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i got ferguson palhares and denis. the juice is more than i would like to pay but i have them all as 2-1 favs at least. i dont like parlays, playin them all strait up. couple units each. i dnt thnk lines will get any better. if my 1st picks lose i usually throw more on the last fight.Comment -
Ya I always have my laptop out while I am watching the fights. I try and watch them live, and If I lose my early picks, I will go on tilt and double down. My book won't let me do parlays in MMA, but I don't really like those anyways. I always try and play a couple fights straight up for each card. I already have a line play on Hendricks at -110 and I bet on Diaz as well so I don't think I can pay that price for Palhares or Tony.Comment -
alot of people dont like betting on guys from tuf but ferguson has impressed me and johnson never has. johnson surely is getting better and i think hes a decent fighter but ferguson has a height reach and experience advantage. small play for meComment -
^Bet on Ferguson
He will 80 % win that fight
The only thing Johnson can do is explode on takedowns but I see him backing up the entire fight with the more than good chance of getting caught with some solid strikes which most definitely can put him out.Comment -
line might get a lil better but favs usually skyrocket after weigh ins. personally dont c this line movin much either way. i got him at -250 this mornin cuz didnt want to risk it reachin -300. wouldnt play it over 3 to 1Comment -
i don't know and i don't think it matters because it won't get that much better unless something really stupid happensComment -
Will probably stay -250 to -300 range. TUF winners pretty much always this big a favourite and fading Blackzillians seems to be the in thing currently!Comment -
Weigh-ins bout to begin.....
BTW, Sportbet have Miller/Diaz OVer 4.5 at -185 and distance at -195. Should be the other way round I guess!
Also got Palhares by sub at -120 and Palhares inside at -108 or something!Comment -
Vemola shredded!Comment -
Garza much taller than BermudezComment -
6'1 at 145 is ridiculous. he's gonna get trucked thoughComment -
ha Belcher looks like he's trying to convince himself he's not scared!Comment -
OOOO Dolce shiitin it!Comment -
barry at -185 nowComment -
Ma boiiiiiii Martin RooneyyComment -
Massenzio gettin some action after weigh-insComment -
anyone find a working video of the Hendricks vs Story fight?Comment -
Luca Fury is saying he's put $3500 on a parlay of Chandler, Rio and Dodson on Bookmaker. Can anybody else put tht much on it? I just tried it to see if it was possible and I'm limited to $500. Is BM same as sportbet in tht u can bet again when the line moves? Been so long since I used BM tht I cant rememberComment -
Garza getting action as wellComment -
I'm not sure. I don't really do crazy parlays like that. Usually BM doesn't allow you to even parlay until the day of the event though. I'm fairly sure you can hit it multiple times after the line moves, but I have never tried to put that much on a parlay.Comment -
Ha Not Barry by sub now -556! Put tht in a parlay. People really believe in ADCC Barry!Comment -
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Alright motherfuckersssssssss!!!!!!!
Been a busy week so haven't had a chance to give my two cents on here, but you best know LEGZ is gonna post his thoughts and long ass breakdowns (I would like it if you'd all call me LEGZ not betmasta - I hate this user name and regret it with all my heart haha)... I've done my reasearch, now need to finalize my bets and post my thoughts.
SOOOOOO PUMPED FOR ACTION THIS WEEKEND FUCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Thank you, V!
I thought I was going crazy reading all the prediction articles and going through these threads...
I've read time and time again Alan has great tdd - LOL... the guy has arguably the worst tdd out of anyone palhares has faced.
He's seriously been taken down by anyone that wanted to take him down. Santiago and Goivia didn't try to, and mcdonald had little succes but I wouldn't call mcdonalds td special by any means.
Here is the little write up I did yesterday on this fight below - its really rough and long and might be hard to understand, sorry. Post your thoughts and argue it up, I wanna know where i'm wrong!!!
