UFC 148: Silva vs. Sonnen II

[MMAbetMASTA]

maia's interview on SD claims he's focusing on a grappling game approach to this match... if that's the case then I think his chances go up dramatically, especially if his weight cut and strength aren't too bad (but then again, he says he's at -188 and this is yesterday, so perhaps I'm wrong but isn't that a lot to cut over the next few days??)... everyone sounds like they're banking on kim to keep it standing and win a stand up match, and if the maia of late came to fight I'd agree, but if he's really planning to go to his 'roots' and grapple fuckk then I think winning a stand up match and keeping it upright is easier said than done...

Really wanna play dhk, my mind and heart say maia is prob gonna be done and will put on another slouchy performance, but I still can't pull the trigger as lesser skilled grapplers than maia have taken kim down and / or put him in bad grappling positions on multiple occasions... If I knew the cut was gonna hurt maia I would be all over dhk play, so will prob wait till the weigh ins if I end up playing that.

[Shafted69]

sonnen cannot beat silva without the help of roids !

[PunisherIND]

Agree for the most part, but your last sentence is something I think people are overlooking about cung - the guy is a wrestler by base and his wrestling is underrated imo..

is it fair to say a fighter has a wrestling base just because he wrestled in junior college?

[MMAbetMASTA]

Why you liking Menjivar / what's your breakdown, Grabaka?

I have been researching this fight, and considering its dead even I'm leaning easton as of right now. Easton's showed tdd issues against dodson (mostly dodson't ability to kick the base leg out when easton would through kicks), and as he slowed in the 3rd - 5th got taken down and has hid back taken repeatedly by beebe - its seems tdd is his biggest weakness. I wouldn't say menji is as good as neither of these men in their td ability or overall wrestling prowess. Menjivar seems to be a positional grappler and good in scrambles, not someone that gets good tds from shots and trips (he's landed 1 in 6 total td attempts since his ufc return. In mma, I think menji is the more overall proven grappler, but on paper easton is bjj by base, two time abu dabi qualifer, and black belt under Irvin. So while minjivar has used his grappling more effective in mma and is more proven in mma with regard to grappling ability, on paper and outside of mma easton sounds like he could possibly be better and that he uses his jitz skills defensivley to keep it a stand up battle.

SO I really think this will come down to the stand up battle and I have to give easton the edge. I really don't think menji is a td machine who can grapple fudge easton. Menji is very tricky and crafty on the feet, but he's also been rocked a good 2-3 times since his return to mma (pickett, albert both had him in trouble). I also think easton might have the best stand up out of anyone he's faced since his return (perhaps not pickett, who I must say menji kept it pretty competitive on the feet). I also think easton's strenght and superb cardio could be problematic and I have to give him an edge there as well. The guy is freakishly strong and has cardio for days. If this mainly plays out on the feet as I suspect, I give it to easton. However, I am scared menji could get a great position in a scramble or sweep a td from a kick or something, possibly sink a sub.

I am kind of scared out of my dhk play, so I'm looking for another non-juicy fav to play.

Love tibau, but have a bad feeling I won't get him below -200 by the time he gets on my book and that's what I capped him at and am willing to pay (hating on those that got the opener!!).

WOuld love to hear your thoughts on this or anyone elses thoughts who are backing menji and why you like him in this fight???

just finished reading another article on the 'controversial' beebe fight and indeed, it sounds like a massive robbery...

Can anyone find this fight online I have yet to find the vid? Curious how well easton did in the first two that people scored for him and what kinds of tds chase executed to get him down... Does anyone have a play by play on that if not a video?? Gratsi.

[MMAbetMASTA]

is it fair to say a fighter has a wrestling base just because he wrestled in junior college?

wrestled most of high school and wrestled junior college, before he started sanshou kickboxing, so I think it would be fair to say it's his true base??

Perhaps its not his bread and butter now, but its his original combat background from what I know therefore his 'base' per se.

[PunisherIND]

wrestled most of high school and wrestled junior college, before he started sanshou kickboxing, so I think it would be fair to say it's his true base??

Perhaps its not his bread and butter now, but its his original combat background from what I know therefore his 'base' per se.

when people talk about a fighter's "base" are they referring to his original martial arts discipline, or are they talking about his bread and butter? honest question. i always assumed it was the latter.

[GunShard]

KO of the night could come from this fight:

[visualrealism]

Other than 5dimes and bodog, any US books allowing parlays yet? Hopefully bookmaker?

Betislands.

[MMAbetMASTA]

when people talk about a fighter's "base" are they referring to his original martial arts discipline, or are they talking about his bread and butter? honest question. i always assumed it was the latter.

I guess its how you interpret it, good question... For me when I refer to a fighter's 'base', its his original combat discipline that I am refering to. Since I was talking about Easton in my other post let's use him as an example.. With easton, I'm sure most people would casually label him a striker, but to me his 'base' or original discipline is actually bjj, not boxing and muai thai which has arguably developed as his 'bread and butter' over his jitz. I'd still call him a 'striker' but his base discipline he started off with and built upon was bjj. When refering to cung I meant that his original combat discipline was wrestling, so I called it his base. While kick boxing is cung's bread and butter and what he's known for, his original 'base' discipline that he built upon was wrestling.

