COTTON BOWL: Nebraska vs Auburn
Game Time: 1/1/2007 11:30:00 AM
By: Brian Gabrielle
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Play the Nebraska Cornhuskers as 2-point underdogs versus the Auburn Tigers in the Cotton Bowl on New Year's morning.
That Beau Bridges sure is a good football coach.
Oh, wait, that's not Beau Bridges on the University of Nebraska sidelines? Seriously? It's some dude named Bill Callahan who took the Oakland Raiders to the Super Bowl but was unceremoniously fired just a year later? Hmmm. Well, I'll bet Callahan is one heck of a B-movie actor.
Callahan's Cornhuskers have a New Year's appointment in the Cotton Bowl this year, which is a fine landmark on Nebraska's return to football relevance. Not that the Cotton Bowl is considered "major" these days, unless, that is, you also consider the Capital One and Outback Bowls "majors". But the fact that the 'Huskers are even playing on New Year's is a testament to a pretty significant turnaround from Callahan's 5-6 debut season just two years ago.
Monday morning in Dallas, though, Nebraska will be introduced to an entirely different kind of cat: the Auburn Tigers.
Auburn hails from the much-ballyhooed SEC, and as such draws raves it hasn't consistently earned in '06. They've got a fantastic front seven on defense, anchored by DE Quentin Groves and LB Will Herring, which generates one of the more ferocious pass rushes in the country. CB David Irons is a really good cover guy who also can hit. And while Auburn's safeties have been beatable at times, the team typically generates so much push up front that opposing quarterbacks can't get a lot done way downfield. This defense will probably be the best Nebraska has faced all year.
But the Tigers' offense just isn't very good. RB Kenny Irons is a legitimate pro prospect, but has been limited all season by toe, ankle and shoulder injures; the long layoff between regular season's end and New Year's will help him for sure. But if Nebraska's smart, they'll make Auburn QB Brent Cox beat them. While Cox did have a completion percentage over 60% this season, he only threw 13 touchdowns to nine interceptions, made too many bad decisions, and had too many SEC contests (LSU, Arkansas, Georgia and Alabama, at least) where he was more hindrance than help.
I'll face facts: Auburn should win this game handily. They've got a better pedigree, a faster defense, bigger lines and have played a tougher schedule. They toppled then-#6 LSU and #2 Florida. They smother you on defense. But there's something about the Tigers I don't trust. It goes back to last year's bowl game against Wisconsin when the Tigers were pummeled by a big-time underdog Badgers squad, 24-10. It continued forward to the home drubbing, while undefeated, at the hands of Arkansas, as well as the games they probably should've lost at South Carolina and Mississippi. And it certainly includes the inexplicably un-clutch 37-15 home loss to Georgia. At some point, you have to stop listening to the hype, and believe what your eyes tell you. My eyes tell me that Auburn's offense isn't good enough.
Under Coach Bridges, er, Callahan, Nebraska's offense is very good, and, I believe, superior to Auburn's. QB Zac Taylor will be the most important player in this game; he threw 25 TDs and just seven interceptions, three of them against Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, while scattering at least 12 receptions to nine different receivers. The Huskers' pass offense yielded almost exactly the same number of yards per game as USC's did in 2006 (tied for 17th nationally), and their rush attack, anchored by emerging junior RB Brandon Jackson (951 yards rushing, 5.3 yards per carry), ranked 25th nationally, with 175.6 yards per game.
And Nebraska's rush defense is very good, too: Jay Moore, Barry Cryer, Ola Dagunduro and Adam Carriker are athletic and hard to move at the point of attack, and contributed to a run defense that, statistically speaking, was actually a bit better than Auburn's. Where Nebraska can be exploited - - and where Oklahoma torched them to the tune of 265 yards - - is in their youthful secondary.
However, I think the combination of a decent pass rush and Brent Cox at QB for Auburn covers up for this weakness. Taylor's not going to throw for 300 yards and five TDs against the Tigers' defense, but he'll play better than he did against Oklahoma. Nebraska's 28-10 loss at USC early in the season is probably most instructional: Taylor didn't turn the ball over and rushed for Nebraska's only score. In that game, Callahan only took the reins off Taylor to the tune of 16 total pass attempts; I think the Bridges-look-alike learned from his mistake, and will let his best player actually go out and try to win the Cotton Bowl, rather than not lose it. I grant you, Nebraska was out padding their numbers against the fluffy bottom of the Big 12 while Auburn had to play against the nation's deepest league. But while Auburn continued to be pollsters' darlings up until that Georgia loss, they were 2-6 in their last eight games against the spread, 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games, and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite. By contrast, the rebuilding and undervalued Huskers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games, 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off an ATS loss.
This is a tough defensive struggle waiting to happen, and Auburn's defense will probably be the best unit on the field. But Taylor will be the best player on the field, and as long as the game's in Cox's hands (no disrespect intended to the young man as a person), I like Nebraska's chances.
These Auburn players are the same kids who've underperformed (especially offensively) in several big games dating back to their '05 bowl game, and who probably should've lost at least two more games than they did. And while Nebraska really hasn't had a super-big win since toppling Michigan in last year's Alamo Bowl, I think the wise guys still remember the weak '04 Husker team, and aren't giving enough credit to the work celebrity-imposter Callahan has done. As such, I'm willing to take Nebraska (+2) as an underdog to cover against Auburn.
