SuicideKings 2013 NCAAF & NFL Thread

[Dexter]

pregame and freesportsbet.com has percentages as well, think they are all the same though

Thx JR

[Dexter]

8/31: 8-2 (+9.81U)
CFB: 11-5-0 (+9.36u)

very nice

[Dexter]

SK - what are your thoughts on this Pregame site? Looks like its also of multiple books as VI is....

[suicidekings]

SK - what are your thoughts on this Pregame site? Looks like its also of multiple books as VI is....

The numbers appear to match for the most part. I think it was only the games involving an FCS school that weren't widely available to bet that had no %s yesterday. All the FBS matchups appear to be there. Also, VI is my favourite for the complete, timestamped line histories, which I think tells more than the public numbers.

[Dexter]

The numbers appear to match for the most part. I think it was only the games involving an FCS school that weren't widely available to bet that had no %s yesterday. All the FBS matchups appear to be there. Also, VI is my favourite for the complete, timestamped line histories, which I think tells more than the public numbers.

i use sbr for timestamps on line moves....i am comfortable navigating the layout.

its nice to also know who the public is on in conjunction with looking at the line history...under col/col st appears to be a smart play

[suicidekings]

i use sbr for timestamps on line moves....i am comfortable navigating the layout.

its nice to also know who the public is on in conjunction with looking at the line history...under col/col st appears to be a smart play

True. I sometimes feel like I get too distracted by line movement and public numbers though. When I really just focus on being on the right side of a game, I feel like my performance is much more consistent. The more I get thinking about public numbers, the more I tend to second guess myself, and I'd rather have my handicapping be the more decisive factor in picking games than market analysis.

As for the timestamps, I sometimes find that the SBR line history is incomplete, with the VI one being more detailed. At least it used to be. I'm not sure about it's current state.

[No coincidences]

True. I sometimes feel like I get too distracted by line movement and public numbers though. When I really just focus on being on the right side of a game, I feel like my performance is much more consistent. The more I get thinking about public numbers, the more I tend to second guess myself, and I'd rather have my handicapping be the more decisive factor in picking games than market analysis.

Well said, SK. Well said.

[suicidekings]

17) South Carolina +3 (-106) x5 vs Georgia

[Bs1194]

So happy football is back. Glad to see you're off to another solid start, and Dex! it's good to see ya again.

[suicidekings]

18) Florida State -10 (-111) x1

[suicidekings]

19) LIVE (7-0 PIT, PIT ball, 1st&10 PIT38): FSU -3.5 (-124) x1

[suicidekings]

18) Florida State -10 (-111) x1
19) LIVE (7-0 PIT, PIT ball, 1st&10 PIT38): FSU -3.5 (-124) x1

9/2: 2-0 (+2.0u)
CFB: 13-5-0 (+11.36u), 1 pending

[Dexter]

True. I sometimes feel like I get too distracted by line movement and public numbers though. When I really just focus on being on the right side of a game, I feel like my performance is much more consistent. The more I get thinking about public numbers, the more I tend to second guess myself, and I'd rather have my handicapping be the more decisive factor in picking games than market analysis.

As for the timestamps, I sometimes find that the SBR line history is incomplete, with the VI one being more detailed. At least it used to be. I'm not sure about it's current state.

Well said, SK. Well said.

either of you guys have an opinion into the move at pinnacle from 9.5 to 7.5 in 1 tick on the balt/den game?

[suicidekings]

either of you guys have an opinion into the move at pinnacle from 9.5 to 7.5 in 1 tick on the balt/den game?

Teaser protection. They were expecting to take teasers with the Broncos bought down to under a FG so they left the line at 9.5. I guess they've relaxed a bit or were taking too much BAL money.

[Dexter]

Teaser protection. They were expecting to take teasers with the Broncos bought down to under a FG so they left the line at 9.5. I guess they've relaxed a bit or were taking too much BAL money.

yeah, im not a teaser guy and thought you had mentioned this in the past - wasnt sure what the #'s were...Thx

[Bs1194]

One more night. Tomorrow can't come soon enough

[No coincidences]

Teaser protection. They were expecting to take teasers with the Broncos bought down to under a FG so they left the line at 9.5. I guess they've relaxed a bit or were taking too much BAL money.

This. As far as SU going from 9.5 to 7.5, pretty much dead numbers so basically irrelevant (8, 8.5, 9).

[suicidekings]

One more night. Tomorrow can't come soon enough

Not really sure how I feel about this game though. I think giving Peyton Manning homefield advantage and 7 months to stew over a playoff loss makes betting the Ravens unsavory.

