Mcbaseball NCAA Football Season thread

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  • mcbaseball10
    SBR MVP
    • 02-11-09
    • 2866

    #106
    To win 1 unit

    Air Force +4½
    -------------------
    Connecticut +4½
    -------------------
    Alabama -4½ (-105)

    ____________________________
    NCAA Football Regular season and Bowl Bets Through 12/23/2009

    51-30 (63% +27.55 units)
    _____________________
    Comment
    • BiffTFinancial
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-29-09
      • 22670

      #107
      Originally posted by mcbaseball10
      In the blistery Ohio cold for the week, first chance I've had to post. Picks for other bowl games later. Off to a good start with Midd. Tenn. very impressive victory. Good call biff.



      ____________________________
      NCAA Football Regular season Bets Through 12/19/2009

      51-30 (63% +27.55 units)
      _____________________
      well, let's be fair, you called it first. where are you in Ohio? i live on east side of Cleveland. and yes, it's pretty cold.

      like your SMU pick - i'm on that too, small. as i figure out my card for the weekend, i love Kentucky (even without the hook now) and also like OU/Marshall under a lot. on the fence on BC and Georgia. think i'll probably no-play BC but play UGA. any thoughts on A&M/UGA? I think UGA gets Green back and Richt makes a recruiting statement, finishing a disappointing year by pounding A&M in the bowl (not unlike LSU over GA Tech last year).

      like your Air Force and Bama picks a lot. AF is one of my favorite picks of the bowl season. not sure about So Car/UConn. i've gone back and forth on that one about five times already.
      Comment
      • mcbaseball10
        SBR MVP
        • 02-11-09
        • 2866

        #108
        Drove from Miami Florida to visit my family in Dayton/Cincy area. Been sneezing the whole time I have been here.

        Would have to say Georgia uses the win over Tech to catapult them forward into being a contender again next year. The talent level there is much deeper than at A&M which will be crucial towards the end of the game. Richt will take a more active role in the defense and key on slowing down QB Johnson. I have looked at Georgia, but have been waiting on Green's status.

        I will take a look at the OU/Marshall game.
        I thought about BC, but USC with another month practicing with their young players scares me. They have so much young talent that its hard to bet against them with a middle of the road ACC team.
        Comment
        • mcbaseball10
          SBR MVP
          • 02-11-09
          • 2866

          #109
          Originally posted by mcbaseball10

          To win 1 unit

          WIN SMU +13 (-120)
          ____________________________
          NCAA Football Regular season Bets Through 12/24/2009

          52-30 (63% +28.55 units)
          _____________________
          Comment
          • mcbaseball10
            SBR MVP
            • 02-11-09
            • 2866

            #110
            Merry Christmas everyone!
            Comment
            • BiffTFinancial
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 01-29-09
              • 22670

              #111
              nice call on SMU. Merry Christmas to you too.
              Comment
              • mcbaseball10
                SBR MVP
                • 02-11-09
                • 2866

                #112
                Thanks biff. What number did you get the Marshall over at?

                North Carolina is now a play.

                Added play

                To win 1 unit
                North Carolina +2
                Comment
                • mcbaseball10
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-11-09
                  • 2866

                  #113
                  Tailing biff on this play

                  To win 1 unit
                  Ohio v. Marshall Under 48

                  ____________________________
                  NCAA Football Regular season Bets Through 12/25/2009

                  52-30 (63% +28.55 units)
                  _____________________
                  Comment
                  • mcbaseball10
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-11-09
                    • 2866

                    #114
                    Originally posted by mcbaseball10

                    To win 1 unit
                    PUSH North Carolina +2
                    Originally posted by mcbaseball10;281678

                    [U
                    To win 1 unit[/U]
                    WIN Ohio v. Marshall Under 48
                    ____________________________
                    NCAA Football Regular season Bets Through 12/26/2009

                    53-30-1 (64% +29.55 units)
                    _____________________
                    Comment
                    • mcbaseball10
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-11-09
                      • 2866

                      #115
                      Finally home..

