Pags' Plays 9/5

**bearmz** · 09-03-09, 01:27 AM

GL this year, pags. Oh hell you don't need it...continued success. The only game that surprised me was SDST. Just didn't see that one coming. I think I'm gonna keep my research on the "Outer Limit" games and let you and the other big dogs here hit the bigger boys.

**pags11** · 09-03-09, 01:29 AM

bearmz,

my long lost friend...thank you very much...you always do a great job researching things and providing me excellent info., I really appreciate it...BOL to you this season...will have more for you on the SDSU game tomorrow evening...

**JimmyJet** · 09-03-09, 08:59 AM

Does the clearance by the NCAA on those two players for Alabama change your read on that game?

**bkny2cnc** · 09-03-09, 09:05 AM

good luck pags ,glad to see you're ready

**pags11** · 09-03-09, 02:12 PM

jimmyjet,

I handicapped the game as both players were playing, so no it doesn't change my view...I don't recommend playing the game under 6 though...

bkny2cnc,

you know it brother, thank you...BOL to you this season...

**U of T** · 09-03-09, 02:23 PM

Pags----I am new, but there seems to be quite a "buzz" about your skills. I AM IN!

But, I will only get the customary -110 juice on almost all my plays. This will have such a great affect on your profit and mine.
Suggestions---LOL
I looked for the recap of last year, but couldn't find it----I wish that I knew the Wins-Losses record, stripped of units and juice.

Thanks,
Pick a BUNCH of winners,
U of T

**Jimmydafreak** · 09-03-09, 02:44 PM

Football season is upon us my friend!!!

**Husker04** · 09-03-09, 02:58 PM

Pags - looking for your writeups as i think you have great insight on your games. i know you are going to post them sometime today. thanks in advance.

**sportsguy04** · 09-03-09, 03:21 PM

Can any one or Pags please post all of his plays in one post so we dont have to go back and forth from page to page?

Best of luck this season Pags for I always follow ya sir.

**pags11** · 09-03-09, 03:23 PM

U of T,

thank you for posting sir, I appreciate the kind words...my suggestion to you would be to open up an account at matchbook.com...they are A rated by SBR and are a terrific book/ exchange...GL to you this week...

Jimmydafreak,

yes it is my friend...

Husker04,

I'll have them up late tonight after the Oregon/ Boise game...

**VenomLugz** · 09-03-09, 03:24 PM

it's time for College Football!!

**pags11** · 09-03-09, 03:39 PM

venom,

you know it!...

**obamaismyuncle** · 09-03-09, 03:55 PM

pags11, you sound like royalty on this forum, and a higly respected college football capper. I wasn't here last year, just curious how many units were you up at the end of last year on college f'ball? I consider myself to know alot about both college and pro football, but may just tail your picks this first week.

**jml7z2** · 09-03-09, 04:01 PM

I copied all his plays into one post to make it easier to find them. Pags is there any way you could give us some insight on if you would still bet these with the current spreads? I'll post the current ones from my book below your picks, thanks for doing this.

San Diego State +20 (+102) for .5 units
Notre Dame -14 (+103) for .5 units
Louisiana Tech +12 (+101) for .5 unit
Virginia Tech +7 (-105) for .5 unit
Weeknight Play: Oregon +5 (+100) for .25 unit
Georgia +6 (-101) for .5 unit
BYU +21.5 (+105) for .5 unit
LSU -17 (-102) for .5 unit

Current spreads:
San Diego St. +19.5
Notre Dame -14.5
Louisiana Tech +13.5
Virginia Tech +6.5
Oregon +3.5
Georgia N/A
BYU +22.5
LSU -18

**jml7z2** · 09-03-09, 04:02 PM

deleted

**darkenergy** · 09-03-09, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by jml7z2

I copied all his plays into one post to make it easier to find them. Pags is there any way you could give us some insight on if you would still bet these with the current spreads? I'll post the current ones from my book below your picks, thanks for doing this.

San Diego State +20 (+102) for .5 units
Notre Dame -14 (+103) for .5 units
Louisiana Tech +12 (+101) for .5 unit
Virginia Tech +7 (-105) for .5 unit
Weeknight Play: Oregon +5 (+100) for .25 unit
Georgia +6 (-101) for .5 unit
BYU +21.5 (+105) for .5 unit
LSU -17 (-102) for .5 unit

Current spreads:
San Diego St. +19.5
Notre Dame -14.5
Louisiana Tech +13.5
Virginia Tech +6.5
Oregon +3.5
Georgia N/A
BYU +22.5
LSU -18

Thank you for doing this JM7z2

**clowncar** · 09-03-09, 04:10 PM

Heading out the door for some wings , beer and football. Wanted to wish you luck tonight with the quack quacks.

