SK's 2012-13 NCAAF Bowls

[suicidekings]

College football was very good to me this year, and I'm definitely looking forward to the bowls. To kick it off, I've picked out the games I like the most and put together a couple of lottery ticket parlays. Sixteen teams that I'll be playing individually as well at or around their actual spreads, and I think they're the prime sides of the bowl season.

Risking $25 to win $5,274.80

				Pending	12/15/12 1:00pm College Football 201 Nevada +14½ -240* vs Arizona U
				Pending	12/15/12 4:30pm College Football 204 Utah State -2½ -420* vs Toledo
				Pending	12/20/12 8:00pm College Football 206 San Diego State +7½ -265* vs BYU
				Pending	12/27/12 9:45pm College Football 222 UCLA +3½ -200* vs Baylor
				Pending	12/29/12 3:15pm College Football 234 Syracuse +10½ -300* vs West Virginia
				Pending	12/29/12 10:15pm College Football 238 Michigan State +7½ -265* vs TCU
				Pending	12/31/12 12:00pm College Football 240 Vanderbilt -2½ -225* vs NC State
				Pending	12/31/12 7:30pm College Football 246 LSU -1 -190* vs Clemson
				Pending	1/1/13 1:00pm College Football 252 South Carolina -1 -220* vs Michigan
				Pending	1/1/13 1:00pm College Football 254 Georgia -6½ -200* vs Nebraska
				Pending	1/1/13 5:00pm College Football 256 Stanford -1 -275* vs Wisconsin
				Pending	1/1/13 8:30pm College Football 258 Florida State -6½ -300* vs Northern Illinois
				Pending	1/2/13 8:30pm College Football 260 Florida -6½ -340* vs Louisville
				Pending	1/4/13 8:00pm College Football 263 Texas A&M pk -220* vs Oklahoma
				Pending	1/5/13 1:00pm College Football 266 Mississippi -1 -180* vs Pittsburgh U
				Pending	1/7/13 8:30pm College Football 269 Alabama -2½ -410* vs Notre Dame

Risking $5 to win $20,775.78

				Pending	12/15/12 1:00pm College Football 201 Nevada +10½ -140* vs Arizona U
				Pending	12/15/12 4:30pm College Football 204 Utah State -9½ -130* vs Toledo
				Pending	12/20/12 8:00pm College Football 206 San Diego State +3½ -145* vs BYU
				Pending	12/27/12 9:45pm College Football 222 UCLA pk -110* vs Baylor
				Pending	12/29/12 3:15pm College Football 234 Syracuse +7½ -200* vs West Virginia
				Pending	12/29/12 10:15pm College Football 238 Michigan State +3½ -145* vs TCU
				Pending	12/31/12 12:00pm College Football 240 Vanderbilt -6 -135* vs NC State
				Pending	12/31/12 7:30pm College Football 246 LSU -2½ -160* vs Clemson
				Pending	1/1/13 1:00pm College Football 252 South Carolina -2½ -190* vs Michigan
				Pending	1/1/13 1:00pm College Football 254 Georgia -9½ -120* vs Nebraska
				Pending	1/1/13 5:00pm College Football 256 Stanford -6 -125* vs Wisconsin
				Pending	1/1/13 8:30pm College Football 258 Florida State -9½ -170* vs Northern Illinois
				Pending	1/2/13 8:30pm College Football 260 Florida -9½ -190* vs Louisville
				Pending	1/4/13 8:00pm College Football 263 Texas A&M -2½ -170* vs Oklahoma
				Pending	1/5/13 1:00pm College Football 266 Mississippi -2½ -150* vs Pittsburgh U
				Pending	1/7/13 8:30pm College Football 269 Alabama -9½ -120* vs Notre Dame

Just a little fun to start off the bowls. Good luck to everyone with their plays.

