Thanks biff, playing this many games I expect my % to decrease this week. But the + units is the important part. Glad to see you on those picks as well. Hope Cincy isn't in position for a letdown. They are too good of a team against a weak 'Cuse team.
-
Comment -
absolutely. i hear you on the concern for a Cincy letdown. that's the only CFB fave i'm playing this week, and i hate giving that many points, but there's a very real motivational edge in play with Cincy. the entire Bearcat fanbase and the city are buying into the BCS-is-rigged/lack-of-respect angle. when i read this piece from the Cincy Enquirer this week [it was quoted elsewhere, i think maybe by Bruce Feldman], i decided not to let giving the points bother me. the team feeling actively disrespected should reduce risk of letdown, not to mention Cuse's obvious shortcomings [and i apologize for long post from annoying sportswriter in your picks thread, but figured this was better than just posting link]:
Cincy Enq, Paul Daugherty, 10.27.09
UC wins by 31 and loses three spots in the BCS computer rankings. The Bearcats smack Louisville with a QB who’d never started a college game. The computer says UC had a lousy week.
That’s because Louisville is bad and BYU is good and TCU won at BYU and Iowa hasn’t lost and Boise State got shafted two years ago and Southern Cal has fabulous cheerleaders. Or some damned thing.
The rankings account for schedule strength, conference strength, coaches voting, global warming, black helicopters and things that go bump in the night. To the BCS computers, if Florida beats Georgia in the parking lot of a Gainesville Burger King Saturday, it means less than if the Gators had done the winning out behind Weaver D’s Restaurant in Athens. Even if REM is eating there.
The Bearcats are taking this well. Brian Kelly is absolutely rational about it. Kelly says all the right things, which for Kelly is highly unusual: We’re in the mix, he says. We have some big games coming up. Nobody’s great. Our players don’t think about it. Let’s let it play out.
“It’s great the university is getting that recognition,’’ the coach allows. “I hope our admissions (are) up.’’
Fabulous. Let’s hear it for more applications.Comment -
Sat 10/31 results
Had my first losing week of the season and it wasn't nearly as bad as I expected. A few late additions kept me in the ballgame and just a 1/2 unit in the red. To those of you who tailed (if anybody), I apologize for a lackluster performance. Honestly felt guilty all night about putting out a bad card. Weird how it bothers you, but I gave some of my picks to my friends too. Can't imagine how Lang must feel, but he does get paid for his picks so I'm sure that helps. Anyways, back to the drawing board for next week and hope to return to the winning side again.
Saturday Results
4-5 -.5 units
Tuesday Result
1-0 +1 unit
______________________
NCAA Football Regular season Bets Through 10/31/2009
37-19 (66% +25.6 units)
_____________________Comment -
Just now read your post Biff, "P-Doc" can be quite annoying but no worries. The Bearcats "were who we thought they were!" As for some other teams this week, they were as well..
Made a big mistake laying money on Toledo two weeks in a row chasing a bet on a team that I clearly read as being better than they really were. Toledo folded up shop after last week's loss and let a winless team embarrass them.
Virginia is still Virginia regardless of "homefield" advantage. Groh must go.
Miami is struggling with injuries. The loss of Spence loomed large in this non-cover against a weak Wake team
Let's not talk about Indiana, "why would I want to buy a 1/2 point to make it +18"
Comment -
Writeups condensed this weekbecause A) it takes a lot of time B) I didn't do very well last week with my picks C) haven't really received much feedback so I am assuming nobody really reading anyways. So I will stick to documenting my plays and hopefully provide some more winners this week.
Thursday night play
To win 2 units
306) Temple -11½
(307) Virginia Tech -7
Teased 6.0 points
______________________
NCAA Football Regular season Bets Through 10/31/2009
37-19 (66% +25.6 units)
_____________________Comment -
The Bearcats and Notre Dame have been the two most consistent teams this season, albeit for opposite reasons.
Toledo has been very difficult to figure out this year, and UVA is just abysmal. Any I-A team that loses at home to William & Mary doesn't have much of a homefield advantage.
