UFC on FOX 3

**Libert1ne** · 05-05-12, 12:04 AM

Legz... The same Legz on tapology?

**DirtyX** · 05-05-12, 01:20 AM

Legz, nobody wants to read your long ass novels...

That being said, I did more research on Palhares and Belcher and I am liking Palhares more and more. I still think the line is off (Palhares should be at -250 max) but I might still hit it. Don't forget to keep your $$$ on a couple fights. Don't hit every single matchup, stack on the ones you like.

**Mimialex** · 05-05-12, 03:59 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

ha Belcher looks like he's trying to convince himself he's not scared!

Don't you really give Belc her a single chance?!

**Vaughany** · 05-05-12, 04:42 AM

Originally posted by Mimialex

Don't you really give Belc her a single chance?!

Think Belcher has a great chance, Palhares is always a risk due to his tendency to fu*k himself! Nontheless, getting Palhares by sub at Evens or better is good value IMO.

**Vaughany** · 05-05-12, 05:11 AM

**masjya** · 05-05-12, 05:53 AM

Originally posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

I wonder if they will add a big fight or go with the 3 Diaz/Miller Hendricks/Koscheck and Belcher/Palhares

Nate's reach/boxing could really be the difference maker in this one.
i think Miller pushes through those pitter patter punches and scores take down after take down. Nate isn't known for his tdd by any means. If Miller tries to stand and trade with Diaz its gonna be a long night im afraid. Its not impossible for miller to win that way, but I think he should be going for the take down with gnp. get up rinse and repeat. i doubt either of these two get finished in this fight. if it does happen its gonna be Diaz by sub or Miller by ko. both seem highly unlikely to me though.

**Vaughany** · 05-05-12, 05:55 AM

In the stand-up I think Miller's main focus will be landing leg-kicks to soften Diaz up and effect his mobility. Obviously doesnt have the range or fluidity tht Cerrone has with his leg kicks but Miller should still be able to land.

**Thor4140** · 05-05-12, 07:40 AM

Here is my thoughts on the Kos fight. I have said for three years that AKA needs a better boxing coach. Swick had all the talent in the world. Great speed but for some reason he can't throw straight punches and it is like nobody at AKA can teach him how to.

One by one their fighters are getting knocked out. U see KOS 2nd fight with GSP and he does the same exact thing with no improvement. Wide looping bombs. U see GSP gameplan and he picks him apart because he worked on his boxing. Kos left AKA but has he learned anything new? With Pierce it was the same thing. Looping overhand rights. I like Hendricks here and think he knocks Kos out. Technique wise Hendricks is the better boxer. The only time i ever saw Kos fight smart was against Daley to get his title fight. Diaz Miller. I was all over Nate in his fight with Cerrone. Couldn't believe those odds. I think Nate is one if not the best defensive fighter in the UFC. It is almost impossible to hit the guy and when u do he rolls with the punch perfectly. If he gets hit he has the chin to take it. His achilles heel has always been against wrestlers. Miller is a beast with a great all around game. He was steam rolling everyone until the Henderson fight. Their has been some talk that he was pretty sick against Henderson. If u remember that fight he had Henderson in all kinds of subs but couldn't finish them. He said he had no strength to pull them off. If the odds were even i would go Miller. That reach of Nates bothers me in this fight but i think if Nate doesn't pick Miller apart, Millers wrestling and toughness gets him the win. Palharris good luck with that one. I think Belcher can take this if it gets to round three. Belcher is just one of those tough tough guys who can take a punch. I can see this going back and forth like the Palhares Miller fight unless Palhares gets it to the ground early. I don't see Belcher folding up the tent like Mike Mass did against Palhares. Barry Lavar. Just can't lay those type of odds on that flake Barry. Terrific card in my opinion. PPV worthy

**blumpkin** · 05-05-12, 08:00 AM

Can someone breakdown garza/bermudez fight for me? Like Bermudez with his power and wrestling but garza could catch him in a sub is my big worry

**Vaughany** · 05-05-12, 08:44 AM

Originally posted by Thor4140

Here is my thoughts on the Kos fight. I have said for three years that AKA needs a better boxing coach. Swick had all the talent in the world. Great speed but for some reason he can't throw straight punches and it is like nobody at AKA can teach him how to.

