Mcbaseball NCAA Football Season thread

[mcbaseball10]

Very nice night for you then biff. Have to give the guy credit for going for 2. BG secondary looked lost.
Quite the mismatch in the Nebraska and Arizona game. Still doesn't change my opinion about Texas and Alabama. Not sure you can draw conclusions based off Nebraska's performance.

[BiffTFinancial]

Very nice night for you then biff. Have to give the guy credit for going for 2. BG secondary looked lost.
Quite the mismatch in the Nebraska and Arizona game. Still doesn't change my opinion about Texas and Alabama. Not sure you can draw conclusions based off Nebraska's performance.

Completely agree re: Texas/Bama. I still like Bama by at least a TD. Nebraska's defense turned into a brick wall in since that bad patch against Texas Tech and Iowa State, and Arizona looked miserable on the road all season and then last night (as an aside, after the U and AZ, the next team that comes out in all-white unis, i'm fading immediately before kickoff). If anything, Saban has almost a month to dissect how UNL slowed Texas down so much. Until demonstrated otherwise, the SEC is still the big bully during bowl season (notwithstanding the fact that I think that LSU and S Carolina lose).

[mcbaseball10]

(copy and paste of current pending games)

To win 1 unit

WINAir Force +4½
-------------------
Connecticut +4½
-------------------
Alabama -4½ (-105)

___________________________
NCAA Football Regular season and bowl game Bets Through 12/30/2009

55-32-1 (64% +29.25 units)
_____________________

[mcbaseball10]

thanks for your thoughts, mcbaseball. over the course of last night and today, i've managed to talk myself out of the under (or at most, i'll play it small). in the games tomorrow/friday, i like, in no particular order, Air Force, Stanford, Stanford/Oklahoma under, Navy, Navy/Missou over, Iowa State.

How you end up yesterday biff? Air Force was nasty on defense and I loved it.
Haven't booked anything today. Early leans on Penn State, Ohio State, West Virginia and Florida but haven't delved into the matchups enough to have a clear outlook. Any of these games stick out to you?

Happy New Year!

[BiffTFinancial]

How you end up yesterday biff? Air Force was nasty on defense and I loved it.
Haven't booked anything today. Early leans on Penn State, Ohio State, West Virginia and Florida but haven't delved into the matchups enough to have a clear outlook. Any of these games stick out to you?

Happy New Year!

same to you. Air Force was a great call - you were on that one for awhile. had good day yesterday, but fact that i went longer on Stanford under, Navy over than the side gave some back. 4-2, both losses the over/unders, 4-0 ATS. outsmarted myself again.

today, i went 3* on NU, 4* on NU/AUB over, 5* on Penn State, 3* on WVU, 3* on WVU over thusfar, so good start. hope that you played Penn State, knock on wood. still have 3* Cincy/Florida over. i'm an Ohio State fan/apologist, so i'm biased in that one, but i'm taking OSY +4 and the under, both 3*. i don't have a take on the Cincy/Florida spread. i think that's almost impossible to cap due to motivational issues. if i do anything, i'll go 1* or 2* on Cincy right before kickoff if Rose Bowl is going my way. the over is a much better angle, i think, and i'd rather roll winnings to that than ATS (assuming winnings).

tomorrow, i agree with you on UConn. I also like USF, NIU/USF over, and love Ole Miss and Arkansas. have a strong lean on Texas Tech/Sparty under, but that game scares me same as Cincy/Florida.

[BiffTFinancial]

mcb, what do you think about today?

yesterday was another good one, so probably due for a market correction. won't take long to find out. today, i'm on 3* USF, 4* NIU/USF over, 5* UConn, 5* Ole Miss, 5* Arkansas. will probably stay away from Alamo under unless line movement looks good or having a good day.

from here, i'm thinking TCU, Iowa/GT under, Bama.

[mcbaseball10]

My bad biff, just now got on and missed the USF line.

[mcbaseball10]

Just got engaged New Year's Eve so I have been a bit distracted and haven't put the necessary time into capping the games like I normally would.

[Chi_archie]

congrats on the engagement

[mcbaseball10]

Thanks Chi!

[BiffTFinancial]

Hey, big congrats! That's fantastic.

If you failed to get in on USF and the over, looks as if you missed nothing anyway. I would normally consider the 2H over here, but I don't think there's anyway I go against the NIU sack machine and Daniels looks like crap.

[mcbaseball10]

Thanks Biff, line movement has me going against your Arkansas and putting a wager on East Carolina. UCONN defense needs to hold tough in 2nd half. They have had a hard time holding onto leads all year in the 2nd half.

Added
To win 1 unit

East Carolina +7½ (-115)

--------------------------------------------
(Other pending bets)

Connecticut +4½
-------------------
Alabama -4½ (-105)

___________________________
NCAA Football Regular season and bowl game Bets Through 1/01/2010

55-32-1 (64% +29.25 units)
_____________________

[BiffTFinancial]

UConn was a proper winner. Like backing a team that tackles as well as they do when they're getting points. The cold weather really worked to their advantage, and Edsall's a good coach.

Any thought on Alamo? I have small play on the under and i like Sparty, both because of loss of Leach as playcaller. It killed Cincy last night. Then again, that's probably a game best left alone.

[mcbaseball10]

UConn was a proper winner. Like backing a team that tackles as well as they do when they're getting points. The cold weather really worked to their advantage, and Edsall's a good coach. Any thought on Alamo? I have small play on the under and i like Sparty, both because of loss of Leach as playcaller. It killed Cincy last night. Then again, that's probably a game best left alone.

UCONN held strong, good win. Way too many different variables in the game tonight so I am going to pass on that game. If ECU can avoid a TD and 2-pt conversion loss here in OT, I had a pretty good day.

