College RLM -- Reverse Line Movement Tester

Rondo09 · 09-06-09, 07:55 PM

Originally posted by VegasDave

Well he took it because he believed it moved from 11 to 10.5, which I wasn't able to confirm enough for my liking... but either way, coincidence or RLM, I wish him the best in it holding on

Actually it looks like the odds are indeed at -12ish. I made this bet at around 2pm, and it had moved 0.5 everywhere towards CSU, and 1.0 on bodog. Hmm.

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 07:55 PM

Ok i gotcha thanks man..... i got the game opening at -9.5 and its -12.5 now

VegasDave · 09-06-09, 07:56 PM

Adam, here's a video I did on it last year; not FACT, just one man's opinion;

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 08:09 PM

VERY nice video dave!!!

VegasDave · 09-06-09, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by AdamL2424

VERY nice video dave!!!

Glad you liked it!

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 10:01 PM

Hey dave what is up with the Florida state game? Opened at -6.5 and has stayed there but its getting close to 60% on Miami? but yet in the Cincy Rutgers game it opened at -6 and its now 4.5 with the precentage almost even?

DeluxeLiner · 09-06-09, 10:45 PM

Dave, regarding Army, I think there was only one book that said it opened at 1 on sbrodds and all the other were consistent at opening 5 or 5.5 so I am going to assume it qualified, and I think we can add it in. So...

SEASON 1-0-0

Regarding people who read the original article...

Dave and I have had good results working with the 60/40 and reverse line movement with the NFL, however college has been a different story. We are trying to be more selective with our RLM plays, and gain more consistency. In order to gain more consistency I am looking for the qualifications for RLM to be more exaggerated.

Army not meeting the 10k threshold...

I personally decided to go through with the Army play even though it didn't meet 10,000 bets was because we were very close to kickoff, and were close to 10k. For bigger games we can qualify RLM earlier because they pass the 10k threshold well before kickoff, but since this was a small market game it's going to be hard for a good value game to meet this requirement.

This is a tester thread and we are trying to figure out what works and what doesn't. All the comments and feedback are very welcome.

VegasDave · 09-06-09, 10:49 PM

Right on DL. Obviously we aren't trying to pad our stats or anything. We agreed Army was a strong play assuming the opening line was legit, which you confirmed

.

VegasDave · 09-06-09, 10:53 PM

Originally posted by AdamL2424

Hey dave what is up with the Florida state game? Opened at -6.5 and has stayed there but its getting close to 60% on Miami? but yet in the Cincy Rutgers game it opened at -6 and its now 4.5 with the precentage almost even?

Don't try too hard, as tempting as it is! 60/40 is not really worth getting too excited about, as not every game, especially with so many games like the college level, is going to be exactly 50/50. That's why generally we wait until 70/30, unless there is some big reason to make an exception (Army moving a whole two points at 68/32, for instance).

If there is RLM in the 60% range with 10,000+ bets, yeah, its worth taking a look at. But As far as "the line not moving", that's really only interesting to me at 70%+.

Then again, this is an EXPERIMENTAL thread because we don't really know exactly what works in college! These are just my thoughts from what has worked in the NFL game

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 10:57 PM

Alright im going to follow the thread closely not that ill be much help but i will try. Thanks Dave and Deluxe

VegasDave · 09-06-09, 11:08 PM

Deluxe has an NFL RLM thread running too, and look out for my "Philosophy Picks" this season if this stuff interests you. Let's get'em this season

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 11:18 PM

Lets do it!!!!

snapstick · 09-06-09, 11:27 PM

RLM threads come and go. The bottom line is dont get to excited....these plays only hit of a rate of about 50-52 percent. Be carefull, you might have some good days but you will have alot of terrible days. It works much better in baseball because of the better payoffs on the ML big dog winners.

snapstick · 09-06-09, 11:28 PM

Also make sure you track injuries or changes to key players status for games. Alot of times lines change and they look like sharps plays but they are not, they are adjusted lines by the books due to late scratches or injuries.