                      Good call on the Under biff.
                      Comment
                      • mcbaseball10
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-11-09
                        • 2866

                        #116
                        (copy and paste of current pending games)

                        To win 1 unit

                        Air Force +4½
                        -------------------
                        Connecticut +4½
                        -------------------
                        Alabama -4½ (-105)
                        Comment
                        • uva3021
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 03-01-07
                          • 537

                          #117
                          wtg bro, on airforce with ya
                          Comment
                          • mcbaseball10
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-11-09
                            • 2866

                            #118
                            Originally posted by uva3021
                            wtg bro, on airforce with ya

                            Thanks uva.
                            Comment
                            • Shortstop
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 01-02-09
                              • 27281

                              #119
                              Good Luck buddy!
                              Comment
                              • BiffTFinancial
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-29-09
                                • 22670

                                #120
                                Nice! glad to see that you tailed. living in MAC country has to be good for something...
                                Comment
                                • mcbaseball10
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 02-11-09
                                  • 2866

                                  #121
                                  Originally posted by Shortstop
                                  Good Luck buddy!
                                  Thanks shorty!
                                  Comment
                                  • mcbaseball10
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-11-09
                                    • 2866

                                    #122
                                    (From earlier post)

                                    Would have to say Georgia uses the win over Tech to catapult them forward into being a contender again next year. The talent level there is much deeper than at A&M which will be crucial towards the end of the game. Richt will take a more active role in the defense and key on slowing down QB Johnson. I have looked at Georgia, but have been waiting on Green's status.


                                    Updated 10/28 10:00 AM on collegeinjuryreport.com

                                    Green's status updated to probable for today's game, making this a play. Got it at even money giving up the extra 1/2 pt.

                                    To win 1 unit

                                    Georgia -7 (EVEN)

                                    ___________________________
                                    NCAA Football Regular season and bowl game Bets Through 12/26/2009

                                    53-30-1 (64% +29.55 units)
                                    _____________________
                                    Comment
                                    • mcbaseball10
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-11-09
                                      • 2866

                                      #123
                                      Originally posted by mcbaseball10
                                      (From earlier post)

                                      Would have to say Georgia uses the win over Tech to catapult them forward into being a contender again next year. The talent level there is much deeper than at A&M which will be crucial towards the end of the game. Richt will take a more active role in the defense and key on slowing down QB Johnson. I have looked at Georgia, but have been waiting on Green's status.


                                      Updated 10/28 10:00 AM on collegeinjuryreport.com

                                      Green's status updated to probable for today's game, making this a play. Got it at even money giving up the extra 1/2 pt.

                                      To win 1 unit

                                      WIN Georgia -7 (EVEN)
                                      ___________________________
                                      NCAA Football Regular season and bowl game Bets Through 12/28/2009

                                      54-30-1 (64% +30.55 units)
                                      _____________________
                                      Comment
                                      • BiffTFinancial
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 01-29-09
                                        • 22670

                                        #124
                                        just now saw this, but went large on UGA. felt compelled to after UK 4Q fumble killed a nice hot streak last night. great call. this was a recruiting game for richt, and fortunate turns notwithstanding, turned out to be a sharp call.

                                        any thoughts on tomorrow? i think Wisky/U is coinflip side and o/u, but like UCLA/Temple under a little, and i think i'm the only person who likes Temple +4. i think Temple could win outright, but am talking myself out of it since so few seem to like it with MAC miserable bowl history.
                                        Comment
                                        • mcbaseball10
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-11-09
                                          • 2866

                                          #125
                                          Congrats to you on Georgia also Biff.

                                          I like to look at Coaching matchups as well with these games. Would have to give to the nod to Neuheisel with the extra practice time with the players at UCLA. I will look at those other games more in depth tomorrow and post during the day.
                                          Comment
                                          • mcbaseball10
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-11-09
                                            • 2866

                                            #126
                                            UCLA vs. Temple (@ RFK Stadium in Washington D.C.)

                                            Advantages


                                            Temple

                                            Temple enters the bowl game with one of the most stout rushing defenses (108.8 yards per game allowed) in the country. The strength of the Owls' defense is its front seven -- particularly potential future pros Andre Neblett, a disruptive force at nose tackle, and Adrian Robinson, a sophomore defensive end with 12 sacks this season.

                                            -talented freshman rb Pierce when healthy was putting up some of biggest numbers in college football
                                            . How does he respond to injury to his shoulder? Freshman dealing with injury for first time
                                            -playing close to home in tough weather conditions (which they are used to)
                                            -first bowl appearance in decades going to bring alums. out of the woodwork (treat it like a home game)
                                            -will treat this game like a championship game
                                            -Finished season 9-3 with big wins against NAVY, BUFFALO, and ARMY
                                            (losses to Villanova 1AA champ, Penn State, and Ohio in MAC champ. game)

                                            Disadvantages

                                            -Playing in MAC has not seen team speed like UCLA will bring
                                            -Shoulder injury to Pierce
                                            -MAC Talent level vs. PAC-10 talent level
                                            -QB Chester Stewart could be rattled, if he takes a big shot or two. He will be making just his fifth collegiate start and was clearly rattled in Temple's regular season finale vs. Ohio on Nov. 27 -- completing just seven of his 22 passes for just 92 yards.