The Countdown is over buddy.

**pags11** · 09-03-09, 04:13 PM

obamaismyuncle,

thank you...you can look up "Pags' Plays" in the search function and look at my thread from the final week last year...at the end of the thread it has my record and the amount of units I was up...GL to you this week...

jml7z2,

I would personally not play Oregon or Georgia at the current numbers...as long as you can get 6 on Va. Tech I would still play it and yes to all of the others...my suggestion to you and anyone else is to check my thread earlier in the week...

clowncar,

enjoy your evening brother...appreciate your time in preparing for the season...yes, the season is upon us and it feels good...

**Cougar Bait** · 09-03-09, 04:33 PM

GL tonight Pags, you know I'll be on the Ducks with ya and so glad the wait is over...one of these days I'll send you some crock pot recipes...if you're a pork loving man that is...

**icemantbi** · 09-03-09, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by pags11

Oregon +5

At first glance many people will look at this game and see that Boise State is at home laying what they consider to be a small number and on their home record the past decade they will take Boise State. I don't blame those people who do that, I have a tremendous amount or respect for Chris Peterson and the Boise State program. That being said, I can't ignore the fact that in the second half of the season last year Oregon was playing like a top ten team, particularly in their bowl game vs. an extremely talented (and well coached) Oklahoma State team. This game comes down to RB Blount and QB Masoli (40 TDs total between these two players) vs. a new front seven for Boise State. Both players for Oregon are as talented at their respective positions as any players in the country. I can see Oregon setting up a lot of 3rd and 2 and 3rd and 3 situations and with these two players running the zone read, combined with Masoli's ability to throw on the run, I think they can play ball control and as the game gets into the fourth quarter they will be able to wear Boise State's defense down. Oregon's defense will be tested by QB Moore and Boise does have a pair of talented RB's in Avery and Harper, but they lose their leader Ian Johnson (13 TD's last year), who had a real nose for the goal line. Also Boise loses four of their top 6 receivers from last year, which will put more pressure on their running game. It is going to be a game where you are going to have to hold onto your seat if you have the Oregon side, but I'll side with Oregon and the points in this one.

Love the write up as always Pags! Line movement is in your favor too, moved down to 3.5, glad I jumped on it when it was 5.

I don't know if you are a fan of teasers, but decided to throw in Oregon +11, NC State +3 for .25 units too.. I do like NC State tonight, and taking them at +3 with Oregon +11 (honestly I cannot see how that half of the teaser will lose, Oregon definitely won't lose by double digits) just makes sense.

Can't wait to make some money!

**BeatTheJerk** · 09-03-09, 04:46 PM

This year I'm not gonna hi-jack Pags thread and try and mock him like I did last year. You live and learn and I learned last year that this guy is a solid Coll Foots handicapper and a 1st class guy overall. GL this year I will be following and winning with you !

**pags11** · 09-03-09, 04:59 PM

Cougar Bait,

yes, season is finally here...I like good food and good recipes, that would be much appreciated...

icemantbi,

good to hear you grabbed a good number on Oregon...not a big fan of teasers but GL...

BeatTheJerk,

welcome aboard man...

**twentyonekid** · 09-03-09, 09:13 PM

lets get this thing rollin,..gl pags

**pags11** · 09-04-09, 12:39 AM

congrats to all Boise State backers...

twentyonekid,

sounds like a plan to me...BOL to you this season...

will post my write-up here in about an hour and a half or so...

**icemantbi** · 09-04-09, 12:51 AM

Only a small loss on Oregon.. boy they were terrible.. and Blount, what a prick.. he'll be suspended for sure.

Saturday we make it rain!

**jholl** · 09-04-09, 12:53 AM

a loss is a loss 0-1 , at least we know you got it out of the way im sure you will go 7-0 sat

**icemantbi** · 09-04-09, 01:04 AM

Originally posted by jholl

a loss is a loss 0-1 , at least we know you got it out of the way im sure you will go 7-0 sat

jholl, one thing I'm doing this year, as well as playing Pags plays straight up is to put a couple bucks and parlay all his picks together.. I think he had a couple of perfect weeks last year... that pays absolutely HUGE when it hits.. and I'm sure it will hit at least once this year.. Pags is that good.

