I think im on to something...

[johnnyutah20]

The game was televised nationally on CBS- not to split hairs, but I get your point.

[cakasmaloy]

Plays so far (you will notice I bought pts on some games for more favorable #'s, especially if line has already moved significantly):

Toledo -7
UtahSt -13
Akron +4.5
C.Mich -21
KentSt +6
Temple -13

*Troy -4 and Nevada -8.5, qualify in all criteria besides the fact that they are on ESPN, so i most likely will not play them*

...more will follow tomorrow

[polson22]

I guess I'm not understanding your logic. If you wait for team x to move from -4 to -5, and then pick them, you have just successfully screwed yourself out of one point. Why not take them at -4 instead? On the other hand, if you wait for the spread to change several points, then bet in the opposite direction it would make sense.
Traditionally, pro handicappers bet in one of two ways; Either they pick the correct line early before the public has manipulated the spread, or they assume the opening line is the most accurate, wait for the public to sway the line, then bet in the opposite direction.

I apologize if I missed something here, but i don't know why you would wait for a line to get worse before betting on it.

i think the OP already mentioned this in response but it's a rules-based system, not a handicapping system. it doesn't presume any knowledge of temple or ball state.

also, i thought that was a favorite of betting boards, jumping on line movements, especially ones that go against the public.... i think it's more for people who don't know that much who think they are following the sharp money (which i think is semi-nebulous and over-rated concept anyway)

[cakasmaloy]

i think the OP already mentioned this in response but it's a rules-based system, not a handicapping system. it doesn't presume any knowledge of temple or ball state.

also, i thought that was a favorite of betting boards, jumping on line movements, especially ones that go against the public.... i think it's more for people who don't know that much who think they are following the sharp money (which i think is semi-nebulous and over-rated concept anyway)

Personally, I don't care how it gets done... winning is winning. Good for you if you think you "know" the teams your betting on... i could give two shits as long as i get paid.

[polson22]

Personally, I don't care how it gets done... winning is winning. Good for you if you think you "know" the teams your betting on... i could give two shits as long as i get paid.

i don't think i explained properly. i think the jumping on sharp line movements for well-known teams/games is somewhat nebulous

i think there's tons of space in the lesser known games to jump on line movements in these games with arguably quite inefficient lines.

i was making more a comment on people trying to follow sharps in well-known games.

[cakasmaloy]

gotcha -- yea the point is I see value in an immediate, drastic line movement in a more-or-less "random" game... i admit i dont know shit about the two teams but i take it SOMEONE does when a line jumps 2 pts within 12 hours from a Sunday-Monday a week before the game is played

[Betman]

I would like to understand the reasoning behind the suggestion that a nationally televised game is an automatic no play regardless of the line movement.

[cakasmaloy]

I would like to understand the reasoning behind the suggestion that a nationally televised game is an automatic no play regardless of the line movement.

my thought process behind that point is that more people are likely to bet games that they can watch. this brings in a lot more amateur gamblers who just throw down with no direction swaying the line movement erratically... im trying to find the more untouched, "pure" games where most of the action is based on people who actually know something about the matchup.

[RoagBettor]

The same "rule" can be applied to soccer also, particularly in the games that are not followed/bet as much as the "premier" games. I see it all the time.

You definitely are onto something. The books are making their money off of the big games, there is opportunity in betting the games only the players' families and friends care about!

[Betman]

my thought process behind that point is that more people are likely to bet games that they can watch. this brings in a lot more amateur gamblers who just throw down with no direction swaying the line movement erratically... im trying to find the more untouched, "pure" games where most of the action is based on people who actually know something about the matchup.

I appreciate the sound logic behind your thought process but I am wondering whether there is an element of contradiction here.

Let me explain : the amateurs you are concerned about are likely to show interest in a televised game later in the week and not early. They are likely to make a betting decision the day the game is scheduled or the day before. Unlikely sooner than that.

You, on the other hand, are taking into consideration line movements early in the week (sunday - wednesday window of opportunity), moves which most likely are caused by the sharp money.

How about keeping an eye on televised games which meet your criteria and see how well they perform compared to non televised games ?

