College RLM -- Reverse Line Movement Tester

DeluxeLiner · 09-12-09, 10:24 AM

Up all night playing poker.. please post qualifying RLM plays, I can barely see right now.

CLASSIC ROCK · 09-12-09, 10:32 AM

I would think Duke would be a play

DeluxeLiner · 09-12-09, 10:36 AM

Virginia +11

Duke -1

Michigan +3 (using sportsinsights bettracker cumulative bet percentages)

So that is my list...VegasDave or anyone else want to add any or disqualify?

Rondo09 · 09-12-09, 10:37 AM

If someone could tell me where to find how many bets have been placed on each game, that would help.

RLM games I see:

Duke - 2
Wyoming + 31.5
Michigan +3
Virginia +11

DeluxeLiner · 09-12-09, 10:40 AM

Wyoming had two problems for me. 1) Not enough bets 2) The line movement concepts get fuzzy with large spreads, so I generally stay away.

Other than that... excellent!

Rondo09 · 09-12-09, 10:43 AM

I already have bets on ND and TCU. lol. This will be interesting.

brooks85 · 09-12-09, 10:44 AM

whats the deal with penn st/cuse total. 60% on the over and the line has dropped a ton.

DeluxeLiner · 09-12-09, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by Rondo09

I already have bets on ND and TCU. lol. This will be interesting.

Best of luck sir. Very curious about those two games

VegasDave · 09-12-09, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by DeluxeLiner

Virginia +11

Duke -1

Michigan +3 (using sportsinsights bettracker cumulative bet percentages)

So that is my list...VegasDave or anyone else want to add any or disqualify?

I'll take your word on Duke, didn't get a chance to see it.

Michigan qualifies, but man, Virginia is a total RLM slam dunk. That one will be interesting.

DeluxeLiner · 09-12-09, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by VegasDave

I'll take your word on Duke, didn't get a chance to see it.

Michigan qualifies, but man, Virginia is a total RLM slam dunk. That one will be interesting.

Agree about Virginia. That is the most clear cut RLM.

Duke was getting 34/66 (according to bettracker), well over 10k bets with over a point of movement (even to eventually -2.5)

Regarding the Michigan/Notre Dame game...Maybe we should consider perhaps adding into our college RLM guidelines that the game can't be a "feature" game. I think this particular game is a crapshoot, and there has been too much discussion in the public. Basically cutting out games ESPN won't stfu about during upcoming week.

brooks85 · 09-12-09, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by brooks85

whats the deal with penn st/cuse total. 60% on the over and the line has dropped a ton.

need to follow my own advice. I was also looking at the pit/buf game, 6-8 point line movement on the total. Went from 48ish to 42. Over hit in the first half.

VegasDave · 09-12-09, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by DeluxeLiner

Regarding the Michigan/Notre Dame game...Maybe we should consider perhaps adding into our college RLM guidelines that the game can't be a "feature" game. I think this particular game is a crapshoot, and there has been too much discussion in the public. Basically cutting out games ESPN won't stfu about during upcoming week.

I kind of agree. This could have just as easily been a "you know what, so many squares are going to be all over this game, let's just make it a FG".

So Duke and Virginia this week? Perfecto.

brooks85 · 09-12-09, 01:46 PM

Look at the michigan/ND total. Majority on the Over and line drops 2points.

Rondo09 · 09-12-09, 06:17 PM

RML today = 3-0

Duke wins
Michigan wins
Wyoming wins

freeVICK · 09-12-09, 06:36 PM

virginia got killed

Rondo09 · 09-12-09, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by freeVICK

virginia got killed

Closing line was TCU - 13

stevenc333 · 09-12-09, 06:46 PM

hey guys...new to the site..looking to read some good info....but I have one burning question right now...where can I see the total number of bets placed on a team...I keep hearing you guys refer to it but don't know where you're looking....any info would be appreciated

freeVICK · 09-12-09, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by Rondo09

Closing line was TCU - 13

and TCU won 30-14 which is a 16 point victory...

Rondo09 · 09-12-09, 10:51 PM

Originally posted by freeVICK

and TCU won 30-14 which is a 16 point victory...

Yes but the point is TCU didnt close as RLM.

The only RLM today was Michigan +3 (won outright), Duke -2 (won big) and Wyoming +31.5 (covered).