**VenomLugz** · 09-04-09, 01:59 AM

Oregon are suck! Coach Suck and QB suck!

**Skanless1** · 09-04-09, 02:07 AM

huh?

Originally posted by VenomLugz

Oregon are suck! Coach Suck and QB suck!

"Oregon are suck!" WTF does that mean?
though i agree that OR really embarassed themselves tonight, i think you might have looked even stupider w/this comment, if that's possible.

pags: got that loss out of the way; no way anyone could have foreseen OR playing that bad (actually, their D wasn't all that bad at all, but Offense was a joke).

**pags11** · 09-04-09, 03:55 AM

San Diego State +20

SDSU comes into this game with a new lease on life. I watched them play several times last year and thought they had some talent on both sides of the football but unfortunately Chuck Long didn’t utilize them well. I don’t think I am out of line in saying this is the most dramatic turnaround in terms of coaching staff personnel upgrade in the entire country. Brady Hoke did a terrific job at Ball State the last seven years, turning around their program. He made three very good additions to his coaching staff when he added former New Mexico head coach, Rocky Long, as his defensive coordinator. With all due respect to Long, I thought he was an excellent defensive coordinator and a slightly above average coach. He has spent all summer teaching the SDSU defensive unit how to tackle, which they will definitely need to do this week. I always was puzzled as to why Tommy Tubberville let Al Borges go, but Hoke was smart enough to pick up one of the better offensive coordinators in the country this year after Borges took last year off. Lastly, QB coach Brian Sipe, who’s as good as they come at the college level when it comes to QB coaches, has worked with SDSU QB Ryan Lindley all summer.

Now you might say that these coaches can’t take the field for SDSU and play this weekend and you are right about that. What I believe has happened at SDSU though, is there is a new attitude to the entire football program, which is a direct result of what these coaches have been preaching to their players all summer. Mindset, discipline and preparation are huge determining factors to success in college football and I anticipate SDSU being ready to play on Saturday. I think SDSU catches UCLA in a good situational spot with UCLA having to play at Tennessee next week.

Offensively, SDSU will face a talented, but young, UCLA defense. I do believe that SDSU can have success moving the football. QB Ryan Lindley (56.7% comp., 16 TD/ 9 INT ’08) has excellent pocket presence and delivers the football accurately. He brings back five of his top six pass catchers from last season, including WR Vincent Brown (64 rec., 9.9 ypr., 5 TD) and WR Roberto Wallace (31 rec., 13.1 ypr., 1 TD). RB Brandon Sullivan (3.9 ypc., 205 yds., 1 TD) will be the feature back for SDSU this weekend, although I’ve read Hoke has three talented freshmen that he will work into the offensive game plan. It is worth noting that last I checked, RB Atiyyah Henderson is highly doubtful for this game.

Defensively I believe SDSU is going to have some success in slowing the UCLA offense down, particularly because of injuries to the UCLA offensive line, injuries to the RB corp., as well as QB Prince will be making his first college start. UCLA lost their best offensive player from last year, Kahill Bell (437 yds., 7 TD). UCLA does possess two talented WR's in Taylor Embree and Terrance Austin, but the two only combined for one touchdown catch last year (again an indication of UCLA’s quarterback woes).

I expect an ugly game, one in which SDSU will come out with more motivation than UCLA. SDSU will try to hang around into the second half and although I do expect their defense to give up yardage, my hopes are that they can get some stops and force some turnovers to keep the game relatively low scoring. I’ll take my chances with SDSU and the points in this one.

Notre Dame -14

Most of you are aware that each year I try to improve my handicapping skills. One of the things I have really concentrated on in the last 12-18 months is following the high school recruiting scene and paying closer attention to the recruiting classes of respective college football programs. I have watched Notre Dame stockpile talent for the last four years and I saw a glimmer of that talent come out in their bowl game vs. Hawaii. I also believe that Charlie Weiss and crew are highly motivated this year to silence their critics and they will not take this game against Nevada lightly.

Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen (60.9% comp., 25 TD/ 19 INT) has spent the last two seasons learning the hard knocks of what it takes to be a good QB at a major college football program. I believe that he is starting to come into his own. He’s always had a big arm, but he has worked on his footwork and has also improved upon his accuracy. It helps that he now has a more stable offensive line, as well as one of the top receiving corps in the entire country. Golden Tate (58 rec., 18.6 ypr., 10 TD) and Michael Floyd (48 rec., 15.0 ypr., 7 TD) are as talented of a wide receiving duo in the country. I also expect improvement this year from their number three WR Duval Kumara (20 rec., 10.3 ypr., 1 TD), who is a very talented player. TE Kyle Rudolph (29 rec., 11.7 ypr., 2 TD) comes of an injury plagued ’09 season, but he is one of the better TE’s in the country. RB Armando Allen (4.4 ypc., 621 yds., 3 TD, 50 rec., 7.1 ypr., 2 TD) is a good back who is extremely skilled at catching the ball out of the backfield. Notre Dame returns their top six rushers from last year, headlined by Allen, Robert Hughes (3.4 ypc., 412 yds., 4 TD) and James Aldridge (3.9 ypc., 383 yds., 3 TD). I will give credit to Nevada for having a pair of pretty talented defensive lineman, but the major problem in Nevada’s defense is with their secondary. If Nevada stacks up to play the run, their secondary will be on islands with extremely talented receivers. Clausen may miss a couple of deep throws early, but I do expect Notre Dame to hit a couple of big plays to break the game open. As we saw in Nevada’s bowl game last year, I believe Notre Dame’s running game will be able to wear the Nevada defense down in the fourth quarter, thus creating more separation.

Defensively, Notre Dame will be an improved group, particularly with their linebacking crew. Notre Dame landed top recruit Manti Te’o, who will make an immediate contribution. They also have last year’s number one recruit in Steve Filer, who played mainly in a back-role last year, but will help in containing the Nevada run game. The Irish also have one of the most experienced secondaries in the country, a secondary who gave up less than 200 yards per game through the air last year. Nevada does have a good running game led by RB Vai Taua (15 TD) and get RB Luke Lippincott back this year. They also have one of the more versatile QB’s in the country in Colin Kaepernick (22 TD passing, 17 TD rushing). Nevada did lose their top two pass catchers from last year and they have a tendency to become a bit one dimensional. One thing I noticed with Kaepernick last year was his insistence to throw the ball too hard, whereas in ’07 I thought he put more touch on the ball. If Nevada is left consistently with 3rd and 7’s and 3rd and 8’s its going to be a long day for their offense, forcing Kaepernick to stay in the pocket and attempt to complete intermediate passes, which is not a strength of his.

Nevada will get yards in this game, but that doesn’t mean it will translate into a ton of points. I do expect Notre Dame to separate in the second half of this game, thus my reasoning for laying the two TD’s with the Irish.

Louisiana Tech +12

Louisiana Tech is a veteran football team in search of respect, and I think they will earn some of that come Saturday when they take on SEC foe Auburn. Situationally, I think this game sets up well for Louisiana Tech because they take on an Auburn team who finished last season on a sour note and has undergone a complete overhaul with their coaching staff. La. Tech head coach Derek Dooley is an up and coming coach, a coach I could see coaching in the SEC one day. What I find ironic when I watch his football play, they don’t play like a typical WAC team (all offense, no defense). They are fundamentally sound in special teams, play solid defense while tackling well. Offensively they make good decisions with the football and try to minimize negative plays. They are the type of team built to face this type of SEC foe.

Offensively, Louisiana Tech has one of the most underrated playmakers in the country in WR/KR/PR, Phillip “Saturday Night Livas” (43 rec., 14.1 ypr., 2 TD, 11.2 ypc., 342 yds., 2 TD, 2 punt return TD, 2 kick return TD) This kid is an SEC talent, but unfortunately he is only 5’8”, thus one of the major reasons he ended up at an non-BCS school. Don’t let that fool you because he can change the game in a blink of an eye. Dooley is smart that he gets him the ball in the return game, through the passing game and also allows him to run fly sweeps, very much like James Rogers does at Oregon State. In a game where I expect points to be at a premium, he breaking a big play could go a long way towards La. Tech staying in this ballgame. Senior running back Daniel Porter (5.2 ypc., 1262 yds., 9 TD, 12 rec. 15.1 ypr, 2 TD) is arguably the most talented all-around RB in the WAC and with Tech’s veteran O-line, I do believe he will have some success running the football against Auburn’s defense, a defense who gave up over 200 yards rushing per game their last six games last year. Auburn head coach Gene Chizik is a former Auburn defensive coordinator and he will make improvements to this unit as the season goes one, but everyone thinks Auburn has this vaunted defense. I just don’t see that. The key to this game will be La. Tech QB Ross Jenkins (52.9 comp., 7 TD/ 3 INT) and his decision making with the football. Jenkins started the second half of last year where Tech won five of their last six games. He possesses good footwork and has escabality to make plays outside the pocket.

