2009 Big 12 South Preview and Play-On Games

SoonerBS · 06-28-09, 01:53 PM

Oklahoma

Oklahoma runs a close second to Texas this season because of their defense coming back (and injured players getting healthy there as well) and because of their skill players returning on offense, including Heisman Trophy winner, Sam Bradford. So, if they have all these ingredients returning and they won the Big 12 Championship last season, then why do they fall to 2nd place? I am a big believer that for offenses and defenses to function well you have to have good lines. Oklahoma loses 4 out of their 5 offensive linemen off last season's team. This is HUGE in my handicapping. I do not believe the Sooner offense will see near the success that it did last season with them having to totally rebuild their offensive line. Stopps has even been vocal this offseason in his disapointment about the way the line is coming along. The progress of the offensive line will decide how far the Sooners go this season.

One note before I get into play-on games: The most moronic statement I have ever seen Phil Steele print was in the Texas forecast. He said, "If for any reason they end up tied with Oklahoma this year, the voters will pick Texas this year." That proves to me, that like so many others across the nation last year, Phil Steel just didn't understand the rules the Big 12 had in place for deciding ties. The people did not vote Oklahoma into the BCS NC. If Texas wants to blame anybody for that, they need to blame their own weak scheduling because a big part of Oklahoma getting in was the weight of their scheduling factor in the BCS system. "Nuff said.

Play-On Games:

September 5th versus BYU: The Cougars are picked to win the Mountain West Division this year and the MWC teams usually do quite well in their OOC games, but I think this is a game where BYU gets an old fashioned butt-whipping. BYU brings back only 4 starters on offense from last year. So, not only do they need to rebuild an offense line, but they have some skill players to replace as well. Defensively, I feel secure in believing that BYU has not seen an offense as potent as Oklahoma's in quite some time. This is a neutral site, but Oklahoma will have more fans simply because it is closer and not far for the Oklahoma fans to travel (not to mention the fact that there are thousands of misplaced Sooner fans in the Dallas area as well.) In the end, Oklahoma's defense will be too powerful for BYU to overcome and their offense should be potent enough to cover the spread and few points more. My prediction: Oklahoma 38 and BYU 14.

September 19th versus Tulsa: While I have no doubt that Tulsa will likely do well in CUSA play, they start the season with 3 road games and this is the third in the series and by far the toughest of the three. Tulsa has only 5 returning on offense (and their defense is not much to speak of). Not only do they have to replace the starting QB, but they have a different OC after Gus Malzahn left. I look for Tulsa still to be in the mode where they are trying to find some team chemistry. This is not likely going to be pretty. My prediction: Oklahoma 52 and Tulsa 21.

SoonerBS · 06-28-09, 01:53 PM

Oklahoma State

To me, we're not looking at anymore of a difference this season with Oklahoma State than we were last season except for the fact that the lines may not be as favorable for us to get to 8-4 ATS with them. Once again, Oklahoma State's offensive weapons are some of the best in the league and should be highly potent again. But, I think there are concerns on the defense. Maybe Bill Young is the DC savior everyone thinks he is, but I think Beckman was very good and let's not forget he lost Fedora towards the end of the season as well. So both his OC and DC of last season's success have moved on to take HC positions themselves. Defensively, OSU lost 2 defensive linemen and 3 defensive backs. They are shoring these spots up with mostly JUCO transfers. Maybe it works, but maybe it doesn't. Still, Oklahoma State's defense is not known for their strength and I don't think it will be this season as well.

NOTE: I'll have more to say about this whenever I talk about Georgia later, but I think Oklahoma State loses their opener against Georgia.

Play-On Games:

September 19th versus Rice: Rice returns only 4 starters off their stellar offense from last season. While they return 9 on defense, it is safe to say their defense was never anything special anyway. Rice will really struggle this year and Oklahoma State may be looking at their first ATS win of the season right here on this game. My prediction: Oklahoma State 49 and Rice 10.

