BJPENNs thread

**bjpenn85** · 11-10-12, 01:50 PM

Thanks guys. Ready for next event.

**bjpenn85** · 11-15-12, 03:36 AM

UFC 154

Advise: NO PLAY

This is the typical bingo event, where everything goes straight to hell.Costa should win, but at that price when nick ring has the home field advantage, thats a no play. GSP is probably 95% or else he wouldnt have competed so a small play on decision is maybe justified. Carmont is also ok, as parlay filler, but the price is juicy.Makdessi is tempting, but the takedown threat from stout is concerning. The same goes for delkins over siler. Griggs and diabate is not going the distance, so maybe a play here, but SU they are both unpredictable, because they are mediocre MMA fighters. Gashimov shouldnt be that big of a underdog from what i have seen on youtube, but the chance of him underperforming in his first ufc fight is huge. Carvalho should win, again, juicy. Riddle is tempting, but again, f juicy. So besides the parlay i have with carmont am not playing this card. Good luck 2 those of you that have the balls to play!

**bjpenn85** · 11-19-12, 02:05 PM

UFC ON FOX 5 - Dec 8th.

23 units on Rory mac, Diaz/smooth goes the dist @ evens - 23 units
11.4 units on Carmont, A.Gustafsson @ 2.07 to win - 12,1 units

Hedges so far:

2 units on Shogun TKO @ 6.50 to win - 11.9 units
0.8 units on Shogun Sub @ 15 to win - 11.2 units
4,2 units on BJ.Penn insid dist @ 5.24 to win - 18,1 units

**PunisherIND** · 11-19-12, 03:21 PM

damn bj, you betting against bj? lol. seriously though, i see you hedged with bj itd -- you're not concerned at all about bj stealing a decision?

this is a tough fight to hedge imo. i can see bj winning itd or by decision.

**bjpenn85** · 11-19-12, 05:33 PM

I dont see how BJ can win a KO or a submission other than in the first round. Rory will probably choose a similar strategy to what GSP implemented IMO. If hes successful with such a game plan its very possible he can slice bj and win a tko. 3 rounds are probably not enough tho but i cant really see BJ Penn win a decision here. "i quit...is that a yes BJ...yes rogan, i quit" He will probably be back again...

**bjpenn85** · 11-20-12, 11:49 AM

Adding:
UFC 155
10 units on Alan Belcher @ 2.30 to win - 13 units

**Beelzebubzy** · 11-20-12, 12:29 PM

Nice bj got the same plays except my hedge for bj will be Ko of night and round 1

**bjpenn85** · 11-20-12, 05:22 PM

Sounds good. Rorys standup is probably as good as bj at this point. 2 years ago he outclassed carlos condit.

**bjpenn85** · 11-29-12, 08:01 PM

update on plays:

UFC ON FOX 5
33,3 units on Rory Mac, benson/diaz goes dist @ to win - 33.3 units
17.10 units on F.Carmont, Rory Mac @ 1.82 to win - 14.2 units
11.4 units on F.Carmont, Gustaffson @ 2.07 to win - 12.1 units

Hegdes
10.2 units on BJ.Penn to win inside dist @ 6.16 to win back - 53 units
2 units on Rua TKO @ 6.50 to win back - 11.9 units
0.8 units on Rua Sub @ 15 to win back - 11.2 units

**bjpenn85** · 12-08-12, 10:43 PM

UFC ON FOX 5 results:+46.6 units

Overall result on this thread:+ 170 units

or in jesus christ format =+$2971

**Vaughany** · 12-08-12, 11:01 PM

Good stuff bro

**bjpenn85** · 12-13-12, 04:44 PM

UFC ON FX 6

11.4 units on Lombard, Pierson @ 3.08 to win - 23 units
11.4 units on Cody Donovan @ 2.15 to win - 13.4 units
1.8 units on Seth Baz @ 4.0 to win - 5,4 units

**bjpenn85** · 12-13-12, 04:47 PM

Breakdown:

-Lombard should be able to stop takedown and KO paul harrys
- Pierson wins the stand up battle and have good enough takedown defence to stand and bang.
- Pierce is probably a top 5 welter weight, but seth should be +200 range, not +300. Very small bet here because i expekt pierce to win a decision.

**bjpenn85** · 12-13-12, 04:57 PM

And last but not least donovon. Very difficult to assess on which level he is. Only fights available was some old shit on youtube. It seems like he getting a favourable matchup here. Nick penner looked horrible in his last fight. I dont know if he was gassed, injured. Im banking on whoever joins the ufc will win against nick penner.

