I capping these games based on opening lines I could find. My personal site hasn't made available any game except the BCS games. I know some of you worry about phamtom lines but these are from Vegasinsiders.
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I am attempting something different for the bowls than I did for regular season. All season long I selected a limited amount of games. For the bowls though I am attempting to cap every game. I will list plays on all games as well as write-ups. I caution you though there are too many variables that are in play with bowl games. You have finals, coaches interviewing for other jobs, awards, and basically in many cases no common opponents to aide in comparing teams. I always say to never tail someone blindly but that is never more important than at bowl time.
Saturday December 20, 2008
11:00AM
Eagle Bank Bowl Washington D.C.
Navy vs Wake Forrest
Record:
Navy 8-4 (6-5ATS)
Wake Forrest 7-5 (5-6ATS)
Trends:
Navy is 7-3 ATS in last 10 games against the ACC.
Wake Forrest is 17-7 ATS vs a team with a winning record.
Head to Head:
Wake Forrest is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS. Navy did win this season 24-17 at Wake.
Common Opponents:
Navy 31 Duke 41
Duke 30 Wake Forrest 33
Offense:
Navy averages 25.4ppg on the road.
Wake Forrest averages 16ppg on the road.
Defense:
Navy allows 24ppg on the road.
Wake Forrest allows 15.8ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
Navy is 6-7-1 SU all time in bowls. They are playing in their 6th consecutive bowl game where they are just 2-3 SU in the previous 5.
Wake Forrest is 5-3 SU in bowls. They are playing in their 3rd straight bowl where are 1-1 SU in the previous 2.
X-FACTOR:
Many people might see this as an easy game to predict. I’m not one of those people. This game has a lot of variables. For me this game comes down to the games played earlier this season. Yes there are a couple different players on the field this time around due to injuries then and now. In that game Navy out rushed the Deacons 292 to 43. Wake Forrest naturally passed for more yards 270 to 51 but that doesn’t stand out as much because everyone is going to have more passing yards against Navy. The other stat that sticks out was turnovers where Wake Forrest lost there as well 6 (4 interceptions 2 fumbles) to 2 (2 fumbles). Navy also won the time of possession and were more efficient on 3rd down conversions. Naturally you wouldn’t expect the same turnover situation simply based on the high number. What you can anticipate though is for Navy to continue to do what they always do and run the ball. There is plenty of History between these two schools and Wake knows they have to prepare to stop the run. They couldn’t do it the first time and I’m not convinced they can do it this time. The deciding factor for me here though goes back to the turnovers. Even with 6 turnovers it was a 24-17 game. Navy couldn’t stop Wake from scoring, Wake stopped themselves.
Computer Program:
Wake Forrest by 2.5
Play:
Wake Forrest -3
Saturday December 20, 2008
2:30PM
New Mexico Bowl Albuquerque N.M.
Fresno St vs Colorado St
Records:
Fresno St 7.5 (2-10 ATS)
Colorado St 6-6 (6-5 ATS)
Trends:
Fresno St is 10-29 ATS in the last 39 games overall.
Head to Head:
Colorado St is 6-4 SU and ATS. Teams haven’t played since 2006.
Impressive Victories:
You can hardly say either team had an impressive victory this season. Fresno St did win the opening game of the season at Rutgers 24-7 but Rutgers started the season pretty bad.
Colorado St didn’t have a key win during the season. They might have gotten a motivational lift in scoring with BYU in a 45-42 loss.
Offense:
Fresno St averages 30.6ppg on the road.
Colorado St averages 22.4ppg on the road.
Defense:
Fresno St allows 32.7ppg on the road.
Colorado St allows 36.6ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
Fresno St is 10-7 SU in bowl games according to College Football Poll site first appearance in 1945. CSTV site has them 11-8 SU first appearance in 1937. Last appearance in 2007.
Colorado St is 4-7 SU in bowl games. Last appearance in 2005.
X-FACTOR:
You can’t make this game interesting even if you have a degree in marketing. It’s a match-up between two teams that weren’t very good. Fresno St is the better of the two but also the more disappointing team as well. The Bulldogs had high hopes for the season and starting the season off with a win at Rutgers initially looked like a very impressive win until we all saw how sluggish Rutgers began the season as a whole. I expect Colorado St to come into this game full of emotion and put forth a decent effort. Trouble being that the effort put forth is only supported by so much talent.
Computer Program:
Fresno St -.5 so at -3 we have no value based on statistics.
Play:
Fresno St -3
Fresno St/Colorado St over 59.5 (I am terrible at totals)
Saturday December 20, 2008
4:30PM
St. Petersburg Bowl St Petersburg FL
Memphis vs South Florida
Records:
Memphis 6-6 (5-5-1 ATS)
South Florida 7-5 (4-7 ATS)
Trends:
Over is 7-3-1 ATS in Memphis last 11 non-conference games.
Head to Head:
Teams are 2-2 SU and Memphis is 2-1 ATS. Haven’t played since 2004.
Common Opponents:
Central Florida 28 Memphis 21
South Florida 31 Central Florida 24
Louisville 35 Memphis 28
South Florida 20 Louisville 24
Offense:
Memphis averages 22.8ppg on the road.
South Florida averages 21ppg on the road.
Defense:
Memphis allows 28.8ppg on the road.
South Florida allows 17.3ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
Memphis is 3-2 in bowl games. Last appearance 2007.
South Florida is 1-2 in bowl games. This will be there 4th consecutive bowl game.
X-FACTOR:
South Florida has to be one of the most frustrating teams to wager on. They have a tendency to play above their heads at times and then just when you think they should roll they have a completely dismal performance. Generally this is the result of how Matt Grothe plays. When he is on he very talented but then at other times it’s like he just absolutely doesn’t have a clue. For the season he has thrown 15 touchdowns which isn’t bad. On the flipside though he has also thrown 14 interceptions. South Florida is very banged up and even though we still have almost two weeks till the game there are players that are still not gonna be ready to go. It’s not a home game but is being played in the state of Florida so there should be a slight home field type of atmosphere which should help because the Bulls have performed at their worst on the road.
Computer Program:
South Florida -11.2 so at -13 we have no value.
Play:
Memphis +13 (Hunch Play)
Saturday December 20, 2008
8:00 PM
Las Vegas Bowl Las Vegas Nevada
BYU vs Arizona
Records:
BYU 10-2 (3-8 ATS)
Arizona 7-5 (7-5 ATS)
Trends:
BYU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games.
Arizona is 6-2 ATS vs a team with a winning record.
Head to Head:
Teams are 1-1 SU. BYU is 2-0 ATS.
Common Opponents:
UCLA 0 BYU 59
UCLA 10 Arizona 31
BYU 28 Washington 27
Washington 14 Arizona 48
Offense:
BYU averages 29.3ppg on the road.
Arizona averages 37.2ppg on the road.
Defense:
BYU allows 31.2ppg on the road.
Arizona allows 29ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
BYU is 9-15-1 SU in bowl games. They are playing their 4th consecutive bowl game.
Arizona is 12-11-1 SU in bowl games. They are playing in their 5th consecutive bowl game.
X-FACTOR:
Initially I was curious as to why a 10-2 team was an underdog to a 7-5 team. Then I started doing the breakdown and it became very clear. Vegas was not setting a trap, Arizona was definitely the better team. When you look at what these teams did against common opponents it’s not close. BYU can score and everyone knows that but they have a difficult time stopping anyone either. Arizona, while not turning heads with defense can play some. If BYU pulls off the upset here it won’t be a shocker but I can’t place a wager on a hope and a Mormon Prayer either.
Computer Program:
BYU -5.2 so at +3.5 we have significant value with BYU. Problem here is the computer gives a lot of credit to rankings in the polls.
