College football betting recap, and early futures

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  • Chance Harper
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 07-20-07
    • 788

    #1
    College football betting recap, and early futures
    College football betting recap, and early futures

    Florida's Tim Tebow missed out last season on his second Heisman Trophy, but he will get another crack at the 25-pound bronze sculpture this next fall after he announced his decision to return to the Gators. Tebow will also get a shot at being a third college championship ring in the process, and the Gators are the early favorites to do just that with USC, Texas, Ohio St and Oklahoma filling out the Top 5.

    Tim Tebow is coming back for more.

    The former Heisman winner is now a two-time college champion, after leading the Florida Gators (-5½) to a 24-14 victory over the Oklahoma Sooners Thursday night at the BCS title game in Miami. Just like he did in their SEC title game against Alabama, Tebow calmly led the Gators down the field and threw the spread-covering touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter to put the game out of reach.

    Florida finished the 2008 season with the most profitable record in the league at 11-2 ATS (12-1 SU). And Tebow's decision to stay in school for one more year gives the Gators the shortest 2009 championship betting odds on the futures market at +175. The second team on the odds list is the USC Trojans, who dusted off the Penn State Nittany Lions 38-24 as 10-point favorites at the Rose Bowl. The Trojans finished 12-1 SU and 7-6 ATS; they'll take another crack at the national championship with QB Mark Sanchez, who threw four TD passes against Penn State to up his season total to 34 with just 10 interceptions.

    The Texas Longhorns (12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS) must have enjoyed some schadenfreude at Oklahoma's expense. Texas beat the Ohio State Buckeyes 24-21 in a thrilling Fiesta Bowl, and although the 'Horns couldn't bag the cash as 8-point faves, they did move up to No. 4 in the year-end AP rankings, one spot ahead of the Sooners. Texas is also No. 3 on the 2009 futures market at +800, ahead of Ohio State at +1000 and OU at +1200.

    If you want to bet on the best team in the nation, though, you're out of luck. At least, that's the opinion of those who have followed the Utah Utes this season. They finished undefeated at 13-0 (8-3-1 ATS) with a convincing 31-17 whitewash of the Crimson Tide (-9½) at the Sugar Bowl. That got Utah 16 of the 65 first-place votes on the final AP poll, but not nearly enough to unseat Florida. The Utes are unceremoniously lumped in with the field at +1500 on the futures market, and with the BCS structured the way it is, it's hard to envision a Mountain West team or any other mid-major getting a shot at the national championship.

    The odds don't look too promising for members of the ACC and the Big East, either. Those two conferences were all about depth this year – especially the ACC, where Virginia Tech (10-4 SU, 6-7 ATS) carried the day in a 20-7 triumph over the Cincinnati Bearcats (-2½) at the Orange Bowl. The Hokies are +1500 to go all the way in 2009; Cincinnati falls to +8000 even though coach Brian Kelly announced he'd return to the club after rumors he'd bolt for a bigger program. That leaves the USF Bulls as the top Big East team on the futures market at a feeble +4000.

    This was the biggest bowl season yet with 34 games, including the inaugural EagleBank Bowl (won by the Wake Forest Demon Deacons) and St. Petersburg Bowl (won by South Florida). Underdogs, the traditional kings of the college bowl season, split the cash at 16-16-1 ATS on a record of 11-22. “Home” teams were the big play at 23-11 SU and 21-12-1 ATS (63.6 percent), and the under was a very tasty 20-13-1 (60.6 percent).

    None of those results put a dent in the numbers for the full season, however, as all the common betting splits failed to make a profit in 2008. The betting lines for the total were incredibly tight with the over checking in at 351-350. Away faves came closest to the break-even mark of 52.4 percent (factoring in the vigorish) with a 130-121-3 ATS record, or 51.8 percent. We hope you were able to wring a profit out of these numbers this season and look forward to even bigger returns in 2009.
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