I think im on to something...

[daneblazer]

Where in the world is Southern Miss -10 ?

[mcbaseball10]

Where in the world is Southern Miss -10 ?

He is posting the opening spreads

[cakasmaloy]

Ball St Doesnt qualify??Thanx for all you do

if u check sbrodds.com the line first moved from -4 to -5 in favor of BG i believe... then it dropped down in favor of BallsT... thats why im not playing this one... but BallSt could be the play here...??

[cakasmaloy]

Where in the world is Southern Miss -10 ?

Monday morning at sportsbetting.com.

[Serbone]

I like what I see here... how did the system do last week? And what are the FINAL selections for this week?
Thanks!

[cakasmaloy]

I like what I see here... how did the system do last week? And what are the FINAL selections for this week?
Thanks!

last week 7-4

final selections are posted on the previous page

[mcbaseball10]

Its easy as looking back through the thread Serbone, but thought I would be nice and put it up for you

final record: 7-4

kent +6 win
marshall -4 win
akron +4.5 loss
utah -6.5 win
idaho +3 win
temple -13 loss
utah st -13 loss
central mich -22 win
toledo -7.5 loss
fla int'l -4 win
fresno state -9.5 win

Teams to look at for this week with stronger leans in first half grouping:

OHIO -12.5
LATECH -18.5
KENT -5.5
S.MISS -10
NAVY -7
NTEXAS -1
------------
TULANE +20
RICE +18.5
N.ILL -4.5
FRESNOST -20
UTAH -14
WYOMING +12

[dimon]

GL guys...great work here

[mcbaseball10]

Just a little support on one of your strong plays in Ohio at top of your list.
Hope you don't mind my breakdown here Cakas, but your system pointed me to this game

Miami (OH) @ Ohio -14 Miami has been outscored 220-64 in its six games and will be playing at OU for the Bobcats Homecoming game --Miami ranks last in the FBS in both scoring offense (10.7 ppg) and turnover margin (-2.83 per game). --Ohio is second in the country in turnovers forced (19) and 13th in turnover margin (+1.17 per game). --Ohio has not given up a sack in four straight games --The RedHawks are learning on the go under redshirt freshman quarterback Zac Dysert, and have been awful all season. --Miami has given up 22 turnovers and 28 sacks in six games.

[Serbone]

Its easy as looking back through the thread Serbone, but thought I would be nice and put it up for you



Teams to look at for this week with stronger leans in first half grouping:

OHIO -12.5
LATECH -18.5
KENT -5.5
S.MISS -10
NAVY -7
NTEXAS -1
------------
TULANE +20
RICE +18.5
N.ILL -4.5
FRESNOST -20
UTAH -14
WYOMING +12

Thanks...!

[cakasmaloy]

if you guys arent able to get lines even close to the ones posted above due to movement, theni woudl suggest putting together a 3 or 4 team teaser with some of the stronger plays... i have gone 3/3 with 4 team 6 pt teasers so far this year using this method... obviously, i didnt post these for proof but i dont realyl care if anyone believes me either... jsut tryin to help! good luck

[zubzub]

if you guys arent able to get lines even close to the ones posted above due to movement, theni woudl suggest putting together a 3 or 4 team teaser with some of the stronger plays... i have gone 3/3 with 4 team 6 pt teasers so far this year using this method... obviously, i didnt post these for proof but i dont realyl care if anyone believes me either... jsut tryin to help! good luck

That seems like good strategical input.

Don't invest thought in concern for "proving" anything to doubters, complete waste of energy and totally pointless, this thing is not complex. If they raise doubt of claims give em silence and they might gtfo sooner than had you responded.

What though are you basing "stronger" plays upon?!?

Why are some plays "stronger"? You trying some other filter(s)?

[cakasmaloy]

That seems like good strategical input.

Don't invest thought in concern for "proving" anything to doubters, complete waste of energy and totally pointless, this thing is not complex. If they raise doubt of claims give em silence and they might gtfo sooner than had you responded.

What though are you basing "stronger" plays upon?!?

Why are some plays "stronger"? You trying some other filter(s)?

The plays are feel are "stronger" are the ones that show a very consistent movement in one direction such as KENT ST last week, and UL-Monroe the previous week. These two games, for example, moved 4pts or more since opening so it would only make sense to use games like these in a 6pt teaser b.c not only do u get back the original 4pts but u also get 2 more.