Play:Arizona -3.5 (would suggest buying the hook to 3 if it doesn’t get bet down)Comment -
Appreciate it WAL.You do a nice job!I'm pounding RICE-3 and LATECH+2.5Comment -
I haven't even started those games yet. I have done more work on these games than any all year long. There needs to be extra effort when you don't have as much common opponent games to work with. Plus all the computer ranking stuff has to be tweaked to adapt as well. If I can manage to come out a couple games over .500 I think I will be happy since I am doing every game. Not smart at all but a good challenge. I'll not pound any of the games though. If anything some of the games I will play as half units. Till the big ones. Might up the wager on a few of those.Comment -
Oh,I know.I was just acknowledging your work and saying thanx.I'm not necessarily going to pound anything either.I'm just fired up a bit after that nice Carolina victory.Believe me,I got a whole lot of work to do in the coming weeks myself.I'll take every game and break the matchups down.In the past,what has worked well for me,is the Conference vs Conference matchups.Comment -
waiting on ur analysis guru-tComment -
Sunday December 21, 2008
8:00PM
R&L Carriers Bowl New Orleans LA
Troy vs Southern Miss
Records:
Troy 8-4 (7-4 ATS)
Southern Miss 6-6 (7-5 ATS)
Trends:
Troy is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
Southern Miss is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs the Sun Belt Conference.
Common Opponents:
UL Lafayette 3 Troy 48
UL Lafayette 21 Southern Miss 51
Arkansas St 9 Troy 35
Southern Miss 27 Arkansas St 24
Offense:
Troy averages 28.6ppg on the road.
Southern Miss averages 25.8ppg on the road.
Defense:
Troy allows 29.3ppg on the road.
Southern Miss allows 25ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
Troy is 1-1 SU in bowl games. Last appearance was in 2006.
Southern Miss is 8-10 SU in bowl games. They are playing in their 7th consecutive bowl game.
X-FACTOR:
Troy has had a very good season and have earned their way into a bowl game. Southern Miss started the season out almost as bad as possible losing 6 of their first 8 games. They were able to turn things around late in the season and finished out winning 4 straight games. This game is about as much of a coin flip as you’re gonna get.
Computer Program:
Troy -2.67 so at -4 we don’t have any value.
Play:Troy -4* (Coin Flip)
Tuesday December 23, 2008
8:00PM
San Diego County Credit Union Bowl San Diego California
TCU vs Boise
Records:
TCU 10-2 (8-3 ATS)
Boise 12-0 (7-3-1 ATS)
Head to Head:
Boise is 1-0 SU. They played a bowl game in 2003.
Offense:
TCU averages 25.2ppg on the road.
Boise averages 38.2ppg on the road.
Defense:
TCU allows 13.2ppg on the road.
Boise allows 16.5ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
TCU is 10-13-1 SU in bowl games. They are playing in their 4th consecutive bowl game and have won 3 straight.
Boise is 5-3 SU in bowl games. They are playing in their 7th consecutive bowl game.
X-FACTOR:
This is our first really good bowl game. Sure it would have been better if we had Boise vs Utah since they are both undefeated but TCU is absolutely a deserving opponent. We have heard all year long what an outstanding defense TCU has. In fact they have the 2nd ranked defense in the nation. For Boise we automatically assume they have outstanding offense, which they most definitely have a great offense but when you look at the numbers there is barely a difference in the defense compared to TCU. Boise is famous for two distinct things, the blue field and having played in one of the all time greatest upset games in the history of college football when they beat Oklahoma in the 2006 Fiesta bowl. If for some reason you didn’t know that you will be bored to death with it between now and the BCS Title game as you will hear of it over and over. Boise is a solid team on both sides of the ball. I personally though Boise would open as the favorite here. I’m a little shocked that they are the dog though. My computer program had TCU favored but I would have expected Vegas to assume the public would be all over Boise since they are undefeated. Not the case and kind of surprises me.
Computer Program:
TCU -2.67 so at -2.5 we are right on the mark.
Play:
TCU -2.5* (This game won’t be wagered till right before game time as I am anticipating much movement in this line.)
Wednesday December 24, 2008
8:00PM
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl Honolulu Hawaii
Notre Dame vs Hawaii
Records:
Notre Dame 6-6 (6-6 ATS)
Hawaii 7-6 (7-5 ATS)
Trends:
Under is 11-1 ATS in Notre Dames last 12 road games.
Hawaii is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Head to Head:
Notre Dame is 2-0 SU but Hawaii is 2-0 ATS.
Offense:
Notre Dame averages 13.4ppg on the road.
Hawaii averages 29.3ppg at home.
Defense:
Notre Dame allows 22.8ppg on the road.
Hawaii allows 29.2ppg at home.
Bowl History:
Notre Dame is 13-15 SU in bowl games. Notre Dame is 0-9 SU in bowl games since 1994.
Hawaii is 5-3 SU in bowl games. They are playing in their 3rd consecutive bowl game. All Hawaii’s bowl have been played on the island with the exception of last years Sugar Bowl.
X-FACTOR:
To say Notre Dame is undeserving of a bowl game at 6-6 would be hypocritical I guess since we think its ok for some other schools to be in with the same record. It’s only undeserving because we expect more from Notre Dame or we are just so tired of hearing about them period. Expectations were high coming into this season and they soon ended becoming the same disappointing outcome in so many games for the Irish. On the flip though is Hawaii. I doubt many thought they would be bowl eligible after losing their coach and all everything quarterback. They proved many wrong though with sheer determination. Many teams come to the island and fail during the regular season due to all the travel and distractions. It becomes even more of a distraction at bowl time. I think the main factor here though is Notre Dame NEEDS this game. Yes it is the Hawaii Bowl and yes they are playing Hawaii but the Irish truly NEED a win here.
Computer Program:
Notre Dame -4.69 so at +2.5 we have significant value here.
Play:
Notre Dame +2.5* (need my head examined)
Friday December 26, 2008
7:30PM
Motor City Bowl Detroit Michigan
Florida Atlantic vs Central Michigan
Records:
Florida Atlantic 6-6 (7-5 ATS)
Central Michigan 8-4 (6-5 ATS)
Trends:
Under is 7-3 ATS in Florida Atlantic’s last 10 games overall.
Central Michigan is 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 home games.
Offense:
Florida Atlantic averages 13.3ppg on the road.
Central Michigan averages 28.3ppg at home.
Defense:
Florida Atlantic allows 28ppg on the road.
Central Michigan allows 24.5ppg at home.
Bowl History:
Florida Atlantic is 1-0 SU in bowl games. They won their only ever bowl game last year against Memphis.
Central Michigan is 1-3 SU in bowl games. They are playing in their 3rd consecutive bowl game.
X-FACTOR:
I have looked and looked and then I looked again trying to find a way Florida Atlantic could cover this game, not win mind you just cover. I couldn’t find anything worthy enough though. I’ll admit it’s very difficult when they have no common opponents. I have tried to compare teams they have played with one another and that hasn’t really worked either. I have seen both teams play several games this season and just from what I have seen on the field Central Michigan has practically every advantage. Add to that it being a home game basically and I personally think this one gets ugly. Anything can happen and if it does I’ll most certainly be in the majority losing money on this game.
Computer Program:
Central Michigan -8.18 so at -6.5 we have enough value here.
Play:
Central Michigan -6.5* (this is one of the few games I might upgrade the units on)Comment -
I am posting most games in order of appearance but this is one of the games I am most anticipating. I am totally going on gutt here because the computer doesn't like my play and the stats won't support my play.
Friday January 2, 2009
2:00PM
Cotton Bowl Dallas Texas
Ole Miss vs Texas Tech
Records:
Ole Miss 8-4 (8-3 ATS)
Texas Tech 11-1 (5-4-1 ATS)
Trends:
Ole Miss is 8-2 ATS against a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-2 ATS in Texas Techs last 9 home games.