                                            Advantages

                                            UCLA

                                            -Team speed is much greater than Temple's. Special teams threats to go the distance at any time during the game
                                            -Redshirt QB Kevin Prince has shown flashes of brilliance this year and flashes of a Freshman. Given an extra month of practice time you would expect him to be more polished
                                            -Coach Neuheisel has been here before. He has been to bowl games and knows how to get the most out of his players with the extra time to do so.

                                            Disadvantages

                                            UCLA

                                            -OL is in shambles with injuries and academic/disciplinary problems. Not a good sign with a Freshman QB that has been rattled during the year
                                            -Traveling cross country where they have had little success in the past
                                            -90% of roster are California boys that have more than likely never played in the cold (see forecast below)

                                            Temps at game time (wind chill) around 18 degrees and falling as night falls.
                                            Winds From NW at 22 mph
                                            gusting to 36 mph

                                            Pick

                                            After reviewing all factors to be considered, I did not know the name of the bowl they are playing in until I now I found that I have broken down the Eaglebankbowl at RFK stadium. With that said, I will take 4.5 points with a Temple team under frosty conditions that should neutralize the team speed of the Bruins. The offensive line questions for the Bruins is another key factor. If Temple can keep pressure on Prince, his receivers will not be able to get down field, limiting the big play potential. Temple must win this game with field position. If UCLA is able to break big plays on special teams, Temple will not be able to hang with the big boys from the PAC-10.

                                            Temple +4.5
                                            Comment
                                            • CappinTerp
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 11-26-09
                                              • 9650

                                              #127
                                              Nice write up, Iam on the under. BOL
                                              Comment
                                              • mcbaseball10
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-11-09
                                                • 2866

                                                #128
                                                Thanks Terp. I am considering a play on the under as well. The over/under on the bowl games have been so unpredictable this year that I am bit reluctant to pull the trigger. Teams seem to get out of their comfort zone late in the games if trailing by a lot (A & M yesterday.) Perhaps a 1st half under might be a play for me to consider.
                                                Comment
                                                • og4667
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 09-17-09
                                                  • 2438

                                                  #129
                                                  nice write up on temple, you bring up a lot of good points.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mcbaseball10
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-11-09
                                                    • 2866

                                                    #130
                                                    Thanks Ogs
                                                    Comment
                                                    • BiffTFinancial
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 01-29-09
                                                      • 22670

                                                      #131
                                                      solid write-up, thanks much. i tend to agree with your points and analysis. i liked this game from the time that pairings were announced, then got somewhat dissuaded due to anti-MAC bowl sentiment (entirely justifiable) and the notion that UCLA will play hard in this spot notwithstanding how bad the PAC 10 looked against Utah and BYU.

                                                      my capping is primarily stats-based, which is less than ideal during bowl season given motivational disparities. without question, Temple's stats blow away UCLA's, and that's after adjusting for SOS (which was 7 points here). even after the 7-point SOS adjustment, my system says Temple is 5 points better than UCLA. in specific, these teams wash in a number of statistical comparisons, but Temple has decided advantages in Rush YPC, Opp Rush YPC, Rush YPG, Opp Rush YPG, and Penalty YPG Diff. in each of those categories, Temple is good (Rush YPC, Rush YPG) or great (Opp Rush YPC, Opp Rush YPG) while UCLA is mediocre (everything but Rush YPG) or putrid (Rush YPG). My stats do not take into account special teams, which definitely favor UCLA.

                                                      while i don't think that UCLA is going to mail it in, i agree that Temple has a motivational advantage if only due the pseudo-home-field effect they will enjoy, plus the long period without a bowl and the weather.

                                                      in the end, i'm going to play Temple +4.5 and the 1H under, both small, instead of Temple +4.5 large as originally planned. i can't go against my system and take UCLA, but i've heard enough pro-UCLA/anti-Temple chatter to decide that maybe this just isn't a game to go large on. or maybe i just lack self-confidence. as for the 1H under, i rarely play half-lines in football [love em in college hoops, though], but this is a solid spot for a 1H under given the weather as you correctly noted above. bol tonight.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • mcbaseball10
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-11-09
                                                        • 2866

                                                        #132
                                                        Well stated BIff. It is nice to see you have factored the SOS into this matchup. I do not have a computer system that I rely on for my plays so it is good to know that you are running the numbers. I am going to place my 1H bet now at under 23 and wait till closer to game time to take Temple + the points.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • mcbaseball10
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 02-11-09
                                                          • 2866

