2013 Mac's Early Leans

[Mac4Lyfe]

Man, I was praying they wouldn't throw an INT there... Nice.

Redemption!

[Mac4Lyfe]

Geno Smith looking a lot better these 2 games then I expected. He looks unorthodox but he's effective.

Jessie asks who should go back in the game, Webb or Mayfield. Come on man, Mayfield needs to sit with his point shaving ass.

Wow, we just got away with a PI and a roughing the passer in the same play for TT. Whew.

[Mac4Lyfe]

TD Jets... Wouldn't it be funny if the Jet's start 2-0?

[wacked]

I say leave in the other guy... what do you have to lose?

lol Freaking Troy missing extra point... lol

[wacked]

TD Jets... Wouldn't it be funny if the Jet's start 2-0?

lol no, I picked PATS in my pick'em league

[wacked]

Tulane, cashed.

[wacked]

OMG, that was a TT fumble, I guess the TCU gods have left the stadium.

[wacked]

Geno Smith looking a lot better these 2 games then I expected. He looks unorthodox but he's effective.

Doesn't look any worse than Dirty Munchy Sanchez.

[Mac4Lyfe]

If his receivers could just catch the ball. Same for the Pat's receivers. This is the worst I've seen receivers play on both sides of the ball like in forever. Very bad football on both sides of the ball.

Doesn't look any worse than Dirty Munchy Sanchez.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Another dropped ball by a Jet receiver. Unreal...

[Mac4Lyfe]

NFL play added... Bolded.

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Selection : Chicago Bears 9/15/2013 10:00AM - (PST) Spread -6 -103 for Game
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[wacked]

Well, Push on Troy +7, no thanks to 4 TOs and that lame missed extra point.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Troy still has life. A huge reversal on 4h down to extend the drive. No timeouts, 1:13 to go down 7 points. Nail biter here.

Edit... INT, game over.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Sorry to hear that. Both teams were scoring at will then Troy stalled out at the end.

but, Push beats Swoosh...

Well, Push on Troy +7, no thanks to 4 TOs and that lame missed extra point.

[ghetto1]

Mac! U a beast Ty...for some reason I can't give u sbr points on my phone

[Mac4Lyfe]

Mac! U a beast Ty...for some reason I can't give u sbr points on my phone

Don't worry about it ghetto... We don't need no points. We gets the loot. Let's cash this bitch...

I'm just glad it worked out for us. I appreciate you trusting me over your own thoughts. I'm humbled.

[Mac4Lyfe]

This TT/TCU game went pretty much to script. Mayfield played okay in the first half but was garbage in the 2nd. We got lucky that he got banged up in order for Webb to come in for the easy cover/ML cash.

What does this mean to LSU and their win over TCU? Kinda devalues that early win.

Some early leans...

Sep 12 CFB [104] TEXAS TECH +3-105 at home versus TCU
I really am starting to warm up to this Baker Mayfield kid for TT. He reminds me of Johnny Football light. This is more of a fade of TCU's offense. I don't think TCU can keep up with TT's scoring. TCU won't have Pachall, Trevone Boykin is starting at QB and I think he will struggle. I've been discounting QB play the last 2 weeks and it's hurt my pocketbook. I think TT jumps on them early and force TCU into passing which will be a disaster.

[9ersPride]

Great job Mac..more power to u bro..got any opinion on Fridays game?

[Mac4Lyfe]

The only thing I hate more than Thursday night college football... is Friday night college football. It's like a house of horrors betting these games. I cannot get a read on this game. I see a slight lean with Boise covering but too little to bet much. I have a slightly better lean on the over 57 but not enough to make it a good play. I'm gonna keep my eye on the line. We may get a hint closer to kickoff. I'll probably make a small first half play just for shits and giggles. Over 30 and BSU -13.5 first half may be worth a shot. We'll see.

Great job Mac..more power to u bro..got any opinion on Fridays game?

[Night-Tripper]

The only thing I hate more than Thursday night college football... is Friday night college football. It's like a house of horrors betting these games. I cannot get a read on this game. I see a slight lean with Boise covering but too little to bet much. I have a slightly better lean on the over 57 but not enough to make it a good play. I'm gonna keep my eye on the line. We may get a hint closer to kickoff. I'll probably make a small first half play just for shits and giggles. Over 30 and BSU -13.5 first half may be worth a shot. We'll see.