DeluxeLiner · 09-07-09, 07:06 AM

Originally posted by snapstick

Also make sure you track injuries or changes to key players status for games. Alot of times lines change and they look like sharps plays but they are not, they are adjusted lines by the books due to late scratches or injuries.

Very good point snap. We need to look at conventional analysis of a game (including injuries and late scratches), so that we understand all the angles for why the line is moving. We are trying to ride the sharp plays.

JimmyJet · 09-07-09, 09:15 AM

What is confusing to me when attempting to use this RLM method is that I have looked at this site (SBR) and also used pregame site's Sportbookspy page and have at times seen opposite stats showing the percentage on a side. How does this happen? Are they just monitoring different books or are they rigging the percentages to be misleading to those trying to take advantage of sharp line movement. Would think that you must decide on one site because if you look at sportinsights, SBR and pregame you are going to see at times opposite percentages on a selected side. How do you reconcile these differences? Would sleep better if I knew which site presents the real percentages. Thanks for the thread....JJ

AdamL2424 · 09-07-09, 10:08 AM

Just looked at sportsbookspy and i think the cincy game is RLM. They have 74% Rugters and the lined dropped from -6 to -4.5... what you think Dave? JJ just said this but i wanted to give you the facts.... good looking out JJ

Cougar Bait · 09-07-09, 10:34 AM

BYU with 82% early money and spread moved from -18 to -17...what site are you using to access the number of bets?

threeg5 · 09-07-09, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by Rondo09

Where can you go to find %'s?

i.e. if I want to see how many people have bet on Colorado.

I use covers[dot]com just like how they lay it out. My opinion

Originally posted by JimmyJet

I like this angle but does not seem to be consistent in producing winners. There is a rule produced by letsgohoosiers that says if Matchbook does not have the best line available....bet the side at the book with a better line for a winner. This would lead you to wager on Memphis because Bodog has 19.....and on Colorado because again Bodog has 10 1/2. Does this work best with a certain book off or many books off...are there books whose lines are the sharpest or sharper than matchbook where they have market odds?

I hope you didnt do that

AdamL2424 · 09-07-09, 10:54 AM

im using sportsinsite

VegasDave · 09-07-09, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by AdamL2424

Just looked at sportsbookspy and i think the cincy game is RLM. They have 74% Rugters and the lined dropped from -6 to -4.5... what you think Dave? JJ just said this but i wanted to give you the facts.... good looking out JJ

SBROdds has it 53/47 and SportsInsights has it at 50/50.

JimmyJet · 09-07-09, 12:45 PM

Originally posted by threeg5

I use covers[dot]com just like how they lay it out. My opinion

I hope you didnt do that

I did and lost both....am beginning to believe that Bodog is one of the sharpest lines......

threeg5 · 09-07-09, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by JimmyJet

I did and lost both....am beginning to believe that Bodog is one of the sharpest lines......

Dude Bodog is on fire with their stuff man.

You have to really know what you are doing. I use them and damn their lines are usually a little off from what everyone posts here. I ask a bunch of questions and try to figure out why they are like that.

I figure that once I get that understood I can sit back and use the more "square" books for a little profit scrappin'

I will keep you posted for when I go broke

so the thought is learn to use the sharpest book and hardest book to cap against and then use the not so sharp books to actually use.
Kinda like college 40 or 60k for a piece of paper that says I can nothing that 6 months or a year worth of hands on wouldn't do.

Cougar Bait · 09-07-09, 09:39 PM

Page Not Found - Sports Insights

http://www.sportsinsights.com/spreadbasic.aspx?sport_id=11&v_nss=339&v_date=9/12/2009&gtype=4

thoughts...?

AdamL2424 · 09-07-09, 10:59 PM

hmmmmmm

DeluxeLiner · 09-08-09, 06:17 AM

sbrodds is reporting Notre Dame/Michigan game as about a 50/50 right now, while sports insight has it as a 66/34. I do see that Michigan is less of a dog than it opened as 4.5 to 3 (at some books).