You're absolutely correct re: Miami's defensive injuries. Spence's is huge, but injuries to Futch and Moncur have also been pretty big. On Rivals Radio this morning, they had some talking head in to discuss Miami [missed part so didn't catch full name], and he revealed that one of the reasons that the Canes were so sluggish last week was that they were exhausted, in part because Randy Shannon had them getting up at 5 am to practice. Apparently, the "effort" against the Deacs convinced Shannon to back off, so they're having a light practice week and stressing rest and sleep. I don't know if that's enough to convince me that they'll name their number against UVA this week, but I'm expecting a much better effort.
Wegher's final TD to finish off Indiana was the one moment on Saturday when I lost my temper. I quick-kicked a football against the basement wall and it almost hit my 14-year-old dog all the way on the other side of the room. Felt pretty crappy about it. I can only hope that Bill Lynch felt as bad.Comment -
Good info Biff. I live in Miami and they have been talking about those 5 AM practices since before the season started. At some point you have to lay off the pedal and let your guys heal.
Please keep me updated with any info on games you have a good feeling about. I am always looking for somebody to talk about games with. Glad your dog survived your rant as they become very fragile at that age!
Here are my leans for this weekend games. I have yet to make any bets so any input is appreciated
Florida State+9.5
UNLV -1
Baylor +14.5
Nevada -14
Fresno St. -8Comment -
Updated Thursday night plays
To win 2 units
306) Temple -11½
(307) Virginia Tech -7
Teased 6.0 points
To win 1 unit
(307) Virginia Tech vs. (308) East Carolina Under 52
------------------------------------------------
(305) Miami Ohio vs. (306) Temple Under 45
_____________________
NCAA Football Regular season Bets Through 11/4/2009
37-19 (66% +25.6 units)
_____________________Comment -
Small writeup:
I expect Temple to control the game tonight. I expect a 28-7 type game where Temple grinds it out on the ground with Pierce. He is a little banged up so I don't think he will be in the game late when its in blowout mode. This bodes well for the under.
Miami (OH) is banged up as a team and lack enough depth to withstand an early deficit to Temple.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
East Carolina will look to keep the ball out of Taylor's hands tonight. They will look to grind the clock to stay in a low scoring battle. I see Tech winning this one 28-14.
We shall see how both games play outComment -
1-2 -2.2 units Thursday
Temple defense was terrible late tonight, I underestimated the fatigue factor for them coming off its battle with Navy on Saturday.
____________________
NCAA Football Regular season Bets Through 11/5/2009
38-21 (64% +23.4 units)
_____________________Last edited by mcbaseball10; 11-06-09, 01:46 AM.Comment -
Saturday plays
To win 1 unit
(381) Florida State +10 (-120)
--------------------------------
(373) Oregon -7
--------------------------------
(363) Fresno State -8
-------------------------------
(349) Central Florida +34½
__________________________
NCAA Football Regular season Bets Through 11/5/2009
38-21 (64% +23.4 units)
_____________________Comment -
To win 1 unit
Navy vs. Notre Dame Under 56 (-115)Comment -
Add
To win 1 unit
Tulsa +2
Crazy line movement. Probably better off not betting this one, but I will follow the big money players and see what happens.Comment -
Notes for this weekend
Monitor line movement on these games
**Illinois
Penn State
Mississippi
SMU
2**Cal
1.5*Missouri
Hawaii
TroyComment -
Plays so far for Saturday
To win 1 unit
(120) Illinois -5
----------------------
(146) Mississippi -4½
----------------------
(160) SMU -8
----------------------
(169) Missouri Pick
----------------------
Nebraska -4 (-105)
__________________________
NCAA Football Regular season Bets Through 11/10/2009
42-23 (65% +25.1 units)
_____________________Comment -
Added play
To win 1 unit
Central Florida +5Comment -
Notes for tonight
-Cincinnati has won 10 consecutive games at Nippert Stadium and 15 straight regular-season games dating back to last season.
-UC ranks third in the nation in turnover margin. Cincinnati leads the nation in tackles for loss and is third in sacks.