October 31st versus Texas: This could quite possibly be the biggest test the Texas defense faces all season long. Two years ago, Oklahoma State should have upset Texas here at Boone stadium, but the Oklahoma State jinx against Texas set in and Texas once again pulled their ass out of a ringer. Last season Texas was just too much for Oklahoma State to overcome in Austin. I think we see a repeat of the game in 2007, but with a different ending . . . My prediction: Oklahoma State 38 and Texas 35.

November 19 versus Colorado: I always take the home team in nationally televised Thursday Night games. There is no exception to this rule as it always wins me money at the end of the season.

SoonerBS · 06-28-09, 01:54 PM

Texas Tech

With only 4 offensive starters returning off their 11-2 team of last season, I think it's safe for us to say that it is a definite rebuilding year this year. That is a good thing for us bettors . . . . you heard me right, I said it is a GOOD thing. Texas Tech hasn't been a good ATS team since their 2003 season whenever they went 9-4 ATS. That has been largely due to the fact that they have been competitive and everyone expects them to win and run the score up on teams. Because of this, Vegas has set the lines too high for any "play-on" value. But, because they have lost the trio of Harrell, Crabtree and Woods this season, the lines should soften. That is good for us because Leach is an offensive genius and has shown success of plugging players into his system ever since he took over the head coaching job at Tech. Taylor Potts takes over at QB and has the physical and athletic skills to be very good. He's been in the system for 3 years so he will likely have the mentality for the job as well. Just because Crabtree has left doesn't mean the cupboard is bare on the WR corps either. The Spring game proved that the WR corps has reloaded and it is sound with good receivers. Woods leaves at RB, but Batch is back and he proved to be a better RB last season anyway gaining 6.7 ypc on average. Tech has to replace 3 offensive linemen, but they are not desolate there either as all the players stepping in are athletic and recruited for Leach's system of offense. This offense is going to be fine this season, guys, and will continue to rack up the yards and points.

Defensively they bring back 7 starters, but they will lack any proven pass rushers on the team. Still, Tech has never been anything special on defense and has always relied on outscoring their opponents versus stopping them.

Play-On Games:

September 12th versus Rice: Rice is going to be down this year. Rice has never sported a good defense, so it is likely they will not be able stop Tech at all in this game. On top of that, Rice probably lost a lot more offensively last year than Tech did for the mere reason that they are unable to reload because of their recruiting like Tech does year after year. My prediction: Texas Tech 62 and Rice 21.

October 10th versus Kansas State: K-State couldn't hold Tech last season at Manhattan and I don't see things changing drastically for the Wildcats trip to Lubbock. K-State should have some false confidence coming into this game with UCLA being the only TRUE opponent they will have faced. Tech will really stretch their defense. My prediction: Texas Tech 52 and K-State 14.

November 21st versus Oklahoma: I think this is a bad spot for Oklahoma. Oklahoma will be coming off what I think is an easy game against Texas A&M the week before, but will have what should be a very important game for bowl selection against in-state rival Oklahoma State the next week. It is ALWAYS tough for Oklahoma to go to Lubbock. This should be a "look ahead" spot for Oklahoma. My prediction: Oklahoma 42 and Texas Tech 38. (I'm expecting Oklahoma to be at least -6 favorites coming into this game.)

SoonerBS · 06-28-09, 01:54 PM

Baylor

Phil Steele has Baylor going to a bowl this season winning at least 6 games to get them there. I agree. They could very well be undefeated going into the Oklahoma game on October 10th and I don't know the last time they have ever done that. Briles proved to me last season that he belongs in the ranks of one of the great coaches coaching in the FBS. I speculated on this his entire tenure at Houston, but to take this Baylor program over and in one year make them competitive is a rare feat of coaching in my book. He deserves my kudos.

Now, let's also admit this -- he, and his star QB, Robert Griffin, will not be sneaking up on anyone this year. Still, this is the second season under Briles and the players will have caught on better to his offensive schemes and the defensive schemes of his DC, Brian Norwood. They bring back 16 starters from last season and for once boast some stars on both sides of the ball. The season should cause Baylor fans to be hopeful if the players can remain healthy.

