SK's 2012-13 NCAAF Bowls

[Smutbucket]

Hey SK ! good luck today! really love mich. st. putting 2.5 units on it....

nice teaser last night with rutgers/first 5 min of game you could tell that was an absolute lock of a pick...vtech was lucky to put up as many points on the board as they did....looking forward to fading logan thomas next year if hes back....

like the air force pick, I was leaning them but didnt take.....


Dex, that is intresting lil stat I didnt know and it makes sense as teams sometimes need more than 1 season to adjust/become comfortable with new coaches/implement systems

pretty excited abut all the sweeet bowl games about to start

[suicidekings]

not sure if you care about these type of angles, but new head coaches have an ATS bowl record of 39-67 since 1990.

This years results so far for new coaches in bowls:

Zona - L
Toledo - L
Fresno - L
UCLA - L
Arizona St - ?

I dont know what to make of this, but it works for whatever reason...

I'm skeptical about a lot of system angles, but this one definitely makes sense. I would imagine that most new head coaches are inheriting teams that aren't championship calibre, or else the old HC would probably still be there. The teams might be good enough to get to bowls, but are still very flawed.

[suicidekings]

like the air force pick, I was leaning them but didnt take.....

Probably smart of you... AF getting gashed in the passing game by these 6'5" Rice receivers...

[suicidekings]

Teaser: Syracuse +10.5 / Over 63.5 (+100) x1
Syracuse ML (+166) x1

[suicidekings]

Syracuse/WVU 2H Under 30.5 (-113) x1

[Dexter]

I'm having second thoughts (can you blame me) on Oregon St and the Over....tell me your thoughts on this game. The last time i faded a home dog in a bowl game was C.Michigan...

[suicidekings]

I'm having second thoughts (can you blame me) on Oregon St and the Over....tell me your thoughts on this game. The last time i faded a home dog in a bowl game was C.Michigan...

Texas doesn't tackle well in the open field, getting gashed by the run, but can hang with teams that are pass heavy. Oregon State is definitely pass-heavy. Whoever wins the Beaver passing vs Texas pass defense matchup probably wins the game. I also think Mack Brown has lost control of his team, and the discipline issue from two fairly important players in the last couple of days just reinforces that notion. Sending them home is probably going to work against him as I suspect the team is not mentally 100% focused on this game. I think we're going to see a few players wanting the win and some just going through the motions. It wouldn't shock me if Texas lays an egg.

Bear in mind though that I'm having a HORRIBLE time right now, just hemorrhaging money all month.

[suicidekings]

Syracuse/WVU 2H Under 30.5 (-113) x1

28 penetrating points in 12 minutes... 18 minutes to get 17 more and my teaser is back in play...

[Dexter]

Texas doesn't tackle well in the open field, getting gashed by the run, but can hang with teams that are pass heavy. Oregon State is definitely pass-heavy. Whoever wins the Beaver passing vs Texas pass defense matchup probably wins the game. I also think Mack Brown has lost control of his team, and the discipline issue from two fairly important players in the last couple of days just reinforces that notion. Sending them home is probably going to work against him as I suspect the team is not mentally 100% focused on this game. I think we're going to see a few players wanting the win and some just going through the motions. It wouldn't shock me if Texas lays an egg.

Bear in mind though that I'm having a HORRIBLE time right now, just hemorrhaging money all month.

cool - will stay with what i have....i like angles like that much more then on the field match-ups...

[suicidekings]

Now only 15 more needed... Or zero. Let's go Nassib. Prove yourself to those scouts!

[Dexter]

Now only 15 more needed... Or zero. Let's go Nassib. Prove yourself to those scouts!

this is crazy.....wv defense is swiss cheese at this point...

[suicidekings]

LIVE (3-0 OSU, 9:12 1Q)

Texas ML (+169) x1

Let's see if playing what doesn't make sense to me works...

[Dexter]

i switched last minute as well to texas and under....figured to just fade myself and the public

[suicidekings]

i switched last minute as well to texas and under....figured to just fade myself

Yeah, I saw that. Even Syracuse was played against my better judgement, so if Texas was to win today, fading myself would be 4-0. Whatever works I guess...

[suicidekings]

Air Force ML (-117) x2
Navy +14 (-102) x2
Teaser: Syracuse +10.5 / Over 63.5 (+100) x1
Syracuse ML (+166) x1
Syracuse/WVU 2H Under 30.5 (-113) x1
Texas ML (+169) x1

12/29: 2-4 (-3.16u)
Bowls: 4-13 (-14.99u)
I needed that Texas win badly...

[Dexter]

didnt you like msu a lot?

[suicidekings]

didnt you like msu a lot?

Yes, but I'm anticipating being able to get a better live line. I think if I can get +3.5 or better at any point, it's a significantly better play in what will probably be a low scoring game. I think TCU will start stronger, but MSU will finish stronger as Bell starts to wear down the TCU defense. The young Frogs will lose their composure.

Plus, I got distracted between the end of the last game and the kickoff of this one. I was going to tease MSU/Under and just missed it.

[suicidekings]

LIVE (7-0 TCU, 5:45 1Q)

Spartans +6.5 (+105) x1
Under 40 (-108) x1

[Dexter]

well, there you go....hope you're right.

[suicidekings]

LIVE (7-0 TCU, End of 1Q)

Spartans +11 (-108) x1

[Dexter]

what are your thoughts on usc's offense w/o barkley? i am already booked on usc-10 and over 64.....would sign up for a split right now.

i couldnt fade paul johnson quick enough and now im paying for it...

[suicidekings]

what are your thoughts on usc's offense w/o barkley? i am already booked on usc-10 and over 64.....would sign up for a split right now.

i couldnt fade paul johnson quick enough and now im paying for it...