Yet I know people could interpret it differently and refer to 'base' as a fighter's bread and butter / what they're good at and known for. I've always gone by 'base' as their original discipline, but I know people such as yourself and others see it as a fighter's bread and butter. SO I guess its all on how you interpret it.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Would love to get some insight or feedback to my concerns and breakdowns for DHK and Easton... If anyone can respond or give me their breakdowns and insight I'd appreciate it.


Also would love to get some discussion going on fukuda and alessio for the upset... I'm hoping these two continue to go up in value as they have been, I think they both have legit shots to upset, especially allessio. Fukuda could turn it into a clinch war and he'll have a vast cardio edge, and the way he fights it could really take its toll on CP and I could see fukuda start to have success with tds in the latter part of rnd 2 if CP fades. His chin is solid too and the way he dirty boxes and closes the distance, I don't know if CP is gonna have much room / distance and many opportunities to launch his big bombs.. And CP will have no size advantage in this one, fukuda might even be the bigger man. Was hoping he'd be a bigger dog, right now I can't take those odds but still researching and hoping his line continues to gain value.

And really, I'm not too high on main card upsets, but I do think tito, cung and sonnen are still live. I don't pick them to win on paper I got their opponents winning, but wouldn't be surprised if they upset and think there could be value.

Forgot to throw in camoes as well, would never play guillard above -180ish or so against anyone with a sub grappling game, especially one who has never been ko'd and who also hits hard, despite having sloppy striking.... Allessio and fukuda are the only dogs that are my winners on paper, I think guillard, cote, etc will win on paper against the other dogs I"m liking. But with regard to value I think there are a decent amount of dogs that are worthy and think these guys could hit...

[bjpenn85]

I have went a little bit on alessio and fukuda. I think one of this picks hit. Alessio has better standup and is overal just the better fighter as a can see. I havent really broken down the fight but i have seen some bits and pieces of alessio, at current odds, he is underrated, and fukuda should have a wrestling and cardio advantage over constantinos. Fukuda and constantinos are so evenly matched here its very difficult to pick, but at +175 the only right pick imo is to go with the dog as you always do in these situations.

[Beelzebubzy]

I think the play is Fukuda/CP goes the distance.

[PunisherIND]

I guess its how you interpret it, good question... For me when I refer to a fighter's 'base', its his original combat discipline that I am refering to. Since I was talking about Easton in my other post let's use him as an example.. With easton, I'm sure most people would casually label him a striker, but to me his 'base' or original discipline is actually bjj, not boxing and muai thai which has arguably developed as his 'bread and butter' over his jitz. I'd still call him a 'striker' but his base discipline he started off with and built upon was bjj. When refering to cung I meant that his original combat discipline was wrestling, so I called it his base. While kick boxing is cung's bread and butter and what he's known for, his original 'base' discipline that he built upon was wrestling.

Yet I know people could interpret it differently and refer to 'base' as a fighter's bread and butter / what they're good at and known for. I've always gone by 'base' as their original discipline, but I know people such as yourself and others see it as a fighter's bread and butter. SO I guess its all on how you interpret it.

Yea you threw me off when you said he was wrestling based. But it's good to have a different opinion as I never even considered it from your point of view. And it's a fair interpretation as well.

And ill be honest I didn't even know cung had a wrestling background!

[Beelzebubzy]

Roller left Team Takedown, Laimon is not gameplanning for him.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Roller left Team Takedown, Laimon is not gameplanning for him.

what camp did he use to prep for this fight then / who is in his corner, do you know?

[MMAbetMASTA]

I think the play is Fukuda/CP goes the distance.

agree, will prob be juicy as hell tho

[Beelzebubzy]

what camp did he use to prep for this fight then / who is in his corner, do you know?

some small camp in Tulsa Oklahoma,

He is on Junkie Radio. I am guessing Morgan will have a writeup soon

[MMAbetMASTA]

Anyone backing Khabib???

Would love to hear some arguments on that one... I'm liking tibau at anything under -200, but paying that kind of juice against a very unkown fighter has cost me before. Having trouble breaking it down as i don't have much to go off of with regard to research on khabib... Seems like gleison is all around better (outside of perhaps cardio I really give tibau the striking, wrestling, jitz, size and experience edge...). As people have said khabib's striking against kamal was pretty hideous (albeit better than kamals haha!) and wild, where tibau's hands look better and better each fight... He's really mixed up his striking with his tds as of late, where before he seemed to focus primarily on wrestling and grappling in his fights. I also think the guy has some of the most underrated tds in the game, I can't think of an opponent who successfully withstood all his tds, and conversely, I think his tdd is also off the chain and very underrated. I think we can all agree kamal, despite his wrestling background on paper, is not a good mma wrestler both defensively and offensively. Khabib outwrestled kamal, but I'm trying to decide how much faith to put into that ability??

