Second Half To Be Decisive for Huskies against PSU
No. 11 Washington (10-2) plays No. 9 Penn State (10-2) on Saturday, December 30th, at 4 PM ET in the Fiesta Bowl. Penn State opened as 3-point favorites, but are now favored by only 2 points,
despite strong support from the betting public.
PSU’s pass defense flounders, even against less-talented receivers, when they struggle to pressure the quarterback. They bullied low-ranked offensive lines like Northwestern and Michigan. But against Ohio State, for instance, when they managed 2 sacks and 1 QB hurry in 56 tries, the opposing quarterback went 33/39 328 yards 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Defensive end Ryan Buchholz will play in the Fiesta Bowl. But even while he was healthy, PSU allowed opposing quarterbacks like Iowa’s Nathan Stanley to have one of their best games when struggling to apply pressure.
Pass protection is the strength of UW’s o-line. UW allowed an average of 1.7 sacks and 0 QB hurries in their last 3 games, including against Washington State, which ranks 8th in sack %. The key for Washington’s pass blocking will be to avoid obvious passing situations: they rank 10th in standard down sack rate allowed, but 96th in passing down sack rate allowed.
Running back Myles Gaskin will be important for UW’s pass blocking by helping to avoid obvious passing situations. Gaskin averages over 6 yards per carry on 1st- and 2nd- and long. He averages 1.4 YPC more in the second half. UW, like Gaskin, is more dangerous in the second half. UW ranks 36th in first-half points, but 13th in second-half points.
The top-20 ranking of Penn State’s run defense is deceiving. PSU’s defensive line ranks 69th in short-yardage situations and 39th in stopping opposing runners at the line of scrimmage. But these numbers are inflated. PSU only faced 1 team in the top 80 in terms of YPC, Ohio State.
Penn State lacks reliable backup linebackers—the suspension of Manny Bowen doesn’t help. So their starters are apt to lose endurance. Ohio State’s 201 rush yards on 5.2 YPC against Penn State exposed the weakness of Penn State’s defensive line and PSU's vulnerability to attrition and misdirection play-calling (a proclivity of UW’s offense).
UW will boast a balanced offense led by Gaskin and Jake Browning, whose accuracy and efficiency (68.9% completion, 18-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio) supersede what PSU’s defense has seen.
The Huskies' run defense ranks 5th vs ranked teams, 11th vs winning FBS teams. They held their toughest opponent, Stanford (4th in YPC), to 1.6 YPC below their season average, despite Stanford’s massive time of possession. Nose tackle Vita Vea excels at occupying multiple blockers so that his teammates can swarm the ballcarrier. Ryan Bates should play, but is listed at backup right tackle. PSU’s offensive line is atrocious. Their o-line ranks 89th in short-yardage situations and 105th in stuff rate, meaning that their running backs frequently get met at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Whereas Browning proved himself against Utah’s 27th-ranked pass defense, in terms of opposing QB rating, PSU’s Trace McSorley's only 300 yard passing games came against Michigan State, which ranks 85th vs FBS winning teams, Nebraska, which ranks 94th, and Indiana, which ranks 58th in opposing passer rating. PSU’s pass protection is weak, especially on passing downs. Even though McSorley’s receiving corps has a size advantage, PSU’s bigger players will take too much time to get downfield and won’t help PSU sustain drives.
Barkley could be utilized creatively. But their offensive coordinator departed. Ricky Rahne will be calling plays for the first time since since PSU’s 2015 bowl game.
The Verdict
PSU Coach James Franklin is winless at Penn State away from home against ranked opponents. UW will prolong that streak behind its more balanced offense and defense.
NCAAF Pick: Washington +2
My notes:
PSU: struggles repeatedly with misdirection— Pitt (41 yards above ypg allowed at home), OSU (39 points). Petersen likes misdirection.
PSU struggles when not achieving pressure on QB: OSU, MSU, even Stanley had one of his best games with Buchholz in. They’ve bullied low-ranked o-lines like Indiana and Michigan. Difference between pass and run protection! UW much better at pass protection than run protection (87th in tackles for loss allowed vs fbs winning teams): allows guys into backfield but doesn’t allow sacks. 1.7 sacks allowed and 0 qb hurries last 3 games including against solid wash st sack % (8th). Key for pass blocking is to avoid obvious passing situations (ranked 10th in standard down sack rate vs 96th in passing down) Yes UW lacks weapons: Ross, #2 WR, tight end, but OSU and Sparty pass attack not exactly filled with weapons, only good pass protection. PSU hasn’t faced QB with the accuracy and efficiency of Browning and they won’t be able to blitz against him to compensate for lack of pass rush since he was one of best vs blitz in 2016. Browning solid vs Utah 27th in opp passer rating, which ranks over 30 spots ahead of the teams which McSorely has managed 300+ against, except for Sparty, due to lack of good quarterbacks played. Yes UW runs a lot more, but Browning showed ability to pass when necessary. When he passes a lot, he can get into a rhythm. PSU isn’t prepared for this kind of offensive balance—not against OSU, not against UW.