[Smutbucket]

thanks for posting bud , where you place bets like that at? online or vegas?

most of them I agree with except, I think baylor wins this one quite easily, nick florence is really not being talked about but I think hes one of top 5 college QBs, the little bit Ive watched of him hes been quite impressive, I was gonna add another unit on it but the fact that you siding with UCLA, and biff has ucla projected to win, imma stick to the 1unit bet....

love the lsu/south carolina picks, If I coulda get south carolina at -1 (-220) I would UNLOAD on it...ill probably take the ML....

Im almost tempted to take louisville as an upset, but havent found the balls to do it, probably cuz my roommate is an extremely biased gator fan which just makes me hate them even more, havent really watched louisville at all, but think florida def overrated, driskel and that offense are damn awful, they got lucky in LSU game scoring big TD due to minter getting hurt and subbing in some backup LB who couldnt do his job,

good luck

[suicidekings]

Bets placed at 5Dimes. They allow you to do almost anything you want there... It's crazy.

Baylor has looked good this year for sure, but UCLA had a really impressive year, only to have much of that glory stolen from them by back to back matchups against an elite Cardinal team. It will for sure be a competitive game, and one of the ones I'm looking forward to the most.

I would steer clear of Louisville. Bridgewater hasn't run into anything even CLOSE to this Gator defense, and the Cardinals rush defense is very porous... Gillislee is going to finish his senior year with a monster day heading into the draft.

[suicidekings]

12/14

Georgia Southern +10 (-110) x1
Georgia Southern ML (+315) x0.5

This game will be a lot closer than last year. The game opened at NDSU -9 and came down to -7.5. Now on the day of the game, that -7.5 is getting juiced heavily, but the total is static at 46/46.5, despite an obvious NDSU defense vs GSU offense matchup being the primary talking point among factors deciding the game. I think GSU has a real shot at winning this game, and at the very least should be in the game the entire way through.

[suicidekings]

12/14

Georgia Southern +10 (-110) x1
Georgia Southern ML (+315) x0.5

12/14: 1-1 (+0.5u)
Postseason: 1-1 (+0.5u)

So close...

[No coincidences]

Good luck SK.

[GIVEMETHEMONEY]

I took your College Bowl Parlay SK Let's Win This!

SK, I just came across your post and I felt good about your picks so I took this one on your parlay.

I just joined sbrforum, so hopefully that will be good luck for both of us.

I put $25 in to $64,871 at 5D let's get this and win it!

Best!

[cmdyrds]

SK,

thanks for the advice on ga southern.

[dfish]

12/14: 1-1 (+0.5u)
Postseason: 1-1 (+0.5u)

So close...

We should have cashed both of these plays,GS could not close it out plus two foolish penaltys costly
anyway GL

[Snowball]

gl hope you hit one.

[suicidekings]

LIVE (7-0 Nevada, 9:02 1Q)

Under 79.5 (-108) x1

[suicidekings]

LIVE (7-0 Nevada, 9:02 1Q)

Under 79.5 (-108) x1

Postseason: 1-2 (-0.58u)

With the ease that Nevada was moving the ball on the ground in this game and the early lead, I really thought the Wolfpack would try to control possession more by extending drive time and playing keepaway with the ball. If they had, they probably would have won this game by two scores at minimum, and the total would have stayed under with ease.

[suicidekings]

San Diego State +3.5 (-105) x3
San Diego State ML (+155) x1

I think the wrong team is favoured in this game. I don't buy BYU as a legitimate favourite in this matchup primarily because when you break down their season, there's a pretty clear division in the games they played between the good opponents and the bad. Their biggest offensive efforts of the year came against some incredibly weak defensive teams: New Mexico State (118th ranked D), Idaho (106th), Georgia Tech (72nd), Hawaii (100th), Washington State (86th), and Weber State (FCS). Against these teams they averaged 44 points per game.