[mcbaseball10]

Thanks Biff, line movement has me going against your Arkansas and putting a wager on East Carolina. UCONN defense needs to hold tough in 2nd half. They have had a hard time holding onto leads all year in the 2nd half.

Added
To win 1 unit

Win East Carolina +7½ (-115)

Win Connecticut +4½
-------------------
Alabama -4½ (-105)

___________________________
NCAA Football Regular season and bowl game Bets Through 1/01/2010

57-32-1 (64% +31.25 units)
_____________________

[BiffTFinancial]

Nice work Saturday. I like TCU tonight, especially now that line is down to 7, though i still have to figure out how much. I've watched a lot of TCU this season and don't think that Boise St is on their level (in fact, the only teams i'd consider favored over TCU are Bama, UF, Texas). Kinda like Cincy/UF, Boise's undefeated status is keeping this spread lower than it should be. TCU will make their statement about the BCS system on the field and stake their claim to the #2 spot in the final rankings.

[mcbaseball10]

Hey Biff, I like TCU as well but will not bet on it because of the line movement. I have not seen them play all year and have heard nothing but great things about them. But why has the line dropped from 9 to 7? I do not like to go against movement like this. I try to be very picky with my plays and avoid going against major movement. GL with your play, I will be pulling for TCU.

[mcbaseball10]

Added play

To win 1 unit

(264) Georgia Tech -5
___________________________
NCAA Football Regular season and bowl game Bets Through 1/03/2010

57-32-1 (64% +31.25 units)
_____________________

[BiffTFinancial]

Hey Biff, I like TCU as well but will not bet on it because of the line movement. I have not seen them play all year and have heard nothing but great things about them. But why has the line dropped from 9 to 7? I do not like to go against movement like this. I try to be very picky with my plays and avoid going against major movement. GL with your play, I will be pulling for TCU.

You make a good point. I certainly don't like going contra the movement, and that's why i didn't play it huge, but my system says TCU is 11+ points better. I've also watched both TCU and Boise a lot this season, and TCU was the one team that I think could give Bama, Florida or Texas a decent game (i think that, if they played those teams 10 times, TCU would win 30-40%). i'm big on stats, and TCU's defense consistently hits some key marks (under 3 YPC rush, 5.5 YPA pass, 4 YPP overall), and has a solid offense. They also played well against the better teams on their schedule. In a way, i'm more invested because a TCU blow-out somewhat validates the methodology.

I'm staying away from GT/IOWA ATS, but I can definitely see why you'd back the Paul Johnsons here. I think GT's 7-8 points better than Iowa, but I've watched way too many Iowa games this season, and they play every opponent pretty close. Their defense is good and Stanzi is back, and this year's team had so many quirky plays and turns of fortune (after the Indiana game, i swore off fading Iowa for the rest of the year). The flipside though is that GT is definitely more talented on offense and Stanzi is a 4 turnover game waiting to happen. I like the under pretty well, so i may have to stick with that.

[mcbaseball10]

If your numbers agree with what you have seen from both teams, then I can see why you are going with TCU. Looks like bets are pretty much 50/50.

Iowa surprised me in many of their games this year, but think they will struggle against Dwyer and the Triple option. Stanzi is usually good for a couple of turnovers and with field position, Tech should be able to capitalize.

[mcbaseball10]

Line still at 5 in some places. Up to 6 at others. Going to just stick with the one unit play on Tech -5

Added play

To win 1 unit

(264) Georgia Tech -5

Iowa surprised me in many of their games this year, but think they will struggle against Dwyer and the Triple option. Stanzi is usually good for a couple of turnovers and with field position, Tech should be able to capitalize.
___________________________
NCAA Football Regular season and bowl game Bets Through 1/03/2010

57-32-1 (64% +31.25 units)
_____________________

[BiffTFinancial]

BOL with the Jackets. Here's to GT and the under. You're right about Stanzi's turnover issues.

[mcbaseball10]

Added play

To win 1 unit

LOSS(264) Georgia Tech -5

___________________________
NCAA Football Regular season and bowl game Bets Through 1/03/2010

57-33-1 (64% +30.15 units)
_____________________

[mcbaseball10]

Placed the bet a few weeks ago on Alabama. Don't like the line movement on it so I will keep it where it is.

Added
To win 1 unit

(Other pending bets)

Alabama -4½ (-105)

___________________________
NCAA Football Regular season and bowl game Bets Through 1/06/2010

55-32-1 (64% +29.25 units)
_____________________

[BiffTFinancial]

Placed the bet a few weeks ago on Alabama. Don't like the line movement on it so I will keep it where it is.

mcb, completely agree. the line movement is fishy enough to keep me from getting too heavy on it. like your prop wager in your other thread (neither team score 3 times in a row), will probably just put a little bit on that and watch as-is. ROLL TIDE.

[mcbaseball10]

Glad to see we are together on those tonight biff!

[mcbaseball10]

WIN Alabama -4½ (-105)

___________________________
Final NCAA Football Regular season and bowl game Record

58-33-1 (64% +31.25 units)
_____________________

[mcbaseball10]

Mcbaseball10 2009-2010 College Football Final Record (Posted Plays)

Bowl games

8-3-1 73%

Regular season

50-30 63%

Up 31.25 units (which includes subtracting out all juice paid so -110 loser would be -1.1 from profit)

My first complete season capping College Football on SBR Forum was an extremely profitable one. Amazing that I went the entire season without making a claim of a and was able to be successful. Biff, thanks for your input and I will now shift my attention to college basketball. Haven't put much time into it yet, so have some catching up to do.