Regardless sportsinsights is only reporting 966 bets, which isn't a large enough sample. If I would say at this point Michigan would be a "philosophy pick" (copyright vegas dave). There is a sharp money thought that early money is usually sharper money and the line is obviously moving the opposite direction I would have initially thought.

DeluxeLiner · 09-09-09, 03:52 PM

What is up with sbrodds and the notre dame/michigan game? Reporting 50/50 still, which isn't the 69/41 i am seeing at sportsinsight. 3k bets on the game thus far. If Michigan does develop into a play i'll be splitting my money between the Michigan moneyline and spread, but for tracking purposes in this thread we will just be on the spread.

I think this brings up an interesting concept. If you believe RLM is occuring and the RLM is on the home dog with a spread close to zero, it's probably a pretty good idea to put some on the moneyline. This is just a theory that i've done a few times in the NFL, wonder if it'd apply to this college ball test.

jholl · 09-09-09, 03:56 PM

this system DOES not work. if you dont CHERRY PICK , and track the line moves on EVERY GAME, you will find the RLM is 45-55%
over the long haul . dont waste your time

Cougar Bait · 09-09-09, 04:06 PM

You are obsessed with RLM Deluxe, but it's okay. It is something that is a great topic and it will be interesting to see how this thread develops from theory to application. Again, lay down the ground rules for me...sample size, amount of movement, etc. thanks

Cougar Bait · 09-09-09, 04:13 PM

I see Michigan/Notre Dame at 3,197 bets with 69% on Notre Dame and at least a 1 point RLM depending on your book.

bostonbasher · 09-09-09, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by threeg5

Dude Bodog is on fire with their stuff man.

You have to really know what you are doing. I use them and damn their lines are usually a little off from what everyone posts here. I ask a bunch of questions and try to figure out why they are like that.

I figure that once I get that understood I can sit back and use the more "square" books for a little profit scrappin'

I will keep you posted for when I go broke

so the thought is learn to use the sharpest book and hardest book to cap against and then use the not so sharp books to actually use.
Kinda like college 40 or 60k for a piece of paper that says I can nothing that 6 months or a year worth of hands on wouldn't do.

Are you speaking English here?

Cougar Bait · 09-09-09, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by jholl

this system DOES not work. if you dont CHERRY PICK , and track the line moves on EVERY GAME, you will find the RLM is 45-55%
over the long haul . dont waste your time

I am not positive, but I assume that is why they are "cherry picking." Only useful if you can find a system that it works with.

threeg5 · 09-09-09, 09:53 PM

it should read like this

Kinda like college 40 or 60k for a piece of paper that says you can do it(weather you can or not) and with the exception of maybe lawyers and doctors it is nothing that 6 months or a year worth of hands on wouldn't do.

dont know it that helps but, why did I write it dont know it came to mind when I was writing. right or wrong it is what it is and sorry for the confusion.

DeluxeLiner · 09-10-09, 04:06 AM

Originally posted by Cougar Bait

You are obsessed with RLM Deluxe, but it's okay. It is something that is a great topic and it will be interesting to see how this thread develops from theory to application. Again, lay down the ground rules for me...sample size, amount of movement, etc. thanks

So the sample size needs to be about 10k. The amount of movement needs to be at least a point, and the percentage of the sides needs to be about a 70/30.

Last week we took Army, and bent the rules a little bit. Army had 9k+ bets when we took it. Army had 2 points of movement (meeting the one point requirement), and it was close to 70/30 (not quite there though). What really made it a play though was the heavy line movement, and that it was very close to meeting the other guidelines.

Army won the game handily as the dog, so week 1 worked out pretty well.

This is an experimental thread so we are adjusting the guidelines and trying to learn from mistakes and such. Hopefully it works out well.

And yes I am pretty obsessed with RLM. I have a similar thread in the NFL forum too

Rondo09 · 09-10-09, 01:13 PM

Deluxe, where can you see how many people have bet on a particular game?