The only reason I'm refraining from putting more than 2.5 units on the Broncos tomorrow night, is because I'm afraid they'll call off the dogs early due to their date with Fresno State next week.

[Mac4Lyfe]

1-0 on the NFL tonight and 1-0 on NCAA

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Texas Tech 9/12/2013 4:30PM - (PST) +3.-103 vs TCU

Patriots team total Under 27 -103
---------------------------------------------------


Updated NFL Record...

8-3 (73%)
4-2 (67%) on bolded plays


Updated CFB Record
26-24 (52%)
11-10 (52%) on bolded plays

[Mac4Lyfe]

Which is why I like the first half a bit better. Plus Air Force could get a garbage score late to kill the cover. That Washington beat down has me a little hesitant on BSU.

Either way, I don't want to put enough money to have me sweat. I'm going to watch some HS games tomorrow and don't want to be glued to this game too. We need a little more data on BSU.

The only reason I'm refraining from putting more than 2.5 units on the Broncos tomorrow night, is because I'm afraid they'll call off the dogs early due to their date with Fresno State next week.

[Night-Tripper]

Which is why I like the first half a bit better. Plus Air Force could get a garbage score late to kill the cover. That Washington beat down has me a little hesitant on BSU.

Either way, I don't want to put enough money to have me sweat. I'm going to watch some HS games tomorrow and don't want to be glued to this game too. We need a little more data on BSU.

The Force is with me, and it has whispered that any concern will prove to be without merit.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Don't say Force when they're playing Air Force... lol

The Force is with me, and it has whispered that any concern will prove to be without merit.

[Night-Tripper]

Don't say Force when they're playing Air Force... lol

[allamerican99]

Some early leans...

Sep 12 CFB [104] TEXAS TECH +3-105 at home versus TCU
I really am starting to warm up to this Baker Mayfield kid for TT. He reminds me of Johnny Football light. This is more of a fade of TCU's offense. I don't think TCU can keep up with TT's scoring. TCU won't have Pachall, Trevone Boykin is starting at QB and I think he will struggle. I've been discounting QB play the last 2 weeks and it's hurt my pocketbook. I think TT jumps on them early and force TCU into passing which will be a disaster.

Sep 14 CFB [117] LOUISVILLE -13½-110 at Kentucky
Wow, this line should be +21. Kentucky beats Miami, OH, and suddenly they're a good team? I don't think so. UL let up on them last year and still beat them decisively. I expect UL to move the ball at will and force UK to play their passing game. UL's secondary is still suspect so UK should score some points but they won't be able to keep up in the end. I like UL, especially in the 1st half as they jump on teams early, then let them hang around in the 2nd half. I'm leaning UL first half and game plus the Over 59.5 should be a good play. If UL is blowing UK out at halftime then take UK 2nd half for more profit.


Sep 14 CFB [137] NEVADA +32-110 at Florida State
This line sticks out to me. I see FSU QB reading the press for the last 12 days. Feeling good, getting fat and possibly not focused. FSU's running game is non existent. That's never a good recipe for covering a large line. Nevada is trash but they might be able to extend drives with a balanced offense. Winston is an incredible QB but he's still a freshman. A couple of mistakes and this should be an easy cover.



Sep 14 CFB [155] MISSISSIPPI STA +6½-110 at Auburn
The hot seat can't get any hotter for Dan Mullen. This is a must win for him. This is another game where I trust Russell for Miss St more than Nick Marshall for Auburn. Both these teams want to run the ball. I think Miss St is the better rushing team. I think they're the better passing team to (which isn't saying much). I still think Auburn is garbage. Miss St physically dominated them last year and I think they will again this year. This line is off IMO. Miss State should be favored here. Miss State ML is a solid play here.