People see the same basic line that was offered last season and forget just how perfectly stars were aligned for the Ravens in their playoff run. Flacco played the games of his career and Boldin & Pitta were unstoppable in the postseason, combining for 36 catches, 543 yards, & 7 TDs. Both gone from the team now. It took a 70 yard bomb to tie the Denver game with 30 seconds left. That was a miracle for the Ravens...

I just feel like I should be laying the -7 (-115) right now with confidence, trusting in Peyton/Fox to start the season off with an authoritative win.

[Smutbucket]

Not really sure how I feel about this game though. I think giving Peyton Manning homefield advantage and 7 months to stew over a playoff loss makes betting the Ravens unsavory.

People see the same basic line that was offered last season and forget just how perfectly stars were aligned for the Ravens in their playoff run. Flacco played the games of his career and Boldin & Pitta were unstoppable in the postseason, combining for 36 catches, 543 yards, & 7 TDs. Both gone from the team now. It took a 70 yard bomb to tie the Denver game with 30 seconds left. That was a miracle for the Ravens...

I just feel like I should be laying the -7 (-115) right now with confidence, trusting in Peyton/Fox to start the season off with an authoritative win.

100% agreed with this was just discussing this with a couple buddies earlier today. I teased it twice instead of laying the 7, I dunno why Im not just laying the 7....also wasnt it 2 bombs in the last 5 min or so too? also I remeber 2 questionable challenges that went in favor of the ravens that shouldnt have in my opinion but I had money on denver in that game so.....glad champ baileys out because hes the one who got burned by torrey smith

[2daBank]

Not really sure how I feel about this game though. I think giving Peyton Manning homefield advantage and 7 months to stew over a playoff loss makes betting the Ravens unsavory.

People see the same basic line that was offered last season and forget just how perfectly stars were aligned for the Ravens in their playoff run. Flacco played the games of his career and Boldin & Pitta were unstoppable in the postseason, combining for 36 catches, 543 yards, & 7 TDs. Both gone from the team now. It took a 70 yard bomb to tie the Denver game with 30 seconds left. That was a miracle for the Ravens...

I just feel like I should be laying the -7 (-115) right now with confidence, trusting in Peyton/Fox to start the season off with an authoritative win.

such a tough gm, feel like line high w all den defensive problems atm i have much more faith in baltys d but feels like they begging for balty money..cant wait till next thu when i can start just auto betting the thu night 1st half unders

gl this season brother..

[Bbfromgpt]

Not just Bailey out they're missing other defensive starters too and of course their best pass rusher from last year. Denver has a ton of problems on D.

[suicidekings]

20) Broncos -6.5 (-125) x1

This just feels like the right side to me.

[Bs1194]

20) Broncos -6.5 (-125) x1

This just feels like the right side to me.

You got a good line. Lets get it.

[suicidekings]

21) BAL/DEN Under 49 (-112) x1

[Dexter]

This. As far as SU going from 9.5 to 7.5, pretty much dead numbers so basically irrelevant (8, 8.5, 9).

Thx...i knew that. ha

[suicidekings]

21) Under 49 (-112) x1

This just feels like the right side to me.

Adding U49 (-117) x1

Aggregate line: U49 (-115) x2

[suicidekings]

20) Broncos -6.5 (-125) x1
21) BAL/DEN U49 (-115) x2

1-1 (-1.15u)

CFB: 13-5-0 (+11.36u), 1 pending
NFL: 1-1 (-1.15u)

Overall: 14-6 (10.21u)

[Bs1194]

Interested in seeing what you're going with tonight.

[suicidekings]

22) Li Na +5 games (-102) x1 vs Serena Williams
23) Li Na +1.5 sets (+204) x0.5

[suicidekings]

Interested in seeing what you're going with tonight.

Nothing, probably. WF vs BC on a Friday night is the definition of a degen game. Two pathetic teams vying to see who can be slightly less terrible for a night. UCF is the only team playing tonight that I respect and laying -24 on the road isn't appealing. Good slate tomorrow, so no need to mess with the games tonight.

[suicidekings]

24) Florida -2 (-120) x3

[suicidekings]

25) Kentucky -17 (-110) x1
26) WKU +14 (-123) x1

[Bs1194]

I'm on WKU pick also.

[suicidekings]

Interested in seeing what you're going with tonight.

Actually, I'm going to watch the start of the game and if BC scores first, I'm going to take the improved line on Wake. WF probably wins this game outright. If WF scores first, I'll just let it go.

[suicidekings]

I'm on WKU pick also.

It's going to be an interesting game. I won't be excited about the Vols until I see Josh Dobbs under center. I love what Petrino does for WKU though.