Head to Head:
Teams are 2-2 SU but Texas Tech is 3-1 ATS.
Offense:
Ole Miss averages 26.6ppg on the road.
Texas Tech averages 42ppg at home.
Defense:
Ole Miss allows 23.6ppg on the road.
Texas Tech allows 23.8ppg at home.
Bowl History:
Ole Miss is 19-12 SU in bowl games. They haven’t played in a bowl game since 2003.
Texas Tech is 10-20-1 SU in bowl games. They are playing in their 9th consecutive bowl game.
X-FACTOR:
As disappointed as I am with many of the match-ups in the bowl this game is one I am completely excited about. First off personally I like the dynamics in play here. Secondly it is our first indicator of the BIG GAME to come, it is our first look at SEC defense vs Big 12 offense. Yes Texas A&M played Arkansas during the regular season but I choose to not accept that as a good indicator. On the surface Texas Tech is the better team. They have a higher ranking a better record and an explosive offense. It very well may be more than just a surface appearance as they could possibly blow Ole’ Miss out. While that could happen I don’t think it will. Ole Miss had a couple so so performances during the season and they did lose 4 games overall but they rose to the occasion in their biggest two games of the season. They managed the upset on the road in the Swamp against Florida and they played a great game in a 4 point loss on the road at Alabama. We all know about Graham Harrell and his abilities but Ole Miss has a decent quarterback themselves in Jevan Snead. He’s no Graham but he has all the skills to be playing at the next level. They also bring a formable defense into this game. All in all this game may very well be much closer than many people will expect. The numbers don’t support it, but I would not be shocked at all if the Rebels pulled off a big upset yet again this season.
Computer Program:
Texas Tech -9.82 so at -5.5 you have good value.
Play:
Ole Miss +5.5* (this is absolutely a huge hunch play and not advised)Comment -
Guys, even negative feedback is better than no feedback at all. I am always interested in what others are thinking.Comment -
Many of these games are very hard to make plays on, so far I like the following 5 plays below:
Wake Forest Demon Deacons -3
BYU Cougars +3
Troy State Trojans -4
TCU Horned Frogs -2½
Hawaii Warriors -1½
I'll be posting the rest of my Bowl Plays later this week!
GL to everyone!Comment -
This is what I got so far
Navy 1u
Fres. St 1u
Mem. 1u
Ari/BYU - going to get a better look will post later
Troy 1u
Boise St. .5u could change
Rainbows .5u could change
C.Mich 2u
TT .5u could changeComment -
Thanks for your insight and work that you have shared. My 1u plays are my strong plays .5 are weak plays and like yourself I like C. Florida alot I want be making many 2u plays in the hard to cap bowl games.GL to you this bowl season sir
Comment -
Saturday December 27, 2008
1:00PM
Meineke Car Care Bowl Charlotte North Carolina
West Virginia vs North Carolina
Records:
West Virginia 8-4 (4-7 ATS)
North Carolina 8-4 (6-5 ATS)
Trends:
West Virginia is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs the ACC.
North Carolina is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs a team with a winning record.
Head to Head:
North Carolina is 1-0 SU and ATS. Played a bowl game in 1997.
Common Opponents:
Rutgers 17 West Virginia 24
North Carolina 44 Rutgers 12
West Virginia 35 UConn 13
UConn 12 North Carolina 38
Offense:
West Virginia averages 20.4ppg on the road.
North Carolina averages 27.5ppg for the season.
Defense:
West Virginia allows 18.8ppg on the road.
North Carolina allows 20.3ppg for the season.
Bowl History:
West Virginia is 12-15 SU in bowl games. They are playing in their 7th consecutive bowl game and have won 3 straight.
North Carolina is 12-13 SU in bowl games. This is their first bowl appearance since 2004.
X-FACTOR:
Pat White has had a great career at West Virginia. If this came down to one player White is the type of player that some might hang their hats on. Very talented athlete is White. It’s more than a single player though is involves an entire team, offense and defense. The offense can be argued either way but basically even out. The defensive edge goes to North Carolina. Experience is another even category. The final push for North Carolina other than playing basically at home is in coaching. In my mind Butch Davis has the edge here and North Carolina caps off a very nice season with a Car Care victory.
Computer Program:
North Carolina -3.1 so at a pk we have value.
Play:
North Carolina pk* (note, this game opened as North Carolina -1.5 and has moved to a pick so we will have to watch the action here closely.)
Saturday December 27, 2008
4:30PM
Champs Sports Bowl Orlando FL
Wisconsin vs Florida St.
Records:
Wisconsin 7-5 (5-6 ATS)
Florida State 8-4 (5-4-1 ATS)
Trends:
Under is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 non-conference games.
Offense:
Wisconsin averages 26.6ppg on the road.
Florida St. averages 32.7ppg for the season.
Defense:
Wisconsin allows 24ppg on the road.
Florida St allows 20.8ppg for the season.
Bowl History:
Wisconsin is 10-9 SU in bowl games. They are playing in their 7th consecutive bowl game.
Florida St is 20-14-2 SU in bowl games. They are playing in their 27th consecutive bowl game.
X-FACTOR:
I might be missing something very important here but unless Florida St gets half their team suspending prior to kickoff I can’t see them not dominating this game. Not that FSU is spectacular this season but Wisconsin is so very at best average. Nothing is a given but this one just looks so easy it is scary.
Computer Program:
Florida St -8.3 so at -4.5 we have value here.
Play:
Florida St -4.5* (expect this one to go up)
Opinion:
Wisconsin/Florida St under 52.5
Saturday December 27, 2008
8:00PM
Emerald Bowl San Francisco CA
Miami vs California
Records:
Miami 7-5 (5-6 ATS)
California 8-4 (9-3 ATS)
Trends:
Under is 6-2 in Miami’s last 8 bowl games.
Cal is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Head to Head:
Miami is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. Teams last met in 1989.
Offense:
Miami averages 28ppg on the road.
California averages 33.3ppg for the season.
Defense:
Miami allows 29.3ppg on the road.
California allows 20.2ppg for the season.
Bowl History:
Miami is 18-13 SU in bowl games. Didn’t make a bowl appearance last year.
California is 9-8-1 SU in bowl games. They are playing their 6th consecutive bowl game.
X-FACTOR:
Miami has had glimpses this season of having a very bright future. They are loaded with talented athletes but the problem is they are so young. Everyone has said it all year long but it is true, they are a year or two away from returning to the power they once were. I would be incline to think that is California takes this game seriously they should be able to win this game easily.
Computer Program:
California -1.4 so at -7 we have no value.
Play:
California -7*Comment -
I appreciate it Jackpot. BOL on your plays as well.Comment -
GL wal...Comment -
appreciate it pags.Comment -
Sunday December 28, 2008
8:00PM
Independence Bowl Shreveport LA
Northern Illinois vs LA-Tech
Records:
Northern Illinois 6-6 (6-5 ATS)
LA-Tech 7-5 (5-6 ATS)
Trends:
Under is 19-7-1 in Northern Illinois last 27 games overall.
LA-Tech is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs the MAC.
Head to Head:
LA-Tech is 5-1 SU and ATS.
Offense:
Northern Illinois averages 25.8ppg on the road.
LA-Tech averages 25.2ppg for the season.
Defense:
Northern Illinois allows 22ppg on the road.
LA-Tech allows 24.8ppg for the season.
Bowl History:
Northern Illinois is 2-1 SU in bowl games. First appearance since 2006.
La-Tech is 1-2-1 SU in bowl games. Fist appearance since 2001.