One by one their fighters are getting knocked out. U see KOS 2nd fight with GSP and he does the same exact thing with no improvement. Wide looping bombs. U see GSP gameplan and he picks him apart because he worked on his boxing. Kos left AKA but has he learned anything new? With Pierce it was the same thing. Looping overhand rights. I like Hendricks here and think he knocks Kos out. Technique wise Hendricks is the better boxer. The only time i ever saw Kos fight smart was against Daley to get his title fight. Diaz Miller. I was all over Nate in his fight with Cerrone. Couldn't believe those odds. I think Nate is one if not the best defensive fighter in the UFC. It is almost impossible to hit the guy and when u do he rolls with the punch perfectly. If he gets hit he has the chin to take it. His achilles heel has always been against wrestlers. Miller is a beast with a great all around game. He was steam rolling everyone until the Henderson fight. Their has been some talk that he was pretty sick against Henderson. If u remember that fight he had Henderson in all kinds of subs but couldn't finish them. He said he had no strength to pull them off. If the odds were even i would go Miller. That reach of Nates bothers me in this fight but i think if Nate doesn't pick Miller apart, Millers wrestling and toughness gets him the win. Palharris good luck with that one. I think Belcher can take this if it gets to round three. Belcher is just one of those tough tough guys who can take a punch. I can see this going back and forth like the Palhares Miller fight unless Palhares gets it to the ground early. I don't see Belcher folding up the tent like Mike Mass did against Palhares. Barry Lavar. Just can't lay those type of odds on that flake Barry. Terrific card in my opinion. PPV worthy

I thought tht was one of Swicks strengths...he'd go rushing in with straight puunches at speed...isnt tht how he caught Saunders. But ur right, Koscheck's stand-up as never been something I've been impressed by. Relies on tht big overhand right which is fine against past-it fighters who have zero headmovement or speed like Trigg and Yoshida and even Hughes these days who doesnt have the chin he once had.

Miller was sick before the Henderson fight, and as u say he still had Henderson in some subs tht other fighters may of not got out of, and he also dropped Henderson in the second round with a counter right hook I think it was.

**Thor4140** · 05-05-12, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

I thought tht was one of Swicks strengths...he'd go rushing in with straight puunches at speed...isnt tht how he caught Saunders. But ur right, Koscheck's stand-up as never been something I've been impressed by. Relies on tht big overhand right which is fine against past-it fighters who have zero headmovement or speed like Trigg and Yoshida and even Hughes these days who doesnt have the chin he once had.

Miller was sick before the Henderson fight, and as u say he still had Henderson in some subs tht other fighters may of not got out of, and he also dropped Henderson in the second round with a counter right hook I think it was.

Vaughany, Yes with Swick but as soon as he gets hit or in any kind of trouble the punches start looping. It drives me nuts cause i thought he had what it takes to make a run at GSP. If u get film of him look at his last few losses, look how he loses. He gets in a fire fight and all that great speed is nullified cause he starts bringing everything wide. U look at some of the knock outs guys at AKA receive u wonder what is going on with their boxing coaches. Kos hasn't improved his boxing in the last three years. Cain got caught with a punch that i don't think the top 500 boxers would have been caught with. Dos Santos threw a long looping punch Cain should have saw a mile away. Then Swick which just drives me nuts. All that speed and nobody tells him to tighten things up unless he is a brick head like Kos. Now Fitch gets knocked out. U see this many guys getting knocked out in one camp u might want to change things up a bit.

**Vaughany** · 05-05-12, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by Thor4140

Vaughany, Yes with Swick but as soon as he gets hit or in any kind of trouble the punches start looping. It drives me nuts cause i thought he had what it takes to make a run at GSP. If u get film of him look at his last few losses, look how he loses. He gets in a fire fight and all that great speed is nullified cause he starts bringing everything wide. U look at some of the knock outs guys at AKA receive u wonder what is going on with their boxing coaches. Kos hasn't improved his boxing in the last three years. Cain got caught with a punch that i don't think the top 500 boxers would have been caught with. Dos Santos threw a long looping punch Cain should have saw a mile away. Then Swick which just drives me nuts. All that speed and nobody tells him to tighten things up unless he is a brick head like Kos. Now Fitch gets knocked out. U see this many guys getting knocked out in one camp u might want to change things up a bit.

yeah his last two performances were dreadful, to be fair his illness had begun before those fights and was fighting in a very weak state

**Kaladarus** · 05-05-12, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by blumpkin

Can someone breakdown garza/bermudez fight for me? Like Bermudez with his power and wrestling but garza could catch him in a sub is my big worry

There's a good breakdown on the previous page of this thread. Garza is a lot bigger and has a submission threat for sure. Not going crazy betting this fight, but I like Bermudez as well. Think he can grind out a decision here.

