SuicideKings 2013 NCAAF & NFL Thread

[suicidekings]

Pending
17) South Carolina +3 (-106) x5
24) Florida -2 (-120) x3
25) Kentucky -17 (-110) x1
26) WKU +14 (-123) x1

27) Cincinnati -7 (-115) x1

Also leaning Sooners -21, BYU +7.5, SJSU/Stanford Under 49.5, Michigan -4, Oregon -24, Navy +13, and Arizona -10.5

[suicidekings]

28) WKU 2H ML (+213) x0.5

[suicidekings]

25) Kentucky -17 (-110) x1

1-0 (+1.0u)

24) Florida -2 (-120) x3
26) WKU +14 (-123) x1
27) Cincinnati -7 (-115) x1
28) WKU 2H ML (+213) x0.5

0-4 (-6.48u)

Outgained opponents by 230 yards. 13 turnovers between the three teams... Great start to the day...

(26) & (28) are technically the same wager, but I'll count them as 2 separate ones...

[suicidekings]

29) Oregon -26.5 (-105) x1

This is likely going to be a game where Oregon names their score. At least hopefully it is...

[61Lifetime]

How was your record last year for NCAA and NFL?

[suicidekings]

How was your record last year for NCAA and NFL?

College was solid for most of the season, and then horrible in the bowls. NFL was good in the first half of the season and then tailed off as the lines got tighter. I had a thread for each but was kind of inconsistent in updating the record. It was more of a conversation thread with some plays/writeups. Available if you search, but they're nothing special.

[suicidekings]

30) Oklahoma/WVU Under 54.5 (-114) x1
31) Texas/BYU Under 56.5 (-108) x1

[suicidekings]

32) Michigan -4 (-110) x1

[suicidekings]

22) Li Na +5 games (-102) x1 vs Serena Williams
23) Li Na +1.5 sets (+204) x0.5

0-2 (-1.52u)

17) South Carolina +3 (-106) x5
24) Florida -2 (-120) x3
25) Kentucky -17 (-110) x1
26) WKU +14 (-123) x1
27) Cincinnati -7 (-115) x1
28) WKU 2H ML (+213) x0.5
29) Oregon -26.5 (-105) x1
30) Oklahoma/WVU Under 54.5 (-114) x1
31) Texas/BYU Under 56.5 (-108) x1
32) Michigan -4 (-110) x1

4-6 (-8.86u)

CFB: 17-11-0 (+2.5u)
NFL: 1-1 (-1.15u)
Tennis: 0-2 (-1.52u)

Overall: 18-14 (-0.17u)

Example of how not to scale your wagers. I feel like I re-learn this every year in the first couple of weeks. My results are MUCH better when I flat bet and play a high volume of games instead of trying to pick my spots.

[suicidekings]

33) Titans +7 (-120) x1
34) Bengals +3 (-113) x1

[Smutbucket]

like the bengals a lot too

agreed with flat bets Ive been much more successfull using that formula with only an occasional one or two 2 unit bets a week......

good luck tmrw, thanks for all your writeups and posts in NCAAF forum during offseason they were some good reads!

[JayLA]

33) Titans +7 (-120) x1
34) Bengals +3 (-113) x1

Sk, you're not tempted to buy the hook on Cincy? Thanks for all you do, constantly reading what you have to say.

[suicidekings]

33) Titans +7 (-120) x1
34) Bengals +3 (-113) x1

Vikings +4 (-105) x1

[suicidekings]

Sk, you're not tempted to buy the hook on Cincy? Thanks for all you do, constantly reading what you have to say.

Honestly, I think Cincy wins outright. I considered just playing the ML, but decided to take the small amount of insurance with the +3 in the event of a late FG finish. However I think the Bengals are in much better position to win today than the Bears.

[suicidekings]

33) Titans +7 (-120) x1
34) Bengals +3 (-113) x1
35) Vikings +4 (-105) x1

36) Seahawks -3 (+100) x0.5

Can't help myself...

[suicidekings]

37) LIVE (10-0 Falcons, 1:28 1Q): Saints ML (+191) x0.5

[suicidekings]

38) Packers ML (+199) x1

[suicidekings]

33) Titans +7 (-120) x1
34) Bengals +3 (-113) x1
35) Vikings +4 (-105) x1
36) Seahawks -3 (+100) x0.5
37) LIVE (10-0 Falcons, 1:28 1Q): Saints ML (+191) x0.5

3-1-1 (+1.41u)

Kind of a sad effort from the Vikes on that last drive. Not even really trying to push the ball downfield... But whatever.