[polson22]

2 things.

i think i have seen a similar thread somewhere in the past. maybe 2p2 forum and MAC games.

i would think that two lesser teams are never on national TV against each other, so i doubt you need the qualifier. sorry, i didn't read carefully as to where we got on tv definition.

i'd be curious about whether something like 2 top MWC teams against each other should qualify..... although they'd be on fairly big TV, i'd think.

anyway, love this stuff. lesser known conferences offer a ton of value, but a ton of work to handicap too..... they system arguably cuts thru all that.

thanks for starting the thread!!!

[keyboarding]

If the system is working it's easy enough to do the work ourselves and watch the line movement. Everyone seems to always want everything handed to them.

Money.

[Rio DiNero]

YOU SHOULD TRY YOUR SYSTEM WITH TOTALS!

[polson22]

YOU SHOULD TRY YOUR SYSTEM WITH TOTALS!

yeah, totals seem alot softer than point spreads in general. and i'd say that's true for all games, including the well-known teams (of course, that's more efficient than sunbelt O/U's for example)

[TPowell]

glad to see something like this, I always love betting with the public in games like you're talking about

[nobs]

The point I was making is that you can look back at last weeks plays and always find some angle that would have produced a 5-0 or 8-0 week or whatever. That certainly doesnt mean its a +EV angle.

Maybe I can look back at last weeks results and find that teams who played on the road as 7-10 points favorites and have sophomore starting QB's went 7-0 last week, that doesnt make it a betting angle.

The fact is that line movement is just as ofter wrong as right, perhaps wrong even more often then right. I dont care if its a nationallt televised "big time" game or a no interest game. And the Fact is that the Toledo line fell all the way to 4, so not only does he buy a point to make his angle more accurate then it even was, he also uses the line of Ball State + 6 buying a point to 7. In fact, his line on the game should be Ball State + 4. Maybe he bought 3 points.

I am sorry to seem so opininated here, but I guess that is the purpose of the board, our opinions. But you know, we have this exact same discussion in the Toledo -4 thread. Many posters took the position that Ball State was the play simply because the line movement had to mean something. Well, it didnt. Period. Someone remarked in this thread that "some people just want everything handed to them". I think its a good point. Just in a different way then he intended.

Cap your games with hard work and dont try find some silly "system" that you think is +EV long term just because it might have done well the last few weeks. That is a lot like a martingale system, but I am so tired of trying to convince the casino gamblers that you cant make money in the long run by just doubling down your last bet. Yeah, it might have worked the last 3 times you tried it. That doesnt make it long term +EV.

Gamblers have "thought they were on to something" with crazy systems since the beginning of gambling and they have all been wrong. You know there is a system that actually does work and is always +EV long run. It works like this. Cap your plays hard and only play 1 or 2 or 3, maybe even 0. Dont play anything unless you have capped it hard and you know you have the right side. You wont win them all, and sometimes your capping will prove to be dead wrong, but you follow that system and you will win.

There are a lot of stupid lines that the linesmakers put out every week. Cincy -15 on Fresno ( bet up to 17 1/2) and no where near covers. Maryland -6 over MTSU ( bet up to 8) and then loses the game outright. North texas getting 17 1/2 against a Ball State team that wont win a game all year. These werent games that just covered the spread by 25+ points, these were games that were just flat out lined wrong. Way Wrong.

There have been a lot of these games like this this year, and a lot of the cappers on this board have posted them and pounded those plays. That is the one and only way to beat the vig. No system of fading the public on certain games is going to win 52.5% long term. Just like no roulette system is gonna make the game of roulette +EV.

[cakasmaloy]

i appreciate everyones input. I hope others will take interest and help eliminate variables that may be irrelevant, or add variable to help make this more conisistent and profitable... ill post some more plays today if any come up

also, the reason i havent tried to apply this to totals is simply b/c my shitty sportsbook doesnt release totals until the friday or even saturday for some games... they conveniently have already adjusted the totals to the weeks line movement before posting them

[cakasmaloy]

I added a 6 pt teaser for the 2 games nationally televised on ESPN this week:
Troy -0.5
Nevada -2.5

[jayc88]

if you get on the plays before the line moves, you are going to win longterm .
A record of 9-3 means abolutely nothing , dont waste your money on this "system"

[LT Profits]

I have seen a lot of crap "systems" by novices posted here, but this one has some merit.

By the way, you CAN consider BCS conferences too if the pre-Wednesday move is RLM.