PSU D geared towards stopping run. (ie with likes of former linebacker, second leading tackler, Allen at safety and Cabinda). Dedication to Gaskin early for sake of attrition, second half to expose lack of depth at linebacker.. UW a second-half team (36th in first half points, 13th in second half) as Gaskin is a second-half runner. (5.5 ypc 1h, 6.9 2h) Gaskin over 6 YPC on 1st and 2nd and long, can avoid obvious passing downs.
UW solid run defense (5th vs ranked, 11th vs FBS winning, vs best opponent stanford held them well below average ypc despite all their time of possession). Atrocious PSU o-line, Bates also doesn’t seem to be fully fit. D Line 6th in Adjusted sack rate for UW vs PSU’s outside top 60 in the category. Not a lot of D-line penetration against the run either: (69th in power success rate, 38th in stuff rate despite having faced one team in top 80 in terms of rush ypc, ohio state) but also thin at linebacker. Penn State 5th in tackles for loss vs FBS winning teams, but liable to be worn down due to lack of depth and lack of support from interior d-line.
PSU scoring inflated by special teams and defense (see osu), many points even with little production from Barkley—unlikely vs UW who doesn’t turn it over much, solid punting. UW didn’t allow KO return longer than 33 yards all year.
PSU wide receivers only 7 40+ yard receptions. 300 yard games vs sparty pass D that ranks 85th vs fbs winning teams, nebraska 94th, indiana 39th. Size with tight end yes, but more of a red zone thing, not for sustaining drives. Return of Murphy. PSU pass blocking also very weak (time needed for size to get down the field as opposed to a screen pass or quick slant.
Barkley dangerous in passing. Overall he can be used creatively. Perfect example: Michigan. But O-coordinator departed. Ricky Rahne calling plays for first time since 2015 bowl game
Franklin @ PSU winless away from home vs ranked opponents.
No. 11 Washington (10-2) plays No. 9 Penn State (10-2) on Saturday, December 30th, at 4 PM ET in the Fiesta Bowl. Penn State opened as 3-point favorites, but are now favored by only 2 points,
despite strong support from the betting public.
PSU’s pass defense flounders, even against less-talented receivers, when they struggle to pressure the quarterback. They bullied low-ranked offensive lines like Northwestern and Michigan. But against Ohio State, for instance, when they managed 2 sacks and 1 QB hurry in 56 tries, the opposing quarterback went 33/39 328 yards 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Defensive end Ryan Buchholz will play in the Fiesta Bowl. But even while he was healthy, PSU allowed opposing quarterbacks like Iowa’s Nathan Stanley to have one of their best games when struggling to apply pressure.
Pass protection is the strength of UW’s o-line. UW allowed an average of 1.7 sacks and 0 QB hurries in their last 3 games, including against Washington State, which ranks 8th in sack %. The key for Washington’s pass blocking will be to avoid obvious passing situations: they rank 10th in standard down sack rate allowed, but 96th in passing down sack rate allowed.
Running back Myles Gaskin will be important for UW’s pass blocking by helping to avoid obvious passing situations. Gaskin averages over 6 yards per carry on 1st- and 2nd- and long. He averages 1.4 YPC more in the second half. UW, like Gaskin, is more dangerous in the second half. UW ranks 36th in first-half points, but 13th in second-half points.
The top-20 ranking of Penn State’s run defense is deceiving. PSU’s defensive line ranks 69th in short-yardage situations and 39th in stopping opposing runners at the line of scrimmage. But these numbers are inflated. PSU only faced 1 team in the top 80 in terms of YPC, Ohio State.
Penn State lacks reliable backup linebackers—the suspension of Manny Bowen doesn’t help. So their starters are apt to lose endurance. Ohio State’s 201 rush yards on 5.2 YPC against Penn State exposed the weakness of Penn State’s defensive line and PSU's vulnerability to attrition and misdirection play-calling (a proclivity of UW’s offense).
UW will boast a balanced offense led by Gaskin and Jake Browning, whose accuracy and efficiency (68.9% completion, 18-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio) supersede what PSU’s defense has seen.