This week I feel strong plays are Ohio, S.Mississippi, and KentSt again. I also think LaTech and NTexas are strong. Im not promising that these teasers will hit, but chances are better when using these "system plays" because as everyone can check the history of these plays, it is RARE that one goes COMPLETELY haywire (such as TOLEDO last week)... usually they are VERY close. GL

[Jowframs]

Wagertracker had Ball St +4 Opener At pinnacle...Then dropped to +3

[cakasmaloy]

I dont know if anyone is proficient at Excel or another graph program, BUT

If anyone is able/willing to do the following, I think we would all be thankful...

Create an XY line chart of all the games that have qualified this season, color coding them by WINS and LOSSES. I think this would be an easy way of identify any trends that more likely result in winners vs losers. This data is accessible from SBRodds.com and I am willing to provide the data for all the games that qualify to the person who is willing to make the graph(s).

I was thinking it could be set up like so (correct me if im wrong):

Y axis: Line movement in 1/2pt degree starting from 0 - 6
X axis: Time broken down over 4 days by the hour (so basically broken down in (4) 24hr segments (96 hours total))

[Brutski]

This is a very interesting system and I plan to follow it over the course of the next few weeks to see how everything plays out. Thanks cakasmaloy for sharing your ideas!

[JimmyJet]

The following plays were what I got from my local and the ones I played based on my interpretation of cakasmaloy's system:

Ball State +4
Wyoming +10.5
Ohio -13.5
Rice +18
Akron + 8.5
Louisiana Tech -20
Kent -7
Hawaii + 9.5
So Miss -14
No Ill -4.5
Fresno St -19
North Texas -2

All for $220 to win $200

Saw the same erratic line movement on some but played the team that experienced the move as of Wednesday. All locked and loaded.
Good Luck all......your welcome caka...glad to be of help....JJ

[polson22]

cakas, i can definitely do the excel work for you. so message me if you want... not totally sure what the graph would be showing though.

where do you get the historical data for this year? and, how do you know whether a line has moved opposite way without watching it like a hawk?

i'm going to start looking at this type of system for more high profile games. seemed to call la-monroe the other night and cincy tonight.

[Brutski]

I went ahead and came up with a pilot template for the excel graph. I attached it to this post. Please take a look at it and let me know if you have any suggestions, etc. Also note that this graph represents this week only! I only graphed three teams: Kent, Ohio, and S. Miss. I graphed these teams because they are the teams that cakasmaloy felt strongest about. I got the data from sbrodds.com. Basically what I did was assume that the spreads opened up at noon on Sunday. So noon on Sunday is time = 0. Then, I just looked up when the numbers moved. The time on the bottom of the graph is in hours and represents hours from the initial time of zero when the spread opened. For example, you can see from the graph that Kent opened at -3.5 at time = zero. About 8 hours later, Kent jumped to -4. It is interesting to see the downward trends in these lines created on the graph. Based on this graph, I'd say the strongest choices would be Southern Miss. or Kent. The ohio game, however, slopes upward between the hours of 24 and 47. This means the numbers have not been consistently going down as with the Kent and S. Mississippi games. Anyway, take a look. Like I said, I'm sure this graph is far from perfect and at least it will serve as a base to work with.

Good luck everybody.

[cakasmaloy]

thanks brutski .. ill pm u

[cakasmaloy]

if you're interested in this theory, check out

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/248754-if-you-want-make-money-look-thread.html

[cakasmaloy]

no ball st was not a play b/c initial 1pt shift went towards BG... look 2 posts up and see how i edited jj's plays based on my interpretation of line movement... gl today

[Rawhide]

Love the System idea here Caka!

Dont understand the Tulane play as Houston ranked 23rd?

[Cubs2240]

Cakasmaloy, I don't care what peolpe say...you are the man......You made me some money this weekend. I owe you. GL the rest of the way man!

[cakasmaloy]

Love the System idea here Caka!