3-0 today, coupled with 1-0 last week. 4-0 on the season.

threeg5 · 09-13-09, 03:46 AM

Originally posted by stevenc333

hey guys...new to the site..looking to read some good info....but I have one burning question right now...where can I see the total number of bets placed on a team...I keep hearing you guys refer to it but don't know where you're looking....any info would be appreciated

1. GO to covers[dot]com
2. move cursor over consensus.
a drop down menu will come up
move cursor over consenus picks
click on sport of choice

stevenc333 · 09-13-09, 07:27 AM

Isn't that just how many people are picking them on the site and not actually betting money on them?...that's what I thought at least....please help

threeg5 · 09-13-09, 11:06 PM

Originally posted by stevenc333

Isn't that just how many people are picking them on the site and not actually betting money on them?...that's what I thought at least....please help

I do not know that answer but there is also a place on there that shows the line history and teh shows the amount of bets places for sure on one side and the other as well as the line movement with it.

DeluxeLiner · 09-14-09, 05:47 AM

So it was a pretty good day for RLM this last Saturday. I know the Virginia play lost, but it was a close loss and RLM is not a "lock", so losses are very much expected. Was super tired so I didn't track the Virginia/TCU game up to the last second because I went to sleep (Thanks for the info Rondo).

So Michigan ended up winning eh...hmmm I actually made this play but I still think that games that receive a lot of ESPN attention add variables to the RLM equation, and I want to find untainted games (I wonder if it helped that Notre Dame was hyped up all week). I really don't want our RLM plays to become a "system" where we are auto-betting without considering other factors, as well as trying to understand why the line is moving.

Rondo do you know what the side percentages were for Wyoming at game time? Looking back at the games is helpful to see if maybe we should adjust our guidelines if we see trends.

JIMBOK · 09-15-09, 02:14 PM

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DeluxeLiner · 09-15-09, 03:26 PM

Thanks Jimbok! Good info!

Rondo09 · 09-15-09, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by DeluxeLiner

So it was a pretty good day for RLM this last Saturday. I know the Virginia play lost, but it was a close loss and RLM is not a "lock", so losses are very much expected. Was super tired so I didn't track the Virginia/TCU game up to the last second because I went to sleep (Thanks for the info Rondo).

So Michigan ended up winning eh...hmmm I actually made this play but I still think that games that receive a lot of ESPN attention add variables to the RLM equation, and I want to find untainted games (I wonder if it helped that Notre Dame was hyped up all week). I really don't want our RLM plays to become a "system" where we are auto-betting without considering other factors, as well as trying to understand why the line is moving.

Rondo do you know what the side percentages were for Wyoming at game time? Looking back at the games is helpful to see if maybe we should adjust our guidelines if we see trends.

Ugh, I wrote the lines down but not the percentages. It was in the 60's. I want to say somewhere between 62-66.

JimmyJet · 09-15-09, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by Rondo09

If someone could tell me where to find how many bets have been placed on each game, that would help.

RLM games I see:

Duke - 2
Wyoming + 31.5
Michigan +3
Virginia +11

They are available on this site:

Just a moment...

http://www.pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-stats/sportsbook-spy-insights/

JimmyJet · 09-15-09, 10:35 PM

Example from above site: # of bets

09/17/09101Georgia Tech828029%10%30%7:45PM102Miami-4.5-10571%90%70%

DeluxeLiner · 09-16-09, 12:50 AM

Going to start looking at lines for this week... btw Jimmy I like your early line movement interest keep it up! Early line movement is always interesting to study. Early line movement and steam plays and RLM are all interconnected.

JIMBOK · 09-16-09, 09:42 AM

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DeluxeLiner · 09-16-09, 12:09 PM

I have been using sports insight. I believe that is the one LT profits uses as well.

Rondo09 · 09-16-09, 03:03 PM

I've been using SBR.

Rondo09 · 09-16-09, 03:34 PM

Monitoring plays right now, but again will not pull the trigger until saturday.

JIMBOK · 09-16-09, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by DeluxeLiner

I have been using sports insight. I believe that is the one LT profits uses as well.

Does anyone have the premium package??

SportsInsights · 09-17-09, 09:39 AM

VegasInsider betting percentages only come from Sportsbooks.com. SBRLines betting percentages only come from 5Dimes. Where Pregame's betting percentages come from nobody knows. They will not tell. SportsInsights betting percentages come from 7 online sportsbooks. We've been trackign bettin action since 1999. We offer a big sampling size. Yes, our betting percentage data will differ significantly from only viewing one sportsbooks action.

Dan