I love meaningless late-game points... Love them.
The Under 54.5 loses by the hook...
The Under 54.5 loses by the hook...
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i couldnt believe my under 48 looked alive with 8 minutes left....then the 2nd half play on gators would have cashed if they got their 3rd onside try. thats just unlucky to miss all 3....turn the page on that game.
i was going to ask you if the sec's performance has you hesitant on bama, but i believe you're with notre dame in that one....i am, and may just leave my -9.5 play for 3u...planned on adding but may just let it go. should probably just hammer the under..the only other super low total (tcu msu) cashed easy...Comment -
Like I said before, one of my most important concepts for making smart plays is to not bet on big spreads because the further we get from pk, the less predictable the outcome is, in my opinion.
I think ND is absolutely good enough to win this game, so laying -9.5 isn't all that appealing. I think I might actually play the ND ML for a little bit and see what happens, or maybe an ND/Under parlay/tease. Something like that.Comment -
That stat doesn't carry much weight with me. Illinois lost as a +13.5 dog in the 2007 Rose Bowl, but were only a 9-4 team. UConn in 2010 was only an 8-5 team and lost as a +14 dog in the Fiesta Bowl. Cincinnati played the Sugar bowl in 2009 without Brian Kelly and had absolutely fallen apart defensively in the last month of the season, giving up 35 ppg in their final 4.
Even ND haters aren't going to call this year's Irish team comparable to these squads. I think there's a LOT of opinion in the placement of this line, and the game will be a close one.Comment -
Teaser: Wildcats +14.5 / Over 67.5 (+100) x1|Comment -
whats the opinion you feel is in a line that rose from 7.5 to 10 when the underdog is an undefeated team? i here what you're saying about an 8-5 BCS team being more likely to get mauled. but whats the tell in this line?
to me - if anything - books are looking to entice the notre dame nation with a double digit spread.Comment -
Maybe, but one sided action several days before the game isn't dangerous. They have more moves to make yet.
I really don't think the books want to hold a big position on what will ultimately be one of the most heavily bet games of the year, between two teams that everyone either loves or hates. There's a ton of bias here. That -7.5 is a phantom line, not available anywhere that matters once the matchup was actually set, and never for any reasonable limit.
Currently, bettors are putting all their effort into getting the best of the number surrounding the 10, without asking if that's a reasonable number for the game. For now the books can take as much ND money as they can get and drop the line a little on gameday to pull in the Bama money. I think they're positioned very well where they are right now, avoiding the 3 and the 7 and sitting around a number that's unlikely to get them middled, and if they have an opinion on the game, it's not reflected in the line as much as their need to play against the large volume of action they'll be receiving.
I think ND keeps it close, with the game ending by a margin of 3-4, one way or the other, and that covering the -10 is very unlikely.Comment -
LIVE (8-0 Ducks, 1Q 9:06)
Wildcats ML (+381) x1Comment -
does kstate usually huddle?Comment -
who you on tonight? been rough so far dudeComment -
im sold on notre dame....going to see how i do tonight before i book it. definitely influenced by guys like you, twizzle and a few others who i respect. the more i look into the game, notre dame did play a very tough schedule and the sec has looked human in this bowl season.Comment -
I think next year I need to rank the bowl games like I do each week during the season. Pick the ones that meet my selection criteria and then completely ignore the rest. There's a handwritten note on the wall by my desk of the teams I had shortlisted back in early December as good bowl plays, and that list would have given me a solid winning bowl season. Got too greedy.
Thanks, buddy. Looking forward to the 2013 season alreadyComment -
Preseason, Phil Steele had ND's schedule as the toughest anyone played this season. Even with Michigan/MSU/USC not quite being the powerhouses they were expected to be, it's still a top 20 schedule. It's going to be really interesting to see how Saban attacks ND in this game. I have to think they're going to see a mix of running Lacy right at the ND front 7 and quick screens outside, grinding out yards early.
My #1 criticism of AJ McCarron is that he doesn't handle pressure well. He normally gets such good protection from his OL that it really shakes him when a defense can get hands in his face and put him on the ground early like Georgia and TAMU did. It'll be critical for the Irish to get to him early.Comment -
suicide, how does this game not go under? id be very surprised if a team hit 21 points here maybe im just too stonedComment -
Agreed. Lots of punts and a run-heavy offense on both sides seem pretty likely. The question is, knowing how hard it is to run against both of these defenses, how aggressive are Kelly/Saban going to be in their playcalling? It wouldn't be crazy for McCarron to take a couple of shots downfield early to help soften up what will likely be a stacked box. I also think that 45 days off is probably going to have a negative effect on the durability of the respective defensive lines over the course of the game.
I think I like the 1H Under 20.5 a little more than the full game total.Comment -
Teaser: Notre Dame +17.5 / Under 48 (-120) x2Comment -
That would be smart. I think we're going to see ND running right at the Alabama defensive front early in the game, however I don't see either team getting rolling offensively too quickly to start as the long layoff will hinder the offensive precision more than the defense. For the no-huddle to be productive, the offense needs to get at least one decent gain of 5+ on 1st/2nd down or they'll be trying to hurry on 3rd and medium/long with a smaller playbook and run themselves right out of their possession. It's really common for a team to try to run a no-huddle early and have it backfire, when really they need to be executing a few plays early to get their confidence rolling and force the defense to cover a broader area. Golson in particular would benefit from a more metered starting pace that gets ramped up once they reach their own 40 or so.Comment -
I played a parlay of ND moneyline and the Under 40.5, purely for SBR points (which I can trade in for cash at various online books).
I actually think the Irish are live to win the game if they have the ball bounce their way a couple of times, but from a value perspective, the +10/10.5 is much more valuable. I can't count the times in the past that I've undercut my profits in games where I loved the spread and decided to put something on the ML as well (ie: 3u on +10, 1u on +300) only to see my team lose by a FG. Two units in profit instead of four if I had just played the spread for 4u. I feel like this is one of those games, where I have a ton of faith in the spread and I'd rather just stick with it. Last game of the year, I don't want to sweat it out.
As it stands, the teasers I have going should be looking good for a fairly wide range of scores in this game. All I really need is neither team to completely shit the bed on defense and for both teams to run the ball a lot and the U48 should be good. From that point I should be able to buy out of one of them if I want with relative ease, trusting the Under to hit.Comment