**Vaughany** · 05-05-12, 11:17 AM

I think Bermudez will finish...sub or tko

**Educ8d Degener8** · 05-05-12, 11:25 AM

My ticket:

Risk / to win / wager

1.50u / 1.43u / Palhares by sub -105
0.21u / 1.50u / Belcher by dec +700
Stylistically, I see this fight playing out in one of the above two scenarios. I see Toquinho getting his sub, or Belcher using a conservative in-out (stay the f*ck away from Palhares' grasp) points striking approach. I'll eat a big steaming turd if I'm wrong with my projections though...

0.50u / 0.27u / Barry -185
I f*cking hate betting Barry fights, but think he outclasses Lavar everywhere. If Barry weren't such a f*cking flake, I'd probably load up here... leg kicks Pat! Leggggg kicks.

0.50u / 0.62u / Koscheck +123
I think Johny's flash KO of Fitch has given him a bit of extra steam, simply playing some (perceived) value in Kos here, as I'm giving him a free pass on that Pierce fight. In his brain, I think he believes he's one more fight from sniffing a title shot, so expect a methodical gameplan from him here.

0.25u / 0.83u / Michael Johnson by dec +330
I hate Michael Johnson, but think he could conceivably eek out a decision here. Think Cucuy is a bit overvalued... but I'll be ok if Cucuy leaves MJ unconscious and I lose this.

0.50u / 6.77u / Miller -230, Barry -190, Kos by dec +240, Toquinho by sub -105
Nothing wrong with a play on Nate for Diaz backers, but I lean just slightly to Miller and had to put a main card degen parlay in play.

0.25u / 0.65u / Miller by dec +125, Dodson inside distance -165
Can't say I was overly impressed by the footage of Tim Elliot. 5 rounds is a lot of time for two crafty fighters like Miller and Nate to finish a fight, so I'm somewhat regretting that particular leg... but they are both equally tough, so whatever...

0.06u / 4.30u / Belcher dec +700, Barry by sub +444, Dodson inside distance -165
Because I like to piss money away.

note: in hindsight, I would have played Palhares inside distance -109 instead of by sub -105 to cover the chance he might transition from a sub into a hulking donkey kong punch TKO or some crazy sh*t.

Good Luck Fawkers

edit:
0.13u / 0.82u / Krauss +175, Bermudez -130, Dodson inside distance -180
Dodson ITD has moved from -155 to it's current -180 over the past 3 hours...

**NunyaBidness** · 05-05-12, 11:59 AM

Heh, love the new avatar.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 05-05-12, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Sheesh, legs, appreciate your intensity but tl;dr.

my bad inyabidness... Didn't mean to make your eyes sore or have you take a whole extra second to scroll down the page and get past my posts.

But yes, sorry for the long choppy read - I realize I could take the time to edit these and cut them in half - I know I'm repetitive and over-analytical. I just sit down and start typing everything that comes to my mind without taking the time to organize / edit it I guess and I type fast - its always been a problem of mine, especially withmy papers as a history student (I've actually been marked down a grade for writing too much!!). I'll do better next time, I promise cupcake

**MMAbetMASTA** · 05-05-12, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by Libert1ne

Legz... The same Legz on tapology?

no not me, never been a member on tapology, but thinking about joining (I always just played Loiosh's prediction contest in sherdog forum and now I play the sherdog fantasy prediction thing).

**MMAbetMASTA** · 05-05-12, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by DirtyX

Legz, nobody wants to read your long ass novels...

That being said, I did more research on Palhares and Belcher and I am liking Palhares more and more. I still think the line is off (Palhares should be at -250 max) but I might still hit it. Don't forget to keep your $$$ on a couple fights. Don't hit every single matchup, stack on the ones you like.

Shut up dirty balls, you're desperate to read my novels just like you've been blowing up my phone this morning desperate for my picks - LIL DOG...woke me up... "Waking up before noon is for all dem other sucka muthafuckas out there... pimps don't wake up before noon."

On a sserious note, thanks for the reminder, but that's harder said than done.