Sep 14 CFB [158] ILLINOIS +9½-110 at home vs 19 Washington
West coast team coming East. A lot of points on the road. Illinois may have turned a corner last week. They look fast and strong. I need to look further but this seems a little closer than 9.5



Sep 14 CFB [159] CENTRAL FLORIDA +5-110 at Penn St
Freshman Hackenberg vs UCF's Junior QB Brian Bortles. Penn State barely beat a bad Syracuse team. Hackenberg's numbers are inflated because their opponents couldn't get a pass rush and couldn't cover anyone. I like UCF's defense a little better than PSU and I like that UCF can run the rock and pass while I don't believe in PSU's running game as much. This would not be an upset to me.

Sep 14 CFB [167] VANDERBILT +13-105 at South Carolina
Vandy tends to always play USC tough, even though they very rarely win. Last year was very close but it was also the first game of the season. I still think Vandy is undervalued. They have a solid defense that can protect the pass and they are much more physical than most people think. Vandy has been a little undisciplined which is concerning for what's supposed to be smart players but I think they are still smarting from losing to Ole Miss in week 1 and need this to stay competitve. USC can get real loose with the ball so I see them turning the ball over a few times. Too many points IMO.

Sep 14 CFB [169] TULSA +24½-110 at Oklahoma
I still don't trust OU's offense. 24 seems a lot of points.

Sep 14 CFB [178] RICE -6½-110 vs Kansas
I love this play. Kansas QB Heaps is very good (BYU transfer) but does he have any weapons? I don't trust his receivers which makes Kansas rely more on the run. Add the fact that he's playing on the road, Heaps will have to keep up with a high scoring Rice squad. He'll eventually press and make mistakes. Rice is very undervalued and this is a gift line. This is an early lean and I haven't completely capped this but I'd recommend getting the -6.5 while you can.

Sep 14 CFB [182] PURDUE +20½-110
Purdue has been horseshit this year BUT, I don't trust ND's offense and having to play on the road back to back. Purdue is instilling a new offense so there's a reason for the poor play. I still don't know their identity. Do they want to throw, run, or keep turning over the ball. If they can work the kinks out this could be the game to do it. At home getting 3 TDs when they played ND very well last year on the road.

Sep 14 CFB [190] UTAH -3-120
This is another WTF line. Oregon State has zero running game. Zero, zilch, nada. Good luck passing all game long. Utah much more balanced, much more physical and at home at night. The only reason I haven't hammered this line is because I thought the number would be a lot higher. This could be another Florida Gator trap line, so tread lightly. If the line doesn't move then hedge your bet but I'm putting a good bit of $$ on Utah now and if the line moves up, I'll put a lot more. Right now, this looks very off.

Sep 14 CFB [258] Bethune Cookman -3-110 at FIU
Here's another FCS beating up on a FBS. BCC has a ton of weapons, 3 QBs, 8/9 receivers, RB's. They're going up against a stagnant, horrible FIU offense that can't move the ball in practice. The only advantage FIU has is they are at home. But BCC will bring some folks to this game and this is their superbowl taking down a FBS team. Probably a bolded play here.

Texas A&M +7.5 at home vs Alabama
This may be a fade the public play. Do I trust TAM's defense... Nope. Do I trust Bama's offense... Nope. Do I trust TAM's offense... yep, How about Bama's defense? Not really, against TAM's offense. TAM is going to score points. Can Bama keep up? Can TAM stop the Bama running game? Probably not but I think Bama may stop themselves with mistakes (even a holding call or 2 which they usually never have called). Here's another play where I have to lean with the better QB. I think Manziel can cause a lot more problems than McCarron. I'm hoping the line goes up but I have a feeling it'll be lower at game time. I am heavily leaning TAM first half as they jump out quick on teams, then take Bama 2nd half but we'll see.

Hey Mac..read you plays a lot thanks for the info you produce a good thread..Question do you still like nevada on the road with their qb, rb, ol all injuried and may or may not play. I am with you on the Jamesion hype but I also said that to myself about the Texas tech QB.. Plus I tend to hear Jamesion is used to the hype and just wants to be great? Pittsburgh D had 9 returning starters from last year and werent that bad at the end of the year.. Nevada well there Nevada?

Also most of the spreads you have have moved the other way does that cause you any concern?

