August playlist.

[NunyaBidness]

That sort of bet is fine until a favourite loses, and you lose all of the small increments of money you made doing it plus extra.

That's not true. If you're betting huge favorites when they are undervalued you will make a profit. You might have some stomach churning nights, but overall you're up.

The idea that you shouldn't bet favorites over x number is prevalent in this sport for some reason and has left a lot of value on the table.

[Vaughany]

See Chad Mendes vs Cody!

[AdamB]

That's not true. If you're betting huge favorites when they are undervalued you will make a profit. You might have some stomach churning nights, but overall you're up.

The idea that you shouldn't bet favorites over x number is prevalent in this sport for some reason and has left a lot of value on the table.

I guess the way I see it is that near everybody loses eventually in MMA. Sure, it wouldn't surprise me if Rousey, Bones and Aldo all win their next 3 fights, but odds are all of them will lose one day - and if they do, it will be as a favorite. I can't shake the feeling that whilst that could happen way down the line, you could use this tactic and get burned the first time - if you don't get burned, the gain is minimal.

I mean, if I'm not mistake some people caught Mendes vs McKenzie at about -500 or perhaps even a little less? That was quite literally a hand-picked matchup for Mendes - there was little if not no chance of Cody getting a flash KO on him, he had the wrestling to keep it standing with ease and even if it went to the floor, the guillotine is something his team specialises in. In that circumstance I can see exactly why people would lay the juice, especially since it really should have been valued like these Rousey and Jones fights are. There's always a way someone can lose in MMA, but I don't really remember seeing a fight where somebody had so few. While Rousey and Jones don't have many ways to lose, there is definitely more chance of them losing than there was for Mendes.

In that sense, I think Mendes having the implied probability of 83% to win was undervalued by a decent amount, say 7% conservatively. Jones and Rousey being at 87.5%, if they are undervalued it's only by a really tiny margin. 12.5% seems like a conservative estimation for Hendo or Kaufman to land a heavy punch and finish from there as well as any other freak occurences, at least to me.

Anyway, you know more about this shit than I do - this is just the way I see it.

[NunyaBidness]

You're thinking short term. Who cares if you get burned next time, or this month, or next month. You have to embrace the variance if you're going to maximize your value. It's hard for me, I'm a naturally risk averse person.

There were about 100 olympic props I found with value in the -650 to -1200 range. Some of them lost, but I won a significant amount overall.

You can't sweat the day to day if you're trying to make money in this game, you'll lose all your hair.

[Vitooch]

You're thinking short term. Who cares if you get burned next time, or this month, or next month. You have to embrace the variance if you're going to maximize your value. It's hard for me, I'm a naturally risk averse person.

There were about 100 olympic props I found with value in the -650 to -1200 range. Some of them lost, but I won a significant amount overall.

You can't sweat the day to day if you're trying to make money in this game, you'll lose all your hair.

You're "The Grinder"

[NunyaBidness]

You're "The Grinder"

F You.

That bitch is broke and owes the IRS millions.

[DublinMeUp]

Nunya, would you consider yourself as recognisable as Grinder or Scotty, I mean they are known in the poker world and slightly known outside it (mainly from WSOP, WPT and similar coverage).

Or are you more/less known than them?

[Vitooch]

Nunya, would you consider yourself as recognisable as Grinder or Scotty, I mean they are known in the poker world and slightly known outside it (mainly from WSOP, WPT and similar coverage).

Or are you more/less known than them?

More popular than Scotty? Doyle Brunson?

Maybe Nunya is Jamie Gold

[DublinMeUp]

Popular doesn't really mean the same thing as recognisable or known.

[gabe]

---

Braves win 6-1

[Educ8d Degener8]

You're thinking short term. Who cares if you get burned next time, or this month, or next month. You have to embrace the variance if you're going to maximize your value. It's hard for me, I'm a naturally risk averse person.

There were about 100 olympic props I found with value in the -650 to -1200 range. Some of them lost, but I won a significant amount overall.

You can't sweat the day to day if you're trying to make money in this game, you'll lose all your hair.

What was your fav Olympic prop? I liked Usain more golds than Yohan Blake (-300). You could tell Usain was sandbagging coming into the Olympics... I didn't pay much attention to other ones tbh. Glad you cleaned up.

[gabe]

USA men and women both win gold in basketball at -360 was a lock.