Palhares - I know I'm going against a lot of people on here, but I highly disagree with the arguments I've seen for belcher. I actually think that toquinhos past opponents, stylistically, have a better chance than alan. At least on paper, branch and miller are superior wrestlers and grapplers, and not as much so, but massenzio I think is also better with wrestling (obviously not grappling, after he blew what would have been an easy 30-27 against stann!!!).
This fight’s outcom all comes down to a simple fact - Belcher has some horrendous tdd.
In fact, his fight with Mcdonald was the first fight he had defended consecutive take downs (and was on his way down from a mcdonald trip until it looked like belcher got the better end of a scramble). In every other fight he's been in during his time with zuffa he has been taken down, except for his santiago and gouivia fights as they never even tried to take the man down. I'm not going to go fight by fight to describe each takedown, but let's just say he's been taken down repeatedly by guys with half the grappling and wrestling ability of toquino. Toquino has some sick wrestling skills that compliment his ridiculous jitz game. His wrestling is highly underrated, D. Miller isn't a great wrestler by any means and is a small MW, but he's collegiate, accomplished and far better than belcher imo with regard to wrestling...The way he tosses people around is crazy (I mean he picked up D Miller and hendo over his head and slammed their asses down - what a freak!@!) I think the best grappler alan's got a win over was herman (who I think definitely should have been given the W for that fight). Furthermore, the next best grapplers belcher faced he lost to - grove and okami... Its insane the way grove man handled belcher in that fight and completely schooled him both with tds and ground transitions. I realize it was long ago, and alan has probably improved leaps and bounds since then. BUt the cote fight wasn't that long ago, and cote took his ass down 3 times and was able to pass to superior positions twice before getting swept or getting overzealous on that kimura he was working. That won't happen against palhares - he's the best grappler in the division and belcher will be in a world of trouble against him I think. All black belts aren't created equal - I'm a firm believer in this philosophy... Alan might be a black belt and might have subbed / done well with other black belts, but Palhares' black belt was awared from another universe.... And this 'one trick pony' talk is BS!! The dude has SICK jitz EVERYWHERE, just because he resorts to his heel hooks / legs locks doesn't mean he's lacking other parts of his grappling, youtube his grappling transitions from different comps or training, or watch the salavary fight if you think he's a one trick pony...
All in all - Kang (effortlessly took him down and was winning every minute of that fight before doing the typical Kang sub **** up), Cote, Herman (takedowns landed every round), akiyama (takedowns / trips every round…a gassed akiyama in the 3rd mind you), and obviously his two losses to grove and okami, all took alan down and a few of them put alan in bad spots... Imagine what's gonna happen when toquino, a guy a clear level above these men in terms of pure grappling, is on top of belcher... I do think that alan's bjj is underrated, but again, its been effective against guys who are not elite level grapplers (and the dudes who are arguably elite level that he faced - he lost to - save for herman but I think herman clearly won that fight). I’ve heard people say this is a step up in competition for toquinho, but I disagree and think he’s fought much better guys in the past. If anything this is a mountainous hurdle up the ladder for belcher.
And those banking on belcher to dominate in the stand up - his stand up really isn't that good imo. Save for the gouvia fight, I can't recall him putting down someone on the feet. He plods forward, doesn't have the greatest movement, isn't the quickest guy, and seems to always get hit / has sloppy defense. He has nasty and powerful kicks, and I am concerned about one of them going across the side of toquino's head, as he's a short dude. I'm also concerned that toquino was so easily wobbled by D miller, and I believe belcher hits much, much harder than Dan. Before I thought alan was the best striker that toquinhos fought, but then I fogot aobut hendo and linhares who I think are better than alan on the feet (who he survived against)… So there is some concern on the feet, but considering belcher was getting tagged left and right by gouvia before he put him down in what was a sloppy slug fest, and although winning, he was having 'meh' success on the feet against cote (if anything cote landed the best shots on the feet in that fight), and even akiyama went toe to toe and did more than hold his own against belcher. I don't think toquino's striking is all that bad either when compared to all of these men, including belchers. Little stumps got some nice power and seems to be ever improving). Is it worse than blecher’s stand up? Of course. Does belcher’s edge make it a game changer? I don’t think so. Again, my only concern is the chin and height / reach of toquinho, but I don't think belcher is that devastating a striker that the stand up game is gonna scare me away and give alan the win.