Game Time: 1/1/2007 11:30:00 AM
By: Brian Gabrielle
Winning NBA Basketball Picks - Pro & College Basketball Picks
Play the Nebraska Cornhuskers as 2-point underdogs versus the Auburn Tigers in the Cotton Bowl on New Year's morning.
That Beau Bridges sure is a good football coach.
Oh, wait, that's not Beau Bridges on the University of Nebraska sidelines? Seriously? It's some dude named Bill Callahan who took the Oakland Raiders to the Super Bowl but was unceremoniously fired just a year later? Hmmm. Well, I'll bet Callahan is one heck of a B-movie actor.
Callahan's Cornhuskers have a New Year's appointment in the Cotton Bowl this year, which is a fine landmark on Nebraska's return to football relevance. Not that the Cotton Bowl is considered "major" these days, unless, that is, you also consider the Capital One and Outback Bowls "majors". But the fact that the 'Huskers are even playing on New Year's is a testament to a pretty significant turnaround from Callahan's 5-6 debut season just two years ago.
Monday morning in Dallas, though, Nebraska will be introduced to an entirely different kind of cat: the Auburn Tigers.
Auburn hails from the much-ballyhooed SEC, and as such draws raves it hasn't consistently earned in '06. They've got a fantastic front seven on defense, anchored by DE Quentin Groves and LB Will Herring, which generates one of the more ferocious pass rushes in the country. CB David Irons is a really good cover guy who also can hit. And while Auburn's safeties have been beatable at times, the team typically generates so much push up front that opposing quarterbacks can't get a lot done way downfield. This defense will probably be the best Nebraska has faced all year.
But the Tigers' offense just isn't very good. RB Kenny Irons is a legitimate pro prospect, but has been limited all season by toe, ankle and shoulder injures; the long layoff between regular season's end and New Year's will help him for sure. But if Nebraska's smart, they'll make Auburn QB Brent Cox beat them. While Cox did have a completion percentage over 60% this season, he only threw 13 touchdowns to nine interceptions, made too many bad decisions, and had too many SEC contests (LSU, Arkansas, Georgia and Alabama, at least) where he was more hindrance than help.
I'll face facts: Auburn should win this game handily. They've got a better pedigree, a faster defense, bigger lines and have played a tougher schedule. They toppled then-#6 LSU and #2 Florida. They smother you on defense. But there's something about the Tigers I don't trust. It goes back to last year's bowl game against Wisconsin when the Tigers were pummeled by a big-time underdog Badgers squad, 24-10. It continued forward to the home drubbing, while undefeated, at the hands of Arkansas, as well as the games they probably should've lost at South Carolina and Mississippi. And it certainly includes the inexplicably un-clutch 37-15 home loss to Georgia. At some point, you have to stop listening to the hype, and believe what your eyes tell you. My eyes tell me that Auburn's offense isn't good enough.
Under Coach Bridges, er, Callahan, Nebraska's offense is very good, and, I believe, superior to Auburn's. QB Zac Taylor will be the most important player in this game; he threw 25 TDs and just seven interceptions, three of them against Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, while scattering at least 12 receptions to nine different receivers. The Huskers' pass offense yielded almost exactly the same number of yards per game as USC's did in 2006 (tied for 17th nationally), and their rush attack, anchored by emerging junior RB Brandon Jackson (951 yards rushing, 5.3 yards per carry), ranked 25th nationally, with 175.6 yards per game.
And Nebraska's rush defense is very good, too: Jay Moore, Barry Cryer, Ola Dagunduro and Adam Carriker are athletic and hard to move at the point of attack, and contributed to a run defense that, statistically speaking, was actually a bit better than Auburn's. Where Nebraska can be exploited - - and where Oklahoma torched them to the tune of 265 yards - - is in their youthful secondary.
However, I think the combination of a decent pass rush and Brent Cox at QB for Auburn covers up for this weakness. Taylor's not going to throw for 300 yards and five TDs against the Tigers' defense, but he'll play better than he did against Oklahoma. Nebraska's 28-10 loss at USC early in the season is probably most instructional: Taylor didn't turn the ball over and rushed for Nebraska's only score. In that game, Callahan only took the reins off Taylor to the tune of 16 total pass attempts; I think the Bridges-look-alike learned from his mistake, and will let his best player actually go out and try to win the Cotton Bowl, rather than not lose it. I grant you, Nebraska was out padding their numbers against the fluffy bottom of the Big 12 while Auburn had to play against the nation's deepest league. But while Auburn continued to be pollsters' darlings up until that Georgia loss, they were 2-6 in their last eight games against the spread, 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games, and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite. By contrast, the rebuilding and undervalued Huskers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games, 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off an ATS loss.
This is a tough defensive struggle waiting to happen, and Auburn's defense will probably be the best unit on the field. But Taylor will be the best player on the field, and as long as the game's in Cox's hands (no disrespect intended to the young man as a person), I like Nebraska's chances.
These Auburn players are the same kids who've underperformed (especially offensively) in several big games dating back to their '05 bowl game, and who probably should've lost at least two more games than they did. And while Nebraska really hasn't had a super-big win since toppling Michigan in last year's Alamo Bowl, I think the wise guys still remember the weak '04 Husker team, and aren't giving enough credit to the work celebrity-imposter Callahan has done. As such, I'm willing to take Nebraska (+2) as an underdog to cover against Auburn.
