Virginia Tech will surprise the 'Noles tonight

[Machine Choice]

I've been looking at these two teams' seasons and what is abundantly clear is that VT is underrated and FSU is overrated in this game tonight.

FSU has played three road games and hasn't covered any of them, even though two of them were in the state of Florida. Last time they ventured across state lines, they were shocked by NC State. Tonight they go into cold Blacksburg where VT will be hoping MAKE THEIR SEASON. They can still become bowl eligible, and they would like nothing more than to knock off a top-10 team on Thursday night.

VT is 19-5 SU in Thurs night games, and 25-2 SU in ACC games in November. Last week they lost to Miami despite outgaining the Hurricanes 421-347. The Hokie defense held the Hurricanes to 1 of 12 on 3rd downs and VT only lost the game due to a blocked punt and an 81-yd kickoff return that set up a short scoring opportunity.

Against Clemson, again VT outgained their opponent by 74 yards, yet lost the game due to a busted trick play that was returned for a TD, and also two additional INTs. Don't look for those kinds of turnovers on the Hokies' home field.

Both of these teams can pound the rock, but FSU's QB has been less error-prone. However, he has struggled in road games and VT has a good defense despite what people think. (just ask Stephen Morris, Taj Boyd, and Sean Renfree...all victims of repeated sacks and raping at the hands of Hokie defense this year.) That said, FSU does have a better defense than VT, and what I look for in this game is for FSU to just grind down VT with both teams attempting to pound the rock. Jimbo Fisher probably won't let Manuel air it out too much in this environment tonight.

I am struck by VT's 4-0 record at home and even more impressed after I saw how good Bowling Green played last night (VT beat them 37-0 earlier this year).

VT keeps this game close boys.

Predicted Score:
FSU 28
VT 18

HOKIES +13.5

[eeezzzz]

I agree. The only scary thing is Logan Thomas throwing the ball against 1 of the best defenses in the nation.

[hougigo]

I also agree, I think V-tech plays better at home too

[Machine Choice]

I agree. The only scary thing is Logan Thomas throwing the ball against 1 of the best defenses in the nation.

Yes but FSU's strength of schedule is 108, so their defense stats are over-inflated.

[Bbfromgpt]

Machine you're on to something, plus dogs have been money this week. We've had the same picks all week.


Just for fun what you think

FSU ML, Arkansas State ML, and Colts -2.5 parlay

[Roscoe_Word]

Very informative post, but can't back a underachieving VT....Gotta think state won't take em lightly......the home-rd analysis imo is a very valid pt and makes me think twice....

[ridims]

good pick machine and well done last night. keep it going

[Machine Choice]

FSU is 0-2 SU off byes under Fisher and has committed 9 fumbles in their last two games.

[theangryelf]

Machine you're on to something, plus dogs have been money this week. We've had the same picks all week.


Just for fun what you think

FSU ML, Arkansas State ML, and Colts -2.5 parlay

Watch out for that colts game...the jags are 3-0 ats and su when the line < or = 3.5 after losing their previous 5 games

[Urbanwildlife]

@ Machine Choic,
For your own sake I hope you do not wake up out of your dream, as that is what you are doing!

[Urbanwildlife]

Home field means shit on Thursday nights, just ask Arizona State, and Wake Forest who played the Thursday night games in the past month. Everyone was talking about how Arizona State was going to cover against Oregon, because they were playing at home on a Thursday night, and the same bullshit was being said about Wake Forest. Talent and good coaching wins games, and tonights game is going to be no different.

[Bbfromgpt]

Watch out for that colts game...the jags are 3-0 ats and su when the line < or = 3.5 after losing their previous 5 games

I hate a public prime time play but I think Luck has a monster game

[itol1070]

I thank u r right

[eeezzzz]

Home field means shit on Thursday nights, just ask Arizona State, and Wake Forest who played the Thursday night games in the past month. Everyone was talking about how Arizona State was going to cover against Oregon, because they were playing at home on a Thursday night, and the same bullshit was being said about Wake Forest. Talent and good coaching wins games, and tonights game is going to be no different.

This has nothing to do with it being a Thursday night game imo. It has to do with an overrated FSU team going into an away conference game. FSU does this every year.... I almost thought they had something when they came back and beat Clemson earlier in the season. I was quickly reminded that they are the same FSU team when I saw them get shut out in the 2nd half against NC State and lose.

VT has nothing to lose and everything to gain. FSU is probably only looking ahead till they play Florida. I live near Tallahassee all these fans and players are cocky as hell, but only at the beginning of the season when they are ranked higher than they should be.