Healthy?-Noel Devine ranks 13th nationally with more than 112 rushing yards per game but is expected to play tonight. Will he be in the game late if Cincy is blowing them out? I doubt it.
Cincinnati's Overall Defense 16thComment -
Friday PlayTo win 1 unit
Teased 6.0 points
(113) Temple Pick(116) Cincinnati -4
_________________________
NCAA Football Regular season Bets Through 11/12/2009
42-23 (65% +25.1 units)
_____________________Comment -
Took last week off, looking at some plays for this weekend. Will spend more time evaluating tomorrow.
Watch these lines to see how they move
Point Spread
Louisville +3
Central Michigan -13
Auburn +10 (-105)
Tulsa -17 (EVEN)
___________________________
NCAA Football Regular season Bets Through 11/24/2009
46-26 (64% +25.8 units)
_____________________Comment -
To win 1 unit
(Friday)
Central Michigan -13½
-----------------------------
Tulsa -17 (-105)
Saturday
To win 2 units
Florida -24½ (-105)
__________________________
NCAA Football Regular season Bets Through 11/26/2009
46-26 (64% +25.8 units)
_____________________Comment -
Add
To win 1 unit
Wyoming +3 (-125)Comment -
Notes/leans for College football this week
West Virgina @ Rutgers line movement is screaming for attention Opened +2.5 now -1.5. Wait until close to game time if you want to bet on Rutgers. Its hard to think about putting money on Rutgers, but there has to be a reason why they are favored here.
Let down game for WVU?
Monitor this game until Saturday.
Bet this game on Rutgers getting points around gametime.
Oregon State @ Oregon
1/2 point RLM so far in this game. Play is on Oregon.
May be able to get this game at less than 10 if you wait..I really like this play but don't think its mandatory to bet it right now
Cincy @ Pitt
Just like everybody else I was thinking Cincy -6 to -7 would be the line.
Cincy has not played on the road since the end of October. Big East title on the line. Do they step up or have a let down. Looking for reasons not to bet Cincy.Comment -
1 unit bet
Oregon -10 (+105)
Line hasn't dropped yet, but I will give up 1/2 pt. for a +105. Oregon State will not be able to keep up with the potent offensive attack of Oregon. I really don't care about paybacks or revenge factor. That is all thrown out the window after the first play.
Taking my chances with Oregon at home with much more talent. Initial small reverse line movement on this also factored into decision.
____________________________
NCAA Football Regular season Bets Through 12/2/2009
49-27 (64% +28.75 units)
_____________________Comment -
Going out of town for weekend so here are my picks
Rutgers -1.5
Cincy -2Comment -
Posting from Savannah GA, rainy and cold here. At least I won't have to be out taking in the sights and miss football
Great day for football. Girl saying I am spending too much time on computer on vaca. So short and sweet.
Florida 'Bama over 41Comment -
MTSU +3.5
____________________________
NCAA Football Regular season Bets Through 12/19/2009
50-30 (63% +26.55 units)
_____________________Comment -
[COLOR=#000000! important]Followed MTSU from the Maryland win throughout rest of season. They made me some good money. Dasher is a dual threat QB that has put up some impressive stats on the year. Their defense continued to improve throughout the season. The loss against Miss. was in part because of players being out for disciplinary reasons, so that lopsided defeat was not a true indicator of their talent.
Have not seen Southern Miss. play but from the research I have done, it seems like a pretty even matchup. I would take the points in this situation.[/COLOR]Comment -
with you on MTSU. i like bowl dogs who enter on a hot streak. MTSU has won last 6 ATS. So Miss is decent, but not special. points look good here.Comment -
In the blistery Ohio cold for the week, first chance I've had to post. Picks for other bowl games later. Off to a good start with Midd. Tenn. very impressive victory. Good call biff.
____________________________
NCAA Football Regular season Bets Through 12/19/2009
51-30 (63% +27.55 units)
_____________________Comment -
To win 1 unit
SMU +13 (-120)
____________________________
NCAA Football Regular season Bets Through 12/23/2009
51-30 (63% +27.55 units)
_____________________Comment
1-3 for weekend -2.2 units