The Huskies' run defense ranks 5th vs ranked teams, 11th vs winning FBS teams. They held their toughest opponent, Stanford (4th in YPC), to 1.6 YPC below their season average, despite Stanford’s massive time of possession. Nose tackle Vita Vea excels at occupying multiple blockers so that his teammates can swarm the ballcarrier. Ryan Bates should play, but is listed at backup right tackle. PSU’s offensive line is atrocious. Their o-line ranks 89th in short-yardage situations and 105th in stuff rate, meaning that their running backs frequently get met at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Whereas Browning proved himself against Utah’s 27th-ranked pass defense, in terms of opposing QB rating, PSU’s Trace McSorley's only 300 yard passing games came against Michigan State, which ranks 85th vs FBS winning teams, Nebraska, which ranks 94th, and Indiana, which ranks 58th in opposing passer rating. PSU’s pass protection is weak, especially on passing downs. Even though McSorley’s receiving corps has a size advantage, PSU’s bigger players will take too much time to get downfield and won’t help PSU sustain drives.
Barkley could be utilized creatively. But their offensive coordinator departed. Ricky Rahne will be calling plays for the first time since since PSU’s 2015 bowl game.
The Verdict
PSU Coach James Franklin is winless at Penn State away from home against ranked opponents. UW will prolong that streak behind its more balanced offense and defense.
NCAAF Pick: Washington +2
My notes:
PSU: struggles repeatedly with misdirection— Pitt (41 yards above ypg allowed at home), OSU (39 points). Petersen likes misdirection.
PSU struggles when not achieving pressure on QB: OSU, MSU, even Stanley had one of his best games with Buchholz in. They’ve bullied low-ranked o-lines like Indiana and Michigan. Difference between pass and run protection! UW much better at pass protection than run protection (87th in tackles for loss allowed vs fbs winning teams): allows guys into backfield but doesn’t allow sacks. 1.7 sacks allowed and 0 qb hurries last 3 games including against solid wash st sack % (8th). Key for pass blocking is to avoid obvious passing situations (ranked 10th in standard down sack rate vs 96th in passing down) Yes UW lacks weapons: Ross, #2 WR, tight end, but OSU and Sparty pass attack not exactly filled with weapons, only good pass protection. PSU hasn’t faced QB with the accuracy and efficiency of Browning and they won’t be able to blitz against him to compensate for lack of pass rush since he was one of best vs blitz in 2016. Browning solid vs Utah 27th in opp passer rating, which ranks over 30 spots ahead of the teams which McSorely has managed 300+ against, except for Sparty, due to lack of good quarterbacks played. Yes UW runs a lot more, but Browning showed ability to pass when necessary. When he passes a lot, he can get into a rhythm. PSU isn’t prepared for this kind of offensive balance—not against OSU, not against UW.
PSU D geared towards stopping run. (ie with likes of former linebacker, second leading tackler, Allen at safety and Cabinda). Dedication to Gaskin early for sake of attrition, second half to expose lack of depth at linebacker.. UW a second-half team (36th in first half points, 13th in second half) as Gaskin is a second-half runner. (5.5 ypc 1h, 6.9 2h) Gaskin over 6 YPC on 1st and 2nd and long, can avoid obvious passing downs.
UW solid run defense (5th vs ranked, 11th vs FBS winning, vs best opponent stanford held them well below average ypc despite all their time of possession). Atrocious PSU o-line, Bates also doesn’t seem to be fully fit. D Line 6th in Adjusted sack rate for UW vs PSU’s outside top 60 in the category. Not a lot of D-line penetration against the run either: (69th in power success rate, 38th in stuff rate despite having faced one team in top 80 in terms of rush ypc, ohio state) but also thin at linebacker. Penn State 5th in tackles for loss vs FBS winning teams, but liable to be worn down due to lack of depth and lack of support from interior d-line.
PSU scoring inflated by special teams and defense (see osu), many points even with little production from Barkley—unlikely vs UW who doesn’t turn it over much, solid punting. UW didn’t allow KO return longer than 33 yards all year.
PSU wide receivers only 7 40+ yard receptions. 300 yard games vs sparty pass D that ranks 85th vs fbs winning teams, nebraska 94th, indiana 39th. Size with tight end yes, but more of a red zone thing, not for sustaining drives. Return of Murphy. PSU pass blocking also very weak (time needed for size to get down the field as opposed to a screen pass or quick slant.
Barkley dangerous in passing. Overall he can be used creatively. Perfect example: Michigan. But O-coordinator departed. Ricky Rahne calling plays for first time since 2015 bowl game
Franklin @ PSU winless away from home vs ranked opponents.