[eeezzzz]

Nov 08, 2012 11:21:48 AM

Single #270939029 Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread (108) Virginia Tech +14 Nov 08/12@07:30p Competitor: (107) Florida State

Web

US$ 500.00

US$ 454.55

[bane]

This has nothing to do with it being a Thursday night game imo. It has to do with an overrated FSU team going into an away conference game. FSU does this every year.... I almost thought they had something when they came back and beat Clemson earlier in the season. I was quickly reminded that they are the same FSU team when I saw them get shut out in the 2nd half against NC State and lose.

VT has nothing to lose and everything to gain. FSU is probably only looking ahead till they play Florida. I live near Tallahassee all these fans and players are cocky as hell, but only at the beginning of the season when they are ranked higher than they should be.

Disagree. FSU spent the bye preparing for V Tech, addressing mistakes.

"...thanks to North Carolina's win last weekend over North Carolina State, the Seminoles have been handed a second chance at winning the ACC championship and a BCS trip to the Orange Bowl..
Coach Fisher gave his players Monday off with Saturday's open date, giving him 12 days to get ready for a visit to Virginia Tech, where the Seminoles lost 40-21 in their last trip to Blacksburg, Va., in 2007.
"That's one of the toughest environments there is," Fisher said. "I'm anxious to see how this team will grow and handle that situation."
The Seminoles are 2-1 away from home this year, averaging 26.7 points on the road compared with 54 at home." Fox News

Just not convinced V Tech is able to cover 14. They're 22% ATS this season, defense would need to step up & exploit FSU's tendency to turn the ball over. V Tech needs to play like a completely different team tonight *and* FSU needs to continue to be mediocre on the road. Both must happen for V Tech to cover.

[Urbanwildlife]

No worries once again, as talent will prevail. Logan Thomas will have to have the game of his life as that will be the only way Virgina Tech covers this spread, and I just do not believe he has it in him, but miracles do happen.

[hurricane1091]

I can't take VT here. They might have a chance with a large spread here since they are at home but they blow something awful.

[Machine Choice]

This is comical with some of you guys thinking that the Seminoles have an offense like Oregon and defense like 'bama. Get a hold on yourselves and calm down. If VT simply plays as well tonight as they played in their home games vs GATECH, DUKE and BOWLING GREEN (all bowl teams this year) it will be MORE than enough to cover 14 points vs this FSU TEAM that was not impressive in road games at USF, MIAMI, and NC STATE. VT doesn't need the game of their lives, just a solid effort to cover. WHICH WE WILL GET.

[Murray Rothbard]

Nice write up Machine, and congrats on the last couple wins you've had, you seem to be on fire as of late. That being said VTech is no where the near as good as I think you are making them out to be. It's true that they out gained both Clemson and Miami in yards but they were also trailing in both those games (in particular the Clemson game where the score was 31-10 5 minutes into 3rdQ) so that statistic isn't entirely surprising or indicative of how "better" they are then both those teams IMO.

I think the best point you made was in regards to FSU's underperformance on the road and how the cold, wet, weather may affect FSU negatively tonight. Even still, I just think the Hokies are a shell of their former self and Thomas seems to really be struggling this year.

Overall, I just believe FSU is the superior team with superior talent. Anyways, GL to everyone.

[Coach Jake]

This is a one dimensional Vtech team that got smoked by Miami last week 12-30? They're so wannabe Cam Newton that their passing game is essentially non-existent. As FSU goes, they are a run stopping defense, and Virginia Tech is a power running team...Like urban said, Logan Thomas will have to have an All-American type of game to pull this out, spread or not. GL, but i've learned my lesson bettin on the VT Chokies

[PAULYPOKER]

Virginia Tech will surprise the 'Noles tonight

HOKIES +13.5
Predicted Score:
FSU 28
VT 18

Yes, this will surprise the Noles alright....................

[Machine Choice]

This is a one dimensional Vtech team that got smoked by Miami last week 12-30? They're so wannabe Cam Newton that their passing game is essentially non-existent. As FSU goes, they are a run stopping defense, and Virginia Tech is a power running team...Like urban said, Logan Thomas will have to have an All-American type of game to pull this out, spread or not. GL, but i've learned my lesson bettin on the VT Chokies

MIAMI did not smoke VT. The CANES shouldn't have even won the game. You need to go read about it before you mention it.

[hurricane1091]

LOL please do not mention GT, Duke and Bowling Green, they aren't a fraction of the team FSU is.