Thanks

[Mac4Lyfe]

Thanks AllAmerican... I usually post the plays that I'm leaning. I don't consider it a play until I lock it in. Some plays I'll lock in early to try and get a good line before it's bid up. I'm always paying attention to line movement, I'm always trying to anticipate which way it will go. Last week, UF was a bolded play for me but I also warned that if the line didn't move (which it didn't), to be prepared for a bloodbath, which it was. In the end, if I really like a play, I'm going to play it regardless of movement.

What do you mean most games have moved the other way? By my count so far, 5 of those games have moved in my lean, 3 have moved away from my lean and 4 haven't moved. Either way, the movement in itself does not make it a play or not. I look at a lot of information/data but don't try to get bogged down and miss the intangibles. I try to get an overall feel for a game too. If it was just science then scientist would be filthy rich gambling. So in the end, I don't mind Nevada, Vanderbilt or Texas A&M getting more points if I play them.

Louisville game moving in my favor
Nevada line not moving in my favor
Miss State line in favor
Illinois - no movement
UCF - in favor
Vandy - not in favor
Tulsa - in favor
Rice - no change
Purdue - in favor
Utah - no change
BCC - no change
Texas A&M - not in favor

I'm still leaning Nevada but still doing some research. It's a no play right now but we'll see.

Hey Mac..read you plays a lot thanks for the info you produce a good thread..Question do you still like nevada on the road with their qb, rb, ol all injuried and may or may not play. I am with you on the Jamesion hype but I also said that to myself about the Texas tech QB.. Plus I tend to hear Jamesion is used to the hype and just wants to be great? Pittsburgh D had 9 returning starters from last year and werent that bad at the end of the year.. Nevada well there Nevada?

Also most of the spreads you have have moved the other way does that cause you any concern?

Thanks

[wacked]

Air Force's QB Jaleel Awini is starting his 2nd career game, last week was his first after replacing Kale Pearson, who's out with a knee injury for the year. Air Force was blitzed by Utah St last week 52-20, although it was close at the half 24-13.

As always no AF QB can pass, and with this being the backup, he should just be able to run, but not as well as the starter. I'm sure Boise St is really pissed after getting embarrassed 36-8 (worse defeat in 8 years) to open the year at UDUB. Boise St's QB looked like a kid in a candy store against them as Southwick was 25/40 for a measly 152 yards and 1 INT. Note, The score was 10-6 Washington in the middle of the 3rd, so Boise wasn't able to stay with UDUB in the 2nd half, they wore down tremendously.

I think UDUB is the real deal this year, so the blowout wasn't as bad as it looked, but Boise wasn't ready for the big road game and it was 10-6 in the 3rd, so Boise just was flat and out of gas for that big game to open the year.

Boise is 1-11 in their last 12 games against conference opponents at home ATS, but AF is 1-4 in their last 5 games when getting 15 points in conference.

I think Boise comes back and wins this one but 30. I'd be surprised if AF get 14 points.

Boise -23.5 Game
Boise -6.5 1Qtr but cheapest I see is -135
Boise -13.5 1st Half
AF under 17.5 TT

I don't like the o/u with AF's offense being so bad and not sure when Boise pulls off the hammer.

[Mac4Lyfe]

I like Boise first half -13.5...

Air Force's QB Jaleel Awini is starting his 2nd career game, last week was his first after replacing Kale Pearson, who's out with a knee injury for the year. Air Force was blitzed by Utah St last week 52-20, although it was close at the half 24-13.

As always no AF QB can pass, and with this being the backup, he should just be able to run, but not as well as the starter. I'm sure Boise St is really pissed after getting embarrassed 36-8 (worse defeat in 8 years) to open the year at UDUB. Boise St's QB looked like a kid in a candy store against them as Southwick was 25/40 for a measly 152 yards and 1 INT. Note, The score was 10-6 Washington in the middle of the 3rd, so Boise wasn't able to stay with UDUB in the 2nd half, they wore down tremendously.

I think UDUB is the real deal this year, so the blowout wasn't as bad as it looked, but Boise wasn't ready for the big road game and it was 10-6 in the 3rd, so Boise just was flat and out of gas for that big game to open the year.