Defensively, La. Tech will attempt to keep plays in front of them and try to force Auburn’s offense into some mistakes. La. Tech returns 80% of their tacklers from last year and while I don’t believe any of their three units are spectacular, they do have enough balance and discipline on defense to limit big plays from Auburn’s offense. Auburn’s offense comes into this game with many question marks, starting with their QB position. QB Chris Todd (55.1% comp. 5 TD/6 INT) platooned with Kodi Burns (52.5% comp. 2 TD/ 7 INT) last season and there is a good chance we could see both QB’s in this game. It is important to note that Auburn’s leading WR from last season, Montez Billings, will not play in this game due to academic issues. This means Auburn returns a total of 69 receptions from last year. I do think they have some talent on offense in RB Ben Tate (4.2 ypc., 718 yds., 3 TD), TE Tommy Trott (20 rec., 10.1 ypr.) and WR Mario Fannin (20 rec., 255 rushing yards, 3 total TD), who will be used to run the ball more this year for Gus Malzahn’s offense. I’m just not sure that Malzahn will have this offense clicking the first week, which will put more pressure on Auburn’s defense and special teams.

If La. Tech can limit big plays on defense and catch a few big plays on offense, they can battle Auburn deep into the fourth quarter. I’ll side with La. Tech and the points in this game.

Virginia Tech +7

Man, is there a more talked about game this week than this game? I usually try to make a point of staying away from marquee match-ups such as this one, but I see some value in the Va. Tech side and can’t pass up taking them this week. I want to be clear that I have a tremendous amount of respect for Nick Saban and the Alabama football program. That being said, I’m not sure there’s a more disrespected team in the country than this Virginia Tech squad. Everyone says that they play “ugly football” and that QB Tyrod Taylor is terrible. I listened to an interview this offseason in which Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer was asked what his definition of “Beamer Ball” is. He said, “Having all three of his units (offense, defense, and special teams) poised to score at any point of the game. I think this is extremely important to note in this game, because Virginia Tech’s offense doesn’t have to do all of the scoring in this game.

Offensively, it is my belief that the hardest type of quarterback to game plan for, even for a defense as talented as Alabama’s is, a mobile quarterback. I went back and watched seven of Alabama’s games from last year and it is clearly evident to me that the one Achilles heel to their defense is that they don’t regularly account for the quarterback running. Tyrod Taylor (57.2% comp., 2 TD/ 7 INT, 5.0 ypr., 884 yds., 7 TD) is extremely mobile and improved upon his accuracy last season. I mean the guy leads his team to an ACC championship and a BCS bowl victory vs. two quality opponents and all I read is how bad he sucks? C’mon people, give this kid some credit! He is a winner. As many of you know, I have a background in athletics and those of you that do as well know the type of guy Tyrod Taylor is. He’s like Jason Kidd wearing pads. It is also important to note that Virginia Tech returns their top five pass catchers from last year, led by WR Jarett Boykin (30 rec., 14.7 ypr., 2 TD) and WR Danny Coal (36 rec., 11.3 ypr). Virginia Tech will be facing a very good Alabama defense, but it is very vital that the Va. Tech passing game helps open up their running game. I say that because Va. Tech’s top two returning running backs will not play in this game. It will be up to Josh Oglesby (98 yards), Ryan Williams and highly touted freshman David Wilson to carry the load on the ground. Fortunately for these backs, Virginia Tech returns one of the more veteran offensive lines in the country, which will be a key in fending off the pressure they will face from Alabama’s defensive front.

Defensively, all I read is about how good Alabama’s defense is. I am not here to dispute that Alabama has a good defense, in fact I think Nick Saban is the best defensive mind in college football. However, Alabama has sustained injuries to starting DE Brandon Deaderick, and projected starting linebacker Brandon Fanney has been dismissed from the team. Also, NG Terrance “Mount” Cody missed most of practice last week, and as we all know he is a very big athlete, which could affect his conditioning in this game. When you talk about defense, though, is their a better defensive coordinator in the country than Virginia Tech’s Bud Foster? Virginia Tech has a stout defensive front and should have a decided edge against an inexperienced Alabama offensive line, which could help in neutralizing the Alabama running game. There’s no disputing that Alabama has very talented running backs, headed by Mark Ingram (5.1 ypc., 743 yds., 12 TD) and Roy Upchurch (6.0 ypc., 351 yds., 4 TD). A running game is only as good as the offensive line it runs in front of and also as good as their QB. I do believe that Greg McElroy will live up to all of the hype surrounding him as the season goes on, but the fact is this kid has very limited experience and this is his first college start. Expect Virginia Tech to attack McElroy through blitz schemes, much like the ones Alabama will attempt to use against Va. Tech’s offense. Va. Tech has the secondary that can go man on man, even against Julio Jones (58 rec., 15.9 ypr., 4 TD). DB Stephan Virgil should be able to blanket Jones and limit the big plays in Alabama’s passing game. The rest of the Alabama receiving corp., albeit talented, is very inexperienced.