As for buying that game to +7, I would accept a loss as buying to "key" numbers does not work as well in CFB as it does in NFL unless the game total is in the low-40s or less (for the 7). I think that Toledo total was close to 60.

[LT Profits]

if you get on the plays before the line moves, you are going to win longterm .
A record of 9-3 means abolutely nothing , dont waste your money on this "system"

You''d still win without getting the absolute best number as long as you beat the closing number, preferably by at least a full point.

[jayc88]

You''d still win without getting the absolute best number as long as you beat the closing number, preferably by at least a full point.

Lt you are completely right about that , but just because the line moved 1 point until wednesday doesnt mean it will move another point or two till kickoff

[hhsilver]

cakas... thanks for posting this angle. It looks like something to pursue -- and it might be worth looking at for ncaab, though we have to consider hours, not days. The fact that LT said there might be merit here should encourage you to pursue it, and I hope, continue to post the info.

But please don't include buying points on games you are not "comfortable" with in the discussion and have your posted results disregard any points you actually bought. the whole idea of this is to provide a method for those who do not cap games and therefore have no basis for feeling "discomfort" about any game.

As for the weeknight tv sunbelt, etc games. I would avoid them because they do not fit your hypothesis. There is more interest simply because of national tv. I seen lines move a lot and then turn back significantly in the last hour or two before game time.

sorry if i am repeating what may have said in earlier posts. did not read the entire thread carefully.

[cakasmaloy]

thanks for the input, ill post results for the remainder of the season as they would be without buying any pts

[cakasmaloy]

adding

IDAHO +3

[JoshW]

One of the better systems I have seen posted on SBR. You are essentially following early sharp money by using some filters that actually make sense.

One thing to consider going forward is that the lines usually get quite a bit better later in the season in ncaaf, after the oddmakers have more numbers to work with to create lines.

[cakasmaloy]

One of the better systems I have seen posted on SBR. You are essentially following early sharp money by using some filters that actually make sense.

One thing to consider going forward is that the lines usually get quite a bit better later in the season in ncaaf, after the oddmakers have more numbers to work with to create lines.

i have also thought about whether this system would be more or less accurate considering where we are at in the season... also, id like to find out more about how the following variables factor in:
-double digit spreads (favo/under dog)
-conference matchups vs cross-conference matchups

anyone else have any variables that we can keep an eye on?

[TPowell]

I use the same in college basketball at times. Nobody conferences that preferrably arent on television and just follow the early money. It's a lot easier IMO because you just have to look at the 2-3 hours after the line is posted to see whats going on.

[cakasmaloy]

I use the same in college basketball at times. Nobody conferences that preferrably arent on television and just follow the early money. It's a lot easier IMO because you just have to look at the 2-3 hours after the line is posted to see whats going on.

have you seen much success with this in NCAAB? i feel like this would apply even moreso to bball except for the fact that the lines for the games generally dont come out until day of...

ALSO, the following plays have moved CONSISTENTLY in one direction since opening and STAYED that way (as opposed to fluctuating up and down, after the initial 1 pt shift)

KENT +6
AKRON +4.5
TOLEDO -7
UTAH ST -13.5
UTAH -6.5

[StraitShooter]

cakasmaloy..I for one, appreciate your post

[LT Profits]

Rice

[fadethepublic1]

have you seen much success with this in NCAAB? i feel like this would apply even moreso to bball except for the fact that the lines for the games generally dont come out until day of...

ALSO, the following plays have moved CONSISTENTLY in one direction since opening and STAYED that way (as opposed to fluctuating up and down, after the initial 1 pt shift)

KENT +6
AKRON +4.5
TOLEDO -7
UTAH ST -13.5
UTAH -6.5

Caka,
So far as of this morning I have the following teams....

KENT
AKRON
UTAH
TOLEDO
RICE
AIR FORCE
UTAH ST.

Correct me if I'm wrong but shouldn't the Mountain West conference get some action since they are not BCS? Or are you strictly just going w/Sun Belt, MAC & WAC??? Aloha from Hawaii.

[fadethepublic1]

Also, when is the cutoff time you're using? Is it Wednesday?, or by Friday? Friday is when alot of amateurs & public start to wager. Aloha from Hawaii.

[LT Profits]

TCU is ranked, so no Air Force according to this method.

That said, I like Air Force myself.

[KingKing]

thanks for posting this cakas. i think its $ and your sharing is very much appreciated.
best of luck!