Play-On Games:

September 5th versus Wake Forest: It's rare for me to pick an "away" game as a "play-on" game as I am mostly a home field player. But, I'm thinking that Baylor should be a dog going into this game and I think they will win SU. IF they are not a dog, this is a "NO PLAY!" However, I do think they will be a dog. This is a revenge spot after last season's loss to Wake Forest at home in the opening game. In fact, this game was never close. Freeman started this game last year before being replaced with Baylor's future QB, Robert Griffin. This year it will be different, WF will get a steady diet of Griffith and with only 4 defensive starters coming back, WF's defense is going to have a hard time keeping up with this offense. WF will have a decent defensive line, but the rest of the team is questionable. Once griffith or his receivers get by the front line, it could be nothing but endzone in front of them. Wake Forest only averaged 21 ppg on offense last season and I was never impressed with them offensively. I think Baylor's defense can hold them for a SU win here. My Prediction: Baylor 32 and Wake Forest 17.

September 19th versus UCONN: I remember watching this game last year and I got a bad line with UCONN at -12. Baylor lost the game by 11. UCONN had a hard time containing Griffin in that game and Baylor was able to move the ball on them. UCONN had a decent team last year, but they will slip backwards this year with the loss of their starting QB and star RB, Brown. In all they return 6 starters on offense and 6 on defense. Defensively they will be decent this season, but they will not be able to keep up with Baylor on the scoreboard in this game. My prediction: Baylor 35 and UCONN 14.

October 24th versus Oklahoma State: This is a bad spot for Oklahoma State. I think Oklahoma State is really going to be looking forward to giving Texas a loss the following Saturday of this game. Because of this, this is looking like a classic "look ahead" spot for OSU. With a questionable defensive front for Oklahoma State, they should struggle containing Griffin and company. Oklahoma State better look out or they could lose this game here. My prediction: Oklahoma State 36 and Baylor 35.

November 28th versus Texas Tech: Last year Tech had an "Oklahoma Layover" on this game and almost got beat by Baylor. This year, I think it is going to happen as Tech takes a step backwards and Baylor takes a step forward and this game gets played on a neutral field in Arlington, TX. My prediction: Baylor 45 and Texas Tech 38.

SoonerBS · 06-28-09, 01:54 PM

Texas A&M

I've heard some boast that Texas A&M will be better this year because they bring back 10 on the offensive side and this is the 2nd year under HC, Sherman. Steele thinks they will be 3-0 going into the Arkansas game on a neutral field in Arlington, TX., but I'm not so sure. I think UAB could produce A&M's first loss of the season as they look ahead to the Arkansas game. A&M moved to the bottom of the pecking order last year with a 4-8 record. I don't look for them to move up from that spot this year. Let's face it, Francione really screwed this program over BAD! I'm also not convinced that Sherman was the right choice in hiring a new HC. Their offense might bring back nearly everybody, but they only averaged 25 ppg last season, which in the Big 12 was very POOR. Their defense allowed a whopping 462 ypg and 37.4 ppg. So, it may be a good thing that they lose 5 players off that squad. I see some highly recruited players filling some spots on both sides of the ball, so maybe fans can hold on to that fact as a hope, but I'm not. Guys, the bottom line here is that I am an offensive and defensive line guy and neither one of these lines are good. I can't speak very positive about them. Steele thinks they will make it to a bowl game this year, but I do not.

Play-On Games:

October 3rd versus Arkansas: This is the only play-on spot I can find with Texas A&M this time of the season. Arkansas has this OOC game sandwiched between Alabama and Auburn. This game is played on a neutral field at Arlington, TX. Arkansas should be a vastly improved team this season, but their focus may be off here. My prediction: Arkansas 28 and Texas A&M 24.

November 21st versus Baylor: Here is one of those games where Baylor should win, but I think they overlook Texas A&M and get beat. This game is sanwiched between Texas and Texas tech for Baylor. Texas is probably a loss, but texas tech could be a win. I see a serious "look ahead" spot here for Baylor, but a legitimate win spot here for Texas A&M before they go lose to Texas the next week. My prediction: Texas A&M 31 and Baylor 28.