X-FACTOR:
Thanks to mid-week ESPN football we had an opportunity to witness Northern Illinois play a couple of games this season. Have to admit in those games no-one was very impressed. Earlier in the season they had a couple of moral victories in a 4 point loss at Tennessee which at the time seemed like something to hang your hat on, but as the season unfolded Tennessee proved to be a huge disappointment. They also had a 4 point loss at Minnesota to start the season. Their defense has played tough all year long for the most part only allowing 45 points once and that was on the road at Ball State. The problem for the most part has been offensive production. They have been inconsistent in scoring and have had trouble with turnovers at very critical times in games.
La-Tech had a nice season overall. They had a good win at home against Fresno State but we all know this has not been the same Fresno team this season. A huge advantage head to head over the years goes to LA-Tech. I realize players come and go and coaches change hats but sometimes schools maintain the edge over one another regardless of the characters in place.
Computer Program:
Northern Illinois -3.5 so at -1.5 we do have minimal value.
Play:
LA-Tech +1.5* (would advise a pass on this game)
Monday December 29, 2008
3:00PM
Papa John’s Bowl Birmingham AL
NC State vs Rutgers
Records:
NC State 6-6 (9-2 ATS)
Rutgers 7-5 (7-4 ATS)
Common Opponents:
NC State 41 North Carolina 10
North Carolina 44 Rutgers 12
South Florida 41 NC State 10
Rutgers 49 South Florida 16
Offense:
NC State averages 20.2ppg on the road.
Rutgers averages 30.2ppg on the road.
Defense:
NC State allows 23ppg on the road.
Rutgers allows 22ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
NC State is 12-10-1 SU in bowl games. First appearance since 2005.
Rutgers is 2-2 SU in bowl games. They are making their 4th consecutive bowl appearance.
X-FACTOR:
Both teams are bringing nice win streaks into this game. NC State has won 4 straight and Rutgers has won their last 6 in a row. This is a difficult game to cap in so many ways. First you really have to decide which team is better based on the conferences they play in. While much has been said about the ACC being down I think another perspective on that is that there was so much parity in that conference. No one team was outstanding but I think an argument could be made that they were all pretty decent. As for the Big East the conference will garner little respect from the outside. Louisville was terrible, South Florida while showing glimpses of being very good really is just an average inconsistent team. Pittsburgh is a solid football team and Rutgers dominate win over them on the road is a real feather in the cap if you decide to play on Rutgers. Something tells me I should be making a play on Rutgers here but seep down I think NC State is battle tested throughout the year against better opponents.
Computer Program:
Rutgers -1.9 so at -6.5 we have no value.
Play:
NC State +6.5*
Sunday December 29, 2008
8:00PM
Alamo Bowl San Antonio TX
Northwestern vs Missouri
Records:
Northwestern 9-3 (6-5 ATS)
Missouri 9-4 (5-7 ATS)
Head to Head:
Teams are 1-1 SU and ATS but they haven’t met since 1987.
Common Opponents:
Illinois 10 Northwestern 27
Illinois 42 Missouri 52
Offense:
Northwestern averages 22ppg on the road.
Missouri averages 39.4ppg on the road.
Defense:
Northwestern allows 17.8ppg on the road.
Missouri allows 37.8ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
Northwestern is 1-5 SU in bowl games. First appearance since 2005.
Missouri is 11-14 SU in bowl games. They are making their 4th consecutive bowl appearance.
X-FACTOR:
Initially I thought Missouri was the right side here without even looking at the numbers. I was discrediting Northwestern on sheer bias. After looking at the numbers though Northwestern should absolutely not be taken lightly here. They will be a quality opponent in more ways than one. They have a very good defense. They certainly are capable of putting forth as good and probably better effort than did Illinois earlier this season. Missouri on its own merits makes Northwestern a live dog here simple based on the way they played down the stretch. While Missouri can certainly puts points on the board and do it in quick fashion they also tend to be lax on the defensive side and allow points to be put up against them. I think many bettors will tend to think what I was thinking initially when looking at this game. Missouri has a high powered offense and scores points in bunches. I think they will think Northwestern only looks impressive because the Big 10 can’t score points. While this on the surface is true as far as point production is concerned it is also misleading. This game more than a lot of these bowl games really comes down to who is more focused. If Missouri is pissed about the way that played to end the season and try and make a statement here they are capable of doing so in good fashion, but if they are less than 110% focused on this game and this game alone not only could Northwestern cover they could pull off the upset.
Computer Program:
Missouri -6.8 so at -13 we have no value here.
Play:
Northwestern +13 (like Missouri to win Northwestern to cover)
Northwestern/Missouri over 66* (I am terrible with totals)Comment -
This is a great breakdown of information WAL's. I know I'm early but- what's your breakdown of the Iowa-South Carolina match-up. I have a strong hunch in this one and want your analysis on it. Best Wishes- MMComment -
Tuesday December 30, 2008
4:30PM
Humanitarian Bowl Boise Idaho
Nevada vs Maryland
Records:
Nevada 7-5 (5-6 ATS)
Maryland 7-5 (5-6 ATS)
Trends:
Under is 6-2 in Maryland’s last 8 games overall.
Offense:
Nevada averages 37ppg on the road.
Maryland averages 13.6ppg on the road.
Defense:
Nevada allows 34.5ppg on the road. (Missouri hurt the average by hanging 69 on them)
Maryland allows 24.6ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
Nevada is 3-6 in bowl games. They are making their 4th consecutive bowl appearance.
Maryland is 9-11-2 in bowl games. They are making their 3rd consecutive bowl appearance.
X-FACTOR:
Not a game I am looking forward to seeing and certainly wasn’t interested in capping. When you are trying to compare teams from different conferences it’s always difficult, when those teams can’t be compared with common opponents or even styles of play it becomes almost impossible. So now we have to try and determine was the competition faced by one team better than that of the other. The ACC certainly had the most parity of the conferences but none of the teams were considered offensive juggernauts. We know they can score points out in the WAC the question now becomes can they play enough defense. Against a Georgia Tech I would say no they couldn’t but against a very inconsistent Maryland team I think they have a good chance.
Computer Program:
Maryland -3.27 so at +1.5 if you choose Maryland you have good value.
Play:Nevada -1.5*
Tuesday December 30, 2008
8:00PM
Texas Bowl Houston Texas
Western Michigan vs Rice
Records:
Western Michigan 9-3 (5-6 ATS)
Rice 9-3 (8-4 ATS)
Trends:
Over is 9-1 in Western Michigan’ last 10 non-conference games.
Over is 13-3 in Rice’s last 16 games as a favorite.
Offense:
Western Michigan averages 27.6ppg on the road.
Rice averages 51.6ppg at home.
Defense:
Western Michigan allows 31.5ppg on the road.
Rice allows 28.3ppg at home.
Bowl History:
Western Michigan is 0-3 in bowl games.
Rice is 4-4 in bowl games.
X-FACTOR:
I think this is a great bowl game. It should be one of the most entertaining games at least. Points should be in excess here. Both teams have very talented quarterbacks and neither defense has really been focused on stopping the opponent. It is a home game for Rice here and that will be the edge if there was a doubt.
Computer Program:
Western Michigan -.83 so at +3 you have some value.
Play:
Rice -3*
Tuesday December 30, 2008
8:00PM
Holiday Bowl San Diego CA
Oregon vs Oklahoma St
Records:
Oregon 9-3 (6-6 ATS)
Oklahoma St 9-3 (8-3 ATS)
Trends:
Oklahoma St is 9-3 ATS in last 12 games overall.
Common Opponents:
Oregon 63 Washington St 14
Oklahoma St 39 Washington St 13
Offense:
Oregon averages 40ppg on the road.
Oklahoma St averages 28.3ppg on the road.
Defense:
Oregon allows 28ppg on the road.