I've read people saying tibau needs to stuff khabib's tds and keep it upright where he will win the stand up, but I think tibau might be better suited to throw on the feet for the minority of the round and go for tds and top control the majority of the round. Judges could always favor the sloppy wild striking versus the technical , less volumed appraoch in a 3 round striking battle...

And lastly, tibau has 15 fights in the ufc and has fought a lot of big names, and even in his losses they were pretty competitive bouts for the most part (his last two losses in 9 fights, imo a clear cut robbery against guillard that tibua should have won, and while I slightly scored it 29-28 for J. Miller, I was surprised one judge didn't see it for tibau as it was damn close). Khabib's comp on the other hand has been less than steller, and like I said I don't know how much faith / credit I can give him for owning kamal...

Do you all think khabib can have success taking tibau down? Do you think he will have success on the feet against tibau? Do you think tibau can take down khabib? I think no on the first two questions and yes on the last (therefore I think tibau should be better everywhere this fight goes), but I'm still unsure as I'm basing this off of limited research on khabib..


Also, does anyone know if Khabib was at AKA for his fight with Shalarous? Or was he not training with those dudes yet??

[MMAbetMASTA]

some small camp in Tulsa Oklahoma,

He is on Junkie Radio. I am guessing Morgan will have a writeup soon

Interesting, thanks... Don't know what to make of this, if anything it could be a bad thing as he won't be surrounded by a large volume many legit mma practicioners and trainers, but then again it could show that he is very focused and determined...

[Thor4140]

http://www.mmafighting.com/ufc/2012/7/4/3136062/chad-mendes-on-ufc-148-foe-cody-mckenzie-the-guys-nuts

[Thor4140]

If i was a betting man i would take
Mendes Looks to easy. Former training partners to boot.
Philippov Guy looks better and better every fight. Always side with good hands who can stop a take down or two
Silva I hate to do it cause i love to see him lose but I just can't see Sonnen pulling it off
Cote- anti Lee play

Usually have a dog or two but don't see it here on this card

[jjaycuny]

What do you think of over 2.5 rounds?

[Thor4140]

What do you think of over 2.5 rounds?

the silva fight?

[jjaycuny]

the silva fight?

yea

[Thor4140]

yea

To tough to call. For Silva's sake i think he better hope it goes under 2.5 rounds. It is either gonna be a massacre by Silva or something pretty similar to the first fight. Flip a coin.

[Vaughany]

I have went a little bit on alessio and fukuda. I think one of this picks hit. Alessio has better standup and is overal just the better fighter as a can see. I havent really broken down the fight but i have seen some bits and pieces of alessio, at current odds, he is underrated, and fukuda should have a wrestling and cardio advantage over constantinos. Fukuda and constantinos are so evenly matched here its very difficult to pick, but at +175 the only right pick imo is to go with the dog as you always do in these situations.

Yep, thinking of doing the same...playing both at equal stakes...see at least one of the two getting a decision

[Vaughany]

Although Phillipou's takedown defence is certainly a lot better, I still wouldnt be so confident that he can stop Fukuda from getting him down eventually. Shouldnt forget tht Joseph Leonidas Henle took him down and choked him out on TUF. Rivera also got him down at one point but Costas locked on a kimura. Catone also obviously outwrestled him for three rounds. Court McGee gets by on heart and determination rather than talent...he's not a great wrestler and more importantly had no idea how to set up a takedown against Costas. And Hamann quite similarly is another who is reasonably good in all areas but again didnt offer a takedown threat and is pretty much a human punching bag with a lot of heart and determination (again)! Granted tho, Phillipou has stepped in on short notice in a couple of fights which may explain the cardio issues

[GunShard]

lol

[gabe]

loving this card

[DeFactoCrippler]

...and the smell of stale FRITOS permeates the air

[gabe]

...and the smell of stale FRITOS permeates the air

lol i still don't get that... i would prefer the smell of fritos over regular BO. but my current Old Spice GAME DAY keeps me smellin' like Michael Dudikoff 24/7

that didn't even make sense, but respek.

[MMAbetMASTA]

lol

that's great... LOL.... I love this guy, he's naturally one of the funniest dudes I've ever seen. He's a douche and a bit of a tool, but I gotta respect his style of humor and the way he delivers it lol...

[Vitooch]

Not completely sold on Fukuda at these odds.

Make no mistake, Costa possesses MUCH better boxing than Fukuda, and could possibly finish Fukuda standing. Fukuda tends to tense up when he punches, appearing a bit robotic to me. Costa on the other hand is a much sharper boxer whose punches seem to be thrown more fluently and naturally. With that more technical boxing comes much more punching power for Costa.

Costa's TDD has looked much better as of late, and his cardio is on par with Fukuda's.

[Beelzebubzy]

Sonnen is 20 pounds over
dolce to the rescue?

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Sonnen is 20 pounds over
dolce to the rescue?

where did you hear this?