Against their other six opponents, they averaged only 14 ppg : Utah (50th ranked D), Boise State (14th), Utah State (7th), Oregon State (27th), Notre Dame (5th), and San Jose State (41st). The Aztecs rank 53rd on D overall, but 34th in rushing defense, which is on par with BSU/OSU/SJS/Utah. With the uncertainty surrounding the BYU passing game, the Cougars will absolutely need to generate big yardage on the ground to win, and I expect the Aztecs to make it tough on them. Over the course of the season, one of the biggest criticisms of the BYU offense has been their inability to generate big plays.

In passing, the Cougars are waiting to see if Riley Nelson will be healthy enough to start, but I'm not sold on him at all as a threat at QB. If Lark ends up starting, there's even more uncertainty for BYU as the vast majority of his snaps this year came in a game against NMS's 113th ranked pass defense. It proves nothing. Their best option by far among receivers is Cody Hoffman, and the Aztecs have an NFL calibre CB in Leon McFadden that will be glued to Hoffman all game, making it very tough for him to operate, and the 3-3-5 defensive system will provide safety help over the top as well. I don't see them being overly successful in passing in this game.

Defense is obviously the strength of BYU, having only allowed 20+ points three times this year, however the run-heavy teams on their schedule have been quite successful in moving the ball on the ground. SDSU is coming off a school record year in rushing, led by Adam Muema, but the rushing attack is actually the product of an experienced offensive line, an array of good RBs, and the addition of a very good fullback in Chad Young. Young has been a huge component to this offense as a lead blocker, and an occasional threat to catch passes out of the backfield, especially on 3rd down and in the redzone. The loss of Kazee is obviously not optimal, but with Chase Price ready to step in as the #2 back, they're still featuring a very tough running game and I expect Muema/Price/Young to generate a lot of yardage in this matchup.

Special teams are another problem for BYU as their placekicker has been very unreliable this season. They feature an excellent punter, but if this game is close going down the stretch, BYU is at a real disadvantage if they need to kick a FG longer than about 30 yards.

Overall, I like SDSU to have a solid offensive game while BYU will struggle if the Aztecs can play tight coverage on Hoffman. I expect Nelson/Lark to struggle in passing. If the Aztecs defense can win on first downs, the Cougars inability to generate bigger plays is going to make it very hard for them to sustain drives, and with the Aztecs superior offense, the gain from BYUs punter (about a +5 yard differential) isn't going to be enough for them to win the field position battle. I think the Aztecs win this game by a FG.

[suicidekings]

Another point on the BYU-SDSU game: Two years ago, the last time these teams faced each other, BYU fumbled the ball at the SDSU 25 yard line. The referee ruled the runner down by contact, and SDSU challenged on the strength of the replay showing that the ball was very clearly out before the runner was down. The MWC video review official refused to overturn the on-field call, BYU kept possession, and went on to score the game winning TD on that drive. After the game was over, the news came out that the head video review official was on the payroll of BYU, and the scandal later sparked revisions on how the MWC selected it's officials. The three officials responsible were all suspended.

Whether you believe the blown call was intentional or just a mistake, this was a huge deal for the SDSU team and fanbase. With that game having been played in Provo, this year's matchup offers a chance to get some revenge in the larger stage of a bowl game, and also in their home stadium. A little motivational bonus for SDSU.

Skip to 1:40 to watch the fumble.

[2daBank]

i remember that gm, total hose job..lol...side tough for me, i can see the case for both sides and ppl i respect are really split on this one....i played 1st half un 24 and thinking if im starting to feel like if i can make a case for both sides i might as well take the + money....gl sk

[suicidekings]

San Diego State +3.5 (-105) x3
San Diego State ML (+155) x1

12/20: 0-2: (-4.15u)
Postseason: 1-4 (-4.73u)

Pretty gross 4th quarter...

[Dexter]

i didnt know you had a new thread for bowls....i threw up watching that 4th qtr....

[suicidekings]

i didnt know you had a new thread for bowls....i threw up watching that 4th qtr....

Yup. Between Georgia Southern and SDSU not being able to hold on to late leads, I'm not off to the start I was hoping for...