I'm liking a few plays and its really hard to decide which ones I like most / which to consolidate money on.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 05-05-12, 01:40 PM

My UFC on Fox 3 Plays

Ticket#:69463797 May 05 09:25 PM	INTERNET / -1	May 05 01:58 PM	MU	STRAIGHT BET [24403] TOTAL o4½-180 (DIAZ/MILLER TOT RDS vrs DIAZ/MILLER TOT RDS)	180 / 100
Ticket#:69466027 May 05 05:30 PM	INTERNET / -1	May 05 02:33 PM	MU	STRAIGHT BET [24433] J CHOLISH -110 (J CHOLISH vrs D CASTILLO)	220 / 200

-------------------------------------

Still waiting to get the toquinho line updated on my book, he's still at -280 where it looks like he is averaging around -240/250 on bestfight.. I'll def be playing him SU, just don't know how much.

Also prob gonna add a play on bermudez for a line, but again I'm waiting for the line to update (-160 right now on my book).

Wanna hit Nick Denis, but he's not even on my friggin' book yet and at this point I think he's a bit pricey.

Will either add a play on diaz and / or buy out of my over play on that fight depending on if I'm winning or losing at that point.

GL today fellas

**fosho14** · 05-05-12, 01:45 PM

Hey, man got no problem with the long paragraphs you contribute here. As long as it's relevant stuff that is describing how a fight will play out I actually think longer is better, gives a clearer picture, and adds more pieces to the puzzle. There are so many variables in these fights that sometimes there's no other way to touch on all of them besides making the write ups long. Keep it up.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 05-05-12, 01:56 PM

If you're gonna have super long write-ups, throw something like this in there to keep the eyes fresh...

**illmatick** · 05-05-12, 01:57 PM

decent numbers on ,,;

Krauss
Garza
Massenzio
Cholish
Diaz
Hendricks
Barry by dec
Mayweather inside the distance

Dodson/ Denis parlay

**MMAbetMASTA** · 05-05-12, 01:59 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

If you're gonna have super long write-ups, throw something like this in there to keep the eyes fresh...

Good idea man.

"Would you **** me?"

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-05-12, 02:37 PM

Damn Castilo is at +125

Gladly take that, and play both sides at positives

**MMAbetMASTA** · 05-05-12, 03:16 PM

Adding:

Ticket#:69474027
May 05 05:05 PM

INTERNET / -1

May 05 04:15 PM

MU

STRAIGHT BET
[24438] D BERMUDEZ -140
(P GARZA vrs D BERMUDEZ)

210 / 150

Not the best line, but I don't think its getting much better... this just updated on my book only a few minutes ago from -175 to -140... But I'll take it, I don't thinmk my book is gonna lower it anymore and get on par with best fight odds averages, unfortunately.

**Pew Pew** · 05-05-12, 03:38 PM

wow denis couldn't hang on for another second!?!?

**jacktheknife** · 05-05-12, 03:40 PM

Damnnnn, I was gonna parley that douche. Love ninja needs to smell his own shit.

**sweepem** · 05-05-12, 03:42 PM

wow he tapped with 1 second left in the round?

**zoo youk** · 05-05-12, 03:44 PM

what time the fights on fuel start?

**TheCalculator** · 05-05-12, 03:45 PM

Denis's corner should of been SCREAMING THEIR HEADS OFF for him NOT to tap and hang on for the bell. Better to PASS OUT from a choke than lose like that IMO.

**PunisherIND** · 05-05-12, 03:45 PM

5pm.

2 crazy back and forth fights so far. its going to be a tense night.

**Mr.Kitty** · 05-05-12, 03:46 PM

Denis got some holes to fill but dang, Delorme is a tough customer! Somehow he reminds me of Mr.Fantastic in the Fantastic4

**Pew Pew** · 05-05-12, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by TheCalculator

Denis's corner should of been SCREAMING THEIR HEADS OFF for him NOT to tap and hang on for the bell. Better to PASS OUT from a choke than lose like that IMO.

useless corner. they were quiet as fuuck too when denis hobbled the guy. denis should have been more aggressive

**MMAbetMASTA** · 05-05-12, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by TheCalculator

Denis's corner should of been SCREAMING THEIR HEADS OFF for him NOT to tap and hang on for the bell. Better to PASS OUT from a choke than lose like that IMO.

I'm sure they were man, hard to say when you're denis and have that choke slapped on like that, I'm sure you're sense of time goes out the window... In retrospect you know he's gonna be hating himself for tapping though so close to the end.

One of the best single rounds in a while, props to both men especially roland. Glad I didn't end up playing denis, props to delorme backers.