College RLM -- Reverse Line Movement Tester

VegasDave · 09-06-09, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by DeluxeLiner

So I only made one play Saturday and that was Army +3.5 which they were able to win. There would have been no play today if we kept strictly to the 70/30 and 10,000 bets with at least 1 point of movement. The Army game had 2 points of movement with over 9,000 bets and was close in the upper 60s. This was the only game I felt RLM was clear enough to move forward.

Should we count this Army game into record? should we include tech and state? or none of them?

I would say no to Tech and State but yes to Army if we can confirm the opening line...

SportsInsight said 5.5, SBROdds said Army +1 was the opener...

If the line did indeed move 2 whole points against Army, it was an obvious RLM we both agreed on. If it didn't, then we just got lucky, and that wasn't really the point of this experiment.

Can anyone confirm what the opening line was?

Rondo09 · 09-06-09, 11:37 AM

Where can you go to find %'s?

i.e. if I want to see how many people have bet on Colorado.

Rondo09 · 09-06-09, 12:04 PM

61% of bets going on Colorado.

Opening line - CU - 11.5
Current line - CU -10.5

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 12:41 PM

Im new to this and trying to learn so bear with me please.... Is cincy rlm? according to SBR 61% is on them but the line has dropped a point and half?

VegasDave · 09-06-09, 12:45 PM

Originally posted by AdamL2424

Im new to this and trying to learn so bear with me please.... Is cincy rlm? according to SBR 61% is on them but the line has dropped a point and half?

Hey Adam,

No, that's standard line movement because they are the underdog.

If people are betting Cinci +7 more than Rutgers -7, the line will move to +6.5/-6.5 to try and entice some Rutgers backers. If Cincy is still the popular play, they will move it to +6.0/-6.0, etc.

REVERSE line movement would be if Cincy was now somehow +8.5 despite action coming in on them.

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 12:48 PM

Ok thank you i think i get it gonna study the idea a little bit more before i post again haha thanks again

VegasDave · 09-06-09, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by AdamL2424

Ok thank you i think i get it gonna study the idea a little bit more before i post again haha thanks again

No worries! You should always ask when you aren't clear on something. It's better to learn through discussion than learning the hard way

.

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 12:51 PM

Can you explain the colorado game? 60% is on them they are the favorite and the line has DROPPED 1%

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 12:51 PM

Very true thanks alot man!!

VegasDave · 09-06-09, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by AdamL2424

Can you explain the colorado game? 60% is on them they are the favorite and the line has DROPPED 1.5%

Looks to me like it opened at 11 in most places and still is right around there. Are you seeing something different?

JimmyJet · 09-06-09, 01:32 PM

I like this angle but does not seem to be consistent in producing winners. There is a rule produced by letsgohoosiers that says if Matchbook does not have the best line available....bet the side at the book with a better line for a winner. This would lead you to wager on Memphis because Bodog has 19.....and on Colorado because again Bodog has 10 1/2. Does this work best with a certain book off or many books off...are there books whose lines are the sharpest or sharper than matchbook where they have market odds?

Rondo09 · 09-06-09, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by VegasDave

Looks to me like it opened at 11 in most places and still is right around there. Are you seeing something different?

http://www.****************.com/bettracker.htm

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 01:43 PM

i got it opening at 11.5 and its 10.5 at bodog

JimmyJet · 09-06-09, 01:49 PM

Colorado opened at 5Dimes at 11.5 and is now 11 there and as low as 10.5 at Bodog. 60% on Colorado but line has moved lower so does that make the RLM play Colo St?

Rondo09 · 09-06-09, 01:51 PM

I guess it would help to know where the OP got his lines. Without knowing that, we can't effectively implement his strategy.

JimmyJet · 09-06-09, 01:52 PM

The Mississippi line shows normal movement with 57% on Miss and line going higher to as much as 19 at Bodog from open at 16 at 5Dimes.

JimmyJet · 09-06-09, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by Rondo09

Where can you go to find %'s?

i.e. if I want to see how many people have bet on Colorado.

Betting Odds: Moneylines, Point Spreads & Totals for Today

http://www.sbrodds.com/#/odds/ncaaf/game/pointspread.html

Free Betting Odds and line movements in real time at Sportsbook Review. Check out Sportsbook Review's live odds comparison table, with lines and spreads for all major sports.

They give them right here on this site.

Rondo09 · 09-06-09, 02:19 PM

Thanks jet.

Using RLM, the only matchup you want to touch is Colorado vs Colorado st. Even that one is a close call.

