I agree the fight should be much closer to evens, but I disagree and think tavares has better stand up and better ground game at this point. Offensively I give hallman the grappling edge, but tavares can match his size and I don't see denis being too effective with his offensive grappling in this, I think he's gonna get blasted on the feet for three rounds. But at +200 I agree there is some nice value and the line should def be closer to evens.
-
Comment -
Sure, one can easily make a case for thavares here. His strong, aggressive, and his standup skills has developed quite nicely as well. His chin is a bit questionable maybe, but he took a decent punch from stout in the third round and recovered pretty good, although he has been severly KOed in the past. The type of lights out KO that we often see with people with weak chins. Its possible that thavares can take this by decision if hes able to keep the fight on the feet and defend hallmans takedowns. Its just an absurd line that i cant walk past.Comment -
adding value bet:
3.5 units on shogun Rua @ 2.70 to win - 5,95 units
Comment -
BJ
Thoughts on Browne/Big Foote?
I will most likely be adding Fight not to go distance in Parlays and possibly Browne by KO, would like to hear your thoughts thoughComment -
I took Big Footy 200 @ +235Comment -
I havent thought about it that much. Im basically not interested as both fighters have kind of disappointed me. Travis in the rob broughton and cheik kongo fight, and antonio silva against cain. The price is way to juice for brownie, it can end up being a lackluster decision were the judges can **** the result, or an easy finish from brownie. The ladder is obviously the likely but im not willing to put my money on it, at this price. Not even at -200. For me the value is on silva, but not to the extent that im willing to buy him for anything under +300, and i cant get that. Even then it would have been a small play. Im passing on this play quite frankly.Comment -
adding value bet:
2 units on John the one Maguire @ 3.2 to win - 4,7 unitsComment -
Adding:
7,1 units on Matt wiman @ 2.37 to win - 9,8 units
As long as Matt wiman stay away from Sass ground game, this is borderline a mismatch on the feet. I just pray to god that he wont try to control him on the ground like he has done in the past with cole miller for instance. If i hear matt wiman prefight talking about how he is comfortable whatever the fight takes place, im arbing out of the play immediately.Comment -
ha yeah, and Wiman is unfortunately the type of stubborn fighter who will do that just to prove a point! I'll be hedging with Sass by SUb or SOTN no matter what...dont see Sass winning in any other way unless it's somehow like the GSot/JoeDaddy fight were majority takes place on ground and Sass does same as GSot did and controls all the action despite being on his back for sustained periods. Highly unlikely though with the pace Wiman sets...he's either going to stifle or get caught in a crazy sub if it does go to the ground.Comment -
Yeah. got to have a hedge on sass submission. Its unheard to play otherwise. Its an exciting clash of styles and probably a cool fight to watch to. Pretty easily capped as well.Comment -
I get the feeling Wimen is going to smash Sass but betting against Sass has burn't me in the past.Comment -
The republican douche bag screwed me over big time.I even went big on volkmann. Republicans are all alike. Dumb ignorant douch bags!Comment -
Only a fool would bet against Sass while he's still undefeated.
Profited huge off him over his Johnson and Volkmann wins. 15 mins is plenty of time for him to find something... I would only be worried if he were facing an elite striker. Love Wiman, but gotta take Sassangle.Comment -
One trick ponies do not work well in mma
only 3 have succeeded
rousey
fitch
askren
the rest have evolved.
Wiman is too experienced to fall into a dumb mistake that Johnson and George bush cousin fell intoComment -
He shouldnt, but you never know. Cody have stil survived in the ufc with fighters well aware that the only trick he has is his guillotine.Comment -
Volkmann had a better chance of winning than Wiman does. He's too experienced to make a dumb mistake like that, too...
Allow me to point out that anybody who thinks Paul Sass is a one trick pony just does not know what he is talking about. Yes, Rousey is a one trick pony with her armbar, and Cody is one with his guillotine, but Paul Sass is not a one trick pony with his triangle... He is a dangerous man to go to the ground with. He can submit opponents with MANY, MANY submissions, not just a triangle. He is dangerous with every submission. A guy who could EASILY get you into a triangle, guillotine, RNC, armbar, kneebar, kimura, omoplata is by no means a "one trick pony" - hell, i just listed 7 "tricks" he could easily lock up...Comment -
My gut's been telling me Wiman, but I gotta be smart and play Sass... Wiman likes taking the fight to the ground for gnp, I just don't think he will be able to beat up Sass on the ground. Even if he tries to keep it standing, all Sass has to do is pull guard... $A$$ANGLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
I'm liking me some sassy angles too!Comment -
What if Wiman comes out with some weird angles ala Liddell?Comment -
betting wise it doesnt make much difference, you will have to play sass sub to not lose money. To just play sass round 1, is way to risky, and the same can be said with playing sass sob of the night.Comment -
Comment -
May have missed this, but I'm assuming the lines for Sass by submission aren't out yet? It is surely going to only be marginally better value than his SU line?Comment -
Yeah not out yet and probably wont be much better as you sayComment -
Surely better, if confident, to just take a punt on Wiman or get on Sass instead? Going to have to hedge a pretty substantial amount for it to be worthwhile, gonna eat into the winnings from Wiman if he gets the nod.Comment -
yeah i know. I think the best way here is to cover some of the loss on bookmakers livebetting section. If wiman seems to get a good hold of sass in the first round , maybe a decent opportunity arises to bet on sass sub or just SU. Or maybe sass round 1 is quite good strategy. You can then liveplay a loosing sass in the second or third round....maybe thats exactly what i do....
Am pretty happy about the bet anyway. Wiman is a stud. i can afford to loose money on one of my absolute favourite fighters anyway.Comment -
Good shout. It's annoying living in the UK - I'm not usually about on Saturday nights so rarely get the chance to watch the events live. None of my mates are at all into MMA or I'd probably organise to watch it with a few people - last time I did that was UFC 148, and they all gave up and went to sleep after the uneventful Menjivar v Easton fight and then the two ridiculously short fights after. It's a shame - if that had happened to be UFC 129 for example, I would have probably made some new fans haha.
The point of what I said being, I never end up being able to get on the live bets.Comment -
Comment -
LOLComment -
its a shame, i always try to make new fans by letting friends stay up all night. But, they have no motivation to complete a ufc event in the middle of the night, for me...i could a have real issue with paying my rent the following month. Its an incentive issue rather.
Anyway, livebetting is really really important for me. I usually earn, another 10-20 units extra on them every event. But, its very important that you dont play -300. They will sooner or later burn you. I have had huge success with playing the decision prop late in 1.round..@ +4-800. Play small, and often, rather than big and just sometimes. For some, this is the exact opposite strategy for playing straight. Stay away from narcotis, and for gods sake stay away from alcohol. Do only bet on the things you actually like, there will be plenty of opportunities,maybe even in the next fight even thought it seems boring and uneventful on paper.Comment -
ComedyComment -
Vaughany is a one trick pony with arbs
And sass is a one trick pony in the sense he has jitz and no other aspect in mma
bubzy is a one trick pony with dry comedy that only the butter toothed brits get here
nunya is a one trick pony with alegrbraComment -
Comment