12/21

BSU/UCF 1H Under 30 (-110) x1
BSU/UCF Under 60 (-105) X1

[suicidekings]

Vomit... September through November was an incredibly profitable stretch, and since then, my picks are pure poison... Absolutely terrible.

[suicidekings]

BSU/UCF 1H Under 30 (-110) x1
BSU/UCF Under 60 (-105) X1

12/21: 1-1 (-0.1u)
Postseason: 1-5 (-4.83u)

[suicidekings]

LIVE (End of 1Q, 14-0 ULL)

ECU/ULL Under 66.5 (+116) x1

[suicidekings]

LIVE (3-3, 4:48 1Q)

BSU/UW Under 44.5 (-130) x3

[suicidekings]

ECU/ULL Under 66.5 (+116) x1

BSU/UW Under 44.5 (-130) x3

I'm just going to go ahead and declare the second one a loss as well... Pathetic start...

Postseason: 1-7 (-9.73u)

[suicidekings]

Fresno State -12.5 (-105) x3

Big line, but warranted, in my opinon. There's lots of reasons to like what the Bulldogs are bringing to the table here..

SMU's wins this year (FEI ranking): Stephen F. Austin (FCS team), UTEP (95), Houston (87), Memphis (99), Southern Miss (115), Tulsa (50). Five wins against four CUSA teams with combined records of 12-36, and an FCS team. Then there's the Tulsa win. With Tulsa's path to the CUSA championship game already locked up, Tulsa clearly came into that game half asleep. Tulsa totaled only 71 yards on their first 6 possessions, and then put up 519 yards on their next 9 drives (5.8 ypc rushing, 9.1 yppa passing). Tulsa also turned it over on downs deep in SMU territory twice, pushing for TDs instead of taking easy FGs, and turned the ball over three times at their own 31, 26, and 48 yard lines, resulting in 14 SMU points. I've seen multiple people talk about how SMU played Tulsa tough while FS lost to them. Not a meaningful result...

On offense, Gilbert is only a 53% passer (49% out of conference) and the Fresno State pass defense is one of their greatest strengths. Gilbert's statistical resume is pretty well documented. He's not a good QB, and his OL hasn't been able to protect him at all this year (29 sacks this year). He's just not going to pull a rabbit out of his hat here... At the other end, Derek Carr just committed to coming back for his senior year after a very solid junior season. He has his sights on being drafted high in the 2014 NFL draft, and is only 289 yards shy of setting the all time MWC single season record for total offense. This is a guy with a great skill-set, from a QB family, that's looking to pad his stats as much as possible, and make sure every NFL team is watching him in the 2013 season.

The SMU defense is alright against the run, but not strong enough that they can disregard Robbie Rouse. Rouse is a senior that's projected to be a 6-7th round NFL 2013 draft prospect that's just 126 yards shy of 2000 all purpose yards for the season, and has only been held under that number once this season. In pass defense, the Mustangs have been gashed 8 times this year for 295+ passing yards and have a very low 3.5% sack rate. They've given up 155 1st downs from passing this year, which is 114th in the FBS. They can't generate pressure at the line, and struggle in coverage. They're going to have a very hard time containing Carr in this game, especially if they have to respect Rouse's running ability.

Finally, in terms of coaching, June Jones has a good history in Hawaii, going 4-1 in the Hawaii bowl and led the Warriors to 7 winning years in 9 seasons as their HC, albeit against fairly weak schedules. Since arriving at SMU, he's actually underperformed, doing less with what he's had available than he should have, including 2-9 SU & 3-8 ATS as a road dog over the last 3 years. For Fresno, Tim DeRuyter just finished his first full season as an HC, and has a very impressive resume as a defensive coordinator, dramatically improving the defense of every program he's ever worked for by installing his extremely aggressive 3-4 defense. He's ambitious, and already has one bowl win under his belt last year as the interim TAMU HC. Ultimately, he has his sights set on coaching at a major program, and this game, along with the 2013 season (with Derek Carr in place) offers him a prime opportunity establish his name on a national stage.

