NCAA Plays: 2015 by FUqer

[FUqer]

Washington U +3½ at Arizona State


13.26
14.64


30.82 - 24.48


19.06
12.69


27.91 - 24.12


»» SOS ADV = Washington +4.2


»» Defense vs Offense ADV = Washington +6.34
»» Offense vs Defense ADV = Washington +3.79


Model Projection = 33.56 - 24.30 = -9.26 Total = 57.86


»» ATS Value = Washington +3.5 (+12.76)
»» O/U Value = Over 54 (+3.86)




»» 3rd Down % Washington = 36.8%
»» 3rd Down % Arizona State = 44.4%


»» Penalties Washington = 44
»» Penalties Arizona State = 39


»» Penalty Yards Washington = 421
»» Penalty Yards Arizona State = 339


»» Time of Possesion Washington = +9:23
»» Time of Possesion Arizona State = +14:08


»» Common Opponents = USC, Oregon, and Utah


Washington beat USC by 5 on the Road
Arizona St lost by 28 to USC at Home


Washington lost by 6 to Oregon at Home
Arizona St lost by 6 to Oregon at Home


Washington lost by 11 to Utah at Home
Arizona St lost to Utah by 16 on the Road




»» TRENDS and STATS:


Arizona St 9-0 SUATS L9 vs Washington, 5-0 SUATS L5 at Home
team=AZST and o:team=WAS


Arizona St 2-9 ATS L11 games overall
team=AZST


Arizona St 3-7 ATS L10 vs the Conf.
team=AZST and o:C


Home favorites in Conf. games when the line is -4 or less are 10-17 this season for 37%
HF and o:C and line>=-3.5 and season=2015


2014 = 39%
2013 = 41%




Washington 8-1-1 ATS L10 after a loss.
team=WAS and p:L


Washington 6-3-1 ATS L10 as a Road dog
team=WAS and AD


Washington 6-1-1 ATS L8 Conf. games on the Road.
team=WAS and A and o:C


UNDER 11-2 L13 Washington games overall
team=WAS


UNDER 6-0 L6 Washington games after they lost
team=WAS and p:L


UNDER 7-1-1 L9 Washington Conf. games as a dog
team=WAS and D and o:C

[FUqer]

Saturday 11/14

»» Oklahoma +3 at Baylor

________________________________
My first play of the week. I have Oklahoma actually winning by 3.

[FUqer]

Thursday 11/12

»» UL Lafayette +3 at South Alabama

Saturday 11/14

»» Oklahoma +3 at Baylor

________________________________
My first play of the week. I have Oklahoma actually winning by 3.

I have Lafayette -1.65, combine that with S.Alabama being a terrible cover team.

[FUqer]

»» UL Lafayette +3

»» Oklahoma +3
»» New Mexico +30

[FUqer]

Updated Plays for Saturday 11/14

»» Washington +3
»» Oklahoma +3
»» Mississippi St +8
»» New Mexico +30
»» Virginia +14
»» NC State +10
»» Memphis +7


-------------


LEANS:


Illinois +16½
Vanderbilt -3
Kansas St +5½
Purdue +14½

[FUqer]

SATURDAY 11/21


»» Baylor -1
»» Michigan St +13.5
»» USC +4.5
»» Illinois +4.5
»» Rutgers -4.5
»» Purdue +22.5

[FUqer]

SATURDAY 11/21


»» Baylor -1
»» Michigan St +13.5
»» USC +4.5
»» Illinois +4.5
»» Rutgers -4.5
»» Purdue +22.5

10 Point Teasers
______________


Indiana +11
Miami FL +12.5
Penn State +14
______________


Temple +14
Iowa State +14
Houston +1.5
______________


Wisconsin -.5
Navy -3.5
Washington St -4.5
______________


Memphis/Temple Over 47
Michigan/Penn State Over 33
UCLA/Utah Over 46
______________

[FUqer]

WEEK 13

»» Tulsa -6


________________


I got Tulsa -7 according to my YPPlay model and Tulsa -11.5 on my YPPoint model.