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 02:20 PM

so who would you take in that game? colorado or state?

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 02:30 PM

Its colorado since they are the 60% but like he said its a close call

VegasDave · 09-06-09, 02:48 PM

Colorado would be the play, but I really don't think there is enough here at 60/40 action on most places haven't seen any movement. Good luck though if you try it out!

Rondo09 · 09-06-09, 03:34 PM

Using RLM, Colorado St would be the play.

Colorado at 60-61%, but the line has shifted from Colorado -11.5 to Colorado -11/10.5.

But it is close, and might be a bit of a stretch.

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 06:04 PM

Nah Colorado would be the play if you were gonna play. IF it were colorado st. they would have to be over 60% and the line would have to be going up in there favor to be RLM. am i correct vegas dave?

VegasDave · 09-06-09, 07:12 PM

Originally posted by AdamL2424

Nah Colorado would be the play if you were gonna play. IF it were colorado st. they would have to be over 60% and the line would have to be going up in there favor to be RLM. am i correct vegas dave?

Actually, Colorado State would be the play, sorry if I was a bit confusing!

Think of it this way. 60% of action is already on Colorado, and then they move the spread to make Colorado even MORE enticing. Why would bookies want more action on the side that is already getting plenty of action?

That means we bet Colorado State, because the bookies reaaaaly want us on Colorado

Rondo09 · 09-06-09, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by VegasDave

Actually, Colorado State would be the play, sorry if I was a bit confusing!

Think of it this way. 60% of action is already on Colorado, and then they move the spread to make Colorado even MORE enticing. Why would bookies want more action on the side that is already getting plenty of action?

That means we bet Colorado State, because the bookies reaaaaly want us on Colorado

^^ This is what I was saying.

Which is why I took Colorado St +10.5.

17-0 Rams

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 07:23 PM

Okay sorry guys im not getting it haha. SO do we always take the underdog?

VegasDave · 09-06-09, 07:24 PM

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 07:27 PM

ahhh okay so no matter who the majority is on and we have RLM WE always take the dogs?

VegasDave · 09-06-09, 07:27 PM

Originally posted by AdamL2424

Okay sorry guys im not getting it haha. SO do we always take the underdog?

USUALLY, yes. But the same rules would apply the other way...

If a team was at +7.0 and was getting 70% of the betting action and then they became +7.5, we'd take the favorite -7.5 because the line moved REVERSE what it should have.

But 99% of the time, it is a favorite that goes from say -6 to -5 despite getting bet on heavy, and we'll take the dog +5.

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 07:32 PM

SO the line has to down for the favorites and up for dogs right?

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 07:33 PM

The final lines have Colorado at -13 at places.... that isnt RLM is it Dave?

VegasDave · 09-06-09, 07:41 PM

Originally posted by AdamL2424

SO the line has to down for the favorites and up for dogs right?

Yes, correct.

Originally posted by AdamL2424

The final lines have Colorado at -13 at places.... that isnt RLM is it Dave?

Nope, because Colorado was bet on more, so it makes sense that they moved to 13 to try to get people to get late action on Colorado State.

AdamL2424 · 09-06-09, 07:44 PM

okay so rondo taking colorado state was not anything to do with RLM? not knocking your pick Rondo just trying to get this straight haha.... looking like a great pick

VegasDave · 09-06-09, 07:50 PM

Originally posted by AdamL2424

okay so rondo taking colorado state was not anything to do with RLM? not knocking your pick Rondo just trying to get this straight haha.... looking like a great pick

Well he took it because he believed it moved from 11 to 10.5, which I wasn't able to confirm enough for my liking... but either way, coincidence or RLM, I wish him the best in it holding on

Rondo09 · 09-06-09, 07:51 PM

Originally posted by AdamL2424

okay so rondo taking colorado state was not anything to do with RLM? not knocking your pick Rondo just trying to get this straight haha.... looking like a great pick

Haha, thanks. But it actually was RLM.

One way to think about it: Imagine a line with two arrows, each going in opposite directions. 60% of people were betting on Colorado - so if the opening line was Colorado -11.5, you'd think it would..say.. go to Colorado -12. Instead, it went to Colorado -10.5/11. How does the line for the favorite go down if the majority is betting on the favorite? The "sharps", or "smart money", is going on the underdog. That's why the line is decreasing.

To look out for RLM - look for games in which 60%+ of the public is betting one way. Then, see if the line movement is in agreement with the majority of the betting public. If it is NOT, you have RLM.