BJPENNs thread

**bjpenn85** · 09-29-12, 12:39 PM

12 units on Gunnar Nelson, Struve/Miocic not going the distance @ 1.65 to win - 6.8 units

**bjpenn85** · 09-29-12, 06:00 PM

Struve vs Miocic

Result: +1.85

In reality, my biggest win to date. I was big on stefan struve but forgot to include it. Who cares, im rich.

**bjpenn85** · 10-05-12, 11:41 AM

UFC ON FX 5- BIGFOOT VS BROWNE

13.4 units on Browne, GSP decision @ 2.43 to win - 19.1 units
6 units on Jake Ellenberger inside distance @ 4.22 to win - 19.3 units
6 units on A.Simpson @ 2.45 to win - 8.7 units
6 units on Jussier da silva @ 2.86 to win - 11.1 units
6 units on D.Castillo @ 2.45 to win - 8.7 units
2 units Jay hieron @ 5.0 to win - 8 units
2.5 units on Jake Ellenberger dec 3.0 to win back - 5 units

**bjpenn85** · 10-09-12, 03:51 PM

UFC ON FX 5- BIGFOOT VS BROWNE

Results -34.4 units

What can i say? One injury, two comebacks, and one faulty underdog pick. These events show up once in a while, and as long as it only happens once in a while its acceptable.

**Vaughany** · 10-09-12, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

UFC ON FX 5- BIGFOOT VS BROWNE

Results -34.4 units

What can i say? One injury, two comebacks, and one faulty underdog pick. These events show up once in a while, and as long as it only happens once in a while its acceptable.

yeah very unlucky with Simpson and Castillo...if I hadn't already been on a terrible run I would of played them too.

**bjpenn85** · 10-09-12, 04:19 PM

Thanks broh. Were back at it this weekend..starting with..

**bjpenn85** · 10-09-12, 04:21 PM

UFC 153

17.5 units on Glover.T, Minotauro N., Anderson Silva @ 1.83 to win - 14.4 units
10 units on Reza Madadi @ 1.92 to win - 9.2 units

**Vaughany** · 10-09-12, 04:29 PM

Nice line on Madadi...I'd play tht if wasnt limited to £20 on unibet!

**bjpenn85** · 10-09-12, 04:34 PM

Unibet are always off on tricky fights.This once again confirmes it. Besides that, theyr pretty juicy if you ask me, although they really penetrate up on props now and then.

**bjpenn85** · 10-09-12, 05:19 PM

adding:

5 more units on reza madadi @ 1.92 to win - 4.6 units

**bjpenn85** · 10-09-12, 06:58 PM

Adding:

20,6 units on Anderson Silva by KO @ 1.90 to win - 18.6 units

**bjpenn85** · 10-10-12, 04:11 AM

Adding:

3 units on Erick Silva tko @ 4.75 to win - 11.2 units

**bjpenn85** · 10-10-12, 04:12 AM

Adding:

3 units on Jon fitch dec @ 2.58 to win - 4.7 units

**bjpenn85** · 10-10-12, 05:58 PM

Adding:

30 units on R.Bedadi to win - 21 units
21 units on C.Marcello to win - 35,7 units

If marcello win, get 5,7 units back.

**bjpenn85** · 10-10-12, 05:59 PM

adding:

2.25 units on Camozzi, Bezerra @ 3.0 to win - 4,50 units

**bjpenn85** · 10-10-12, 06:01 PM

Adding:

5 units on Anderson silva sub @ 4.5 to win back - 17,5 units
2 units on Dave herman wins in round 1. @ 5.0 to win - 6 units

**bjpenn85** · 10-10-12, 06:02 PM

not 6 but 8 units..

**PunisherIND** · 10-10-12, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Adding:

3 units on Jon fitch dec @ 2.58 to win - 4.7 units

5dimes currently has fitch dec @ +185. i like the value there.

i also like the value in not fitch itd @ -885. definitely parlay fodder.

**bjpenn85** · 10-10-12, 06:27 PM

Thanks dude. made a small play. I think its either jon fitch dec or silva KO, although i cant get the thought out of my head that silva wins a split dec, where he tags fitch twice but loses 3.round.

**PunisherIND** · 10-10-12, 07:09 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Thanks dude. made a small play. I think its either jon fitch dec or silva KO, although i cant get the thought out of my head that silva wins a split dec, where he tags fitch twice but loses 3.round.

yea, those are the two most likely outcomes, but i think theres enough of a chance that silva wins a decision that i wouldnt play fitch by dec too heavily. people have mentioned the very real possibility of the crowd influencing quick standups. hometown decisions. etc. tough fight to call.