**PunisherIND** · 12-13-12, 05:00 PM

are you that confident in pearson that you chose to parlay him? just curious why you didnt play him and lombard SU.

**bjpenn85** · 12-13-12, 05:18 PM

More the other way around. When i do parlays its because im not confident enough to play them SU. It probably goes to a decision so im not going to bet to much on pierson. But he should win.

**PunisherIND** · 12-13-12, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

More the other way around. When i do parlays its because im not confident enough to play them SU. It probably goes to a decision so im not going to bet to much on pierson. But he should win.

gotcha. so you're not crazy about lombard either, then?

**bjpenn85** · 12-13-12, 05:33 PM

I have a tendency to penetrate up when im betting people at -200. I dont know why, im hesitant only because of that. Its very irrational, i know, but as long as i hedge with paul harrys inside dist i its a no brainer actually.Ill probably end up putting a lot on Lombard.

**PunisherIND** · 12-13-12, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

I have a tendency to penetrate up when im betting people at -200. I dont know why, im hesitant only because of that. Its very irrational, i know, but as long as i hedge with paul harrys inside dist i its a no brainer actually.Ill probably end up putting a lot on Lombard.

cheers man. just wanted to understand you're reasoning. i really like lombard. will be one of my bigger plays su and itd. on the fence with pearson-soto, but leaning pearson. if i end up making a play, its going to be very small, so i guess in my mind it makes sense to play pearson by himself so it wouldnt bust a parlay.

**bjpenn85** · 12-13-12, 05:44 PM

sounds like a smart play.

**gabe** · 12-13-12, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

And last but not least donovon. Very difficult to assess on which level he is. Only fights available was some old shit on youtube. It seems like he getting a favourable matchup here. Nick penner looked horrible in his last fight. I dont know if he was gassed, injured. Im banking on whoever joins the ufc will win against nick penner.

My thoughts exactly...

**bjpenn85** · 12-13-12, 06:39 PM

Penner is capable to make this even tho, had an awesome sweep that the hippo was able to counter after the next takedown. Maybe i buy back some of it. I cant livebet out of trouble because this is the first fight of the night. There are other lines on the card im more confident so am a bit hesitant to wager too much on this bum fight.

**bjpenn85** · 12-13-12, 06:43 PM

TUF 16 FINALE

15 units on Shane del @ 1.65 to win - 9.6 units
5.6 units on James head @ 2.6 to win - 8.1 units

**Dwil125** · 12-13-12, 10:26 PM

How do you see James head winning?

**illmatick** · 12-13-12, 11:07 PM

on James Head as well, i'd put him closer to +140

**gabe** · 12-13-12, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

on James Head as well, i'd put him closer to +140

I capped him at +125

**bjpenn85** · 12-14-12, 01:54 AM

Defending takedowns, and outboxing pyle. I think its a 50 50 fight. Maybe slight edge to James head standing. Mike pyle may have the edge on the ground.

**Dwil125** · 12-14-12, 02:22 AM

If he can take him down he should definitely have the edge there, im not playing the fight I was just wondering but gl those are good odds for a 50-50 fight. I'm on Lombard tomorrow also good call

**bjpenn85** · 12-14-12, 07:09 AM

adding:

10 units on James Head @ 2.75 to win - 17.5 units

**bjpenn85** · 12-15-12, 07:11 AM

UFC ON FX 6 Results: +34.6 units
Total winnings: +204.6 units

**bjpenn85** · 12-15-12, 01:45 PM

TUF 16 FINALE

34 units on T.Elliott @ 1.60 to win - 20.4 units
15 units on Shane del @ 1.65 to win - 9.6 units
15 units on James head @ 2.6 to win - 25.5 units

Dont have time to break down the fights.

**feijao** · 12-15-12, 03:33 PM

wow, that confident in elliot?

**bjpenn85** · 12-15-12, 04:09 PM

I think elliott is better all around. Hes quicker and has a more varied attack. He will stay in center of the ring and pressure papazian. Im pretty confident he will win. Pretty decent odds to get for a guy that have the advantage both standing and on the ground.

**NunyaBidness** · 12-15-12, 04:11 PM

First time for Paps at this weight class, too, if I'm not mistaken.

**gabe** · 12-15-12, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

First time for Paps at this weight class, too, if I'm not mistaken.

I think he's gonna KO Elliott.