The bottom line for me in this game I see a game where I don’t see a decided edge for either team in coaching, special teams, or defense. I see the slightest of edges for Alabama on offense, but I will take my chances getting a full touchdown in a game that could be played in the high teens. It’s Va. Tech and the points for me in this one.

Georgia +6

Most of you who followed me last year know how much I rode Oklahoma State and how much respect I have for Mike Gundy and his program. This week, though, I can’t pass up the opportunity of taking an extremely talented, well-coached SEC team, who I think can win the battle in the trenches. It is important to note that OSU starting middle linebacker, Orey Lemon, will not play in this one. I note that because as well all witnessed last year, the weakness in this OSU squad is on the defensive side of the football. I do think Gundy made a good hire in bringing over former Miami, FL defensive coordinator Bill Young. It is going to take some time for this unit to gel and they will be facing a Georgia offensive line who should dominate the line of scrimmage. Yes, Georgia is replacing their starting QB and starting RB, as well as one of their top two receivers. What you must remember is that Georgia has had a top ten recruiting class the past five years. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for Oklahoma State, in fact they have rarely broken into the top 25 over that same time frame. I note that because Georgia teams in the past have had a lot smoother transition in re-loading on both sides of the football. Having talented recruiting classes also creates depth in a program, allowing teams like Georgia to rest many of their starters and use talented reserves on special teams. I think it’s also important to note that although Georgia will be going into a hostile environment at T. Boone Pickens Stadium, this is a Georgia squad used to many tough road environments and Georgia Head Coach Mark Richt’s road record definitely reflects that.

Offensively, look for Georgia to open up the game trying to establish the run. RB Caleb King did not make the trip to Stillwater, but fortunately for Georgia their running back corp. is almost as deep as OSU’s is. RB Richard Samuel (5.1 ypc., 137 yds., 1 TD) is a highly touted recruit and should receive a majority of the carries, although it was redshirt freshman Carlton Thomas who impressed me most in the Georgia spring game. QB Joe Cox has (56.9% comp., 432 yds., 5 TD/ 1 INT career) has patiently waited his turn to take over the reigns of the offense. In reading articles this week they may have talented sophomore Logan Gray run some series, which doesn’t bother me because I feel he will provide a nice change of pace. One thing that impresses me about Richt and his offensive coordinator Mike Bobo is the way they use their tight ends so efficiently. Fortunately for them they have recruited some of the best tight ends in the country over the past two years in Aaron White (3 rec., 29.3 ypr., 2 TD), Bruce Figgins, Orson Charles and Arthur Lynch. Expect all four of these players to play an important role in not only the running game but also in the passing game. All of these players should open up some room for talented WR A.J. Green (56 rec., 17.2 ypr, 8 TD). Senior WR Michael Moore (29 rec., 15.6 ypr., 2 TD) is also a big play threat. Look for redshirt freshman WR Tavarres King to step up in the absence of Mohamed Massaquoi, creating a trio of talented wide receivers.

Defensively, Georgia will have their hands full in facing a talented and balanced OSU offense. It has been reported that Zac Robinson (65% comp., 25 TD/ 10 INT, 3.8 ypc., 700 yds., 8 TD) has a slight hamstring injury, and although the OSU athletic department vehemently denies this, I do think there is some validity to the rumor which could affect his mobility. OSU has one of the top RB trios in the country in Kendall Hunter (6.5 ypc., 1626 yds., 16 TD), Keith Toston (6.7 ypc., 694 yds., 9 TD) and Beau Johnson (6.2 ypc., 357 yds., 3 TD). I do expect their offensive line to be a little less experienced coming into the year, which could also play a role in this game. This is a good thing for Georgia’s defense because they will have to contend with the best receiver in the country in OSU’s Dez Bryant (87 rec., 17.0 ypr., 19 TD). Fortunately for Georgia, projected starting TE Jamal Mosely has left the program and there is no other receiver returning for OSU who caught more than ten balls last year.