I think they want this win badly after two years of sitting at home. Plus anything to draw attention away from the fact that they're the most disappointing team in the FBS this year... I think their defense probably steps up here and makes life hard for the Yellow Jackets offense, and Wittek should be able to connect with Lee and Woods repeatedly. The Trojans really need this win if they want to start the 2013 season without a shadow hanging over the program.

I'd probably play the same as you, but it's not a game I'm really dialed in on.

[suicidekings]

Spartans +6.5 (+105) x1
Under 40 (-108) x1
Spartans +11 (-108) x1

12/29: 5-4 (-0.11u)
Bowls: 7-13 (-11.94u)

Not an impressive day, but it feels REALLY good to win a couple to end the day.

[Smutbucket]

very nice live bets buddy, good call on waiting too, made it A LOT safer, TCU was lucky to put up the points they did early, long 3rd downs, lucky last second throws with heavy pressure, almost were INTs, but instead went for 40-50 yards, I wish they woulda kept cook in the whole game, he is WAY better than maxwell in my opinion, maxwell seems to freak out often and unable to handle any sort of pressure.....

u got NFL picks for tmrw? just started looking at card...little hesitant to bet, last week and all.....

[No coincidences]

Nice hits, SK. MSU needed a huge break and got one with that fumble on the punt. Punter was the player of the game. Good to see you on the right side of a positive break.

[No coincidences]

very nice live bets buddy, good call on waiting too, made it A LOT safer, TCU was lucky to put up the points they did early, long 3rd downs, lucky last second throws with heavy pressure, almost were INTs, but instead went for 40-50 yards, I wish they woulda kept cook in the whole game, he is WAY better than maxwell in my opinion, maxwell seems to freak out often and unable to handle any sort of pressure.....

u got NFL picks for tmrw? just started looking at card...little hesitant to bet, last week and all.....

I'm not very impressed with Cook or Maxwell to be honest. Maxwell was victimized by a lot of drops. MSU has no No. 1 receiver; Burbridge looks like the closest thing.

[Smutbucket]

come on no coin, it was obviously leveon bell, tcu had no answer for him, even when they knew it was comin

[No coincidences]

come on no coin, it was obviously leveon bell, tcu had no answer for him, even when they knew it was comin

Bell was the obvious choice and yes he had a good game, but MSU's punter saved their bacon all night long.

[Smutbucket]

....if I remeber correctly he had a shank early in the game that put TCU at 50yard line, nor do I remeber very many "amazing punts" besides the last one that got muffed, give respect where respect is due, leveon had 150 yards on the ground and 30 in the air...he was responsible for 190 yards of the 225 yards the team had, but no the punter with a 39.3 avg and a 53 yard long was obviously the player of game right because no coin knows his shit!.......haters gonna hate,

[No coincidences]

....if I remeber correctly he had a shank early in the game that put TCU at 50yard line, nor do I remeber very many "amazing punts" besides the last one that got muffed, give respect where respect is due, leveon had 150 yards on the ground and 30 in the air...he was responsible for 190 yards of the 225 yards the team had, but no the punter with a 39.3 avg and a 53 yard long was obviously the player of game right because no coin knows his shit!.......haters gonna hate,

He did have one shank, yes. Other than that, his kicks were critical to MSU being in the game. The punt that TCU's PR muffed was the turning point, and it was just as much about the punt itself as the guy who fumbled it. It's not always about distance; all of his punts other than the shank had great trajectory.

I'm not "hating" on Bell. I said he had a good game, like he always does. Just thinking outside the box a little. Why do you always go off the deep end and get so hyperbolic when responding to my posts?

[suicidekings]

Nice hits, SK. MSU needed a huge break and got one with that fumble on the punt. Punter was the player of the game. Good to see you on the right side of a positive break.

I actually did really well all season betting on MSU games. They're extremely consistent in what they bring to the field, even if they fell short in some ways this year. If they can add a bit of talent in their receiver corps, they'll be looking great for the 2013 year.

And thanks, NC. Looking forward to the rest of the bowl games.

[No coincidences]

I actually did really well all season betting on MSU games. They're extremely consistent in what they bring to the field, even if they fell short in some ways this year. If they can add a bit of talent in their receiver corps, they'll be looking great for the 2013 year.

And thanks, NC. Looking forward to the rest of the bowl games.

I like the Burbridge kid, and he's just a true frosh. Mumphery, Fowler and Lippett are secondary options at best.

They'll lose Bell, Gholston and maybe Sims early to the NFL. It'll be interesting to see what they do at QB.

[Dexter]

whats your take on this move from 10 to 8.5 in georgia/nebraska? it scared me from going a little heavier to be honest...but i still have 6u on the bulldogs.

[suicidekings]

whats your take on this move from 10 to 8.5 in georgia/nebraska? it scared me from going a little heavier to be honest...but i still have 6u on the bulldogs.

I'm always hesitant to lay big spreads because I think the more you move away from a pick, the more you depend on a team to not just be content with the W, but instead want to show off. Georgia was SO close to a spot in the National Title game that I have a hard time believing they won't want to make a statement in this game. Not sure if they can really shut down Rex/Abdullah, but I'm pretty sure Taylor Martinez is going to have a hard day.

The line opened at -8.5, moved to -10, and then went back to -8.5, so it hasn't really moved against you. I would bet that the original line took some quick action SU and teased down to -2.5, so they jumped to -10 to protect themselves. They're probably confident that they'll get two way action closer to gameday and straddling the 7/10 at 8.5 gives them more flexibility with the line when public money starts to come in. Probably not an opinion move. Just optimizing their position.

[suicidekings]

LIVE (7-0 Commodores, 1Q 9.51)

NC State +10.5 (+111) x1
NC State ML (+354) x0.5