Oklahoma St allows 27.4ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
Oregon is 8-13 in bowl games. They are making their 4th consecutive bowl appearance.
Oklahoma St is 12-6 SU in bowl games. They are playing in their 3rd consecutive bowl game, winning their last two.
X-FACTOR:
Alright, this is a great game. Well I guess that remains to be seen but it sizes up on paper as a really entertaining ball game. Oregon has been impressive this season only falling California and USC in the conference and that upset loss (to some) against Boise. Oklahoma St on the other hand had an equally good season losing only to the top 3 in the conference, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. Both these teams can light up the scoreboard as well. Oklahoma has the edge in defense and that may be the key here. If they can force a couple of stops and throw in a turnover or two then they should be able to pull off the win. This game has 45-41 kind of feel to it.
Computer Program:
Oklahoma ST -3.68 so at -3.5 we have no value.
Play:Oklahoma St -3.5* (suggest buying the hook)Comment -
Wednesday December 31, 2008
12:00PM
Armed Forces Bowl Fort Worth TX
Air Force vs Houston
Records:
Air Force 8-4 (7-4 ATS)
Houston 7-5 (4-7 ATS)
Trends:
Air Force is 8-2 ATS in their last 8 vs Conference USA.
Air Force is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
Houston is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Head to Head:
Air Force is 1-0 SU and ATS. They played on 9/13/08.
Common Opponents:
Air Force 31 Houston 28
Colorado St 17 Air Force 38
Houston 25 Colorado St 28
Offense:
Air Force averages 24ppg on the road.
Houston averages 34.3ppg on the road.
Defense:
Air Force allows 20ppg on the road.
Houston allows 38.5ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
Air Force is 8-9-1 SU in bowl games. This is their 2nd straight appearance.
Houston is 6-10-1 SU in bowl games. They are playing in their 4th consecutive bowl game. They have lost 8 straight bowl games dating back to 1981.
X-FACTOR:
In the Wake Forrest vs Navy write-up I made mention of how a team can better prepare themselves a second time around and correct some of the mistakes that may have lead to a loss against a team. I still believe that to be true but sometimes a team just has your number. Not that there is any significant history between these two teams but there is definite history for Houston in bowl games. For whatever reason, match-ups or motivation it seems like Houston just doesn’t come prepared. One thing you can always count on is Air Force will be prepared. Another thing you can count on is they will put points on the board. Houston has an offense to win this game but I’ll take my chances with the team that I’m confident will be wanting to play.
Computer Program:
Air Force -3.4 so at +2.5 we have significant value.
Play:
Air Force +2.5*
Wednesday December 31, 2008
2:00PM
Sun Bowl El Paso TX
Pittsburgh vs Oregon St
Records:
Pittsburgh 9-3 (6-6 ATS)
Oregon St 8-4 (8-3 ATS)
Trends:
Under is 7-3 in last 10 games when Pittsburgh is an underdog.
Oregon St is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Head to Head:
Oregon St is 1-0 SU and ATS. Last played in 2002.
Offense:
Pittsburgh averages 32.2ppg on the road.
Oregon St averages 26.2ppg on the road.
Defense:
Pittsburgh allows 22.8ppg on the road.
Oregon St allows 24.7ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
Pittsburgh is 10-14 SU in bowl games. This is their first appearance since 2004.
Oregon St is 7-4 Su in bowl games. This is their 3rd consecutive bowl game. They have won 4 straight bowls.
X-FACTOR:
This is one of the more difficult games to cap. It is also one of the most intriguing games for me. I think these are two very good teams that love to run the ball and do it very well. Pittsburgh finished the season on a high note beating UConn who many thought would win the conference. Oregon St had the upset that kept USC from playing for the National Title this year. This game comes down to who stops the run better and who has more weapons to throw at the other. We know Pitt has done well stopping the run as has Oregon St for the most part. I tend to think Oregon St has a slight edge in supporting cast. I would love to see the Panthers get the win here and will not be shocked if they do but I’m thinking the safer play is the Beavers.
Computer Program:
Oregon St -.5 so at -3 we don’t have any value.
Play:
Oregon St -3* (HUNCH PLAY)
Wednesday December 31, 2008
3:30PM
Music City Bowl Nashville TN
Boston College vs Vanderbilt
Records:
Boston College 9-4 (6-5 ATS)
Vanderbilt 6-6 (7-5 ATS)
Trends:
Over is 9-2 in Boston College last 11 games overall.
Boston College is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 bowl games.
Under is 7-2 in Vanderbilt last 9 games overall.
Vanderbilt is 6-2 ATS vs a team with a winning record.
Common Opponents:
Boston College 24 Wake Forrest 21
Vanderbilt 10 Wake Forrest 23
Offense:
Boston College averages 24.3ppg on the road.
Vanderbilt averages 17.8ppg at home.
Defense:
Boston College allows 24ppg on the road.
Vanderbilt allows 20.5ppg at home.
Bowl History:
Boston College is 13-6 SU in bowl games. They are making their 10th consecutive appearance and have won 8 in a row SU.
Vanderbilt is 1-1-1 SU in bowl games. They haven’t played in a bowl games since 1982.
X-FACTOR:
We scoff when a .500 team makes a bowl appearance generally but how can you not be happy that Vanderbilt at 6-6 is finally getting back to a bowl game. Yes they don’t get to experience it in some sweet location but they are at least playing a post season game. Usually you’re lucky if you get a team truly motivated to be playing in a pre-New Years bowl but in this case you can take it to the bank that Vanderbilt will be stoked and highly motivated. Unfortunately that is where the feel good scenario ends though. Not only is Boston College the better of the two teams the Eagles are one of the few teams that take bowl games seriously. Vanderbilt should be proud of what they accomplished this season but unless there is a late coming Christmas miracle they don’t have a shot here.
Computer Program:
Boston College -7.9 so at -3.5 we have value here.
Play:
Boston College -3.5**** (very rare 4 unit play here)
Wednesday December 31, 2008
6:00PM
Insight Bowl Tempe AZ
Minnesota vs Kansas
Records:
Minnesota 7-5 (7-4 ATS)
Kansas 7-5 (6-5 ATS)
Trends:
Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Kansas is 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
Offense:
Minnesota averages 27.8ppg on the road.
Kansas averages 35ppg on the road.
Defense:
Minnesota allows 22.4ppg on the road.
Kansas allows 39.4ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
Minnesota is 5-7 SU in bowl games. Last played in 2006.
Kansas is 5-6 SU in bowl games. This is their 2nd straight bowl appearance and have won two straight.
X-FACTOR:
Have to admit I really know very little about either team. I have seen Kansas play twice this season once at South Florida where they looked terrible and against Missouri where they looked really good. I didn’t get an opportunity to watch Minnesota but looking through the season they don’t have an impressive win on their resume and do have a couple questionable losses. If you’re only as good as your last game Kansas is coming off a win over Missouri while Minnesota is coming off a 55-0 loss to Iowa.
Computer Program:
Minnesota -2.6 so at +10 we have incredible value here.
Play:
Minnesota +10 (don’t like this play just trusting the program this time)
Wednesday December 31, 2008
7:30PM
Chick-fil-A Bowl Atlanta GA
LSU vs Georgia Tech
Records:
LSU 7-5 (2-9 ATS)
G-Tech 9-3 (7-2-1 ATS)
Trends:
LSU is 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
G-Tech is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Head to Head:
LSU is 1-0 SU and ATS. Last played in 200.
Common Opponents:
Georgia 52 LSU 38
G-Tech 45 Georgia 42
Mississippi St 24 LSU 34
Mississippi St 7 G-Tech 38
Offense:
LSU averages 25.3ppg on the road.
G-Tech averages 30.8ppg at home.