You will have to hold onto your seat because Stillwater will be rocking, but I’ve watched this OSU team play over the years and they struggle with teams who have similarly talented or better athletes (see Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oregon). I think Georgia has what it takes to keep this game deep into the fourth quarter. I’ll side with Georgia and the points in this game.

BYU +21.5

This is an intriguing game in which I see a lot of people on the other side of. I can understand a person’s reasoning for betting Oklahoma in this one, heck they are a very talented football team and have a history of blowing out teams similar to BYU. However, they are many key factors in this game that lead me to believe that will not be the case when both of these teams take the field on Saturday. First off, this game is being played in the Dallas Cowboys’ stadium in Arlington, Texas. Yes, I realize that there will be more Oklahoma fans than BYU fan (a 3:1 ratio from what I have read), but this game is not in Norman which I believe to be huge. Oklahoma’s home stadium is a huge intimidating factor, their team just seems to play at another level in that stadium. Also, it is the first game of the season for both of these teams and particularly on the offensive side of the football it will be very hard to come out and be firing on all cylinders. It is important to note that Oklahoma is replacing four of their starting five offensive linemen, as well as 3 of their top 4 pass catchers from last year. Actually, that is now five of their top six pass catchers as it was learned yesterday that TE Germain Gresham (66 rec., 14.4 ypr., 14 TD), no doubt the best tight end in the country, will not play in this one.

Defensively, BYU possesses a very strong defensive line, returning all four of their starters from last year. DE Jan Jorgenson is one of the top defensive ends in the country and should be able to apply some pressure to Oklahoma’s talented QB Sam Bradford (67.9% comp., 50 TD/ 8 INT). Bradford also doesn’t have the luxury this year to throw to Juaquin Iglesias or Manual Johnson, not to mention Gresham. I do have respect for WR Ryan Broyles (46 rec., 14.9 ypr., 6 TD) but I still feel he has some maturing to do to become a top notch playmaker like some of his predecessors. Both of the other two receivers are highly touted, but also highly inexperienced. It is my belief that Oklahoma will rely heavily on their running game, and they have three very good running backs in Chris Brown (5.6 ypc., 1239 yds., 20 TD), DeMarco Murray (5.6 ypc., 1038 yds., 14 TD) and highly touted true freshman Jeremy Calhoun. It should be noted that Murray comes into this game with a nagging hamstring injury, a similar injury that kept him out of the national championship game last year. Oklahoma will have to earn their drives against a BYU defense who is strong against the run, what I mean by that is with a lack of a bunch of experienced playmaking WR’s, it will be harder for Bradford to expose the weakness in BYU’s defensive secondary.

Offensively, it is appealing to me that BYU comes into this game with a bunch of senior skill position players. I learned in the offseason that in the second half of last year’s season QB Max Hall (69.2% comp., 35 TD/ 14 INT) played with an illness that caused him to lose 20 pounds and also caused him to lose a lot of zip off of his throws. He is fully recovered heading into this season and is great with his accuracy in the short to intermediate passing game. RB Harvey Unga (4.7 ypc., 1153 yds, 11 TD, 42 rec., 7.4 ypr., 4 TD) is skilled at both running the football as well as catching the ball out of the backfield. FB Manaese Tonga comes into this game in a Shon Greene type fashion, having sat out last year due to academics, but two years ago was the starting tailback. Also, BYU possesses one of the best tight ends in the nation in Dennis Pitta (83 rec., 13.0 ypr., 6 TD). What I don’t think most people realize is that although BYU lost two of their top receivers from last year’s team, notably WR Austin Collie, that their young receiving corp. has had a great spring and fall camp and should actually be an underrated asset heading into this game. I won’t dispute that Oklahoma doesn’t have talent on defense, but they are a unit who gave up over 24 points per game last year.

Basically, I have a hard time passing up playing on a team like BYU getting three plus TD’s, who I think will come into this game highly motivated, even against a team as talented as Oklahoma’s. The bottom line I saw many special teams issues with this Oklahoma team last year. Also, their defense needs couple of games to gel to reach that “next level”. I think BYU’s veteran skill position players can play keep away long enough in this game, have some scoring drives, which can give their defense time to rest on the sidelines and thus keep this game competitive for three quarters. The key will be hanging on when the fourth quarter hits when Oklahoma attempts to pound the ball with their running game. It’s a hard thing to stomach, but I’ll take BYU and the points and hold onto my seat in this game..

