I think im on to something...

[cakasmaloy]

technically the play is actually Temple according to this system which selects plays by the FIRST movement of 1.5+ ... Temple opened -12 and first moved to -13.5 before dropping to -10

[dvb02]

Cakas, thanks for clearing that up!

[Shahbucks]

Hey I read this thread and think I can help some. I bought into some college football system and a few things were pretty interesting. It's based on the point spreads and the win percentages of each point spread for the past 15+ Ncaaf seasons. It's a chase system, which looses some credibility, but along with what you have found out maybe you guys could back test this with cakasmaloys findings. Hopefully increase the win percentage and avoid some trap picks. I can't find time to so maybe you all could. I only ask that the picks be posted so I can see if theirs proof to help the win percentage.

(Actual inserts from the book)

Looking at both home and away favorites, I
discovered there wasn’t one number at which
they achieved the magical 52.7% winning
percentage needed to turn a profit. Not one!
Road favorites fared particularly poorly: At only
two of the point spreads did they even cover
more than 45% of the time. That’s why I’ll
say it again … If you want to ensure profits in
college betting - YOU SHOULD NEVER BET ON
A FAVORITE IN NCAA FOOTBALL.

-----Here is the percentages the author claims for Ncaaf and when to buy a half point to avoid push and increase win percentages(the real faq i want to tell you cakasmaloy). Remember it's no Favorites just home and away underdogs-------

Road Underdogs
Point Spread Win % Buy a ½ point Increases Win % To
+7 53.4 You should 56.7
+8 56.7 No 57.4
+9 57.4 You should 60.0
+10 59.2 You can 61.2
+11 61.2 You should 64.9
+12 64.9 No 66.2
+13 66.2 You can 67.9

Home Underdogs
Point Spread Win % Buy a ½ point Increases Win % To
+1 53.8 No 55.4
+2 55.4 No 57.2
+3 57.1 You should* 60.0
+5 53.6 No 54.4
+6 54.4 No 56.1
+7 55.6 Yes 59.7
+8 59.7 You can 61.5
+9 61.5 No 62.5
+10 61.8 You should 64.6
+11 64.6 You should 67.4
+12 67.4 No 67.8
+13 67.8 You should 71.1

##yes means always buy off the crucial numbers##No means 1/2 point wont help##You should means it's worth the increased juice##can means you avoid push doesn't increase win % based on juice. THE OTHERS WITH THE STARS MEAN ONLY IF THE JUICE IS WORTH IT MONEY WISE.


GL pm me any questions

[Shahbucks]

Oh and line over 13 they said their wasn't enough data to test.

[mdemps9190]

any plays for tonight?

[cakasmaloy]

I like Akron

[jellobiafra]

Just wanted to chime in and say I went 5-1 on games today following these principals.

Kent +10 (only loss)
BYU -10
ECU -13
UTA -20
LAT +9
UCF -22


Got -EV lines on almost all of them.

[Shortstop]

Nice! I like seeing posters beat the books!

[keyboarding]

Just wanted to chime in and say I went 5-1 on games today following these principals.

Which ones exactly? There's been some variance.

[jellobiafra]

Which ones exactly? There's been some variance.

All I did was look for smaller market games (non-BCS matchups between unranked teams not on national TV) with 3 or more points movement and played the side with steam.

[jellobiafra]

Thanks for the point keyboarding. Thinking back on this, I'm not sure if I required 3 full points for all the plays. It might have been 2 or more points. I will be doing it again next week for certain.

[polson22]

Thanks for the point keyboarding. Thinking back on this, I'm not sure if I required 3 full points for all the plays. It might have been 2 or more points. I will be doing it again next week for certain.

jello, good to hear you did well....... 3 points sounds like too many. not too many games move that far and i think at some point you're losing value chasing large moves.

sounds interesting that if you did 2 point moves, because alot move that much and you aren't giving up as much.

i think i may start playing this purely as a system (well a little interpretation in what the system picks but i won't override it with fundamental input any longer)

[themajormt]

Nice info guys

[dvb02]

Thanks for the point keyboarding. Thinking back on this, I'm not sure if I required 3 full points for all the plays. It might have been 2 or more points. I will be doing it again next week for certain.

Well please post your plays next week in here as well.

[keyboarding]

Well please post your plays next week in here as well.

Being told a system isn't enough, you need to be spoon fed? At least give the guy some points as incentive. Cheap fukks.

[PacmanJr_00]

great jobs guys..

a lot of movement of no.ill and c.mich already but c.mich. has actually been on tv a couple of times now. not sure they would qualify as low market.

[Jowframs]

What Looks Good Cakas?Fri And saturday?

[beastnutz]

Hey Cakasmaloy, what site do you have that you can follow the early line moves of games? Also does anyone know of any good odds websites that you can see sharp line moves that give you alerts? Does anyone have any other systems that has worked for them with line movements?

[chopperocker]

"

[Inkwell77]

lvasports seems like a better site for vegas line moves