Boise is 1-11 in their last 12 games against conference opponents at home ATS, but AF is 1-4 in their last 5 games when getting 15 points in conference.

I think Boise comes back and wins this one but 30. I'd be surprised if AF get 14 points.

Boise -23.5 Game
Boise -6.5 1Qtr but cheapest I see is -135
Boise -13.5 1st Half
AF under 17.5 TT

I don't like the o/u with AF's offense being so bad and not sure when Boise pulls off the hammer.

[ghetto1]

following u 1st half boise mac.

I like Boise first half -13.5...

[alabasterf]

With ya on all three Mac!

[Mac4Lyfe]

^ I'm sorry guys. I was responding to Wacked about his 4 plays. The only one I liked was the first half and that went to shit. I'm at a HS game and can't type real well. Hope BSU wake the fukk up.

[Mac4Lyfe]

15 plays for Saturday... 5 bolded.

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Georgia State +24 First half... vs WVU
Louisville -7.5 First half ... vs Kentucky
Virginia Tech -8.5 ... vs ECU
New Mexico +22.5 ... vs Pitt <--- the +1125 ML has great value
Georgia Tech -8.5 ... vs Duke
Ball State -3 ... vs North Texas
Marshall -7.5 ... vs Ohio
Vandy +14 ... vs USC
Maryland -3 first half ... vs Uconn
Rice -6.5 ... vs Kansas
Rice -3.5 first half ... vs Kansas
ND -18.5 ... vs Purdue
Penn State/UCF under 50.5
BG/Indiana over 63
Texas A&M +290 first half ... vs Alabama
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A lot of hooks hanging out on these games. Buy some of them down if you can just in case.

[Mac4Lyfe]

1 NFL play... Bolded

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NFL Football Selection : New Orleans Saints 9/15/2013 1:05PM - (PST) Spread -3 -113 for Game
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Somebody talk me off the ledge here? Is Josh Freeman playing? If he is then Tampa is at a decided advantage. I'm checking the wires to make sure they didn't pick up Dan Marino or John Elway??/ Freeman equals points for New Orleans. This guy couldn't even wake up on time for their team picture and people are betting money on him?

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000243221/article/josh-freeman-apologizes-for-missed-buccaneers-photo

A confident, comfortable Josh Freeman addressed the media Thursday after coach Greg Schiano revealed that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback had overslept and missed a team photo session last week.

"Basically I overslept," Freeman explained. "Point blank."
Freeman said the incident is something he feels "badly about" and it's "upsetting," but he's ready to move on from it. He insisted the missed photo session and other "fairly isolated" tardiness had nothing to do with losing his status as a team captain.
In fact, a convincing Freeman firmly believes he has the support of his teammates.
"I think Vincent Jackson deserves every bit of the captain spot," Freeman said. "I feel like the talk about me not being a captain kind of takes away from the honor of those guys being captains. Do I want to be captain? Yeah, sure. But it's not something that's going to make or break anyone."
Asked if he trusts Schiano, Freeman replied, "I do. Undoubtedly." The quarterback added that he has "100 percent confidence" that Schiano would not rig the ballot box on the captains' vote.

[Hawaii]

15 plays for Saturday... 5 bolded.

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Georgia State +24 First half... vs WVU
Louisville -7.5 First half ... vs Kentucky
Virginia Tech -8.5 ... vs ECU
New Mexico +22.5 ... vs Pitt <--- the +1125 ML has great value
Georgia Tech -8.5 ... vs Duke
Ball State -3 ... vs North Texas
Marshall -7.5 ... vs Ohio
Vandy +14 ... vs USC
Maryland -3 first half ... vs Uconn
Rice -6.5 ... vs Kansas
Rice -3.5 first half ... vs Kansas
ND -18.5 ... vs Purdue
Penn State/UCF under 50.5
BG/Indiana over 63
Texas A&M +290 first half ... vs Alabama
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

A lot of hooks hanging out on these games. Buy some of them down if you can just in case.

So is the rice full game vs. kansas now not a bolded play? I know you had both the Utah and Rice full games as bolded plays earlier in the week. Does that still stand?

Thanks!