LSU -17

Let me start off by saying I am not a big believer in road chalk, in fact this might be the only road favorite I play all season. I just see such a huge separation in talent in this game, combined with the fact that I didn’t see another game worthy taking over this one, that I am willing to lay double digits on the road with LSU in a cross country, late night game with Washington.

Les Miles is the type of coach you want to play on when he plays a lesser talented opponent. I have followed him for years, even back at his days at Oklahoma State, and this guy relishes the opportunity to play the role of a bully. I will say this about the guy, he knows how to recruit top notch athletes, and in my studies he has had the top recruiting classes combined over the last three years in the entire country. I’m talking five star recruits galore. His offense is headlined by their running back corps. Charles Scott (5.4 ypc., 128 yds. 18 TD) will play on Sundays, as will his back-up (who would start for 95% of the teams in the country) Keiland Williams (5.0 ypc., 444 yds., 2 TD). Richard Murphy (4.2 ypc., 202 yds.) will also be licking his chops to get the ball in the fourth quarter of this game, as the LSU offensive lines begins to wear down the Washington defensive front. LSU QB Jordan Jefferson (49.3% comp., 4 TD/ 1 INT) had a break-out game in the Peach Bowl. Jefferson has a strong arm and is also very mobile. Miles has made it clear that Jefferson is his guy, and not Jarrett Lee, thank goodness. I swear to god if I have to watch Lee throw another pick six I might break a TV. What most people haven’t handicapped into this game is that I believe the true back-up QB on this team is Russell Shepard, the number one QB recruit in the entire country. I’ve got a chance to watch this kid play several times and I think he could play as well when he comes into the game as Jefferson will. In the meantime, he will line up at WR with other top pass catchers such as WR Brandon LaFell (63 rec., 14.7 ypr., 8 TD), WR Terrance Tolliver (22 rec., 11.7 ypr., 1 TD) and TE Richard Dickson (31 rec., 10.5 ypr., 5 TD). I have read about how many expect Washington’s defense to be “much improved” and how they “have a lot of people back”. This is a defensive unit that gave up over 450 yards a game last year and over 38 points per game. I just don’t see them in the first week of the season being able to slow down an offense with the talent level and depth of LSU’s.

Defensively, LSU will focus their game plan around containing Washington’s highly touted QB Jake Locker. Locker was hurt at the beginning of last year and only had a total of four TD (1 passing, 3 receiving). It will be very hard for him to play at an optimum level in this game after missing most of last year, especially when he is being chased all night by LSU defensive lineman and linebackers. Locker is the one player I know who could start for LSU. He is the only athlete on the Washington team I can say that about. Washington’s top RB, Christian Polk, comes limping into this game and their only real receiving threat is D’Andre Goodwin (60 rec., 11.5 ypr. 1 TD), but he lacks the breakaway speed to separate himself from the LSU defensive backs.

Steve Sarkisian has his work cut out for him in this game. I do think Washington will be an improved football team by the end of the season, but “Sark” has to be crapping his pants having to open up against a team like LSU. I’m not saying this will be an easy cover, in fact, there will probably be a lot of fans at the game and the game could even be extremely close for a half. It will be a different story in the second half as LSU will pull away from Washington. As much as it pains me to swallow road chalk, I will do so with LSU in this one.

**SportNut** · 09-04-09, 04:08 AM

Nice work as usual Pagsman!!!! Good luck this year..

**clowncar** · 09-04-09, 05:12 AM

Great writeups.

**pags11** · 09-04-09, 05:17 AM

icemantbi,

that one stung a little yes, it's best to just move on...appreciate the support...GL the rest of the weekend...

jholl,

thanks for your confidence in me...we have a day to regroup and will learn a lot about these other teams on Saturday...

VenomLugz,

couldn't have said it better myself...

Skanless1,

definitely was a strange game, gotta tip our hats to Boise and Chris Peterson...

SportNut,

glad you enjoyed the write-up...BOL to you this year as well...

**Joe Dogs** · 09-04-09, 05:30 AM

Im going duck huntin.........Good luck this weekend pags.

**pags11** · 09-04-09, 05:57 AM

clowncar,

thanks very much sir...will be good to catch up with you here soon...

Joe Dogs,

appreciate it...enjoy the time hunting...