Tulane might have a slightly better Home Defense vs the Tulsa Away Defense, but the Tulsa offense has a huge edge over Tulane and should be able to cover the number vs a team they have went 9-1 ATS against. The AAC is also my 2nd best Conference this year at 6-2, after the Big 10.

[FUqer]

»» byu -3

[FUqer]

»» Buckeyes -105

[FUqer]

»» Penn State +11

[FUqer]

»» Marshall +12.5
»» Miami FL +7
»» Toledo -7
»» Houston +1.5

[FUqer]

»» San Jose State +8.5
»» Nebraska +2.5
»» Massachusetts +6.5

[FUqer]

»» ML PAR: Cincinnati + Maryland +238

[FUqer]

+3.28 on the day, puts me back in the black, bahhh

62-56 for +1.78 Units

[snip3r2006]

+3.28 on the day, puts me back in the black, bahhh

62-56 for +1.78 Units

Nice ... Had a + Night too (5-0) ... Lets hit the nhl Bet too !!!

[FUqer]

SATURDAY 12/5

»» North Carolina +4½

[FUqer]

»» USC +4½
»» Iowa +3½

[FUqer]

»» ML PAR: Houston & San Diego St +100

[FUqer]

--> Arizona -7½ -115
--> BYU +115
--> Georgia State +110
--> Ohio/App.State Under 55
--> Arkansas State +105
_________________________


Regular Season = 64-58 for +1.58 Units
_________________________


Arizona vs New Mexico


Solomon should play and thier offense should be too much for New Mexico.
New Mexico will struggle if they have to play from behind.
Arizona is better on 3rd downs and have an advantage in thier FG kicker.
New Mexico is 2-10 SU L12 vs the PAC 12, but both wins were vs Arizona.
The MWC isn't used to the fast paced style of Offense. The last PAC12 team, New Mexico faced, they lost 72-0 to Oregon.
If Arizona can limit turnovers and protect Solomon, it should be a blow out.
Arizona has had plenty of time to prepare for the option.
Motivation could be key and they are playing in New Mexico.
In the end, New Mexico is just too one dimensional for me.
I have a feeling Arizona will blow them out or lose. My numbers have Arizona by 11, but that is all on a big SOS advantage for Arizona. The net numbers have this close to even.
The ATS volume is close, but the books would lose more if New Mexico won SU.


__________________________


BYU vs Utah


I like the matchup with BYU's big WR's vs Utah's smaller DB's. Utah will also be without their best offensive weapon again.
I also think BYU will be playing extra hard for thier coaches, not just Mendanhall.
Utah was ranked in the top 5 earlier in the season and now has to play in one of the first bowl games.
They might be a little disappointed, but they are playing an old rival, so motivation shouldn't be much of a factor.
On the field, I just think BYU is better on Offense and thier defense isn't that far from Utah's.
It will probally be the biggest bet bowl game of the day. The public is on Utah, but the line hasn't really moved.
I have BYU -1.5 without SOS factored in and +2.4 with SOS factored.
Teams that have won SU have covered 90% of the time in the last 5 years. 158-18 ATS


__________________________


Ohio vs Appalachian St


This one is a tough call for me. If it wasn't a bowl game, I wouldn't bet it.
Appalachian St runs the ball 67% of the time, but QB Lamb did have 29 TD passes.
Ohio will also be trying to run the ball but should have a tough time.
Appalachian St shut down the rushing attack of Georgia Southern, so they shouldn't have any problem containing the dual threat QB, Vick.
This is the first bowl game for Appalachian St, and their coach said they plan on having fun with it.
I can't make up my mind on a side, my numbers have Ohio +7.5 with a total of 52.87.
I haven't been good in football this year at Totals, but I think Under is the best bet.