I see people saying -300 is crazy, but I disagree. IF anything, its a tad generous me thinks. He's now at -280 on my book and I'm hoping he might drop some more. I think -350 is what I would have put toquinho at. If alan had more raw ko power, moved a little better / had better footwork on the feet, and just had a little above decent tdd, then I would not be paying such juice on toquino and would agree that -300 is ridiculous...
But these are the skills he needs to win and I just don't think he has them nor can make it happen. I think toquino is gonna get alan down when he wants, and alan will have a beast on top of him - the likes of which he has never faced before... and I don't think alan is craftyy enough on the feet to move around and pepper toquinho up to avoid getting in close / sprawl n brawling... I think if it hits the 3rd round toquinho might be so slow that belcher could put him in danger, keep distance, and light him up, but I'm willing to risk that scenario won’t happen and will have hopefully subbed belcher by then! (and I do think he will sub alan - the two dudes he didn't sub: Dan miller - never been finished, and horn - grappling pioneer for mma - both are all around better grapplers than alan imo).
Palhares 1st round submission. I’ll eat my words as usual if I lose and give props to the belcher backers, but I’m fairly confident in this pick.
PLease tell me where you disagree and where I'm wrong, insight is always appreciated and will help my decision making!!Last edited by MMAbetMASTA; 05-04-12, 08:03 PM.Comment -
Nick Denis thoughts
Roland has shown nothing special in the striking department, and his tds might be a bit underrated but I wouldn’t call them anything special. Denis is very athletic, highly intelligent, and a power based precision striking karate-ka (the dude has been training karate since he was a kid, and is working on his PHD in bio chem for god’s sake!!!). This all spells bad news for roland who seems to have a suspect chin and very suspect striking defense, which is a gift for a striker the style likes of denis. I am concerned that I really haven’t seen denis have his wrestling put to the test, and from what I read his sub loss he made an error in a scramble and got subbed (was winning too I guess up until that point), so I can’t say with supreme confidence that denis has legit tdd – and that is a big question mark to pay -280 on. However, I haven’t seen enough from rolan’s tds that make me believe denis has to have solid tdd skills to defend. I think if he has even ‘decent / mediocre’ tdd, coupled with his wicked striking skills, then he should be able to keep this on the feet and completely outclass roland on the feet to another quick ko/tko.
I am a bit concerned that denis gets a little wild with his striking which could open the opportunity for a scramble that will either lead to a dominant TD or a sub similar to his one sub loss (which he lost in a scramble while getting wild in the clinch, at least from what I read on that fight).
HOWEVER, I capped denis at -220 so he opened at -280 on my site which is a bit too pricey. Wish I could hedge with roland by sub becauser that's the only chance he has imo..
Probably a no play unless someone can add something to this and convince me to lay a line down!!!
Denis 1st round ko/tko…Comment -
Cholish / Castillo Thoughts
On paper Cholish is the better wrestler as a D1 (no title or ranked status, but D1 nonetheless ) , but I think castillo’s mma wrestling might be a tad better, especially defensively. However, Castillo has shown to have poor sub defense. I wouldn’t call it horrible, but its certainly a weak spot in his game. Cholish is under one of the best grappling trainers in the world imo, Danaher, and also comes from a very well rounded camp and I think his boxing skill growth under zhab has shown in his last fight. Cholish’ transitions on the ground are beautiful and fluid, both on top and bottom, and he seems to have great sweeping ability which Castillo is def prone too. I do think Castillo will get cholish down if he wants, Cholish’ tdd looked suspect for a D1 wrestler in his last fight. However, I think cholish is more than capable of giving danny fits if he sits in his guard, and he’ll probably get a sweep and get one quickly on Castillo. Therefore I wouldn’t be surprised if Castillo plans to strike. If he does, I am not sold the least bit on his striking ability. I think cholish has shown solid hands and if anything I only give danny a small edge on the feet, if that. I do give danny a power edge and I’ll admit I have no idea how strong cholish’ chin is, and I think danny can KO anyone that doesn’t have a strong chin..