Defense:
LSU allows 30ppg on the road.
G-Tech allows 16.4ppg at home.
Bowl History:
LSU is 20-18-1 SU in bowl games. They are playing in their 9th consecutive bowl game. They have won their last 3.
G-Tech is 22-14 SU in bowl games. They are laying in their 12th consecutive bowl game and have lost their last 3.
X-FACTOR:
LSU has had a really bad season. Yes they lost players and so they were a young team but I doubt anyone thought they would look as bad at times on defense as they have. Quarterback play has been weak but that part was expected. At 8-4 I think Tiger fans would have been satisfied but the 7-5 mark has to be disappointing. On the flip Georgia Tech has had a very impressive season. New coach, new system and yet they beat teams they weren’t supposed too and won 9 games which had to shock even their diehard fans. This game is another one where I am looking for anything that gives an indication that LSU can cover but I simply can’t find it. Anything is possible and if it happens I lose.
Computer Program:
G-Tech -6.8 so at -4 we have some value.
Play:
Georgia Tech -4 *Comment -
Thursday January 1, 2009
11:00AM
Outback Bowl Tampa FL
Iowa vs South Carolina
Records:
Iowa 8-4 (7-4 ATS)
South Carolina 7-5 (5-5-1 ATS)
Trends:
Under is 10-1 in Iowa’s last 11 non-conference games.
Offense:
Iowa averages 31.4ppg on the road.
South Carolina averages 18.4ppg on the road.
Defense:
Iowa allows 14.6ppg on the road.
South Carolina allows 30.4ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
Iowa is 11-10-1 SU in bowl games. They last played in 2006 and have lost the last two they have played.
South Carolina is 4-9 SU in bowl games. They last played a bowl game in 2006.
X-FACTOR:
I really don’t know much about Iowa except they have a first rounder running back and they ruined Penn St’s chance at a National Title game. I do know a little about South Carolina and the ole’ Ball Coach. The misconception is that South Carolina has this great defense. In truth they have an outstanding defensive end and they play “ok” defense but it really isn’t that great when you actually look at the scoring numbers from the opponents this season. You can throw out the 56 that Florida hung on them because there were more factors at play there, like a very short field the entire first half for Florida. While the defense isn’t all-world it is like I said ok and they should do a decent job of containing the run. The problem here is South Carolina’s lack of a signal caller. Spurier has tried switching quarterbacks like he used to do at Florida but one is really no better than the other. This game could go either way but if you’re looking for a shootout I’m thinking you’ll be disappointed. The total in this game is at 44 and if it is a clean game then that is about the correct number. The only way I see this going over is if there are multiple turnovers leading to easy points.
Computer Program:
Iowa -3.6 so at -3.5 we have no value.
Play:
Iowa -3.5*
Thursday January 1, 2009
1:00PM
Gator Bowl Jacksonville FL
Clemson vs Nebraska
Records:
Clemson 7-5 (4-6 ATS)
Nebraska 8-4 (6-6 ATS)
Trends:
Clemson is 2-7 ATS vs a team with a winning record.
Nebraska is 4-11 ATS vs a team with a winning record.
Offense:
Clemson averages 16.8ppg on the road.
Nebraska averages 37.5ppg on the road.
Defense:
Clemson allows 22.2ppg on the road.
Nebraska allows 33.5ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
Clemson is 15-15 SU in bowl games. They are making their 4th consecutive bowl appearance and have lost their last two.
Nebraska is 22-22 SU in bowl games. They haven’t played since 2006.
X-FACTOR:
The game looks pretty simple from a statistical standpoint but again we have to compare conferences that played different style of football and we have no common opponents. We do know that expectations for Clemson were high this year and that didn’t work out so well. The coaching situation caused more problems but at the end it did look like the turn for the better was beginning. Nebraska on the other hand did improve this year and those Husker fans have to be feeling like the days are numbered till they return to glory. Might be more days than the fans expect but a change is certainly noticeable. Both teams are ending the season with 3 straight wins. Really can’t which wins or losses are more impressive or more damaging. Pretty much a coin toss here. I know what the program says but in this game I will probably go with my gut.
Computer Program:
Clemson -1.5 so at -3 we have negative value.
Play:
Nebraska +3*
Clemson/Nebraska over 56*
Thursday January 1, 2009
1:00PM
Capital One Bowl Orlando FL
Michigan St vs Georgia
Records:
Michigan St 9-3 (6-6 ATS)
Georgia 9-3 (3-7-1 ATS)
Trends:
Georgia is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl games.
Head to Head:
Georgia is 1-0 SU and ATS. They played a bowl game in 1889.
Offense:
Michigan St averages 32.6ppg on the road.
Georgia averages 27ppg on the road.
Defense:
Michigan St allows 31.4ppg on the road.
Georgia allows 25.8ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
Michigan St is 7-11 SU in bowl games. This is their 2nd straight bowl game and they have lost their last two.
Georgia is 24-16-3 SU in bowl games. They are playing their 12th consecutive bowl game and have won their last two.
X-FACTOR:
Georgia has an offense that isn’t shy about putting points on the board. They have an NFL quarterback an NFL running back and a true freshman receiver that will be a first rounder after his sophomore year. The problem has been their defense. They can’t seem to stop anyone else from scoring. Fortunately for them the offense is better than the defense is bad. Michigan St has had a respectable season but they are over match in this contest. Georgia will put the points on the board and I have to think the defense will be able to manage a couple of stops along the way.
Computer Program:
Georgia -2.89 so at -7.5 we have negative value here.
Play:
Georgia -7* (buy the hook)
Thursday January 1, 2009
5:00PM
Rose Bowl Pasadena CA
Penn St vs USC
Records:
Penn St 11-1 (7-3-1 ATS)
USC 11-1 (6-6 ATS)
Trends:
Penn St is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
USC is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs the Big 10.
Head to Head:
Teams are 3-3 SU and ATS.
Common Opponents:
Oregon St 14 Penn St 45
USC 21 Oregon St 27
Penn St 13 Ohio St 6
Ohio St 3 USC 35
Offense:
Penn St averages 31.8ppg on the road.
USC averages 37.5ppg for the season.
Defense:
Penn St allows 11.2ppg on the road.
USC allows 7.8ppg for the season.
Bowl History:
Penn St is 26-12-2 SU in bowl games. They are making their 4th consecutive bowl appearance and have won their last three in a row.
USC is 29-16 SU in bowl games. They are making their 8th consecutive bowl appearance and have won their last two.
X-FACTOR:
Where to begin? Everyone knows USC is a major deal in college football. Every year they are in the hunt for a National Title. They have had their share of the limelight from dominating the PAC 10 to the Heisman Trophy candidates and winners. They are that damn good. Penn St on the other hand used to be a force to be reckoned with. They went in the tank and haven’t been much of the threat in recent years but all that changed this season. Once again Penn St rose to national prominence and was in the hunt to be in the big game until they went to Iowa. Through all the wins leading up to that lone loss they still received no respect. Mainly because they play in the Big 10 and everyone not a fan of that conference has been put off because of Ohio St’s short comings in the Championships of years past. This is partially unfair to Penn St. they aren’t what Ohio St was. They are a talented football team with a head coach that brought water to Moses and the Fighting Hebrews of old. Ok so Joe pa isn’t that old but if he and Bobby Bowden don’t retire soon both schools are gonna have to start playing in domes to prevent the breeze from blowing them away. USC is basically playing a home game here and we have already seen what they did to Ohio St earlier this season. Penn beat Ohio St as well and while their victory was much closer it was a conference game at Ohio St. No doubt USC has a very talented defense and they will need it as they will be tested. Penn St has a very talented Offense and can do things Ohio St was not capable of doing. This comes down to want to. Who wants this more. Will it be USC’s defense that shines or will Joe Pa show the nation that the Big 10 isn’t an automatic win?