                                                          #133
                                                          To win 1 unit

                                                          Temple +4.5 (-105)
                                                          ----------------------------
                                                          UCLA v. Temple 1H U23 (-125)
                                                          ___________________________
                                                          NCAA Football Regular season and bowl game Bets Through 12/28/2009

                                                          54-30-1 (64% +30.55 units)
                                                          _____________________
                                                          Comment
                                                          • mcbaseball10
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-11-09
                                                            • 2866

                                                            #134
                                                            0-2

                                                            Disappointing losses. Losing Pierce loomed to large.

                                                            Originally posted by mcbaseball10


                                                            To win 1 unit

                                                            LOSS
                                                            Temple +4.5 (-105)
                                                            ---------------------------LOSSUCLA v. Temple 1H U23 (-125)
                                                            ___________________________
                                                            NCAA Football Regular season and bowl game Bets Through 12/28/2009

                                                            54-32-1 (64% +28.25 units)
                                                            _____________________
                                                            Comment
                                                            • BiffTFinancial
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 01-29-09
                                                              • 22670

                                                              #135
                                                              yeah, that sucked. Pierce injury + D-line INT TD + Safety = a lot more bad fortune than the standard game.

                                                              well, as with the Kentucky screwing being followed by a righteous UGA victory, so hopefully will Temple loss get fixed in the Humanitarian Bowl. i cap it at Vandals 32-24. I like Idaho +1 a lot and am thinking about the under 68.5. this is one of those games where everyone expects a ton of points (ala A&M/UGA) and the defenses come out sharp because of all of the work they put in to avoid looking terrible in the expected shoot-out. it's supposed to be around freezing with snow, and winning this game would be a huge way for Idaho to cap the season. they won't be looking to sling it around in the second half if they have the lead and conditions are bad. BGSU allows 5.3 YPC [in the MAC].

                                                              we tend to characterize our units differently. i play from 1-5 units (-110). i'm playing Idaho +1 at 5 units and thinking that the under 68.5 is worth 2-3 units. any thoughts on the total?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • mcbaseball10
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 02-11-09
                                                                • 2866

                                                                #136
                                                                Will look at those games shortly biff.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • mcbaseball10
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-11-09
                                                                  • 2866

                                                                  #137
                                                                  Biff, after looking at the numbers I really can not see an advantage on either side of this game. I watched BG play a few times this year and they were able to put quick scores on the board. Idaho is very capable of giving up 35-45 points to BG regardless of the conditions. On the flip side, BG scores so quickly at times that their defense is on the field a lot. They are not that strong a defensive unit to begin with. They are capable of giving up the same amount of points. I am going to sit this one out and anticipate the high scoring that has been advertised.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • BiffTFinancial
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 01-29-09
                                                                    • 22670

                                                                    #138
                                                                    thanks for your thoughts, mcbaseball. over the course of last night and today, i've managed to talk myself out of the under (or at most, i'll play it small).

                                                                    in the games tomorrow/friday, i like, in no particular order, Air Force, Stanford, Stanford/Oklahoma under, Navy, Navy/Missou over, Iowa State.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • mcbaseball10
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 02-11-09
                                                                      • 2866

                                                                      #139
                                                                      Originally posted by mcbaseball10
                                                                      Biff, after looking at the numbers I really can not see an advantage on either side of this game. I watched BG play a few times this year and they were able to put quick scores on the board. Idaho is very capable of giving up 35-45 points to BG regardless of the conditions. On the flip side, BG scores so quickly at times that their defense is on the field a lot. They are not that strong a defensive unit to begin with. They are capable of giving up the same amount of points. I am going to sit this one out and anticipate the high scoring that has been advertised.
                                                                      What a great game to watch without having any money on either side or totals. What did you end up betting biff?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • BiffTFinancial
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 01-29-09
                                                                        • 22670

                                                                        #140
                                                                        I just ended up betting Idaho +1 large and laid off the total entirely (then Nebraska small instead). And let me tell you, as fun as it would've been without a dog in the fight, it was pretty fun having the Vandals. Rob Akey has my undying respect for going for two. I don't think Idaho would've fared well in OT.

                                                                        You were absolutely correct that there wasn't a strong advantage to either side [perhaps for the over, but that was hardly a lock] - good call. I'll take the good fortune here as the universe making up for the unlucky Kentucky loss, but all things considered, this game was a proper no-play.
                                                                        Comment
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