[757sFinest]

Just don't see it happening. I feel bad for the Hokies and I hate to say it but we won't make a bowl this year. Sad, very sad. Hopefully Beamer will finally cut ties with Stinespring. That's all we have asked for for what? Oh I don't know, since '04.

[757sFinest]

And now for our Hokie preview. Let's go to Hokie sports caster Ollie Williams.....Ollie




Thanks Ollie

[BiffTFinancial]

hmm. i've watched a lot of both teams this season and what is abundantly clear to me is that VT sucks, Logan Thomas has zero confidence and i can't back the Hokies. BOL with your play, though, hope it hits.

[eeezzzz]

And now for our Hokie preview. Let's go to Hokie sports caster Ollie Williams.....Ollie

[ATTACH]50076[/ATTACH]


Thanks Ollie

lol

[Smutbucket]

MIAMI did not smoke VT. The CANES shouldn't have even won the game. You need to go read about it before you mention it.

completely wrong. read about it? try watching it....UM dominated them but did stupid ass mistakes to keep them in the entire game, Stephen Morris is terrible, absolutely TERRIBLE, yet LOGAN THOMAS is EVEN WORSE! their offense is EXTREMELY one dimensional, bc of logan thomas and FSU knows this by now, they will shut them down, while EJ Manuel will move the ball at will against this team, vtechs one TD was such a joke against miami, but thats bc miamis defense is young and are plagued by missed assignments on certain plays, which is how vtech scored.....vtechs only weapon on offense is Corey Fuller, everyone else on that offense IS GARBAGE, vtech is shaking up their defense though bc its so bad, miami had a few wide open recievers stephen morris just couldnt hit in last weeks game, we'll see how the changes effect them....

[Machine Choice]

completely wrong. read about it? try watching it....UM dominated them but did stupid ass mistakes to keep them in the entire gamed.

Comical.

Besides being outgained by almost 100 yards, Miami had only three total yards the entire 3 rd Qtr. They were 1 of 12 on 3rd down. High school teams can do better than that. Hokies held the ball for 34 minutes, had 82 plays compared to 58 for Miami, and had 24 first downs compared to 15 for the Canes.

Yeah, the Canes dominated alright. Put the pipe down, Jim Morrison.

[Murray Rothbard]

And now for our Hokie preview. Let's go to Hokie sports caster Ollie Williams.....Ollie

[ATTACH]50076[/ATTACH]


Thanks Ollie

[Big Bear]

If u bet on the Hokies u deserve to lose

[Murray Rothbard]

Comical.

Besides being outgained by almost 100 yards, Miami had only three total yards the entire 3 rd Qtr. They were 1 of 12 on 3rd down. High school teams can do better than that. Hokies held the ball for 34 minutes, had 82 plays compared to 58 for Miami, and had 24 first downs compared to 15 for the Canes.

Yeah, the Canes dominated alright. Put the pipe down, Jim Morrison.

I think those statistics just show how inefficient the Hokies are. The fact that they ran that many more plays and still loss 30-12 goes to show how bad VTech is this year.

[Smutbucket]

ya that was 2nd half when miami offense went into dr jekel mode.....had open WRs, just couldnt hit them, dropped passes and such, stats can be misleading, just because a team "held the ball longer" does not mean they dominated, nor does the amount of first downs determine domination but the amount of quality plays, vtech had 75 yards of their extra 100 on an untouched qb draw right up the middle where logan thomas scored THE SLOWEST TD of ALL TIME. I had a vtech fan sitting next to me at the game and he was providing me with all the indepth shit talking about how bad vtech is this year without me even having to say anything.....but think what you want from your lil 10 min anaylsis after reading an "espn recap" and noticing stats such as the ones you listed as for reasons why vtech dominated miami in the game are laughable. vtech dominated miami and should of won?? hahahaha, my friends and I who went to the game will get a good laugh out of that one....

we'll see buddy, good luck to you. but youd be a moron to invest in logan thomas and this offense

[Night-Tripper]

Comical.

Besides being outgained by almost 100 yards, Miami had only three total yards the entire 3 rd Qtr. They were 1 of 12 on 3rd down. High school teams can do better than that. Hokies held the ball for 34 minutes, had 82 plays compared to 58 for Miami, and had 24 first downs compared to 15 for the Canes.

Yeah, the Canes dominated alright. Put the pipe down, Jim Morrison.

I woulda thought that you'd have learned your lesson by now. Every single time you become uppity, you end up having to go into hibernation for a couple of Nuclear Winters. After checking the latest NOAA weather forecast, I'm predicting that the latest front will be blowing through here before midnight-thirty.