Computer Program:
USC -1.47 so at -10 we have negative value.
Play:
Penn St +10* (I personally think an upset this way comes)
Thursday January 1, 2009
8:00PM
Orange Bowl Miami FL
Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Records:
V-Tech 9-4 (5-7 ATS)
Cincinnati 11-2 (6-6 ATS)
Head to Head:
V-tech is 4-3 SU. Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS.
Offense:
V-Tech averages 23.4ppg on the road.
Cincinnati averages 25ppg on the road
Defense:
V-Tech allows 22.9ppg on the road.
Cincinnati allows 26.3ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
V-Tech is 7-14 SU in bowl games. They are playing in their 16th consecutive bowl game and have lost their last two.
Cincinnati is 5-4 SU in bowl games. They are playing in their 3rd straight bowl game and have won 3 in a row.
X-FACTOR:
This Virginia tech team has been sort of inconsistent through the season. At times they have looked as good as ever and then in other instances they have looked very bad. One thing that is definitely missing this season is their play on special teams. Known for years as the best in the nation they have been no more than average. Cincinnati has had a very impressive season. I haven’t seen them play but the number do tell the story that they are pretty consistent on both sides of the ball. V-Tech has the edge on defense but the offense might struggle some. Cincinnati will score but can they come up with the essential stops needed to pull off the victory?
Computer Program:
V-tech -2.4 so at +2 we have some value.
Play:
Virginia Tech +2* (would advise a pass on this game)Comment -
Wal's - i Love the work you are doing with these games. One other factor to look at: coaches who get their team ready and those who do not. Do you have some stats on the coaches bowl records themselves? Last year's bowl teams who did not look ready to play: U.Conn, Nevada (pathetic performance), Az.St., South Florida (stunk), and Oklahoma (yes- Stoops!). Bowl teams from last year who were ready to play- ECU (holtz), Texas, Oregon, Missouri, Kansas, and Georgia. Lets call WV a one year fluke. Your thoughts pleaseComment -
Meat, once I am done with the remaining games I will see what I can find on that. I will make admendments to the games that could be best effected by those results if I am able to find something substantial. There is already alot I mean ALOT of work going into what I have so far but what you are asking for is definately something of value. I will do what I can.Comment -
[
Play:
Boston College -3.5**** (very rare 4 unit play here)
I already have over 2,000 placed on BC, I agree fullyComment -
Guru-T: sorry to offend ya on that one my friend. You're one of those proud Mountaineer fans us Michigan folk keep hearing about. Heh- hats off to WVU for beating Oklahoma on that game- they we're faster, stronger, and hungrier than the Sooners that night. WV also had the Rich Rod motivation going the entire month before the game as Stoops golfed in Arizona expecting a blowout. In my opinion - the current WV coach does not have the players (as you mentioned) nor the factors to help him in this bowl preparation as he takes on a good coach in Butch Davis. Stewart needs more than White and just "being from the great state of West Virginia" to win this game. He seems like a nice man, but since beating Oklahoma, I am not impressed with the work he's done in Morgantown this Fall. Personally I like WV, but hiring coach Stew was a knee-jerk reaction by a group of emotional Mountaineers. Take NC in a pick-em game.Comment -
Oh,I agree completely Meat.I hated it when WV hired Stewart after the Fiesta Bowl.I don't like him one bit.Nice guy but we see what that'll get ya.See Romeo Crennel.Wv jumped the gun hiring him and I actually blame Pat White for it.He stood up there after the Fiesta Bowl and said he should be our coach and WV higher ups listened.This wasn't what was best for WVU.This was all about saving money.They knew they wouldn't have to pay Stew much money.He signed a 6 yr deal worth $550,000 a year.Thats cheap!Stewart acts like he doesn't even know what to do on the sidelines sometime and those god awful interveiws he does make me sick.He'll be a shitty recruiter as we are once again in the toilet.Honestly,I wish they would fire his ass and take Turner Gill.Barkley would really find that interesting seeing how everybody thinks were nothing but a bunch of hicks and rednecks around here!
Comment -
Friday January 2, 2009
5:00PM
Liberty Bowl Memphis TN
East Carolina vs Kentucky
Records:
ECU 9-4 (5-8 ATS)
Kentucky 6-6 (5-6 ATS)
Trends:
ECU is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Head to Head:
Kentucky is 1-0 SU, ECU is 1-0 ATS. Last played in 1993.
Offense:
ECU averages 19.9ppg on the road.
Kentucky averages 14ppg on the road.
Defense:
ECU allows 22.4ppg on the road.
Kentucky allows 24.6ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
ECU is 5-4 SU in bowl games. They are making their 3rd consecutive appearance.
Kentucky is 7-5 SU in bowl games. They are making their 3rd consecutive bowl appearance and have won 2 straight.
X-FACTOR:
East Carolina began the season on fire upsetting both West Virginia and Virginia Tech. They cooled their heels before catching fire again and finishing the season strong winning 3 straight. Much of the problems for ECU was due to a young team having the early success they did but mainly it was a result of injuries. Young back-ups stepped up and performed well down the stretch. Kentucky wrapped up the season in complete opposite fashion losing their last 3 games. It can be argued that Kentucky actually had a better season than was expected this season it is a given that more than a few were very disappointed in the way the Wildcats played down the stretch. Kentucky should be able to keep ECU to around 17 points in this game but the question is how will Kentucky’s offense perform?
Computer Program:
ECU -2.7 so at -1.5 there is some minimal value.
Play:
Kentucky +1.5*
Friday January 2, 2009
8:00PM
Sugar Bowl New Orleans LA
Utah vs Alabama
Records:
Utah 12-0 (7-3 ATS)
Alabama 12-1 (9-4 ATS)
Trends:
Over is 10-2 in Utah’s last 12 games overall.
Under is 7-1 in Alabama’s last 8 games overall.
Offense:
Utah averages 38.2ppg on the road.
Alabama averages 33.3ppg on the road.
Defense:
Utah allows 14.5ppg on the road.
Alabama allows 19.2ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
Utah is 11-3 SU in bowl games. They are making their 5th consecutive bowl appearance and have won 7 straight bowl games.
Alabama is 30-21-3 SU in bowl games. They are making their 5th consecutive bowl appearance.
X-FACTOR:
Absolutely Utah has had a great season. Anytime a team can get through the season undefeated in today’s game it is an accomplishment deserving of reward. Not BCS National Title type of reward but reward all the same. The truth is though that while the record and the accomplishment is very commendable it isn’t as impressive as a team from a major conference doing it. While they did beat a very good TCU team the only other decent wins on the schedule is BYU and maybe Oregon St. Alabama’s season brought many fans back to the days when they were top dog around the conference and the country. While some of the wins this season left many non-fans doubting just how good this team really was those games were never truly in danger of being a loss. Other skeptics will say they only played one real team in Florida and they lost that game but if not for a couple of key mistakes they very well could be 13-0 right now. Nick Saban is arguably the best coach in college football and you can rest assured that this Tide team will be focused on the mission at hand against the Utes. Utah is impressive and they have had a great season but Alabama is too big, physical and fast to not be dominating in this game.
Computer Program:
Alabama -1.58 so at -10.5 we have no value here.
Play:
Alabama -10* (bought the hook)Comment -
Saturday January 3, 2009
12:00PM
International Bowl Toronto Canada
Buffalo vs UConn
Records:
Buffalo 8-5 (8-4 ATS)
UConn 7-5 (5-6 ATS)
Trends:
Buffalo is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against the Big East.
UConn is 13-4 ATS when playing a team with a winning record.
Head to Head:
UConn is 6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. Last played in 2005.
