regression takes place.....

would not be afforded.......

no, i don't like the idea for the nfl............ but there's definitely people who try to follow the sharps in the nfl, which i definitely don't suggest (better to be sharp).

my point is that a bunch of people are asking cakas to do this for the nfl. why doesn't someone volunteer for nfl? like i said, i don't think idea fits for nfl.

but i might be willing to do it for bcs, or non-huge BCS.... help me work on a definition. if anyone wants. i.e. how obscure does the main team have to be??

[cakasmaloy]

Cakas, please comment on how you include Utah -6.5 as a play. the line started at 6.5 . it went to 7 and then higher by Wed. ..... I guess 6.5 was still possible at machbook at very,very bad odds. is that how you played it at -6.5? ( that would be equivalent to buying points and I don't like depending on buying points or reporting it as part of this method) Otherwise this should be labeled as a loss because , by Wed, at 'normal' juice I don't think you could even get -7.

I haven't read the entire thread - if this was discussed, sorry.

I got utah at -6.5 at sportsbetting.com just after while Pinnacle had it at -7.5.

Everyone else, thank you for your kind words and support. I hope everyone made some money this weekend using these picks. As for immediately assuming winning vs losing trends, i dont think we can do that after just 1 week of critically assessing the system. Im going to follow the same method over the next few weeks, posting plays using the exact same process as i did this week. then, we will at least have a little more data to analyze.

[zubzub]

better to be sharp

I was totally sharp 17 seconds before i died

[zubzub]

I got utah at -6.5 at sportsbetting.com just after while Pinnacle had it at -7.5.

I'm tempted to play an OTEP song but that would just make me predictable

[zubzub]

oh fukk it

[PASS IT ON]

For example, GIANTS -16.5??? thats a lot of points..biggest spread of the year..will it scare people off of them who really love them this week??? . I DON'T CARE!!! If i bet the GIANTS it is because in my mind they are that much better than the RAIDERS and if they are up by 20 with 2 mins to go and go into "PREVENT-ME-FROM-WINNING-MY-MONEY defence" (like they did against Washington) it doesn't mean I was wrong..it means I lost and thats the bottom line for me. Sorry for they long post, get your flame-throwers out.

PICKSagainst the spread)

Ravens- 8 units
Bills-4 units
Giants-4 units
Jets-8-units

Parleys:
Ravens/Bills 2 units Ravens/Bills/Jets 1 unit
Ravens/Jets 2 units
Bills/Jets 1 unit
Bills/Colts 1 unit

Nice call on the giants -16.5

correct me if im wrong but (usually) arnt the best punters out there the ones who do there own handicapping and bet on all the lines they feel are wrong???

nice work aswell caka

[cakasmaloy]

ill post all plays i get today at the end of the day

[mmaestro]

Hi,

I am very interested in you system.... actually I simply love it

I have few questions and I hope that someone here can help me....

Just to start with basic things, because I do not follow NCAAF but from betting point of view this system looks very good
- Look at only matchups where both teams are in small, non-bcs conferences -> non-bcs conferences are
* Conference USA
* Mid-American Conference
* Mountain West Conference
* Sun Belt Conference
* Western Athletic Conference
or I missed any?

- Neither team can be ranked -> I checked ranked teams here: http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/standings Rank I suppose is number in bracket... is this rans set in the beginning of the season or is rank changed from week to week?

- The game cannot be televised on national TV -> where is the easiest way to check this?

-Use SBRODDS.com to watch the PINNACLE line movement from the OPEN (on Sunday) until WED -> is there any alternative line movement tracker like sbrodds which is perfect, but there is only one problem.... I am planning to make a program which would check line movements and reporting me if there is any potential play. I can not see in page source lines so can not parse them out so I am looking for something where are lines visible in page source....


Thanks for all answers in advance.

[polson22]

maestro, can't answer all your q's be here some info.

yes, i believe you are correct on the conferences. here is phil steele's daily blog with power ratings for each team sorted by conference. i basically like the format.

national tv games i think are fairly easy............ cbs, abc, nbc never show non-bcs against each other. neither does peachtree tv. espn might. so check espn's schedule. cincy vs. south florida qualifies by conference this week, but it's on espn so doesn't qualify.

rankings change throughout the year and there's tons of them. not sure which one's cakas is using............

but anyway, my general point is that he has his very highly defined so that people can track and he doesn't have to give his plays every second as they occur.

but you can loosen things up a little.......... but basically obscure teams playing each other is best. but i guess the system does technically include tcu or boise state playing terrible teams.

anyway, there are a bunch of games that qualify already this week. but no one has posted them.

i also am interested in finding out where to find line moves, public plays etc.. i've only become interested in the specific subject very recently

[Cubs2240]

I'm really wanting to put my mortgage on Boise St -10........any reason why not? Please give feedback....the Jets put a hurting on my bankroll

[cakasmaloy]

I dont really have any thoughts for that game but i'd be worried that Tulsa hangs...

[mmaestro]

@cakasmaloy: may you just let me know which rankings do you use...

[cakasmaloy]

i just use espn.com --> college football --> rankings

[LT Profits]

Looks like North Texas is a play

[Katasstrophe]

Love the thread.

Western Michigan is very interesting this week.

Crazy RLM considering 87% betting Central Mich and line has gone from -7.5 to -6.5 crossing a key number.

I think that if you combine this system with RLM you could be golden. Especially when the line crosses key numbers (3, 7, 10, etc.)

Wyoming, Hawaii, North Texas along with West Mich all have RLM.


Tash

[mmaestro]

i just use espn.com --> college football --> rankings

Sorry to be silly but which of them do you use? AP Top 25?