So overall, we're looking at an extremely weak SMU offense led by a proven loser at QB facing a strong defensive team, coached by an HC that prides himself on that defensive intensity. Fresno also features two NFL bound offensive players in Carr & Rouse who are looking to make an impression in this game. I think SMU will have real troubles scoring in this game, whereas the Bulldogs will apply a lot of pressure to the Mustangs defense. I think it's just a matter of time until Fresno imposes their will on SMU, and likely will not take their foot off the gas at any point. It's a statement game.

[Dexter]

glad to see you only went 3x....when i saw your comment about how you had no respect for anyone with a play on smu i was sure this would have been a 10-20x play

[suicidekings]

glad to see you only went 3x....when i saw your comment about how you had no respect for anyone with a play on smu i was sure this would have been a 10-20x play

Me too. I think there's only about ~10 teams in the FBS that could ever qualify for a 10u+ play in my mind, but I was definitely considering more than 3u here.

[suicidekings]

12/28

Teaser: Rutgers +7 / Under 48 (+105) x2

[suicidekings]

LIVE (10-7 Minn, 5:55 1Q)

Texas Tech -9.5 (+121) x1

[Dexter]

12/28

Teaser: Rutgers +7 / Under 48 (+105) x2

nice...

[suicidekings]

Teaser: Rutgers +7 / Under 48 (+105) x2
Texas Tech -9.5 (+121) x1

I almost bought out of TT at the half, but let it roll instead. The Gophers arguably played their best game in years tonight...

12/28: 1-1 (+1.05u)
Bowls: 2-9 (-11.83u)

Hitting 18% in bowl season is about as unlikely as hitting 82%. Fortunately, the higher quality games are about to start.

[suicidekings]

nice...

Thanks

[suicidekings]

12/29

Air Force ML (-117) x2

Rice won't be able to stop the run-heavy offense here. I just think they're the fundamentally correct side here, and even though it might not be pretty, the Falcons will win this game.

Navy +14 (-102) x2

I don't believe for one second that ASU can stop the triple option. Six of the Sun Devils wins this season came against Northern Arizona, Colorado, Washington State, Utah, California, and Illinois. Nothing impressive about that... They also got gashed for 200+ rushing yards five times, including over 400 surrendered to Oregon. On defense, ASU's greatest strength is an aggressive pass rush, but the triple option was designed to counter exactly this type of defense. I'm a big believer in the addition of Keenan Reynolds at QB. This kid is an outstanding athlete that's already showing a lot as a freshman. Navy is obviously a run-heavy offense, but he's quite capable of making plays downfield as well. Also in the option are RBs Gee Gee Greene and Noah Copeland, and collectively, this unit is very efficient and hard to stop. At +14, I really like backing Navy and their ball-control offense. I think they win time of possession and are live to win this game outright.

[Dexter]

not sure if you care about these type of angles, but new head coaches have an ATS bowl record of 39-67 since 1990.

This years results so far for new coaches in bowls:

Zona - L
Toledo - L
Fresno - L
UCLA - L
Arizona St - ?

I dont know what to make of this, but it works for whatever reason...

[ShogunRua]

SK, i remember you saying somewhere you really liked Michigan St. tomorrow. Care to elaborate, I was leaning the other way.

[suicidekings]

SK, i remember you saying somewhere you really liked Michigan St. tomorrow. Care to elaborate, I was leaning the other way.

TCU has been living off opponents' bad defense this season, but when they've matched up against good defensive teams (Oklahoma, OK State, and Kansas State), they haven't looked nearly as good. MSU's defense is arguably better than any of those teams, and I expect the Spartans to lean hard on their D today. On offense, they have the tools to succeed, however much of their season was marred by receivers dropping passes and Maxwell's growing pains. I just think that after a month of practice, we're going to see a very solid performance from Dantonio's team today.