[suicidekings]

Sk, you're not tempted to buy the hook on Cincy? Thanks for all you do, constantly reading what you have to say.

Looks like you were correct. I should have invested in the hook after all.

[Smutbucket]

[suicidekings]

38) Packers ML (+199) x1

Adding: LIVE (7-0 Niners, 2:52 1Q): Packers ML (+354) x1

Aggregate Line: Packers ML (+277) x2

[suicidekings]

No worries, bro. We got this one.

I absolutely love the offensive scheme we're seeing from the Packers so far. Their wide receivers are among the best at the NFL in consistently providing blocks for each other downfield. It's going to be Eddie Lacy slipping out of the backfield for the reception with Jones/Nelson/Cobb blocking in front a LOT this season. The SF secondary can't handle 60 minutes of that if Rodgers maintains good tempo.

[Bs1194]

Any leans on the Cowboys tonight?

[suicidekings]

39) Cowboys -3 (-122) x1

I'm a big fan of what the Cowboys have done in the offseason.

[Bs1194]

Unfortunately, I'm a fan of everything the Cowboys do. It's been tough the last couple years. Well 15 years.

[suicidekings]

40) LIVE (1Q 8:50, 3-0 DAL): Under 46.5 (+106) x1

[gs]

the cowboys suck at everything, theres nothing to be a fan about, 16years of going nowhere, 1 playoff win, and jerry jones now the new al davis, playoffs i wish but 8-8 is the reality

[suicidekings]

the cowboys suck at everything, theres nothing to be a fan about, 16years of going nowhere, 1 playoff win, and jerry jones now the new al davis, playoffs i wish but 8-8 is the reality

The change from Ryan's complicated 3-4 to Kiffin's simpler 4-3 defense is a big deal, IMO. The Cowboys' problem has never been talent. It's just been about execution, and the change frees up the players they have to just make football plays instead of worrying about complex schemes. I think at least their defense starts to live up to its potential this season, taking the strain off Romo.

[suicidekings]

40) LIVE (1Q 8:50, 3-0 DAL): Under 46.5 (+106) x1

41) NYG/DAL 2H Over 23.5 (-112) x1

Buying out of this one. Sitting on the Dallas side for now, but not really liking this game at all at this point.

[Bs1194]

Glad to see tony out playing.

[suicidekings]

Glad to see tony out playing.

He's definitely hurt though. Not locating his throws very well and looking pained. He's definitely a tough QB. Just like his broken ribs vs SF 2 years ago.

[suicidekings]

The change from Ryan's complicated 3-4 to Kiffin's simpler 4-3 defense is a big deal, IMO. The Cowboys' problem has never been talent. It's just been about execution, and the change frees up the players they have to just make football plays instead of worrying about complex schemes. I think at least their defense starts to live up to its potential this season, taking the strain off Romo.

And the revamped OL is coming up huge. I think Frederick will ultimately be justified as a 1st round pick.

[Dexter]

CFB: 17-11-0 (+2.5u)
NFL: 1-1 (-1.15u)
Tennis: 0-2 (-1.52u)

Overall: 18-14 (-0.17u)

Example of how not to scale your wagers. I feel like I re-learn this every year in the first couple of weeks. My results are MUCH better when I flat bet and play a high volume of games instead of trying to pick my spots.

then what happens when the ohio st (cfb) game rolls around?

[suicidekings]

then what happens when the ohio st (cfb) game rolls around?

Flat bets for 90% of the season at least. Certainly in the non-conf games of the first 3-4 weeks. There are times when stars align for you and an overhyped team gets way too much love. And then it would be stupid not to load up.

Sounds so degen when I say it like that though, haha.

[suicidekings]

38) Packers ML (+277) x2
39) Cowboys -3 (-122) x1
40) LIVE (1Q 8:50, 3-0 DAL): Under 46.5 (+106) x1

41) NYG/DAL 2H Over 23.5 (-112) x1

2-2 (-1u)

That Packers ML came so close... They definitely played the kind of game I expected though.