[nickelchip]

It's amazing to me that so many people can take an easy concept and make it so freakin hard.

[polson22]

Sorry to be silly but which of them do you use? AP Top 25?

i don't think it matters that much....... i assume cakas will be excluding boise-tulsa tomorrow night, but you could easily include it if you want (and i think there's probably value in non-huge games for bcs conferences too.... like WV vs. marshall)....... but i presume he's doing top 25. the other votegetters almost no one looks at, unless you're a fan of some perennial doormat that makes it there.

i did notice this myself and also then saw a comment on it....... what about games that cross a key number? there's definitely one this week. i'm thinking those are bad plays, but if i'm mistaken, someone else thought they were super-stealth

anyway, definitely have to increase my number of sports books to take advantage of earlier lines and more $$$$ to play. some of these lines, once again, have moved alot

[cakasmaloy]

sorry for not being as active with the thread as i was last week... i hope by now most can understand the general idea of this system... this week there have already been over 15 games that have moved a full pt in one direction; however, the line movement seems more inconsistent than usual. im going to try to take more effort to select only a few games that i feel are the strongest plays. ill put these up tomorrow most likely.

[Cubs2240]

sorry for not being as active with the thread as i was last week... i hope by now most can understand the general idea of this system... this week there have already been over 15 games that have moved a full pt in one direction; however, the line movement seems more inconsistent than usual. im going to try to take more effort to select only a few games that i feel are the strongest plays. ill put these up tomorrow most likely.

You are killing me....I check this site every 10 min. waiting on your pics LOL Love the work you are doing and last week, by following your picks, I picked up a little extra money on games I would have never even thought of. (Idaho and Marshall) Great calls by the way. Keep up the good work and look forward to the picks this week! I did lose the ULLaf game but I went to school there and should have known better to have bet that game. GL bro

[Indecent]

You're killing yourself... The system has been laid out in its entirety in perfect idiot proof instructions several times, read them (or reread) and just take a few minutes, look at the lines, and decide who qualifies based on what has been laid out. Seriously, the hard work has been done for you, and you want the easy part every week?

Don't take this the wrong way, but you've been taught to fish, go free and catch them.

[Cubs2240]

You're killing yourself... The system has been laid out in its entirety in perfect idiot proof instructions several times, read them (or reread) and just take a few minutes, look at the lines, and decide who qualifies based on what has been laid out. Seriously, the hard work has been done for you, and you want the easy part every week?

Don't take this the wrong way, but you've been taught to fish, go free and catch them.

Have a sense of humor....

[Jowframs]

Ball state.......From+4 To +3

[JimmyJet]

Like the theory behind this system. Nice work cakasmaloy. Here is what I see as possible plays based on your system. Please advise if correct in my reads.

Ball State
Wyoming
Ohio
West Virginia
Rice
Akron
Louisiana Tech
Kent
Hawaii
So Miss
Fresno State
North Texas

All Saturday games and do not believe any will make National TV.

[JimmyJet]

Forgot No Ill

[mcbaseball10]

Nice work Jimmy

West Virginia is Big East BCS school so might filter that one out.

[JimmyJet]

Would West Virgina be eliminated even though they are playing Marshall according to the rules?

[JGun]

Would West Virgina be eliminated even though they are playing Marshall according to the rules?

Yes

[JimmyJet]

thanks JGun....good luck

[StraitShooter]

Got my attention too

Lets c how this works out this week

[burnedhands]

I understand why people could be hesistant to believe this systems worth, but i dont really feel like explaining "why it works"... just use the information i have provided and review the past weeks (or even last season). The only reason i havent brought this up earlier is because i couldnt believe the results myself and i didnt want to make an ass of myself or screw anyone over, but now i have faith that this system works.

i hope youre right! and thanks for bringing this up..im sure a lot of us appreciate this

[cakasmaloy]

Like the theory behind this system. Nice work cakasmaloy. Here is what I see as possible plays based on your system. Please advise if correct in my reads.

Ball State
Wyoming
Ohio
West Virginia
Rice
Akron
Louisiana Tech
Kent
Hawaii
So Miss
Fresno State
North Texas

All Saturday games and do not believe any will make National TV.

thanks for posting this... ive been swamped this week and havent got around to posting my plays... since there are so many plays that qualify this week, today i will post a condensed list of the "better" looking plays based on personal opinion. good luck everyone

[cakasmaloy]

Like the theory behind this system. Nice work cakasmaloy. Here is what I see as possible plays based on your system. Please advise if correct in my reads.

Ball State -- initial play would have been BG
Wyoming
Ohio
West Virginia -- i filter out BigEast teams
Rice
Akron -- initial play would have been BUFFALO
Louisiana Tech
Kent
Hawaii -- initial play would have been IDAHO
So Miss
Fresno State
North Texas

All Saturday games and do not believe any will make National TV.

Thanks for your help Jimmy --

Here is a list of plays for this week that qualify... you will notice this list may vary a bit from JimmyJet's above. Im not saying these are more likely to win than the ones above, but these are the plays that I will be on based on how I interpreted the line movement. Also, note that you may find these lines either more favorable or less favorable based on which sportsbook you use or when you placed wagers... i placed most of these MON/TUES on Sportsbetting.com...

The first half are plays i feel the most confident about:

OHIO -12.5
LATECH -18.5
KENT -5.5
S.MISS -10
NAVY -7
NTEXAS -1
------------
TULANE +20
RICE +18.5
N.ILL -4.5
FRESNOST -20
UTAH -14
WYOMING +12

[Jowframs]

Ball St Doesnt qualify??Thanx for all you do