I think they’ll both test the striking on the feet in the 1st round… As danny tires I think cholish will look to take him down, and I think john’s offensive wrestling is better than his defensive wrestling (or at least I hope it is)… I think they’ll strike the first round, and the second and third john will increasingly look for the td and go for subs. I honestly think he’ll get the sub too, the dude has some beautifully raw natural grappling ability (his style reminds me of a smaller Weidman). While it has only happned a few times, danny’s toughest fights have been against wrestlers who picked up a smooth grappling game to compliment. Save for the bigger size of Volkmann, I think cholish is the best opponent that fits this bill and it’s the bill that gives Castillo problems. I also think cholish looked a good size bigger than danny at the weigh in I just watched.
This play is risky, because I’m assuming / self rationalizing much of the info in my analysis (as I really haven’t seen too much of cholish and am really making assumptions on a lot of this), but at evens I am totally down to play a couple lines on cholish and risk it.
Cholish 3rd round sub or UD.Comment -
Garza / Bermudez Thoughts - least confident pick I'm looking at...
Garza has overrated jitz technique (or at least I think he does, and these words can def come to haunt me after Saturday). Yes it was a beautiful flying triangle, but like the dude on mma mania said, I think jaboiun and paxio beat Garza 8 out of 10 times in rematches. On the feet I give Bermudez a technical and power advantage, while Garza could give him fits with the reach. I think denis has shown some nice footwork and movement on the feet and I think he has the stand up edge. A great chin too. Furthermore, on the show he really impressed in all his wins. His win to get into the house of Jimmie Rivera was the most impressive win of his carreer I think – and its sad people talk down on him from it. I think Jimmie is arguably better than any of denis’ past opponents and that win was incredible (on a side note Jimmie ‘EL TERROR’ needs to be in the ufc, dude is a stud). On the ground I think Bermudez is gonna make Garza hurt.
Yes, denis has been subbed 3 times, but let’s look at who subbed him guys - rinaldi who is a beast on the ground, and fickett who at ww (denis is at 145 now!!) has subbed some of the best guys in the game and is arguably one of the most underrated submission grapplers out there. I wouldn’t call diego a super stud on the ground, I think that sub was more a matter of denis beign overzealous and aggressive (man I was so pissed, I had nice coin on denis at +245 in that fight I believe and was so close to winning!!). The guys is really strong and compact, where Garza is lanky and thin. One might think garza’s long limbs might give denis trouble, but as long as denis doesn’t get overzealous and aggressive in garza’s guard, I think he can power out of any subs Garza throws up, especially when he’s dropping big bombs on his dome piece. His D1 skills and garza’s build will favor denis to get tds and smother on the ground. On the feet I think denis has the technique and power edge, therefore I do not think Garza’s reach is a game changer.
HOWEVER / EDIT, (adding this now after I’ve seen the weigh in) – Garza looked FREAKINNNN HUGEEEEE against Bermudez… I mean, he looked like a giant next him. I believe technique / skill trumps size, but I’ve been bit in the ass before for overlooking an opponent’s size… So now I’m not near as confident in this play, but if bermudez drops again in price, I’ll prob play a line and take a stab. Bermudez UD.Last edited by MMAbetMASTA; 05-04-12, 08:35 PM.Comment -
lolComment -
Sheesh, legs, appreciate your intensity but tl;dr.Comment
