Season here. 18-16 +8.48 units.
Friday
Bowling Green -12 (7 units) over N. Illinois.
BG had 2 bad games all season. They lost to Toledo mainly because of 4 turnovers and got hammered by Tennessee in the season opener. The Falcons third loss was against a Memphis team, that was close to the end.
All 3 of those teams were bowlers last year and all have improved this year. So its not like the Falcons were beat by soft teams. This line has moved 3 points at least since it opened and according to some sources its still being bet on heavy for NIU. NIU is still a good program, but I think the Falcons will get it done early and hold off any NIU threat late.
Key Note: Loss of starting QB Hare is too big of a drop off, for NUI to compete with the Falcons.
Saturday.
Florida +17.5 (10 units) over Alabama.
Last week was one of the biggest misleading scores for Florida against Fla, St. Tne Gators were without their best receiver who was suspended and also self destructed 3 times in the red zone.
Bama, who won and covered over Auburn, was very lucky to cover with a 4th and 1 with seconds to go leading by 22-13 favored by 14.5. Auburn gave them all they could handle and one big mistake could have sent Alabama home a loser. The Tide was lucky and that game was as close to even – although the scoreboard said different.
That brings me to this game with a huge 17.5 point line against a Gator team that
“looked” bad on the scoreboard last week, but is far better than the score indicated.
Bama has been able to run the ball and control a lot of the clock, but this game poses a new dimension for the Tide, as the Gators have a superb run defense only allowing 3.5 yds per carry against all comers.
My line on this game was 11. So this one is over-priced by a full TD, in my opinion.
Baylor -20.5 (10 units) over Texas.
The Bears lost a tough one LW against TCU. The Horned Frogs have improved a lot in the last 4 games by playing great defense. Baylor did outgain the Frogs, but lost on the scoreboard because of 5 turnovers.
Texas cashed in their season early with a losing record and will try to play this as their bowl game to finish the season. Unfortunately, its in Bear country and that will be a monumental task.
This line would be at least 28 plus, if either previous starting QB was playing.
Baylor, is relying on a third string QB and will play it heavy with the run game.
North Carolina +6 (8 units) over Clemson.
Tigers have played its last 4 games against weak losing teams. Getting ready for a superior opponent is a big step up. The Tigers had an easy time with, ‘Cuse, Wake and South Carolina. Playing North Carolina is much different.
The Tarheels have not had it easy and their last 5 opponents have all been winners except for VT who is 6-6. They beat NC.State, Miami Fla., Pitt and Duke.
Clemson was lucky to beat Notre Dame as a truly solid and ranked team. They won that game on 5 ND turnovers and were outgained badly in Clemson.
This game is a real test for a championship title and if Clemson doesn’t win the turnover battle, they lose this SU. If the Tarheels falter and turn over the ball, they still have enough offense to catch up and keep it inside the spread.
USC +5 ( 9 units) over Stanford.
Cardinals beat Southern Cal straight up on the Trojans home field earlier this year. Stanford has played well all season after the opening stunner in losing SU to Northwestern.
USC has had issues from several teams, in losing to Washington, Notre Dame and Oregon just 2 weeks ago. But - the Cardinals were originally 9.5 point underdogs in Southern Cal for the first game they played this season and now they are favored by -5 on a neutral field. This is significant, to have a line swing 15 points between 2 teams in the same season, regardless of where its played.
What we have here is a bad line in my opinion, based on public perception and the fact that USC has 4 losses while Stanford has only 2.
Stanford should have beat Oregon - but didn’t. The Cardinals out-gained the Ducks by 70 yards and had an astounding 32 first downs compared to the Ducks 18! The Cardinals could not stop the run, as Oregon ran for 231 in that game.
USC has improved on defense from a year ago quite a bit, but Stanford (as good as their record is) has regressed. It didn’t show early in the season for both teams, but it has shaped up now to get a good read on both teams.
The Cards did shut down Oregon QB Adams, but still lost. That game was in Stanford Stadium. USC lost to the Ducks in Oregon.
In my opinion I think that Kessler is too good to lose twice to Stanford in the same season and if they do, it should be a close game. The Cards have a great QB as well in Hogan and both QB’s would be top draft choices in the NFL.
Based on the improvement of USC defense, this is the side that should win the cash.
Michigan State -3 (10 units) over Iowa.
Hawkeyes have impressed the voters and got ranked quite high. But this team didn’t play Michigan or Ohio State this year and would have lost both of those games, IMO.
The Spartans did play both and won both, SU AWAY!
I think the Hawkeyes are going to struggle on offense and if that’s the case, I expect the pressure to be too much for a first year QB starter on Iowa. Connor Cook get’s the win here for the Spartans.
Appy State -18 (5 units) over South Alabama.
If South Alabama didn’t lose all but 5 starters from a year ago, this game would be competitive. But since Appy State has returned 20 starters from last, year, it won’t be.
Southern Mississippi +7.5. (5 units) over WKU
WKU has surprised many as they have dominated their conference this season. To the credit of WKU, they lost 2 games. One to the BIG 10 (Indiana) and One to the SEC (LSU).
Very Impressive - is that Both Losses were away. Although WKU lost to LSU 48-20 they were only out-gained by 70 yards that day. The Indiana game was close, as WKU lost by three, 38-35. Again in that game, they were only out-gained by about 70 yards as well.
SM played nearly as good with losses to Nebraska, Mississippi State and Marshall. The Marshall game was lost because of 4 costly turnovers 31-10.
Third year starter at QB for SM is going to show up in this game. WKU has a more experienced team over all with 16 returning starters, but this one could be decided by a point or 2.