[Educ8d Degener8]

USA men and women both win gold in basketball at -360 was a lock.

Yeah, I think I tried parlaying those with other shit, but dimes said no-no.

[NunyaBidness]

Nunya, would you consider yourself as recognisable as Grinder or Scotty, I mean they are known in the poker world and slightly known outside it (mainly from WSOP, WPT and similar coverage).

Or are you more/less known than them?

No, no, I'm a nobody. Nobody in the poker world knows my name, I've played with everyone famous and they know my face, but I don't have any real accomplishments. No bracelets here.

I'm mostly a cash game player, no one knows those guys.

[NunyaBidness]

What was your fav Olympic prop? I liked Usain more golds than Yohan Blake (-300). You could tell Usain was sandbagging coming into the Olympics... I didn't pay much attention to other ones tbh. Glad you cleaned up.

My favorite was Jamaica to win 4x100m womens relay. It didn't come in, but the value was sick.

Of winners, my favorite was US not to win both 4x400m male and female at -130 at bovadadog. Not sure why that line never moved, but it was way wrong.

One book was copying pinnys 1H lines for handball and using them as their full game lines, that was pretty sick.

I got Usain to win the 200m at -170 before he won the 100m which ended up being great value as it closed like -700.

[gabe]

No, no, I'm a nobody. Nobody in the poker world knows my name, I've played with everyone famous and they know my face, but I don't have any real accomplishments. No bracelets here.

I'm mostly a cash game player, no one knows those guys.

That you on the left? Nice fedora!

[PunisherIND]

My favorite was Jamaica to win 4x100m womens relay. It didn't come in, but the value was sick.

Of winners, my favorite was US not to win both 4x400m male and female at -130 at bovadadog. Not sure why that line never moved, but it was way wrong.

One book was copying pinnys 1H lines for handball and using them as their full game lines, that was pretty sick.

I got Usain to win the 200m at -170 before he won the 100m which ended up being great value as it closed like -700.

damn, i didnt see these "not to win" lines on bovada. serena williams to win gold at +200 was a good one. also yannick agnel to win the 200m freestyle at +220 (should have been closer to even but lochte was being over hyped)

[gabe]

MLB for 8/16

#1 Braves -185

#2 Dodgers +130

#3 Royals -125

$40 to win $215 on a 3 teamer

[illmatick]

Nice number on the dodgers. Which book gave you +130?

[gabe]

Nice number on the dodgers. Which book gave you +130?

mine.

[Vaughany]

gabedimes.com

[sideloaded]

haaha gabedimes.com is awesome

[gabe]

i've been asked a million times which book i use, and i've said a million times that i don't use online books

[Vaughany]

Shall we all put some money in to a pot and buy the rights to "gabedimes.com" so that we have it in place ready for when Gabe hits the big time?

[sideloaded]

gabedimes.com should be the next great bitcoin sportsbook

[NunyaBidness]

i've been asked a million times which book i use, and i've said a million times that i don't use online books

Which pph do you use is a fair question then.

[NunyaBidness]

damn, i didnt see these "not to win" lines on bovada. serena williams to win gold at +200 was a good one. also yannick agnel to win the 200m freestyle at +220 (should have been closer to even but lochte was being over hyped)

It was the only not to win line I saw on bodog, it was under matchups. TBH was the only olympic bet I made at bodoga.

[NunyaBidness]

That you on the left? Nice fedora!

That's not even a poker table homey.

[gabe]

That's not even a poker table homey.

lolllllllllll i googled "poker players at table" or something, didn't bother to look at the table ahahahahha

[gabe]

Which pph do you use is a fair question then.

my pimpin' per hour ratio is uncanny

[gabe]

1-2 today </3

[PunisherIND]

G, what are the picks for tomorrow besides rousey?? who you like, OSP, amagov, lumumba??

[gabe]

OSP, de Randamie, Ricehouse, Tate, bowling, jacare, Anthony Smith

[gabe]

OSP, de Randamie, Ricehouse, Tate, bowling, jacare, Anthony Smith

so, 7 plays... i would take the under OSP fight and Amagov/Berry

OSP ITD + Under 2.5 rounds and Amagov/Berry Under 2.5, even 1.5 if you get that

[MMAbetMASTA]

As I've asked in other threads, why the love for ricehouse? Why you think he beats green / what's the breakdown? Gratsi.