SuicideKings 2013 NCAAF & NFL Thread

[suicidekings]

42) Houston 1H -3 (-107) x1

[suicidekings]

43) LIVE (7-7, 3:11 1Q): Texans -4 (-110) x1

[suicidekings]

Houston penetrates me every time... On or against them...

[suicidekings]

33) Titans +7 (-120) x1
34) Bengals +3 (-113) x1
35) Vikings +4 (-105) x1
36) Seahawks -3 (+100) x0.5
37) LIVE (10-0 Falcons, 1:28 1Q): Saints ML (+191) x0.5
38) Packers ML (+277) x2
39) Cowboys -3 (-122) x1
40) LIVE (1Q 8:50, 3-0 DAL): Under 46.5 (+106) x1
41) NYG/DAL 2H Over 23.5 (-112) x1

5-3-1 (+0.41u)

42) Houston 1H -3 (-107) x1
43) LIVE (7-7, 3:11 1Q): Texans -4 (-110) x1

0-2 (-2.17u)

CFB: 17-11-0 (+2.5u)
NFL: 6-6-1 (-3.73u)
Tennis: 0-2 (-1.52u)

Overall: 23-19-1 (-2.75u)

[suicidekings]

44) Jets +13 (-120) x1

Vereen out. Amendola out. Gronkowski hasn't been ruled out, but is listed as unlikely to play.

[suicidekings]

Rant time:

1) When someone says "I can't believe the ____ are only a _ point favourite (on the road / at home) against _____! What am I missing?", it's probably the most definitive proof I can think of that this person has NO clue what they're doing at all when it comes to sports betting. None. If you're not confident enough in your handicapping to understand how and why the books set the line where they did, and to have a good reason for why you disagree, then the chance of you being the one that's wrong is approaching 100%.

2) Why are people so convinced that "betting against the public" is an effective strategy? They place SO much faith in public betting % when they have little to no idea how those numbers are generated. No one ever seems to include themselves among "the public" either (98%+ of all sports bettors are lifetime losers), or consider the fact that when EVERY handicapping website and tout out there is talking about betting against the public as a strategy, it MIGHT not be the unique information that will turn you into a winner. Think about it.

And the most maddening thing of all, people that see a line come out on Sunday night and start talking about who the public is on 24-48 hours later. What percentage of the total money/bets do you really think have come in by Monday/Tuesday night for a game on the following Saturday/Sunday? And what's the typical demographic of the guys that have made their bets early? You think the "idiot public" is pushing Sunday night openers around, and that these are the guys you want to bet against? Again, think that through for a minute...

[Smutbucket]

thanks for the fantastic rant...its good to know Im not the only one who feels like Im taking crazy pills every time I go on this forum.....Its like an unstoppable force of morons tho....for every 1 good rant like this their will be 100 posts about "fade the public", you cant tell them otherwise or they will call you a "moron" for asking questions like, where do you get your public %'s from. This top secret information is how bookies make big bucks, their lines are set towards the betting public and not necessarily the actual outcome of the game, they will never give this information up....NEVER!

[alexschillig]

My Rant:

1. U might be the smartest bettor I know. lol.
2. Ur not a handicapper.
3. Have a nice day.

Rant time:

1) When someone says "I can't believe the ____ are only a _ point favourite (on the road / at home) against _____! What am I missing?", it's probably the most definitive proof I can think of that this person has NO clue what they're doing at all when it comes to sports betting. None. If you're not confident enough in your handicapping to understand how and why the books set the line where they did, and to have a good reason for why you disagree, then the chance of you being the one that's wrong is approaching 100%.

2) Why are people so convinced that "betting against the public" is an effective strategy? They place SO much faith in public betting % when they have little to no idea how those numbers are generated. No one ever seems to include themselves among "the public" either (98%+ of all sports bettors are lifetime losers), or consider the fact that when EVERY handicapping website and tout out there is talking about betting against the public as a strategy, it MIGHT not be the unique information that will turn you into a winner. Think about it.

And the most maddening thing of all, people that see a line come out on Sunday night and start talking about who the public is on 24-48 hours later. What percentage of the total money/bets do you really think have come in by Monday/Tuesday night for a game on the following Saturday/Sunday? And what's the typical demographic of the guys that have made their bets early? You think the "idiot public" is pushing Sunday night openers around, and that these are the guys you want to bet against? Again, think that through for a minute...

[ATTACH]59932[/ATTACH]

[suicidekings]

45) Texas Tech +3.5 (-112) x1

[Bs1194]

I like it. Weird stuff happens in Lubbock.

[BigdaddyQH]

Rant time:

1) When someone says "I can't believe the ____ are only a _ point favourite (on the road / at home) against _____! What am I missing?", it's probably the most definitive proof I can think of that this person has NO clue what they're doing at all when it comes to sports betting. None. If you're not confident enough in your handicapping to understand how and why the books set the line where they did, and to have a good reason for why you disagree, then the chance of you being the one that's wrong is approaching 100%.