Friday
Bowling Green -12 (7 units) over N. Illinois.
BG had 2 bad games all season. They lost to Toledo mainly because of 4 turnovers and got hammered by Tennessee in the season opener. The Falcons third loss was against a Memphis team, that was close to the end.
All 3 of those teams were bowlers last year and all have improved this year. So its not like the Falcons were beat by soft teams. This line has moved 3 points at least since it opened and according to some sources its still being bet on heavy for NIU. NIU is still a good program, but I think the Falcons will get it done early and hold off any NIU threat late.
Key Note: Loss of starting QB Hare is too big of a drop off, for NUI to compete with the Falcons.
Saturday.
Florida +17.5 (10 units) over Alabama.
Last week was one of the biggest misleading scores for Florida against Fla, St. Tne Gators were without their best receiver who was suspended and also self destructed 3 times in the red zone.
Bama, who won and covered over Auburn, was very lucky to cover with a 4th and 1 with seconds to go leading by 22-13 favored by 14.5. Auburn gave them all they could handle and one big mistake could have sent Alabama home a loser. The Tide was lucky and that game was as close to even – although the scoreboard said different.
That brings me to this game with a huge 17.5 point line against a Gator team that
“looked” bad on the scoreboard last week, but is far better than the score indicated.
Bama has been able to run the ball and control a lot of the clock, but this game poses a new dimension for the Tide, as the Gators have a superb run defense only allowing 3.5 yds per carry against all comers.
My line on this game was 11. So this one is over-priced by a full TD, in my opinion.
Baylor -20.5 (10 units) over Texas.
The Bears lost a tough one LW against TCU. The Horned Frogs have improved a lot in the last 4 games by playing great defense. Baylor did outgain the Frogs, but lost on the scoreboard because of 5 turnovers.
Texas cashed in their season early with a losing record and will try to play this as their bowl game to finish the season. Unfortunately, its in Bear country and that will be a monumental task.
This line would be at least 28 plus, if either previous starting QB was playing.
Baylor, is relying on a third string QB and will play it heavy with the run game.
North Carolina +6 (8 units) over Clemson.
Tigers have played its last 4 games against weak losing teams. Getting ready for a superior opponent is a big step up. The Tigers had an easy time with, ‘Cuse, Wake and South Carolina. Playing North Carolina is much different.
The Tarheels have not had it easy and their last 5 opponents have all been winners except for VT who is 6-6. They beat NC.State, Miami Fla., Pitt and Duke.
Clemson was lucky to beat Notre Dame as a truly solid and ranked team. They won that game on 5 ND turnovers and were outgained badly in Clemson.
This game is a real test for a championship title and if Clemson doesn’t win the turnover battle, they lose this SU. If the Tarheels falter and turn over the ball, they still have enough offense to catch up and keep it inside the spread.
USC +5 ( 9 units) over Stanford.
Cardinals beat Southern Cal straight up on the Trojans home field earlier this year. Stanford has played well all season after the opening stunner in losing SU to Northwestern.
USC has had issues from several teams, in losing to Washington, Notre Dame and Oregon just 2 weeks ago. But - the Cardinals were originally 9.5 point underdogs in Southern Cal for the first game they played this season and now they are favored by -5 on a neutral field. This is significant, to have a line swing 15 points between 2 teams in the same season, regardless of where its played.
What we have here is a bad line in my opinion, based on public perception and the fact that USC has 4 losses while Stanford has only 2.
Stanford should have beat Oregon - but didn’t. The Cardinals out-gained the Ducks by 70 yards and had an astounding 32 first downs compared to the Ducks 18! The Cardinals could not stop the run, as Oregon ran for 231 in that game.
USC has improved on defense from a year ago quite a bit, but Stanford (as good as their record is) has regressed. It didn’t show early in the season for both teams, but it has shaped up now to get a good read on both teams.
The Cards did shut down Oregon QB Adams, but still lost. That game was in Stanford Stadium. USC lost to the Ducks in Oregon.
In my opinion I think that Kessler is too good to lose twice to Stanford in the same season and if they do, it should be a close game. The Cards have a great QB as well in Hogan and both QB’s would be top draft choices in the NFL.
Based on the improvement of USC defense, this is the side that should win the cash.
Michigan State -3 (10 units) over Iowa.
Hawkeyes have impressed the voters and got ranked quite high. But this team didn’t play Michigan or Ohio State this year and would have lost both of those games, IMO.
The Spartans did play both and won both, SU AWAY!
I think the Hawkeyes are going to struggle on offense and if that’s the case, I expect the pressure to be too much for a first year QB starter on Iowa. Connor Cook get’s the win here for the Spartans.
Appy State -18 (5 units) over South Alabama.
If South Alabama didn’t lose all but 5 starters from a year ago, this game would be competitive. But since Appy State has returned 20 starters from last, year, it won’t be.
Southern Mississippi +7.5. (5 units) over WKU
WKU has surprised many as they have dominated their conference this season. To the credit of WKU, they lost 2 games. One to the BIG 10 (Indiana) and One to the SEC (LSU).
Very Impressive - is that Both Losses were away. Although WKU lost to LSU 48-20 they were only out-gained by 70 yards that day. The Indiana game was close, as WKU lost by three, 38-35. Again in that game, they were only out-gained by about 70 yards as well.
SM played nearly as good with losses to Nebraska, Mississippi State and Marshall. The Marshall game was lost because of 4 costly turnovers 31-10.
Third year starter at QB for SM is going to show up in this game. WKU has a more experienced team over all with 16 returning starters, but this one could be decided by a point or 2.