**DirtyX** · 10-11-12, 12:41 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

yea, those are the two most likely outcomes, but i think theres enough of a chance that silva wins a decision that i wouldnt play fitch by dec too heavily. people have mentioned the very real possibility of the crowd influencing quick standups. hometown decisions. etc. tough fight to call.

Gotta go with E. Silva here. As I said before, I am just not a believer in Fitch. He could Possibly put on a lay N pray clinic, but i wouldn't be surprised if E. Silva makes a major statement here by completely dominating Fitch all together. Been wrong a lot lately though...

**bjpenn85** · 10-11-12, 02:44 AM

Silva probably wins, but how is difficult to predict. GSP landed flush so many times and fitch still was able to take it. Hendricks punch was perfectly placed on the chin, so no one can argue that fitch has weak chin from what we have seen. He also took mike pierces shot and still survived, even though its a long time since ive seen that fight. I def think this is a typical go with the younger fighter type of scenario. Fitch has also talked about being entertaining in a interview i read the other day. Maybe he planning on KOing silva or getting KTFO?

**snufflyjoe** · 10-11-12, 03:19 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

5dimes currently has fitch dec @ +185. i like the value there.

i also like the value in not fitch itd @ -885. definitely parlay fodder.

yeah my book has E Silva by KO at +500 and Fitch Decision +170 . I played it so if fitch gets a decision I don't lose anything but if E silva gets the ko I win a nice chunk of change

**bjpenn85** · 10-11-12, 03:41 AM

which book?

**gabe** · 10-11-12, 05:02 AM

There is a decent chance Fitch could finish Silva in the 3rd

**bjpenn85** · 10-11-12, 05:10 AM

Career wise i think that would be an excellent decision on his part. I think we can say its a decent chance fitch probably wont finish silva, but i really hope he does.

**DirtyX** · 10-11-12, 01:58 PM

How do you two see Fitch finishing Silva? Fitch hasn't finished a fight since 2007, and hasn't TKO'ed anyone since like 2005.. If you really think that is even in the realm of possibility, then you should bet that prop. It's prob like +850 on 5-Dimes. I think there is a better chance at Bonnar Subbing Anderson than Fitch finishing any fight, especially Erick Silva.

**gabe** · 10-11-12, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

5dimes currently has fitch dec @ +185. i like the value there.

i also like the value in not fitch itd @ -885. definitely parlay fodder.

fitch could finish it late, silva gasses

**bjpenn85** · 10-14-12, 04:28 AM

UFC 153

Results:
+22.9 units

Back again after last weekend, too bad its one month to next ufc card.

**gabe** · 10-14-12, 04:41 AM

Originally posted by DirtyX

How do you two see Fitch finishing Silva? Fitch hasn't finished a fight since 2007, and hasn't TKO'ed anyone since like 2005.. If you really think that is even in the realm of possibility, then you should bet that prop. It's prob like +850 on 5-Dimes. I think there is a better chance at Bonnar Subbing Anderson than Fitch finishing any fight, especially Erick Silva.

Fitch came close to both TKOing and subbing Silva, but Bonnar came nowhere near subbing Anderson.

**feijao** · 10-14-12, 06:17 AM

Originally posted by gabe

fitch could finish it late, silva gasses

good call

**bjpenn85** · 10-18-12, 12:35 PM

Adding:

Bellator 77
6 units on Tirloni, Franklin to win - 7,2 units

First and foremost:I too often penetrates up on bellator plays. My main concern is that Nazare can lock up tirloni at the cage and hold him there for a longer periods and way win rounds. In tirlonis last fight he did show very good clinch game, but he didnt seem to be in any hurry when stalled against the cage. Although i think the bellator referees has been quite good raising fighters up when there is no action, or against the fence, there is a possibility that nazare steel rounds this way. Besides from that, i think tirloni can reverese takedown attempts from nazare, apply damage from top position and be the agressor standing up. But..i very often get this bellator picks wrong, but i think if this goes the distance tirloni can do enough to make the judges stand behind him in this one. If the fight finishes im pretty sure its not nazare.

In regards two both men in the tdd department, something i noted while breaking down this fight is that Nazare has shown pretty weak takedown defence IMO while tirlonis appears quite good. Standing up this may be a quite even battle even though i feel like tirloni edges nazare here. Tirloni has lost two fights, against benson, and against richard hawn. No fakking shame in that.

**bjpenn85** · 10-21-12, 02:01 AM

Franklin vs LEE 10 th nov

7,4 units on D.H.Kim @ 1.66 to win - 4.8 units
6 units on Tirloni, Franklin to win - 7,2 units

**bjpenn85** · 10-22-12, 07:15 AM

Adding more on DYK:

2,3 units on D.Y.Kim @ 1.57 to win - 1,31 units

**bjpenn85** · 10-22-12, 05:23 PM

adding:

20 units on Barack Obama @ 1.53 to win - 10.5 units