2) Why are people so convinced that "betting against the public" is an effective strategy? They place SO much faith in public betting % when they have little to no idea how those numbers are generated. No one ever seems to include themselves among "the public" either (98%+ of all sports bettors are lifetime losers), or consider the fact that when EVERY handicapping website and tout out there is talking about betting against the public as a strategy, it MIGHT not be the unique information that will turn you into a winner. Think about it.

And the most maddening thing of all, people that see a line come out on Sunday night and start talking about who the public is on 24-48 hours later. What percentage of the total money/bets do you really think have come in by Monday/Tuesday night for a game on the following Saturday/Sunday? And what's the typical demographic of the guys that have made their bets early? You think the "idiot public" is pushing Sunday night openers around, and that these are the guys you want to bet against? Again, think that through for a minute...

[ATTACH]59932[/ATTACH]

1. Most people do not have a clue as to how the books set lines. This is why you see and hear all of the B.S. about "trap" lines. If a line is a "trap", you will not know about it until after you lose.

2. People are idiots. They ARE the Public. They are actually dumb enough to believe this. First, it matters not how many people wager on a team. It is the money that counts. Next, the numbers they get are from ONE shop. Finally, how do they know that the numers they are getting are legit? It is so easy to sucker these people into playing a team by floating out some "erronious" information. You get what you pay for.

3. 99% of the people in here cannot play the opening line tht comes out on Sunday because that is reserved for a shops "high rollers". That is why you will see a difference between "openers" and the line you will be able to play. Example. Louisville opened at -7.5 at at Pinny, but by time aqnyone in here could have played it, the line was already up to 11.5. The fact of the matter is that about 20% of the play comes down on Sunday, but that is, for the most part, the "high rollers" who are playing the openers. The normal rule is "play early or late".

An excellent post. Obviously you know something about wagering on football. GL this season.

[Bs1194]

No live bets for you? Weird!!

[suicidekings]

No live bets for you? Weird!!

Wasn't interested in watching TT/TCU. I actually took the Jets ML (+930) earlier for $50 as an entertainment bet, but I have no real expectation of it coming through. Just hoping for a cheap hedge later. The Pats live line is still -380, so I'd rather just let it ride.

Isolated games are tougher to hit effectively in live betting. I like Saturdays/Sundays the best because that's when books make mistakes.

[suicidekings]

44) Jets +13 (-120) x1
45) Texas Tech +3.5 (-112) x1

2-0 (+2u)

CFB: 18-11-0 (+3.5u)
NFL: 7-6-1 (-2.73u)
Other: 0-2 (-1.52u)

Overall: 25-19-1 (-0.75u)

[Bs1194]

great night bud

[suicidekings]

46) Boise State / Air Force Over 58 (-104) x1

[suicidekings]

46) Boise State / Air Force Over 58 (-104) x1

1-0 (+1u)

CFB: 19-11-0 (+4.5u)
NFL: 7-6-1 (-2.73u)
Other: 0-2 (-1.52u)

Overall: 26-19-1 (+0.25u)

[suicidekings]

47) Nebraska -2.5 (-119) x1
48) Kentucky +14.5 (-114) x1

[suicidekings]

49) Marshall -7.5 (-106) x1
50) Utah -3 (-109) x1

[suicidekings]

51) Indiana -2.5 (-103) x1

[suicidekings]

52) Boston College +15 (-106) x1

[Bs1194]

Good luck this weekend. Win some $$$

[suicidekings]

47) Nebraska -2.5 (-119) x1
48) Kentucky +14.5 (-114) x1
49) Marshall -7.5 (-106) x1
50) Utah -3 (-109) x1
51) Indiana -2.5 (-103) x1
52) Boston College +15 (-106) x1

53) Nebraska ML (-112) x1

[suicidekings]

Good luck this weekend. Win some $$$

Thanks. Good luck to you as well.

[DirtyBird1500]

Any thoughts on Illinois +10 vs Washington?

[suicidekings]

Any thoughts on Illinois +10 vs Washington?

I'd lean to the Illini, but no strong opinion.

[DirtyBird1500]

Thanks for the response. Think I'll probably play it as planned.

[JR007]

got some closing line value on KY, but.........thought they play was a good one

[suicidekings]

got some closing line value on KY, but.........thought they play was a good one

A couple of redzone turnovers kept KY from challenging to win this game. Unfortunate for them, but Bridgewater's 2H performance was stellar. He deserved the win.

Nebraska's the real pain in the ass of the day. Stellar D for most of the first half and then complete self destruction.

[suicidekings]

54) Georgia Tech -7.5 (-110) x1

[suicidekings]

55) Texas A&M ML (+286) x1

[suicidekings]

56) UCF +3.5 (+104) x1

[No coincidences]

56) UCF +3.5 (+104) x1

I'm on this and UConn. Hope the bad #'s I got don't burn me.

Good luck SK.

[suicidekings]

57) Ohio State -12 (-110) x1

[suicidekings]

I'm on this and UConn. Hope the bad #'s I got don't burn me.

Good luck SK.

Check out Marshall, and Ohio's defense on passing downs. Cato is going to light them up tonight.