Dont understand the Tulane play as Houston ranked 23rd?

that was a mistake... sorry man. hope u still made money this weekend gl

[polson22]

Its easy as looking back through the thread Serbone, but thought I would be nice and put it up for you



Teams to look at for this week with stronger leans in first half grouping:

OHIO -12.5 W
LATECH -18.5 W
KENT -5.5 W
S.MISS -10 W
NAVY -7 L
NTEXAS -1 L
------------
TULANE +20 L
RICE +18.5 L
N.ILL -4.5 L
FRESNOST -20 P
UTAH -14 W
WYOMING +12 W

EDIT: note i didn't check where in the sequence these lines came from. i think it looked like it was only possible relevant on fresno. not sure though. others are moderately close to "line"

so 4-2 for official picks. 2-3-1 on rejected picks........ seems like playing AGAINST absolutely terrible teams in these non-bcs games is the way to go. and that's generally my hunch. basically play AGAINST certain teams. not a BCSer but illinois has been been perfect to play against. not sure bettors/bookmakers have caught onto how much rice has deterioated (lost their awesome QB and WR from last year).... also tulane, eastern michigan, miami of ohio.

[clover12346]

ok

[jellobiafra]

All you guys are doing is chasing steam. It's not that complicated.

[cakasmaloy]

another solid system week, sorry for screwing people over if they took Tulane vs (#23 ranked Houston)... this never should have been a play and i apologize. good news, however is that i am starting to get a feel for what seperates a "stronger" play from the rest... hence my post regarding KentSt, LaTech, S.Miss, Ohio and Ntexas(loss). I think this will be a solid week regarding system plays because as of now the lines have been relatively tame... it will be easy to identify the plays from now until wednesday. stay tuned

[LT Profits]

All you guys are doing is chasing steam. It's not that complicated.

More specifically, chasing initial steam on non-BCS conferences. Really not a bad idea.

[cakasmaloy]

guys,

this week im gonig to try to focus only on the plays I feel are the strongest by changing the "rule" to a minimum 1.5 pt shift. even though some games may qualify, i still will not be taking them all like usual... these last three weeks, i have been able to identify "stronger" plays, yet i still bet all the plays. therefore, this week im going to take the risk of only selecting a few "stronger" plays.

so far i have jumped on,

- TOLEDO +1 (sportsbetting.com) - this line has moved to TOLEDO -3.5 on some sites, but i would still play it. This will most likely be the STRONGEST play of the week much like KentSt the last two weeks and UL-Monroe 3 weeks ago. Whenever the movement has shown to be this drastic, the team most likely covers with ease.

- SAN DIEGO ST +9 - line is at +8 (opened at +9.5)

- ARK ST -10 - line is at -11.5 on most sites

I will most likely NOT be playing these games, despite a 1.5 pt movement (both teams are winless, and awful ATS):

MiamiOH +10
NewMexico +2.5

[cakasmaloy]

guys,

this week im gonig to try to focus only on the plays I feel are the strongest by changing the "rule" to a minimum 1.5 pt shift. even though some games may qualify, i still will not be taking them all like usual... these last three weeks, i have been able to identify "stronger" plays, yet i still bet all the plays. therefore, this week im going to take the risk of only selecting a few "stronger" plays.

so far i have jumped on,

- TOLEDO +1 (sportsbetting.com) - this line has moved to TOLEDO -3.5 on some sites, but i would still play it. This will most likely be the STRONGEST play of the week much like KentSt the last two weeks and UL-Monroe 3 weeks ago. Whenever the movement has shown to be this drastic, the team most likely covers with ease.

- SAN DIEGO ST +9 - line is at +8 (opened at +9.5)

- ARK ST -10 - line is at -11.5 on most sites

I will most likely NOT be playing these games, despite a 1.5 pt movement (both teams are winless, and awful ATS):

MiamiOH +10
NewMexico +2.5

ADDING:

NEW MEXICO +3 (bought .5 pt on sportsbetting.com) - this line has dropped from +4 to +1 on PINNACLE... despite my gut feelings of not playing NMEX, i cannot ignore a 3 pt movement.

[Jowframs]

Those are the ones That Are Standing Out!Thanx Cakas!

[CLASSIC ROCK]

I like that you are narrowing it down. I'm not a action better. The fewer the games the better for me

[cakasmaloy]

My plays for this week:

NewMexico +3
ArkSt -10
SanDiegoSt +9
Toledo +1

7pt 3Team Teaser:
E.Mich +9.5
UtahSt +6
Troy -12

2 Team Parlay:
Toledo -3
NewMexico -1

*note the spread differences are due to when I placed the wagers (the straight wagers were placed on Monday/Tuesday, the teaser and parlay was placed today (Wednesday))