Common Opponents:
Buffalo 16 Pittsburgh 27
UConn 10 Pittsburgh 34
Offense:
Buffalo averages 31.3ppg on the road.
UConn averages 18.7ppg on the road.
Defense:
Buffalo allows 30.4ppg on the road.
UConn allows 18.5ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
This will be Buffalo’s first ever bowl appearance.
UConn is 1-1 in bowl games. They are playing their second straight.
X-FACTOR:
I would like to say Buffalo surprised plenty of people this season with their record and their play on the field. To say that though is expecting anyone other than myself and other true degenerates have seen them play. Head coach Turner Gill has done an impressive job with the Bulls and is getting his name thrown into the hat at larger schools now. I hope this is being done because he does actually deserve it and not for some ethnic requirement. This man can coach and has a very bright future ahead of him. This bulls team has displayed a never say die resourcefulness all season long. They stepped up big time in the Conference Title game and beat a better Ball St team. UConn has had just a so so season and this game comes down to their desire to play the game. If they show up focused this will be a truly entertaining game. If however, they are just on holiday Buffalo will beat these guys without much struggle. I was concerned that this will be Buffalo’s initial bowl appearance but I think coach Gill will be able to handle his players’ emotions.
Computer Program:
UConn -3 so at -4.5 we have no value here.
Play:
Buffalo +4.5*Comment -
Monday January 5, 2009
8:00PM
Fiesta Bowl Glendale AZ
Ohio St vs Texas
Records:
Ohio St 10-2 (5-6 ATS)
Texas 11-1 (9-3 ATS)
Trends:
Texas is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Head to Head:
Teams are 1-1 SU and ATS.
Offense:
Ohio St averages 28.3ppg on the road:
Texas averages 38.6ppg on the road.
Defense:
Ohio St allows 17.8ppg on the road.
Texas allows 21.6ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
Ohio St is 18-21 in bowl games. They are making their 9th consecutive appearance and have lost their last two.
Texas is 24-21-2 Su in bowl games. This will be their 11th consecutive bowl appearance and have won 4 straight.
X-FACTOR:
Another post New Years bowl game with Ohio St making an appearance. They have played Florida and LSU for National Titles the past two years and now they get to face an angry Texas team in Texas. As bad as it looks for Ohio St they have one small ray of hope, that Texas is disgruntle and not prepared. Ummmmmmmmmmm no. Texas is angry, Texas feels they got shafted, Texas knows in their heart of hearts they should be playing in the National Title game even if the majority of the country agrees with Oklahoma being in I guess. Texas also knows that they still have an outside shot and the AP National Title even though that is basically a moral title is anything. Strange things happens in bowl games but I have a hard time believing Mack Brown and the Longhorns don’t come into this game and put a beating on Ohio St.
Computer Program:
Texas -8.7 so at -9 we have no value here.
Play:
Texas -9*Comment -
Tuesday January 6, 2009
8:00PM
GMAC Bowl Mobile AL
Ball St vs Tulsa
Records:
Ball St 12-1 (9-3 ATS)
Tulsa 10-3 (7-5 ATS)
Trends:
Ball St is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 games overall.
Tulsa is 3-8 ATS against a team with a winning record.
Offense:
Ball St averages 32ppg on the road.
Tulsa averages 38.2ppg on the road.
Defense:
Ball St allows 19ppg on the road.
Tulsa allows 35.7ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
Ball St is 0-4 Su in bowl games. They are playing their 2nd consecutive bowl game.
Tulsa is 6-9 SU in bowl games. They are playing their 4th consecutive bowl game. This is the second straight year playing in the GMAC bowl beating Bowling Green last year.
X-FACTOR:
This game is a total coin flip. Ball St was impressive all the way up to the MAC Conference Title game where a motivated and underrated Buffalo team beat them. Lead by quarterback Nate Davis Ball St has the ability to score on any down from anywhere against anyone. Tulsa is equally capable of putting points on the board. Quarterback David Johnson comes into this game throwing for 3866 yards and 43 touchdowns. Points on the scoreboard shouldn’t be a problem. The winner of this game will be the team able to force a turnover or manage enough defense to force an extra punt of field goal attempt. It’s difficult to back a team that has not proven itself in bowl games like the 0-4 record of Ball St here but they are arguably the better team here. We’ll see if that hold true or not.
Computer Program:
Ball St -4.7 so at -2.5 we have minimal value here.
Play:
Ball St -2.5*Comment -
Thursday January 8, 2009
8:00PM
BCS National Championship Game Miami FL
Oklahoma vs. Florida
Records:
Oklahoma 12-1 (10-2 ATS)
Florida 12-1 (10-2 ATS)
Trends:
Over is 12-1 in Oklahoma’s last 13 games overall.
Florida is 15-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Impressive Accomplishments:
Oklahoma scored 60+ in 5 straight games this season, setting an NCAA record.
Florida beat 6 straight SEC opponents by 30+ points setting an SEC record.
Offense:
Oklahoma averages 55.1ppg on the road.
Florida averages 39.2ppg on the road.
Defense:
Oklahoma allows 28.7ppg on the road.
Florida allows 12ppg on the road.
Bowl History:
Oklahoma is 24-16-1 SU in bowl games. They are playing their 10th consecutive bowl game but have lost their last two. Oklahoma has never lost three consecutive bowl games in their history.
Florida is 16-19 SU in bowl games. They are making their 18th consecutive bowl appearance and second National title game appearance in three years. Florida has not lost a single bowl game without a follow up loss since 1965.
X-FACTOR:
THROW OUT THE STATS. Just forget the Bobby Stoops Oklahoma team has lost two straight bowl games. Forget that Florida lost last year to a Michigan team they should have pummeled. Forget that Oklahoma is in this game only because of a tie break rule that makes little since. Erase from your mind that Florida if not for MULTIPLE mistakes would be in this game at 13-0. Nothing means anything but what is about to take place on this field in Miami on the 8th of January. Two very powerful offenses will collide. Back to back Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks will meet head to head for a National Title for the very first time in history. Two great football coaches will match wits in this epic contest. This game has all the potential to be one of the greatest Championship games of all time. Oklahoma will be without their leading running back DeMarco Murray. Florida’s Percy Hardin will be on the field but it remains to be seen if he’s 100% after suffering a high ankle sprain against FSU. There will still be plenty of playmakers on both teams on the field. This game should come down to 4 key elements.
#1: Special Teams, the winner of this battle has a decided edge. My opinion is Florida has a slight edge here.
#2: Coaching, which coach makes the first mistake either in decision making or play calling? This is questionable because it looks like Mullins will not be calling the offensive plays for Florida. If whoever is calling the plays gets tunnel vision and calls Tabow, Harvin, Harvin, Tebow and doesn’t keep it spread around to ALL the playmakers then Oklahoma has a decided edge here.
#3: Defense, which team is better able to adapt and force some big stops or turnovers. This is difficult to determine because both teams did well on defense throughout the season. Florida certainly has the better stats but it is hard to really compare because of the offensive differences between the conferences. My opinion is Florida has more overall speed and athletes on defense and has a slight edge.
#4: Quarterback, which quarterback is able to motivate his team more and have fewer mistakes. This again is only my opinion but as good of a passer as Bradford is and as valuable to his teams success as he is I’m not sure it’s the same type of value. Tim Tebow has that something special that you can not coach. He has more heart than just about any player I have seen. Certainly he can run the ball effectively. While not nearly the passer that Bradford is he is capable of getting the ball to his receivers. It’s more than that though. It is something that starts deep within the soul and just gushes out and gets into everyone of his teammates. Even though I am biased the edge here goes to Tebow.
Computer Program:
Oklahoma -1.6 so at +3 Oklahoma has good value.
Play:
Florida -3*Comment