__________________________


Georgia St vs San Jose St


San Jose St will have to travel 3000 miles.
Georgia St is a passing team and San Jose like to run the ball.
Georgia St has proven they can win against run heavy teams.
There is no passing attack in the MWC like Georgia St has.
The MWC is just 2-9 ATS vs the Sub Belt since 2013.
Georgia St coach said his players aren't just happy about reaching a bowl game, they want to win.
San Jose has just 5 wins on the season and one was vs New Hapmpshire.
I like passing teams against MWC, so I'm going with Georgia St and against my numbers that have San Jose by 4.5


___________________________


Arkansas St vs La. Tech


This is another tough call for me. I'm tempted to take La Tech 1st Half and Arkansas St 2nd.
I've seen Arkansas St have some slow starts and big 2nd halves this year.
I think what it comes down to for me is that in an expected high scoring game, I want to take the team that I think is less likely to turn the ball over, Arkansas St.
There is no value on the line, I have Arkansas St .5 favorites without SOS and +1.87 with SOS factored.


____________________________

[FUqer]

--> South Florida +3

[FUqer]

Fade Material Lately

--> Boise St -7
--> Bowling Green -5

[FUqer]

--> San Diego State -1.5
--> Cincinnati/SDST Over 56.5

[FUqer]

In the college game, you have a terrible Cincy defense combined with the Turnovers created by the Aztec defense that should equal a Aztec win. San Diego St also has already played in Hawaii this year and should stay more focused. Cincy hasn't had much success in bowl games.

[FUqer]

--> uconn +5

[Alex Vaile]

I'm with u on it. Should have bet it last nite it was 5 now dropped to 3.

[FUqer]

--> Miami +1.5
--> Washington -8
--> Indiana -2.5


--> Tulsa +14
--> Over 61.5


--> UCLA -5
--> Under 62

[FUqer]

--> Pittsburgh +3
--> Over 52.5


--> C.Michigan +6
_____________________

Pitt beat Georgia Tech but did give up a lot of yards that game. I'm hoping that the extra time will help Pitt figure out how to improve against the option. I still expect a lot of points to be scored.


The MAC always plays Big 10 teams close, and I think 6 points is too much for a C.Michigan team with a pretty good QB.

[FUqer]

--> Air Force +7 -115
--> Baylor +3
--> Texas Tech +7.5

[FUqer]

--> NC State +6
--> Under 61

___________________

I'm struggling in bowl games, beware.

[FUqer]

--> Louisville -3
--> Under 50.5


--> USC -3 -115

[FUqer]

Bowl Summary

Favorites 17-7 SU & 14-10 ATS


Favorites of 3 or less are 7-3 SUATS
(TCU, W.Virginia)


Over 16-8 overall this bowl season


Over 13-4 when line is 3 or higher
(All games but TCU, W.Virginia)


Over 8-2 when line is 5 or higher
(Florida St, Alabama, Tennessee, Ohio State, Stanford, Ole Miss, Georgia, Arkansas)


Over 5-0 when line is 7.5 or higher
(Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas)


B10 now 2-0 SUATS vs P12, both as dogs. (Iowa vs Stanford)


B12 1-0 SUATS vs ACC, Baylor as a dog vs UNC, Over 1-0. (Oklahoma vs Clemson)


SEC 1-0 SUATS vs B12, LSU over Texas Tech, Over 1-0. (Ole Miss vs Oklahoma St)


AAC 2-0 ATS vs ACC, 0-5 ATS in all other bowls, Over 2-0. (Houston vs Florida St)


SEC in half of 12 remaining bowl games, all favorites but one, Florida.


Overall


B10 3-1 SUATS, Over 2-2
SEC 3-1 SUATS, Over 2-2
P12 5-2 SU 4-3 ATS, Over 5-2
B12 1-1 SUATS, Over 2-0
ACC 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS, Over 5-2
AAC 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS, Over 3-4

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Who you on today bud

[FUqer]

--> Clemson +4
--> Alabama -9.5 -115

[FUqer]

This is what I got for the potential Clemson opponent.


Alabama -6.08 vs Clemson (30-24)
Clemson -3.57 vs Michigan St (31-27)